Is it too soon? Momentum.

[secretlyevil]

I have been beating my head against a brick wall aka bern bro. Oy vey, I knew better than to engage, I knew it!

[secretlyevil]

Mar 9, 2016 14:11:59 GMT -5 sparkythelawyer said:

Also, I'm not sure Bernie is adding value at this point. The longer he sticks around the more money HRC has to spend on a primary fight, which takes campaign money away that could have been used on the general election.

This is why I'm waiting to donate more to HRC. I want my money to go against whomever the R is.

ETA: I know, that's probably not the best reason.

[alleinesein]

Mar 9, 2016 12:39:18 GMT -5 ESF said:

Mar 9, 2016 12:20:18 GMT -5 spunbutterfly said:

What I don't get is don't people pay attention to the targets needed in each state to be viable? By any standard, it doesn't seem like Bernie can make up the 219 delegate difference without winning every single state by a large margin from here on out. I'm not sure where the optimism is coming from. The math doesn't seem like it could work out unless he wins each state now by 60+%.

They are counting on him picking up a massive number of votes in California and New York.

I don't think he'll win NY. He may have some appeal upstate, but she was a senator there, and Manhattan is very pro-Hillary for a lot of reasons. Gillibrand and Schumer will pull out all stops to get her the win.

California makes me nervous. I can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a Berner. I don't know what the mood is like in Southern California though.

I only know a few Bernie supporters in SoCal and a few of them might not even vote in the primary.  San Diego still leans republican but none of the R's I know have really come out in support of a candidate; they just bash Hillary non stop.  I'm sure that once we get closer to the primary more people will start coming out of the woodwork.

HRC has my vote in the primary but I am more concerned about local stuff (county board of supervisors) and our House rep.  The former Mayor of our 'town' is running for the county board and he effed up stuff in town and drove out a lot of businesses and I really don't want to him to screw up our little pocket of the county.  I wish my little corner of SD county wasn't so damn republican; we need some new blood running things down here!

[KateAggie]

Mar 9, 2016 12:03:40 GMT -5 fumbalina said:

Mar 9, 2016 11:54:36 GMT -5 downtoearth said:

Wait, your polling place changed after you got there? That is weird. I might email and report that to the TX elections commission or secretary of state.

Honestly it is the first time I voted in a primary so I do not know if it changed. I know the polling places where I grew up had different locations for Republican and Democratic primaries. The thing that made me angry was the fact there was a choice at the second place, which makes me think both polling places could have done so.

Did they tell you your polling place was different when they pulled up your identification? Or when you said you wanted a Dem ballot?

[NewOrleans]

::whispers:: Reeve is a full-blown Bernie bro. Right down to the media conspiracy theories.

[elleblue]

I'm in SoCal too and many of my local FB friends are Bernie supporters. Thankfully only a couple have veered into Bernie-bro territory. I will say that my POC friends, WOC friends, and LGBTQ, seem to support Hillary. The most passionate and vocal Bernie supporters are cis gendered white men and women, a few of which consider themselves Libertarian, which is an interesting crossover. They also are the people who I know tend to struggle a ton financially so I do get why Bernie's promises resonate a lot with them. And truly, I'm not unsympathetic, I want the same things - affordable healthcare, college, and for corporations to start paying their fair share in taxes, especially if they're shipping jobs overseas.

[sugarglider]

Mar 9, 2016 12:39:18 GMT -5 ESF said:

California makes me nervous. I can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a Berner. I don't know what the mood is like in Southern California though.

No Berners in my office, but as a management-side employment firm, that's to be expected. Mostly HRC or just anti-Trump. I definitely see a lot of Bernie signs out and about though. He's the trendy candidate. (Which is hilarious).

I do think there are a lot of Bernie Bros in SoCal, though. One of my vegan friends is very passionately pro-Bernie. The others...post pro-Bernie stuff but also pro-Hillary stuff, so it's hard to gauge.

I saw a statistic recently about the proportion of union workers, and I was surprised to see how high it was for CA (bc the employment laws make unionization virtually unnecessary). Of course, I'm sure SAG and IATSE are contributing to that, but Bernie's big with that demographic.

Overall, I think CA will be good for Bernie. The coast will have a lot of Bernie fans. Because, hippies. And inland probably will as well, bc he does well with blue collar workers.

[mominatrix]

I'm a little worried about WA.

Between the socialist lefty Seattleites, and the anti gobument eastern WA residents, my guess is Bernie will do really well.

Add in the whiteness.

Multiply by caucus (not a primary) so you have to plan on spending hours there, benefitting the deeply committed + young people without job/kid commitments.


My guess is Bernie will do well here.

[mominatrix]

Mar 9, 2016 16:08:52 GMT -5 mominatrix said:

I'm a little worried about WA.

Between the socialist lefty Seattleites, and the anti gobument eastern WA residents, my guess is Bernie will do really well.

Add in the whiteness.

Multiply by caucus (not a primary) so you have to plan on spending hours there, benefitting the deeply committed + young people without job/kid commitments.


My guess is Bernie will do well here.

I don't want you to think that I think Bernie is anti-govurnment... Just that I'd think he'd be a popular protest vote vs HRC, who'd be seen as a lifetime politician, entrenched, etc.

[elleblue]

Mar 9, 2016 16:07:06 GMT -5 sugarglider said:

Mar 9, 2016 12:39:18 GMT -5 ESF said:

California makes me nervous. I can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a Berner. I don't know what the mood is like in Southern California though.

No Berners in my office, but as a management-side employment firm, that's to be expected. Mostly HRC or just anti-Trump. I definitely see a lot of Bernie signs out and about though. He's the trendy candidate. (Which is hilarious).

I do think there are a lot of Bernie Bros in SoCal, though. One of my vegan friends is very passionately pro-Bernie. The others...post pro-Bernie stuff but also pro-Hillary stuff, so it's hard to gauge.

I saw a statistic recently about the proportion of union workers, and I was surprised to see how high it was for CA (bc the employment laws make unionization virtually unnecessary). Of course, I'm sure SAG and IATSE are contributing to that, but Bernie's big with that demographic.

Overall, I think CA will be good for Bernie. The coast will have a lot of Bernie fans. Because, hippies. And inland probably will as well, bc he does well with blue collar workers.

I'm hopeful that the Latino vote will swing to Hillary. 

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2016 16:08:52 GMT -5 mominatrix said:

I'm a little worried about WA.

Between the socialist lefty Seattleites, and the anti gobument eastern WA residents, my guess is Bernie will do really well.

Add in the whiteness.

Multiply by caucus (not a primary) so you have to plan on spending hours there, benefitting the deeply committed + young people without job/kid commitments.


My guess is Bernie will do well here.

I'll be caucusing in Eastern Washington for HRC on May 24! Probably with a <2 week old baby. 

But I agree. I'm worried. Are WA's delegates winner take all?

[fumbalina]

Mar 9, 2016 15:46:35 GMT -5 KateAggie said:

Mar 9, 2016 12:03:40 GMT -5 fumbalina said:

Honestly it is the first time I voted in a primary so I do not know if it changed. I know the polling places where I grew up had different locations for Republican and Democratic primaries. The thing that made me angry was the fact there was a choice at the second place, which makes me think both polling places could have done so.

Did they tell you your polling place was different when they pulled up your identification? Or when you said you wanted a Dem ballot?

It was when I wanted to vote in the Democratic primary. There are always people before the identification stage to make sure you do not accidentally walk into the school.

[ESF]

Mar 9, 2016 16:07:06 GMT -5 sugarglider said:

Mar 9, 2016 12:39:18 GMT -5 ESF said:

California makes me nervous. I can't swing a dead cat around here without hitting a Berner. I don't know what the mood is like in Southern California though.

No Berners in my office, but as a management-side employment firm, that's to be expected. Mostly HRC or just anti-Trump. I definitely see a lot of Bernie signs out and about though. He's the trendy candidate. (Which is hilarious).

I do think there are a lot of Bernie Bros in SoCal, though. One of my vegan friends is very passionately pro-Bernie. The others...post pro-Bernie stuff but also pro-Hillary stuff, so it's hard to gauge.

I saw a statistic recently about the proportion of union workers, and I was surprised to see how high it was for CA (bc the employment laws make unionization virtually unnecessary). Of course, I'm sure SAG and IATSE are contributing to that, but Bernie's big with that demographic.

Overall, I think CA will be good for Bernie. The coast will have a lot of Bernie fans. Because, hippies. And inland probably will as well, bc he does well with blue collar workers.

Yeah. I think he'll win.  

One wild card will be what happens in the Republican race. California has a lot of Republican voters who are really Republican in California only. Are Meg Whitman's supporters really going to vote for Trump or Cruz?   I could easily see tons of those people coming in to the Democratic primary and voting for Clinton.

[jeaniebueller]

I'm just really depressed right now, to be honest. I shudder to think of what I sanders/Trump debate would be like. I don't see that Bernie will be able to keep his cool against the nonsense that Trump throws at him. But, looking at the election results from Michigan, maybe there are a lot of people who would not vote for Hillary no matter what. UGh, the selection sucks.

[sugarglider]

Mar 9, 2016 19:07:54 GMT -5 ESF said:

Mar 9, 2016 16:07:06 GMT -5 sugarglider said:

No Berners in my office, but as a management-side employment firm, that's to be expected. Mostly HRC or just anti-Trump. I definitely see a lot of Bernie signs out and about though. He's the trendy candidate. (Which is hilarious).

I do think there are a lot of Bernie Bros in SoCal, though. One of my vegan friends is very passionately pro-Bernie. The others...post pro-Bernie stuff but also pro-Hillary stuff, so it's hard to gauge.

I saw a statistic recently about the proportion of union workers, and I was surprised to see how high it was for CA (bc the employment laws make unionization virtually unnecessary). Of course, I'm sure SAG and IATSE are contributing to that, but Bernie's big with that demographic.

Overall, I think CA will be good for Bernie. The coast will have a lot of Bernie fans. Because, hippies. And inland probably will as well, bc he does well with blue collar workers.

Yeah. I think he'll win.  

One wild card will be what happens in the Republican race. California has a lot of Republican voters who are really Republican in California only. Are Meg Whitman's supporters really going to vote for Trump or Cruz?   I could easily see tons of those people coming in to the Democratic primary and voting for Clinton.

Or we'll stay home. I already know this will be the first presidential election in which I don't vote R. And with the primary in June, I'm not sure there will be any races where it'll seem worth it to vote.

Thinking about the Hispanic vote, though, is important. According to WaPo, they prefer HRC 2-1 over Bernie. A plurality prefers Rubio (I think long ago it was Bush).

The Asian American population is an important voting block in CA, too. They're pretty small, proportionally, elsewhere, so I'm not sure as many people have paid attention to their leanings. I imagine they'd go for HRC and Kasich, if Kasich is still in. I think most will go to HRC.