Republicans feel betrayed by the GOP

[WanderingWinoZ]

talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-great-betrayal


There's a point I wanted to address about the GOP primaries and the Trump phenomenon that connects up with my piece this morning ("Lust for Destruction") and an earlier post on the GOP implosion and the concept of 'technical debt'. I was listening to a CPAC roundtable late last week (televised, I wasn't there) where the panelists, including The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes, discussed the basic division in the GOP today: between people who feel the party establishment has betrayed them and those who do not.



I could dig up polls that substantiate this. But there's abundant public opinion data confirming this division. The only surprise is how abruptly and destructively it's played out in this primary process. But it is worth unpacking just what this means. We can do a deep interpretation that places this sense of betrayal in the declining economic prospects for many middle class Republican voters or the broader climate of ethnic and cultural transformation in the country. But at least nominally it's not about either one of those things.



The betrayal is that the GOP promised it would destroy Obama's presidency (end it in 2012, defang it before and after) and turn back the various things he's done to damage the country and 'transform' it. But let's remember that Republicans played a high stakes game of brinksmanship in 2011, threatening to default on the national debt if President Obama didn't comply with various demands, an event totally without precedent in more than two centuries of American history. There was the Cruz government shutdown in 2013 to attempt to force yet another showdown over Obamacare. There was the successful effort to kill immigration reform in 2013. There's the current refusal to even receive the President's nomination to fill a Supreme Court vacancy, at the beginning of the fourth year of his term - again, totally unprecedented in American history. (We had serial rejections in the mid-19th century, never a refusal even to consider a nomination.) And these are only some of the most high stakes examples.



I've never been terribly impressed when people note Mitch McConnell's early declaration that his primary goal in opposition was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. That's almost always an opposition leader's goal - the difference was that he said it out loud and how far he proved willing to take it. But by almost any objective standard, congressional Republicans have taken a long list of either rare or totally unprecedented actions to fight President Obama. And they've accomplished a fair amount - thought largely in negative terms - by doing so. This is the context for half the part feeling "betrayed" by the party establishment that opted for a get along and go along with President Obama.



This was also, of course, the backdrop to the last intra-GOP blow-up before the primaries really got underway: the overthrow of Speaker John Boehner. He resigned somewhat on his own terms. But it was largely a matter of choosing his moment to jump. The move to overthrow Boehner was largely driven by the belief that with Boehner out of the way, the far right faction of the party (about half the GOP) would finally get a clean shot at Obama. No more pussy-footing around, no more betrayals, no more chickening out at the last minute just when the shutdown was starting to work.



You can say all sorts of things about these folks being crazy, or extremists or whatever else. But set aside all these evaluative or partisan interpretations and one thing is fairly clear in objective terms: a large portion of the GOP is not satisfied with what can realistically be achieved by conventional political means. One might even add here working with allies on the Supreme Court to come close to overturning Obamacare on what were extremely flimsy grounds. Yes, it's a bummer to take over the House and latter the Senate and still have Obamacare. But as long as you have a relatively popular President with a veto pen, that's life. You need to elect a president too.



As I noted at the end of last month, some of this is a product of "hate debt" and "nonsense debt" - building up wildly unrealistic expectations by over-promising and trading in an increasingly apocalyptic political rhetoric. But it's not all that. Something this powerful, as we've discussed, isn't just ginned up by political leaders. It runs much deeper. But again, the overreaching point is important: The narrative of 'betrayal' - at this volume and intensity - only makes sense if you are dealing with a chunk of the electorate with expectations that are deeply unrealistic in the context of conventional political action.



That is a volatile situation when you're talking about at least a quarter of the national electorate.



That gets you Trump. It also gets you Ted Cruz. And it may get you worse still.

[ECB]

I've never been terribly impressed when people note Mitch McConnell's early declaration that his primary goal in opposition was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. That's almost always an opposition leader's goal
 
Is it, though?  Until recent history, and really, Obama's presidency, I've never really felt THIS level of anger and effort to cut down the president.  Yes - the opposite party wants to get in THEIR candidate the next term, I get that.  But I feel what's happened these past 8 years is SO far beyond the scope of rationality, it's appalling. 

There has been NO effort to work together.  It's not about our country, it's about these 2 parties.

[sparrowsong]

Mar 13, 2016 8:11:35 GMT -5 ECB said:

I've never been terribly impressed when people note Mitch McConnell's early declaration that his primary goal in opposition was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. That's almost always an opposition leader's goal
 
Is it, though?  Until recent history, and really, Obama's presidency, I've never really felt THIS level of anger and effort to cut down the president.  Yes - the opposite party wants to get in THEIR candidate the next term, I get that.  But I feel what's happened these past 8 years is SO far beyond the scope of rationality, it's appalling. 

There has been NO effort to work together.  It's not about our country, it's about these 2 parties.

YeAh, they didn't just want Obama to be one term. They wanted him to fail. They wanted the country to fail. They were willing to make things worse for America to get their way. That is not leadership.

[litebright]

What they want is their own pet dictator, in other words. Which is what Trump is promising to be. They don't care if getting what they want is legal, is constitutional (LOFL), or if it is even moral -- and scorn what can be done through the existing political process/compromise.

Jesus. What will he do if he's president to deliver to these people? They really do expect a wall. They do expect him to call up owners of companies who have taken jobs overseas and put a 35% tariff on their goods effective immediately. They do expect him to ban Muslims from traveling here, and round up and deport all the illegal immigrants. They fully expect him to muzzle, intimidate and defy the press and love him when he does so.

And these people aren't going anywhere even if Trump doesn't win. And they've been electing obstructionists and institutional destroyers at the local level for years -- I saw it on my own school board, which luckily we were able to put back in the hands of more moderate people.

[isabel]

Mar 13, 2016 8:11:35 GMT -5 ECB said:

I've never been terribly impressed when people note Mitch McConnell's early declaration that his primary goal in opposition was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. That's almost always an opposition leader's goal
 
Is it, though?  Until recent history, and really, Obama's presidency, I've never really felt THIS level of anger and effort to cut down the president.  Yes - the opposite party wants to get in THEIR candidate the next term, I get that.  But I feel what's happened these past 8 years is SO far beyond the scope of rationality, it's appalling. 

There has been NO effort to work together.  It's not about our country, it's about these 2 parties.

DH made a comment during the last debate while Cruz was railing against Obama wondering why there's this level of vitriol and hatred for Obama. Maybe it's because I've followed this election cycle more closely than others, but neither of us can remember the opposition speaking quite so spitefully about the current president.

[eclaires]

I'm not surprised. Part of the reason people like me have had enough of the GOP is because they keep saying such bullshit things to pander to these ignorant fools. They know they aren't changing certain things but they still say it and try totally ridiculous methods to get it. So people think it's possible and reasonable and are validated by it. And now we have Trump to be their leader going even further.

[cville]

Mar 13, 2016 8:11:35 GMT -5 ECB said:

I've never been terribly impressed when people note Mitch McConnell's early declaration that his primary goal in opposition was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. That's almost always an opposition leader's goal
 
Is it, though?  Until recent history, and really, Obama's presidency, I've never really felt THIS level of anger and effort to cut down the president.  Yes - the opposite party wants to get in THEIR candidate the next term, I get that.  But I feel what's happened these past 8 years is SO far beyond the scope of rationality, it's appalling. 

There has been NO effort to work together.  It's not about our country, it's about these 2 parties.

I think each side always believed that they should do what it takes to get their policies in place because they believed their policies to be the best. But the erosion of civility and polarizing of political belief has transformed it from "we both love our country and have different ideas about what's best" to "I WILL CRUSH YOU AND DRINK THE BLOOD OF YOUR YOUNG."

Add in racism and now it's about destroying Obama the person as well as the president.

[sparrowsong]

Mar 13, 2016 12:53:55 GMT -5 isabel said:

Mar 13, 2016 8:11:35 GMT -5 ECB said:

I've never been terribly impressed when people note Mitch McConnell's early declaration that his primary goal in opposition was to ensure that President Obama was a one term president. That's almost always an opposition leader's goal
 
Is it, though?  Until recent history, and really, Obama's presidency, I've never really felt THIS level of anger and effort to cut down the president.  Yes - the opposite party wants to get in THEIR candidate the next term, I get that.  But I feel what's happened these past 8 years is SO far beyond the scope of rationality, it's appalling. 

There has been NO effort to work together.  It's not about our country, it's about these 2 parties.

DH made a comment during the last debate while Cruz was railing against Obama wondering why there's this level of vitriol and hatred for Obama. Maybe it's because I've followed this election cycle more closely than others, but neither of us can remember the opposition speaking quite so spitefully about the current president.

There was a lot of anger and hatred towards Bush. But the difference was that it was mostly due to the actions taken in starting the Iraq invasion, that so many of us knew was unjustified, unwise, and being deliberately mistied to 9/11 and bin laden.
I felt like when Obama took office there was still a great deAl of division and resentment already present. But the gop didn't even give Obama a chance. They set up to hate and disrespect him from the beginning just because they could. And for many, because of race.

[pitterwoo]

Mar 13, 2016 13:21:47 GMT -5 sparrowsong said:

Mar 13, 2016 12:53:55 GMT -5 isabel said:

DH made a comment during the last debate while Cruz was railing against Obama wondering why there's this level of vitriol and hatred for Obama. Maybe it's because I've followed this election cycle more closely than others, but neither of us can remember the opposition speaking quite so spitefully about the current president.

There was a lot of anger and hatred towards Bush. But the difference was that it was mostly due to the actions taken in starting the Iraq invasion, that so many of us knew was unjustified, unwise, and being deliberately mistied to 9/11 and bin laden.
I felt like when Obama took office there was still a great deAl of division and resentment already present. But the gop didn't even give Obama a chance. They set up to hate and disrespect him from the beginning just because they could. And for many, because of race.

There was, not a lot of it was truly out in the open though. First of all there wasn't the social media presence going on, so that just makes things a little different. But, remember when the Dixie Chicks dared to say they were embarrassed of the president and their careers were ruined? There was so much pushback on how you still have to respect the president and that once the election is over you have to fall into line. Those same superpatriots aren't calling for that since Obama came into office. They call him Odumbo or Osama and wait for Trump to save them.

[NewOrleans]

Does anyone else not care one bit what or how Republican people are feeling?

[elleblue]

Mar 13, 2016 14:16:24 GMT -5 pitterwoo said:

Mar 13, 2016 13:21:47 GMT -5 sparrowsong said:

There was a lot of anger and hatred towards Bush. But the difference was that it was mostly due to the actions taken in starting the Iraq invasion, that so many of us knew was unjustified, unwise, and being deliberately mistied to 9/11 and bin laden.
I felt like when Obama took office there was still a great deAl of division and resentment already present. But the gop didn't even give Obama a chance. They set up to hate and disrespect him from the beginning just because they could. And for many, because of race.

There was, not a lot of it was truly out in the open though. First of all there wasn't the social media presence going on, so that just makes things a little different. But, remember when the Dixie Chicks dared to say they were embarrassed of the president and their careers were ruined? There was so much pushback on how you still have to respect the president and that once the election is over you have to fall into line. Those same superpatriots aren't calling for that since Obama came into office. They call him Odumbo or Osama and wait for Trump to save them.

I have a genius former coworkers who has been calling him Nobama pretty much since he took office. Sometimes he mixes it up a little and throws an Obummer in there instead. 

[isabel]

Mar 13, 2016 14:29:34 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Does anyone else not care one bit what or how Republican people are feeling?

I actually do care. It's not ok that there's an entire group of people with more conservative views who don't have a candidate they can look to to create change. Rubio and Kasich are considered the two moderate candidates, but neither is actually all that moderate, especially on social issues. Further, neither is getting enough votes to become the nominee because the primaries favor die hard voters who push for the most extreme candidates. This speaks to another issue entirely of how we view our responsibilities of choosing leaders in this country. 

It's a problem that we have a two party system and one of those two parties no longer represents the group of people it is supposed to. I'm not a republican, but I have a problem with our political system falling apart like this. It effects everyone, including the democrats. 

I don't want to see a Republican Party that only represents the ideology of racist, bigoted white people. 

[NewOrleans]

Mar 13, 2016 16:40:05 GMT -5 isabel said:

Mar 13, 2016 14:29:34 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

Does anyone else not care one bit what or how Republican people are feeling?

I actually do care. It's not ok that there's an entire group of people with more conservative views who don't have a candidate they can look to to create change. Rubio and Kasich are considered the two moderate candidates, but neither is actually all that moderate, especially on social issues. Further, neither is getting enough votes to become the nominee because the primaries favor die hard voters who push for the most extreme candidates. This speaks to another issue entirely of how we view our responsibilities of choosing leaders in this country. 

It's a problem that we have a two party system and one of those two parties no longer represents the group of people it is supposed to. I'm not a republican, but I have a problem with our political system falling apart like this. It effects everyone, including the democrats. 

I don't want to see a Republican Party that only represents the ideology of racist, bigoted white people. 

conservatives had a hand in this situation.  They voted McCain despite his kowtowing to the Religious Right.  They voted Romney who revealed himself as a wink-wink-nudge-nudge racist, threw off all pretense of moderation, and conjured up Paul Ryan. These candidates were moving things pointedly right toward this moment.  In both elections there was a Libertarian candidate (2012 was particularly viable) and there is now, too.  I do not feel sorry for conservatives at present.  

[taratru]

I've honestly got nothing but a whooooole lot of "you made your bed" going on right now. I don't care that the people who wanted Obama's presidency to fail feel betrayed. You don't do anything to stop the crazy when you should have, this is what you get. Bummer.

[ECB]

I definitely feel they made their bed. No doubt. But the fact is that none of this is happening in a vacuum. We need to pay attention and we need to care to the degree that whatever is fueling this divide and fueling this anger isn't going anywhere. Regardless of who wins.

[cayl]

I didn't like Bush and was upset when he got reelected (well, when he "won" a second term), but I respected him as President. If, God forbid, Trump gets elected I won't be able to have the same begrudging respect. There will be none - only a feeling of terror and anxiety for what's to come.

I truly hope that we end up with Clinton, and that she wins by a landslide, because I think she's the most moderate person with a shot (barring something spectacular happening at the Republican Convention). I think that BOTH sides need to get the message that this country doesn't want or need far right OR left Presidents. You have the religious right and Trump crazies yelling on your right and the "Bernie Bros" on your left, and it's just terrifying. Don't get me wrong, I personally like Bernie's ideas in theory, but they're not realistic, and furthermore, trying to implement them will just further divide the country. If he gets the nod and a moderate somehow gets the nomination on the Republican side, I could see myself voting R.

What I wonder is how much of the country who doesn't identify with either party feels failed by the system. Sure, there's a percentage of Republicans who feel that their party isn't crazy enough (I need some of what they're smoking), but I would think a much larger number of people feel betrayed by the entire political system, and the fact that no one will work together to actually get shit done. I'd love to see a study done on that!

[Deleted]

Mar 13, 2016 21:55:12 GMT -5 cayl said:

What I wonder is how much of the country who doesn't identify with either party feels failed by the system. Sure, there's a percentage of Republicans who feel that their party isn't crazy enough (I need some of what they're smoking), but I would think a much larger number of people feel betrayed by the entire political system, and the fact that no one will work together to actually get shit done. I'd love to see a study done on that!

I fall here. I will be voting HRC with enthusiasm, but I haven't registered as a Democrat because... well, I can't put a finger on why. 

I want a political party that will stay out of my pocketbook and out of my uterus. Whoever lays down that plank first gets my loyalty. 

[downtoearth]

I feel like unrealistic expectations are running rampant all around us. But I also think a huge chunk of the problem comes from not anti-establishment, but anti-intellectualism being elevated to a platform in our country. Being ignorant and mad is looked at as a demographic now and the republicans have capitalized on this instead of standing up to would-be-voters who are ignorant and mad. I feel betrayed by the GOP leaders that they didn't stand up to this long ago.