CT city is most "normal" in America

[Vespasia]

This is particularly interesting to me because I grew up in the area and we're seriously considering a move to New Haven in a few years.

More charts in the article.


‘Normal America’ Is Not A Small Town Of White People

fivethirtyeight.com/features/normal-america-is-not-a-small-town-of-white-people/

Earlier this week, Jim VandeHei, a former executive editor of Politico, wrote an op-ed article for The Wall Street Journal accusing the Washington political establishment of being out of touch with “normal America.”

“Normal America is right that Establishment America has grown fat, lazy, conventional and deserving of radical disruption,” he wrote, citing his regular visits to Oshkosh, Wisconsin, and Lincoln, Maine, as his credentials of normality.

It’s a familiar accusation in a year in which most presidential candidates are trying to pretend they have nothing to do with the coastal elite, and after one — Ted Cruz — spent weeks attacking “New York values.” Even PBS, a standard-bearer of the media elite, recently featured a quiz designed to assess in-touchness with “mainstream American culture” with questions about fishing, pickup trucks and living in a small town.

But that sense that the normal America is out there somewhere in a hamlet where they can’t pronounce “Acela” is misplaced. In fact, it’s not in a small town at all.

I calculated how demographically similar each U.S. metropolitan area is to the U.S. overall, based on age, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity.1 The index equals 100 if a metro’s demographic mix were identical to that of the U.S. overall.2

By this measure, the metropolitan area that looks most like the U.S. is New Haven, Connecticut, followed by Tampa, Florida, and Hartford, Connecticut. All of the 10 large metros that are demographically most similar to the U.S. overall are in the Northeast, Midwest or center of the country, with the exception of Tampa. Two of them — New Haven and Philadelphia — are even on Amtrak’s Acela (that’s “uh-SELL-ah”) line. None is in the West, though Sacramento, California, comes close at No. 12.

The large metros least demographically similar to the U.S. include McAllen-Edinburg-Mission and El Paso, both in Texas, both of which are younger, less educated and more Latino than the U.S. overall, and Honolulu, where Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders together are the majority.

Oshkosh, by the way, clocks in with a score of 71, and Maine’s Penobscot County, where Lincoln is, has a score of 67: both places deserve less of a claim to “normal America” than the majority of large metros do. 3

Looking across metros of all sizes, the places that look most like America tend to be larger metros, though not the largest ones. The similarity index is highest, on average, for metros with between 1 million and 2 million people. The metros that look least like America are those with fewer than 100,000 people.

We all, of course, have our own notions of what real America looks like. Those notions might be based on our own nostalgia or our hopes for the future. If your image of the real America is a small town, you might be thinking of an America that no longer exists. I used the same method to measure which places in America today are most similar demographically to America in 1950, when the country was much whiter, younger and less-educated than today. Of course, nearly every place in the U.S. today looks more like 2014 America than 1950 America. But the large metros that today come closest to looking like 1950 America are Lancaster, Pennsylvania; Ogden and Provo, in Utah; and several in the Midwest and South.

But the places that look today most like 1950 America are not large metros but rather smaller metros and rural areas. Looking across all of America, including the rural areas, the regions that today look most demographically similar to 1950 America are the portion of eastern Ohio around the towns of Cambridge and Coshocton and the Cumberland Valley district in southeastern Kentucky.

These misconceptions affect our politics: an outdated view of “normal America” is baked into the presidential election process. Iowa and New Hampshire, which vote first in the primary season and therefore have disproportionate influence, rank 37th and 41st, respectively, in their similarity to the U.S. overall. The states that look demographically most similar to America are Illinois and New York, followed by New Jersey, Connecticut and Virginia. (Downstate Illinois and upstate New York are worlds apart from Chicago and New York City, as native Rochesterians like me know well.) The states that look least like America are Hawaii, New Mexico, West Virginia, Maine and Vermont, along with the District of Columbia.

STATE SIMILARITY TO U.S. OVERALL

1 Illinois 95.8

2 New York 92.2

3 New Jersey 91.5

4 Connecticut 90.7

5 Virginia 87.6

6 Florida 87.5

7 North Carolina 87.4

8 Delaware 86.7

9 Rhode Island 86.3

10 Massachusetts 85.5

States with demographics most like America today

Maximum similarity score is 100
SOURCE: AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY

Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s places of honor would make more sense if we were electing a president in the 1950s. They rank 11th and 20th, respectively, in how similar their demographics today are to those of 1950 America, though Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana are the states whose demographics today look most like 1950 America.

There are lots of reasons to care deeply about places that are demographically different from today’s America: Some of those places may turn out to be bellwethers for a future America that will be older, more educated and more racially and ethnically diverse than today; and some of those places are especially deserving of public attention and investment because they worse off than most other places.

But if you’re trying to get outside of your bubble and get in touch with “normal America,” skip the small towns of your actual or imagined past and instead start with New Haven or Tampa.


CORRECTION (7:10 p.m., April 28): An earlier version of this article omitted Tampa when describing the regions of the country containing metro areas demographically similar to the U.S. overall.

[LoveTrains]

They do have delicious pizza there.

[curbsideprophet]

Interesting. Wish I could search for a city's score.

[irishbride2]

See, you all make fun of florida but we are "normal"

[Vespasia]

I would like to point out that Clinton won all but one of the top 10 most representative states.

[isabel]

Jun 6, 2016 6:24:37 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

I would like to point out that Clinton won all but one of the top 10 most representative states.

That's actually pretty fascinating. Very cool.

[calamity]

New Haven is great!!

Except traffic. I hate I95 with a passion 

[Deleted]

Jun 6, 2016 8:49:11 GMT -5 calamity said:

New Haven is great!!

Except traffic. I hate I95 with a passion 

I had to take my son to see a doctor at Yale and had to get off an exit while TWO lanes of traffic were merging on. Who the hell designed that?!?!

I also wonder that every time I have to merge onto the highway from the left. Who thought merging into the fast lane was a good plan??

[LoveTrains]

Jun 6, 2016 6:24:37 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

I would like to point out that Clinton won all but one of the top 10 most representative states.

And I'm convinced that she would have won if the lines hadn't been so long and effed up. TBH I was really surprised Bernie won RI. 

[2curlydogs]

Jun 6, 2016 6:24:37 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

I would like to point out that Clinton won all but one of the top 10 most representative states.

New Jersey hasn't voted yet. You go outside, turn around 3 times and spit.

[sushi]

Jun 6, 2016 5:59:01 GMT -5 irishbride2 said:

See, you all make fun of florida but we are "normal"

Representative, not normal

Gah, I really hate going back "home." Even if it sparks some nostalgia in me.

[fortnightlily]

The fetishization of the "heartland" and the rejection of the Northeast as not "real America" has always pissed me off. Doesn't get any more American than the original thirteen colonies.

America's identity belongs to its people, who are often concentrated on the coasts and major cities.

[LoveTrains]

Jun 6, 2016 10:37:17 GMT -5 fortnightlily said:

The fetishization of the "heartland" and the rejection of the Northeast as not "real America" has always pissed me off. Doesn't get any more American than the original thirteen colonies.

America's identity belongs to its people, who are often concentrated on the coasts and major cities.

[wawa]

Jun 6, 2016 8:59:21 GMT -5 @bugginnine said:

Jun 6, 2016 8:49:11 GMT -5 calamity said:

New Haven is great!!

Except traffic. I hate I95 with a passion 

I had to take my son to see a doctor at Yale and had to get off an exit while TWO lanes of traffic were merging on. Who the hell designed that?!?!

I also wonder that every time I have to merge onto the highway from the left. Who thought merging into the fast lane was a good plan??

FWIW, I'm pretty confident nobody thought that was a good plan.  It was likely just the best idea they could come up with given whatever the physical constraints in that area are.  But I'm now looking at 95 through new haven and...man...that 95/91 interchange is a whole mess of spaghetti isn't it?  It's under construction in the aerial on google and I can't even figure out what goes where.

[LoveTrains]

Jun 6, 2016 10:53:29 GMT -5 wawa said:

Jun 6, 2016 8:59:21 GMT -5 @bugginnine said:

I had to take my son to see a doctor at Yale and had to get off an exit while TWO lanes of traffic were merging on. Who the hell designed that?!?!

I also wonder that every time I have to merge onto the highway from the left. Who thought merging into the fast lane was a good plan??

FWIW, I'm pretty confident nobody thought that was a good plan.  It was likely just the best idea they could come up with given whatever the physical constraints in that area are.  But I'm now looking at 95 through new haven and...man...that 95/91 interchange is a whole mess of spaghetti isn't it?  It's under construction in the aerial on google and I can't even figure out what goes where.

It's been under construction for like 10 years. The issue is that 91 starts/ends at that 95 interchange.

[Vespasia]

wawa, the spaghetti is actually an improvement sadly.

We drove through New Haven around 10am one day recently and there was absolutely no back up. I almost fainted from the shock!

[epphd]

I lived in New Haven from 2003-2008. I have, um, feelings about it. very, very strong feelings. Real estate is a hell of a deal. The house we bought in 2005 for $204K sold for $229K in 2008; and is now valued at $175K. So that... nice. Of course we paid more than $5K in property taxes annually.

Yeah, I'll stop there.

Maybe I'm not normal enough

[OscarQ]

Jun 6, 2016 9:53:41 GMT -5 2curlydogs said:

Jun 6, 2016 6:24:37 GMT -5 Vespasia said:

I would like to point out that Clinton won all but one of the top 10 most representative states.

New Jersey hasn't voted yet. You go outside, turn around 3 times and spit.

It's NJ - so only turn right - otherwise you have to do three jug handles and spit.

[irishbride2]

Jun 6, 2016 12:50:00 GMT -5 cubed said:

I grew up in New Haven and it was FAR more diverse and intermingled and progressive than downtown Tampa, where I lived as an adult for 3+ years. Diverse =/= interaction IMO.

I did laugh a bit at Tampa. St. Pete is much more progressive. Over the bridge, its South Tampa vs the others. 

[cattledogkisses]

*

[erbear]

I went to college in New Haven and going there from super white, country Delaware (I did not live in the representative part, apparently!) was a shock. In a good way.

The neighborhood I live in in Philadelphia is a super cool mix of people of different backgrounds, races, etc. We call our neighborhood bar the most diverse place in America.

[erbear]

Jun 6, 2016 8:59:21 GMT -5 @bugginnine said:

Jun 6, 2016 8:49:11 GMT -5 calamity said:

New Haven is great!!

Except traffic. I hate I95 with a passion 

I had to take my son to see a doctor at Yale and had to get off an exit while TWO lanes of traffic were merging on. Who the hell designed that?!?!

I also wonder that every time I have to merge onto the highway from the left. Who thought merging into the fast lane was a good plan??

Philadelphia. #fullcircle