538 on the Senate

[aurora]

We haven't talked about the Senate as much recently with all the Presidential discussion. Here is 538's forecast:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/

Unfortunately none of the graphics are C&P-able but the article says the D's are 58% likely to gain control of the Senate.

[secretlyevil]

I wish we had a stronger candidate against Marco Rubio. The campaigns are pretty vicious on both sides. This gives me hope to see we have better campaigns in other states.

[OscarQ]

Majority is great but isn't 60 seats the new majority with the filibuster rules?

[shortstax]

Poor Strickland. Under 9%? yikes.

[silva]

ha! Ron Johnson has a 6.4% chance at winning! SUCK IT, LOSER!

[Deleted]

Sept 20, 2016 12:04:07 GMT -5 secretlyevil said:

I wish we had a stronger candidate against Marco Rubio. The campaigns are pretty vicious on both sides. This gives me hope to see we have better campaigns in other states.

Yeah, I think Florida is the state I care least about the ads winning. Not because I like Rubio but just because Murphy is such a shitty candidate.

[badgergrl]

Sept 20, 2016 12:22:07 GMT -5 silva said:

ha! Ron Johnson has a 6.4% chance at winning! SUCK IT, LOSER!

I hope that is true. The other day I got "polled" by club for growth. The questions were things like "under Russ feingold the deficit went up x. During that time he voted for the stimulus package. Would you still support feingold knowing that?"

I got super hot and was like it was the war not the stimulus that caused the deficit increase and he voted against that.

Ugh.

[ufcasey]

I seriously can't believe that out of the entire state, Patrick Murphy was the best democrat to run against Rubio. I'll still vote for him because Rubio is unredeemable in my book, but ugh.

[sonrisa]

Sept 20, 2016 12:07:59 GMT -5 OscarQ said:

Majority is great but isn't 60 seats the new majority with the filibuster rules?

Minority and Majority still matter. Otherwise we wouldn't hear nearly so much about human turtle, Mitch McConnell. It determines who chairs the various committees as well.

Voting is only one step in the process. A crucial one, sure, but so is determining which bills actually reach the floor for a vote and what those bills look like.

[Cicero]

Sept 20, 2016 12:19:07 GMT -5 shortstax said:

Poor Strickland. Under 9%? yikes.

Not that this is his only problem but he's got no cash.  They just cancelled tv ads in 3/4 of the state through mid October.