Feel good post - 538 forecast

[Deleted]

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now

I check this every morning first thing.  It's very soothing today.  In Nate Silver I trust.

[karinothing]

Nice! I really want some traditionally red states to go blue. Come on AZ I am pulling for you!

[JLV]

33 days. 33 days.

Come on!!!

[OscarQ]

That's quite a swing in Maine's 2nd. From +4 for Dumpster Fire Sep 21-22 to +3 for HRC Oct 1-2! Odd that they released them both on the same day.

[kershnic]

That would be an amazing map. But 33 days is a long freaking time in the 24 hour news cycle.

[JLV]

Oct 6, 2016 8:15:19 GMT -5 kershnic said:

That would be an amazing map. But 33 days is a long freaking time in the 24 hour news cycle.

Shhhhhh. 

[Deleted]

Oct 6, 2016 8:15:19 GMT -5 kershnic said:

That would be an amazing map. But 33 days is a long freaking time in the 24 hour news cycle.

I agree, but I also like to pretend the election is tomorrow and this is how it will go.

[kershnic]

Oct 6, 2016 8:25:37 GMT -5 @silver said:

Oct 6, 2016 8:15:19 GMT -5 kershnic said:

That would be an amazing map. But 33 days is a long freaking time in the 24 hour news cycle.

I agree, but I also like to pretend the election is tomorrow and this is how it will go.

I understand the need to be optimistic in the face of such a dire threat. But I'm actually scared of a forecast like this sticking for a month and depressing voter turnout.

[penguingrrl]

I'm optimistic. Although I'' concerned the hurricane aftermath could become a wildcard on changing FLs vote.

[sm12]

Oct 6, 2016 8:15:19 GMT -5 kershnic said:

That would be an amazing map. But 33 days is a long freaking time in the 24 hour news cycle.

Seriously. That "How the odds have changed" graph makes me nervous.  Only a week or so ago, they were so close. 
C'mon people, how can you be so flaky?  About something so important? 

[kershnic]

Oct 6, 2016 8:35:02 GMT -5 penguingrrl said:

I'm optimistic. Although I'' concerned the hurricane aftermath could become a wildcard on changing FLs vote.

I hope this is all a bunch of hype and the storm does not pan out, but if it does I think HRC can play her cards right to say 'do you really trust DT to come through for you in an emergency? Just like W did for the black residents of New Orleans?'

[penguingrrl]

Oct 6, 2016 8:42:38 GMT -5 kershnic said:

Oct 6, 2016 8:35:02 GMT -5 penguingrrl said:

I'm optimistic. Although I'' concerned the hurricane aftermath could become a wildcard on changing FLs vote.

I hope this is all a bunch of hype and the storm does not pan out, but if it does I think HRC can play her cards right to say 'do you really trust DT to come through for you in an emergency? Just like W did for the black residents of New Orleans?'

I definitely hope it isn't as bad as they're fearing. But things like this have definitely impacted people's votes and it's hard to assure people without looking like you're using tragedy for political gain.

[kershnic]

Oct 6, 2016 8:44:15 GMT -5 penguingrrl said:

Oct 6, 2016 8:42:38 GMT -5 kershnic said:

I hope this is all a bunch of hype and the storm does not pan out, but if it does I think HRC can play her cards right to say 'do you really trust DT to come through for you in an emergency? Just like W did for the black residents of New Orleans?'

I definitely hope it isn't as bad as they're fearing. But things like this have definitely impacted people's votes and it's hard to assure people without looking like you're using tragedy for political gain.

Yeah, that's always a risk for both sides. But I think there are good ways to address it and I am more optimistic that HRC will execute it gracefully than DT. If people are displaced for the election though that could have an impact on turnout.

[luckyval]

I told my friend who was freaking out about Trump to keep checking 538, and then Clinton dipped into the 50s. This is extremely encouraging. I love seeing NC back in the blue!

[tres3]

remember Brexit?

[froggy76]

I'm still worried. 33 days is a long time and a lot of those states are way too close for comfort. It only takes 3 or 4 to flip and Trump wins.

[Deleted]

I see the gap widening in PA, I'm optimistic that we're going to go deeper blue as we get closer to the election. AZ is also on an interesting borderline.

[OscarQ]

Oct 6, 2016 8:47:22 GMT -5 luckyval said:

I told my friend who was freaking out about Trump to keep checking 538, and then Clinton dipped into the 50s. This is extremely encouraging. I love seeing NC back in the blue!

Keeping It 1600 said if they call NC for HRC, we can all go to sleep.

538 needs an app.  I need alerts for this sent to my phone.  I want to see it change with every poll that hits.  Nate Silver get on this already!  I'll pay $3.99 for the app.  Heck, I'd pay $9.99 for it.

33 days is too long.  My blood pressure can't take 33 days of this nonsense.

[eclaires]

I'll be interested to see the results in some bright red states, like the one I live in. I'm pretty sure there is virtually no polling and I know it will be called for Trump as soon as the polls close, but I'll be interested to see the breakdown of actual votes compared to previous years. I know so many people who are voting for HRC that previously voted R and a lot of Rs who usually vote R but aren't going to vote for president at all (I don't really care if they vote - TN's electoral votes are unimportant). I also am aware of some Trump supporters. But it's a weird vibe around here these days so I'm looking forward to seeing the actual breakdown. I don't think it's near enough to flip the state or even be close but I want to see how it stacks up to 2008 and 2012, just out of curiosity. I think the GOP will probably be looking at that too post election.

[SwimDeep]

Oct 6, 2016 8:42:00 GMT -5 sm12 said:

Oct 6, 2016 8:15:19 GMT -5 kershnic said:

That would be an amazing map. But 33 days is a long freaking time in the 24 hour news cycle.

Seriously. That "How the odds have changed" graph makes me nervous.  Only a week or so ago, they were so close. 
C'mon people, how can you be so flaky?  About something so important? 

This is why I don't watch the polls. Especially in the digitized world we live in today, everything and everyone changes SO quickly. Someone followed by 33 million people on twitter can tweet something profound and BAM - the odds change again.
Makes my head spin

[hopecounts]

Oct 6, 2016 8:53:08 GMT -5 froggy76 said:

I'm still worried. 33 days is a long time and a lot of those states are way too close for comfort. It only takes 3 or 4 to flip and Trump wins.

Yes but I think that is why HRC has a very distinct control the news cycle and narrative plan in place and has since debate 1.
The Machado stuff, FHTK getting Pence on not defending/denying stuff Trump said/etc they are focused not on a single blow but on keeping the news on their side and killing Trump with a thousand little cuts over the next 33 days and not giving him a chance to recoup.
She knows her biggest risk is a bad 24 hr cycle so they have plans in place to mitigate that.
It's been amazingly well done so far.
I am not taking anything for granted (pneumonia drama for example) but I think they have plans in place.
Maybe they learned from that and put it together, maybe they have always planned this but so far they are killing it since Debate 1 so I am hopeful if nervous.

[eclaires]

I think there was always going to be some impact from the first debate, regardless of what it looked like going in. First, it was the only time we've really seen both candidates together, side by side. Second, it was the most watched debate ever. So it was going to impact the polls, no matter what.

[kershnic]

I can't find anything.... has 538 written anything on the simularities or differences between the current US presidential election polling and the inaccurate polling for Brexit and in Colombia?

[AAM2012]

Oct 6, 2016 7:58:54 GMT -5 karinothing said:

Nice! I really want some traditionally red states to go blue. Come on AZ I am pulling for you!

I have 2 signs in the front window and will be putting 2 more in the yard this weekend.

I still have 2 neighbors with DT signs and "Hillary for prison" but I'm assuming they're just too embarrassed to take them down after several months of them being up.

[karinothing]

Oct 6, 2016 9:51:33 GMT -5 kershnic said:

I can't find anything.... has 538 written anything on the simularities or differences between the current US presidential election polling and the inaccurate polling for Brexit and in Colombia?

I haven't seen an official write up on this but I know that polling and campaigns in the US and in the UK (and really anywhere outside the US) are two very different beasts. DH has consulted on a number of international campaigns and he has noted that they have an incredible lack of infastructure (mentioning they didn't even now how to target specific voters). I guess I am saying the US has this game down so I am not personally afraid that the polls are that out of line with actual results. 

[eclaires]

Oct 6, 2016 9:51:33 GMT -5 kershnic said:

I can't find anything.... has 538 written anything on the simularities or differences between the current US presidential election polling and the inaccurate polling for Brexit and in Colombia?

I haven't seen anything from 538 but I am pretty sure I've read several articles pointing out the differences in polling and Brexit and why it's not a good comparison.

[compassrose]

This is the best part of my day.

[leeba25]

This definitely helps me breathe more easily. I do still worry about there being 33 more 24-hour news cycles left, but I have lots of hope.