FGF: USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll

[OscarQ]

For whatever reason the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll has a strong Trump house effect.  They do a daily tracker national poll that has had Trump in the lead since Sept 12th.  Even today their latest has Trump at +3.  But 538 accounts of the house effect in their 538 magic and they adjusted that to a +2 for Clinton today.


projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/#plus

[CallingAllAngels]

What is up with this poll? I hate seeing on the 528 update list because it's always so heavily slanted toward Trump. It looks like it was +5/6 Trump last week, so it's trending in the right direction.

[katietornado]

LOLOL

They just started with a group of people, and it so happened that those people lean Trump. They survey those same people to see how they change throughout the election season. So say baseline is +5 Trump. If everything else swings to +3 Clinton, this one would still be +2 Trump. Make sense?

So the fact that this has gone from heavily Trump to +2 Clinton is HILARIOUS. The Trump camp LOOOOVES to trot this one out, esp Lewandowski. The people on CNN always have to say 'that's a tracking poll and it doesn't meet our standards.'

[katietornado]

More on this poll here: www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-polling-differences-20160809-snap-story.html