AHCA Talk 6/7

[bowies]

[vicky]

Ugh.

[aurora]

So does that mean they're abandoning the Senate version?

[pitta12]

I think it's just a pressure tactic, to say "either come up with a new bill by this date or face a vote on the House bill." McConnell is trying to force a vote and scaring people about what will happen if they fail to repeal.

[seeyalater52]

They are planning to send a draft bill to CBO for scoring on Friday. This Friday. And hoping to get a score by the 16th (may not be realistic.) That means a) they are only sort of bluffing and b) that the bill will be largely the same as the House bill with minor/cosmetic changes. We're hearing that they'll take pre-ex out but leave the EHB waivers in, all the Medicaid cuts will stay in but they may strike the block grants and leave just per capita caps and possibly fiddle with the growth rate a little but nothing to make it better.

On the one hand yeah McConnell is bluffing and holding on to hope that he can force the caucus in line with AHCA lite and get this wrapped up before July 4th recess. They're talking about a late June vote so they literally do not have time to draft a new bill and if they thought they could come to consensus they would just do it. But they don't.

On the other hand this is a dangerous game of chicken to play. There's a hard stop with August recess so there's only so much they can push it off now. The next couple of weeks leading up to when they hope to vote are really important but of course everyone is tired and probably falling into the trap of thinking they're all talk and no game. Personally I'd be shocked if things don't move pretty quickly once a draft gets to CBO but who really knows.

Also today sucked. We are really back in it again and I feel like a zombie. Send hair pats.

[aurora]

seeyalater52 thanks for continuing to fight and also update us here.

[bowies]

Thanks for all you do seeyalater52. All the wine for you and your coworkers.

[pitta12]

Thread:

[seeyalater52]

As always, Andy is spot on.

Also Ohio peeps, probably the number 1 most impactful thing that could happen in this fight PERIOD is if Portman drops his whisper campaign that he'd fall in line with Medicaid cuts in exchange for an opioid $ pot. This has the potential to pick off multiple senators (Capito and Collins in particular) and probably collapse the whole resistance to the bill in one neat swoop. Call Portman and demand no cuts to Medicaid. Call Kasich and tell him to tell Portman unequivocally no cuts to Medicaid. Medicaid serves an absurd number of people struggling with substance misuse (opioids and otherwise) in Ohio and across the country. Firstly there is no possible way to offset the loss of Medicaid dollars being proposed. Second, the opioid epidemic is on an upswing not a downswing, so we really really do not want to be setting baselines for a per capita cap in the current year based on current spending. That's how we will end up without the funding and tools needed in the health system to keep fighting back when it gets even worse, which it likely will. Where is Ohio going to get the money to deal with this?? In the state budget? From taxpayers? Where does anyone think the money to offset these costs is going to come from?

So do that please if you can.

[seeyalater52]

I am drinking so much wine so if that is riddled in typos I apologize.

[biscoffcookies]

All the stuff that's been happening and will happen -particularly Comey/Russia stuff but also the stuff with Qatar, the European attacks, Iran, etc - it's over saturating the news cycle and so this isn't getting attention. Do people don't know it's happening, certainly not as quickly as it is likely to, and then of course the Senate is being shady by refusing to release details/ideas that might spur opposition. So the Senate will not get the pressure that the House did and that might make them pause and will thus feel emboldened to pass this knowing eyes are not on them.

Honestly it's feeling no win though. Even if this doesn't get through Trump and the GOP have sabotaged the market so badly I am not sure it can be fixed (at least not with a fundamental change from the GOP in how they view and act toward the ACA that I don't see happening - they are never ever going to be like, yes let's firmly commit to CSRs and stop our legal challenges and strengthen the ACA which requires supporting things like regs and taxes we hate). So I feel like people who need the ACA will be screwed either by the AHCA or by not being able to get plans (because insurers pulled out) or afford them (because of premium jumps).

[rupertpenny]

I read this article yesterday and it made me a tiny bit optimistic: www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/6/15741986/senate-republicans-obamacare-repeal-vote-show-em-a-body

That didn't last long 

[NewOrleans]

Jun 7, 2017 18:59:34 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

As always, Andy is spot on.

Also Ohio peeps, probably the number 1 most impactful thing that could happen in this fight PERIOD is if Portman drops his whisper campaign that he'd fall in line with Medicaid cuts in exchange for an opioid $ pot. This has the potential to pick off multiple senators (Capito and Collins in particular) and probably collapse the whole resistance to the bill in one neat swoop. Call Portman and demand no cuts to Medicaid. Call Kasich and tell him to tell Portman unequivocally no cuts to Medicaid. Medicaid serves an absurd number of people struggling with substance misuse (opioids and otherwise) in Ohio and across the country. Firstly there is no possible way to offset the loss of Medicaid dollars being proposed. Second, the opioid epidemic is on an upswing not a downswing, so we really really do not want to be setting baselines for a per capita cap in the current year based on current spending. That's how we will end up without the funding and tools needed in the health system to keep fighting back when it gets even worse, which it likely will. Where is Ohio going to get the money to deal with this?? In the state budget? From taxpayers? Where does anyone think the money to offset these costs is going to come from?

So do that please if you can.

darnkatz

[bowies]

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2017 15:00:54 GMT -5 bowies said:

And these supposed moderates are from two of the states hit hardest by the opioid epidemic. FUCKERS.

[bowies]

Looks like Heller has also come out in favor of a 7-year phaseout.

If you live in NV, OH, or WV you know what to do.

[curbsideprophet]

Good thread with tips. One key point is he says calls have died down/returned to normal levels.

[seeyalater52]

These people are full of shit. They are getting a bajillion calls a day and definitely nowhere near normal levels. More calls will be generated once there is a CBO score.

Definitely echo Bowies that NV, OH, and WV are it right now. Call call call. Opioid epidemic messages, rural hospital closings, a demand that they hold public hearings before proceeding with a vote, and the impact on older adults and long term services are the critical themes for these states.

[seeyalater52]

The code red alert is no joke. We are all Topher Spiro today. We are losing and fast if something big doesn't shift.

[cville]

I'm calling multiple times a day. I don't have hopes for the shitbags I'm calling, but I'm doing it.

[bowies]

Can someone cross post on ML? Assuming there's at least a large OH contingent there.

[pitta12]

The Senate Democrats have a "Fight Wealthcare" page up (yes Jon Favreau is pleased) which has interactive info, videos, and takes donations.

fightwealthcare.com/

[bowies]

[mrhanky]

Jun 8, 2017 15:00:54 GMT -5 bowies said:

Capito is not a moderate by any definition of that word.

[pitta12]

[seeyalater52]

Jun 8, 2017 18:43:05 GMT -5 mrhanky said:

Jun 8, 2017 15:00:54 GMT -5 bowies said:

Capito is not a moderate by any definition of that word.

It's shorthand for "not completely off the deep end" at this point. If you're a Republican and to the left of McCain you're essentially a moderate.

[mskitkat]

Jun 7, 2017 18:59:34 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

As always, Andy is spot on.

Also Ohio peeps, probably the number 1 most impactful thing that could happen in this fight PERIOD is if Portman drops his whisper campaign that he'd fall in line with Medicaid cuts in exchange for an opioid $ pot. This has the potential to pick off multiple senators (Capito and Collins in particular) and probably collapse the whole resistance to the bill in one neat swoop. Call Portman and demand no cuts to Medicaid. Call Kasich and tell him to tell Portman unequivocally no cuts to Medicaid. Medicaid serves an absurd number of people struggling with substance misuse (opioids and otherwise) in Ohio and across the country. Firstly there is no possible way to offset the loss of Medicaid dollars being proposed. Second, the opioid epidemic is on an upswing not a downswing, so we really really do not want to be setting baselines for a per capita cap in the current year based on current spending. That's how we will end up without the funding and tools needed in the health system to keep fighting back when it gets even worse, which it likely will. Where is Ohio going to get the money to deal with this?? In the state budget? From taxpayers? Where does anyone think the money to offset these costs is going to come from?

So do that please if you can.

Do you have a specific link relating to Ohio that I can post? All of my family is in Ohio.
Save

[seeyalater52]

Jun 8, 2017 19:57:08 GMT -5 mskitkat said:

Jun 7, 2017 18:59:34 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

As always, Andy is spot on.

Also Ohio peeps, probably the number 1 most impactful thing that could happen in this fight PERIOD is if Portman drops his whisper campaign that he'd fall in line with Medicaid cuts in exchange for an opioid $ pot. This has the potential to pick off multiple senators (Capito and Collins in particular) and probably collapse the whole resistance to the bill in one neat swoop. Call Portman and demand no cuts to Medicaid. Call Kasich and tell him to tell Portman unequivocally no cuts to Medicaid. Medicaid serves an absurd number of people struggling with substance misuse (opioids and otherwise) in Ohio and across the country. Firstly there is no possible way to offset the loss of Medicaid dollars being proposed. Second, the opioid epidemic is on an upswing not a downswing, so we really really do not want to be setting baselines for a per capita cap in the current year based on current spending. That's how we will end up without the funding and tools needed in the health system to keep fighting back when it gets even worse, which it likely will. Where is Ohio going to get the money to deal with this?? In the state budget? From taxpayers? Where does anyone think the money to offset these costs is going to come from?

So do that please if you can.

Do you have a specific link relating to Ohio that I can post? All of my family is in Ohio.
Save

This might be too dense for laypeople but this report has a ton of really amazing state specific data and analysis of the impact of proposed caps and cuts on the state and it was done by a reputable state policy group: ccs.memberclicks.net/assets/docs/Health_Policy/2017_2019/issue%20brief%20per%20capita%20cuts%20update%202.0_lanthes_05152017.pdf

Here's two blogs from national groups about the connection between the AHCA and opioids, the first one is about the impact on rust belt states in particular:
www.communitycatalyst.org/blog/repealing-aca-could-undermine-response-to-opioid-epidemic-in-rust-belt-states#.WTn2SYUpDYV

www.cbpp.org/blog/trump-proposals-would-cripple-efforts-to-reverse-opioid-epidemic

Here's a more accessible article from Modern Healthcare that's specific to the opioid issue in Ohio and Pennsylvania and how cuts to Medicaid will hurt: www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20170531/NEWS/170539960

From the New York Times on opioids in Ohio and how quickly overdose deaths are rising: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/05/upshot/opioid-epidemic-drug-overdose-deaths-are-rising-faster-than-ever.html?_r=0

[mrhanky]

I'll call Capito again in the morning regarding this (Manchin too, but he's not wavering is he?). I also posted something on FB. I live in a tri-state area that includes WV and OH, so hopefully it will help.

[pizzapizza]

Jun 8, 2017 20:18:37 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Jun 8, 2017 19:57:08 GMT -5 mskitkat said:

Do you have a specific link relating to Ohio that I can post? All of my family is in Ohio.
Save

This might be too dense for laypeople but this report has a ton of really amazing state specific data and analysis of the impact of proposed caps and cuts on the state and it was done by a reputable state policy group: ccs.memberclicks.net/assets/docs/Health_Policy/2017_2019/issue%20brief%20per%20capita%20cuts%20update%202.0_lanthes_05152017.pdf

Here's two blogs from national groups about the connection between the AHCA and opioids, the first one is about the impact on rust belt states in particular:
www.communitycatalyst.org/blog/repealing-aca-could-undermine-response-to-opioid-epidemic-in-rust-belt-states#.WTn2SYUpDYV

www.cbpp.org/blog/trump-proposals-would-cripple-efforts-to-reverse-opioid-epidemic

Here's a more accessible article from Modern Healthcare that's specific to the opioid issue in Ohio and Pennsylvania and how cuts to Medicaid will hurt: www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20170531/NEWS/170539960

From the New York Times on opioids in Ohio and how quickly overdose deaths are rising: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/05/upshot/opioid-epidemic-drug-overdose-deaths-are-rising-faster-than-ever.html?_r=0

seeyalater52, do you have any other links to similar reports like the first one for other states?  I would love to review and send to friends in GA.  I would assume  calls to our GA senator would help?