Gun Sales Hinge on Obama Re-Election

[teflep]

Well, this isn't at all scary


As Cabela's Inc. CAB +0.45% prepares the selection of guns it will sell for the holiday season and winter hunting, the outdoor-gear retailer has two plans: one if President Barack Obama is re-elected, and one if he isn't.

The Sidney, Neb.-based retailer and other companies in the guns-and-ammo business say if Mr. Obama wins a second term they are preparing for a surge in sales—the same as they saw after he was elected in 2008—from buyers fearful the president would back policies to make buying a gun more difficult. If Republican challenger Mitt Romney wins, though, the chain plans to stock more items such as waterproof boots and camouflage hunting gear.


"If Mitt Romney is elected and there's no perceived threat on the freedom to own guns, people might decide to spend disposable income on things like outerwear instead," said Joe Arterburn, a Cabela's spokesman.

Even though there haven't been any substantial changes to gun-control laws under Mr. Obama, Cabela's, Bass Pro Shops, Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. SWHC -2.41% and Olin Corp., OLN +0.52% the maker of Winchester bullets, are anticipating another bump in sales this winter if President Obama is re-elected.

Smith & Wesson raised its full-year sales forecast last week to $530 million to $540 million, up from its previous estimates of $485 million and $505 million, citing strong consumer demand that led to a 30% jump in the number of firearms sold in the first quarter of 2013 compared with the year before.

Enlarge Image

Catalin Abagiu for The Wall Street Journal
Cabela's gets about a fifth of its revenue from firearms and ammo. Above, a collectible revolver at a Cabela's store in Dundee, Mich.

Closely-held Bass Pro Shops said it also expects gun sales to ramp up heading into the 2012 election, but declined to disclose sales figures.

Cabela's saw a 25% increase in new gun buyers right after the 2008 election, and continues to see strong sales, aided by an uptick in female and younger customers, according to Mr. Arterburn.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., WMT -0.85% the largest U.S. seller of firearms and ammunition, declined to comment on its gun sales.

Retailers' preparations reflect business, not political, concerns, experts say. "Besides making up a large chunk of revenue, guns are a real traffic driver for these stores," said Wells Fargo analyst Matt Nemer. "Businesses are trying to plan, order inventory and staff stores, and you have this event coming down that could significantly impact sales."

The stores are responding to shoppers like David Humke, a 43-year-old manager at a bolt and screw company in Louisiana, who recently stopped at a Cabela's store in Allen, Texas, to browse its selection of collectible guns.

Mr. Humke, an avid deer hunter, worries guns might become less available in the future. "People feel it's coming so they're stockpiling," he said.

Adam Fetcher, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, defended the president's policies. "President Obama's record makes clear that he supports and respects the Second Amendment and the tradition of gun ownership in this country, and we'll continue to fight back against any attempts to mislead voters," he said.

The Romney campaign declined to comment.

Consumers are responding in part to advertisements from advocacy groups such as the National Rifle Association, which warn voters that they could face increased gun regulations if President Obama is re-elected.

In a second term, President Obama wouldn't have to be worry about being re-elected so "there's no political downfall if Obama enacts more stringent gun-control measures," said NRA spokesman Andrew Arulanandam.

Nearly 12 million background checks for gun sales took place in the U.S. this year through Aug. 31, up 56% from the same period in 2008, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Customers must undergo background checks before buying firearms from federally licensed sellers.

Collections of federal excise taxes on the sale of new firearms and ammunition, a proxy for gun sales, rose to $453 million in 2009, a 45% jump from the year before. That's a significant surge compared with the average 6% annual increase reported by the Treasury Department's Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau from 1993 to 2008. Excise tax collections have moderated somewhat, to $344 million in 2011, but remain above pre-2008 levels.

As demand has risen, supply hasn't kept up. Manufacturers are experiencing backlogs, even as they raise prices and report record profits.

Citing the political impact of the election, Olin said its June backlog doubled compared with the year before. The company has said it plans to raise ammunition prices by 2% to 6%.

Many suppliers of guns and ammo have been concerned that increased demand may not last and so have been hesitant to invest in additional manufacturing capacity, leaving retailers worried about adequate supplies.

Cabela's, which generates about a fifth of its $2.8 billion in revenue from firearms and ammunition, is offering to pay suppliers more quickly, 15 days in some cases, in hopes of becoming a favored destination for the limited inventory. It can take some retailers up to 120 days to pay gun and ammo manufacturers.

"This way, vendors know exactly what we're expecting from them and we know they're going to deliver reliably," said Fred Neal, senior director of merchandising for firearms.

—Danny Yadron contributed to this article.
Write to Shelly Banjo at [e-mail]

A version of this article appeared September 15, 2012, on page B1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Election Has Gun Sellers Stocking Up.

[Dumbledork]

MIL wanted nothing to do with guns until Pres. Obama got elected. Now she owns at least three. Last time we visited her, her preacher joined us for breakfast one day and started asking questions about if we'd heard any chatter about Obama shutting down the military and did we know of anyone, maybe overseas, that could get their church unregistered guns for a) when Obama does away with the second amendment and b) he finally reveals himself to be the anti-Christ. They think getting rid of the second amendment is a step towards Satan's domination over them. They can't fight the anti-Christ without weapons, so of course he wants to stop people from owning them. MIL was nodding her head right along the whole time.

Last time DH called her, she wanted to know if we'd heard about Obama's secret purchase of thousands of hollow point bullets and should she be worried that he'd bought them for extreme religious folks like herself.

So yea, I can totally see her, and most members of her church, purchasing more guns if Obama is re-elected.

[soontobeka]

And people say Obama has done nothing to stimulate the economy.

[earlgreyhot]

Sept 15, 2012 19:36:56 GMT -5 Dumbledork said:

MIL wanted nothing to do with guns until Pres. Obama got elected. Now she owns at least three. Last time we visited her, her preacher joined us for breakfast one day and started asking questions about if we'd heard any chatter about Obama shutting down the military and did we know of anyone, maybe overseas, that could get their church unregistered guns for a) when Obama does away with the second amendment and b) he finally reveals himself to be the anti-Christ. They think getting rid of the second amendment is a step towards Satan's domination over them. They can't fight the anti-Christ without weapons, so of course he wants to stop people from owning them. MIL was nodding her head right along the whole time.

Last time DH called her, she wanted to know if we'd heard about Obama's secret purchase of thousands of hollow point bullets and should she be worried that he'd bought them for extreme religious folks like herself.

So yea, I can totally see her, and most members of her church, purchasing more guns if Obama is re-elected.

Not that logic or reason can be applied here, but doesn't Revelation say "true" Christians be raptured up about the time, or soon after the antichrist is revealed. And even if they die, then the world is coming to an end soon so why fight back??

[Dumbledork]

I've no idea, it's been years since I've looked at Revelations. But you're right, there's no reasoning with her. I tend to just tune her out and talk to her mother who is much more reasonable.

[smock]

Also, I'm pretty sure bullets don't work on Satan.

[basilosaurus]

Sept 15, 2012 20:39:40 GMT -5 smock said:

Also, I'm pretty sure bullets don't work on Satan.

Not even silver bullets? How about wooden stakes?

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2012 20:04:42 GMT -5 soontobeka said:

And people say Obama has done nothing to stimulate the economy.

I laughed out loud

[copzgirl1171]

Who really in their right mind thinks ANY President is going to take their guns?

The world is mad y'all. Mad. I am ready to build a bunker and go under just to save myself from humanity, I swear.

Now where can a get beans with a 20 year shelf life?

[bhnumbers]

Sept 15, 2012 21:26:55 GMT -5 @copzgirl1171 said:

Who really in their right mind thinks ANY President is going to take their guns?

The world is mad y'all. Mad. I am ready to build a bunker and go under just to save myself from humanity, I swear.

Now where can a get beans with a 20 year shelf life?

Can I come hide with you?

WTH is wrong with these people? They did the same thing before he was elected and, SURPRISE!! They still have their guns...

Does anyone know if this happened before Clinton was elected? Or is this because Obama is a scary foreigner?

[copzgirl1171]

I don't think I will rest any easier knowing these zealots are stockpiling weapons either. Holy heck.

[copzgirl1171]

I just had flashbacks to Tremors and Reba and Alex P Keatons dad's stash.

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2012 19:36:56 GMT -5 Dumbledork said:

MIL wanted nothing to do with guns until Pres. Obama got elected. Now she owns at least three. Last time we visited her, her preacher joined us for breakfast one day and started asking questions about if we'd heard any chatter about Obama shutting down the military and did we know of anyone, maybe overseas, that could get their church unregistered guns for a) when Obama does away with the second amendment and b) he finally reveals himself to be the anti-Christ. They think getting rid of the second amendment is a step towards Satan's domination over them. They can't fight the anti-Christ without weapons, so of course he wants to stop people from owning them.

I didn't know you could stop the AntiChrist with a bullet...but OMG, they really asked you to get unregistered guns for a church?

Shouldn't that be reported?

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2012 21:26:55 GMT -5 @copzgirl1171 said:

Now where can a get beans with a 20 year shelf life?

Costco.

DUH.

www.costco.com/Common/Category.aspx?ec=BC-EC39718-Cat75277&pos=0&whse=BC&topnav=&cat=90741&eCat=BC|3605|75277|90741&lang=en-US

[josieposy]

I'm more worried about cows with guns. Cause clearly if Obama wins re-election, the cows will be armed!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5s5qGg01nE

[teflep]

Sept 15, 2012 21:38:57 GMT -5 @copzgirl1171 said:

I just had flashbacks to Tremors and Reba and Alex P Keatons dad's stash.

Michael gross.

[UMaineTeach]

Sept 15, 2012 21:51:12 GMT -5 sandsonik said:

Sept 15, 2012 19:36:56 GMT -5 Dumbledork said:

They think getting rid of the second amendment is a step towards Satan's domination over them. They can't fight the anti-Christ without weapons, so of course he wants to stop people from owning them.

I didn't know you could stop the AntiChrist with a bullet.

perhaps these:

[Deleted]

Obama has done nothing, ever, to suggest he wants to inhibit gun sales. Romney probably has a worse record with the NRA than Obama does.

[livinitup]

So, I'll ask:

You own a gun shop - who are you voting for?

[UMaineTeach]

Sept 16, 2012 13:58:48 GMT -5 livinitup said:

So, I'll ask:

You own a gun shop - who are you voting for?

I'll bet the profit margin is bigger on outerwear than guns. Legal guns sell for about the same price, give or take, anywhere you go and are easy to price compare, but getting new hunting boots, I'll take my chances at the store without an hour of googling.

[snarkymalarky]

My BIL owns a gun shop. He is voting for Romney

[snarkymalarky]

But his shop is small and he doesn't have a lot of space to sell accessories. I'd say 80% of his sales are guns.

[ttt]

Sept 16, 2012 14:46:26 GMT -5 snarkymalarky said:

My BIL owns a gun shop. He is voting for Romney

Talk about voting against your own economic self-interest.

[gpw]

Sept 15, 2012 21:32:18 GMT -5 bhnumbers said:

Sept 15, 2012 21:26:55 GMT -5 @copzgirl1171 said:

Who really in their right mind thinks ANY President is going to take their guns?

The world is mad y'all. Mad. I am ready to build a bunker and go under just to save myself from humanity, I swear.

Now where can a get beans with a 20 year shelf life?

Can I come hide with you?

WTH is wrong with these people? They did the same thing before he was elected and, SURPRISE!! They still have their guns...

Does anyone know if this happened before Clinton was elected? Or is this because Obama is a scary foreigner?

While I don't know if it happened before Clinton was elected/re-elected, I do know he's a part of it. Well, I know anecdotally, anyway. It was under Clinton that some gun restrictions were passed (I'm really just too lazy to look it up, so I don't know the exact legislation). It may have in his second term, because I have been hearing rumblings about stocking up and how if Obama is going to have a second that is when he will pull the trigger on his anti gun agenda. You know, he probably keeps that agenda in his back pocket all the time just waiting to bust it out all over the gunners.

[Deleted]

I think MO even said during the first campaign BO didn't care about gun control. Clinton was always a little flakey on guns. BO has never made it an issue. Also, Clinton tried gun control before the Supreme Court restored the 2nd amendment. Why would BO even try to waste political capital when there's no question how the Court would rule.

[snarkymalarky]

TTT- yes the irony is pretty amazing. Trying to talk to him about politics is like talking to a damn wall. He's a birther too. Fun times for me

[gpw]

Sept 16, 2012 15:34:42 GMT -5 elle said:

I think MO even said during the first campaign BO didn't care about gun control. Clinton was always a little flakey on guns. BO has never made it an issue. Also, Clinton tried gun control before the Supreme Court restored the 2nd amendment. Why would BO even try to waste political capital when there's no question how the Court would rule.

these talking points don't exactly work on the fringe...