Budget Situation?

[melissa]

Has anyone heard any updates on the budget situation? What is your feeling on the prospect of a furlough?

[bowies]

No official word but informally I’ve seen to expect a CR until mid-January.

[melissa]

Looks like I should have been a little bit more patient - latest article from Gov Exec

[seeyalater52]

There's an agreement on the CR but it's definitely a compromise bill. There will not be a shutdown.

The bill:
• Funds the CHIP program with $2.85 billion through March 31.
• Extends CMS's ability to use Redistribution Funds to help states dealing with CHIP-related funding shortfalls.
• Funds community health centers and other health programs by cutting the ACA's Prevention and Public Health Fund by $750 million.

Here is a section-by-section summary: rules.house.gov/sites/republicans.rules.house.gov/files/115/PDF/HR%201%20%5BCR%5D/Section-by-Section%20Summary.pdf

[karinothing]

I seriously can't believe they are in charge of everything and still can't get a damn budget. It has been since April 2009. Almost a damn decade. They should all be fired.

[seeyalater52]

I know I'm contradicting myself a little here, but things are looking more fluid on the CR than they were this morning so I wanted to update. We just got an updated whip and it looks like they're not sure they have the votes in the House to pass this proposal, and aren't sure about the Senate. The Public Health and Prevention Fund thing is kind of a poison pill but I think the CHIP pieces are the major hangup vote-wise. Things will need to be resolved pretty quickly since the current CR runs out tomorrow.

If they can't agree on this version I assume they'll pass a "clean" CR with nothing else attached to it because both parties right now seem inclined to avoid a shutdown. If I hear anything else I'll post.

[pumpkin]

Dec 21, 2017 11:02:36 GMT -5 bowies said:

No official word but informally I’ve seen to expect a CR until mid-January.

This is what I heard on the news this morning, but nothing from my agency about anything.

[melissa]

seeyalater52 , I appreciate you taking the time to update. I thought it was rather fluid but I know others have more inside knowledge than I do.

It would be something if it does lead to a furlough as I don't believe my agency is prepared at all for it from my perspective.

[Bernadine]

Dec 21, 2017 14:03:39 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

I know I'm contradicting myself a little here, but things are looking more fluid on the CR than they were this morning so I wanted to update. We just got an updated whip and it looks like they're not sure they have the votes in the House to pass this proposal, and aren't sure about the Senate. The Public Health and Prevention Fund thing is kind of a poison pill but I think the CHIP pieces are the major hangup vote-wise. Things will need to be resolved pretty quickly since the current CR runs out tomorrow.

If they can't agree on this version I assume they'll pass a "clean" CR with nothing else attached to it because both parties right now seem inclined to avoid a shutdown. If I hear anything else I'll post.

Thanks for the update, I really do appreciate it.

melissa, you're correct, we're not at all prepared.  It will be a mess with people out on leave if we shutdown.

[melissa]

Bernadine, I'm on leave next week but wouldn't mind coming in to sign papers if we are furloughed if it saves me some of my leave time.

[seeyalater52]

The House is voting on the CR proposal now-ish, so there should be more clarity shortly.

[seeyalater52]

The CR passed the House. 

[seeyalater52]

TBH I kind of think the House passing this CR is a dare to the Senate to shut the gov down but I'm still pretty sure it's going to pass because no one seems to want that. 

[seeyalater52]

Schumer is now on board so it will pass the Senate before the deadline. Shutdown averted but yuck it’s such a bad bill. So annoying.

[annieblah]

so am I to assume the vote passed with no DACA or CHIP funding? Im tired of the bending the Ds do. stand for fucking something that you say you believe in.

[seeyalater52]

Dec 21, 2017 22:14:29 GMT -5 annieblah said:

so am I to assume the vote passed with no DACA or CHIP funding? Im tired of the bending the Ds do. stand for fucking something that you say you believe in.

No DACA. It has a CHIP extender through March. I posted a summary upthread.

Honestly I dont see what the benefit of Dems threatening the shutdown over DACA would be, especially since it looks like it will either attach to the final budget or be passed in the Spring. The shutdown is poor leverage since Republicans have been very clear that they actually don’t care whether the government is shut down or for how long. They want to downsize and starve the beast anyways, and they’re more than happy to do it on the backs of federal employees and bringing everything in DC to a screeching halt. Going into a shutdown will not end in DACA passing so I don't support that tactic at all (And honestly neither do any of the politically savvy immigration organizations we work most closely with. Yes we are all rallying public support to get DACA passed but blowing up all their carefully laid groundwork with a shutdown is the opposite of helpful.)

[annieblah]

we haven't had a budget in 8 years. I don't see that changing, sadly. I'd be interested to see where our local organisations stand in moving for a vote on DACA, as Mcconnell has said they'd do a DACA vote. there is no leverage to ever do it. Why bother? I take on PSA stance on this....stand for something. and CHIP until March. I guess it's something.

[annieblah]

i see we also still have surveillance. ahh, Washington. how i don't miss you.

[annieblah]

[annieblah]

Earlier on Thursday, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus met with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to persuade with the goal of convincing him to urge Senate Democrats to block the spending bill over DACA. But their effort was to no avail, per Politico:

“Basically, Leader Schumer promised he’d urge the majority of senators to vote no, as many as possible,” Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.) said. “And if we can’t get it done now, we will lay it all on the line on the 19th when we come back in January.”
splinter

[annieblah]

I know the HC is not just local to me, but saw that first.

[seeyalater52]

Our contacts in the Caucus know that the shutdown wasn’t actually on the table, and also that it won’t accomplish the goal of getting the DREAM act passed. They’re making a point - and an important one. Yes, some of the HC members are true believers in that strategy. I get wanting to do everything possible to fix the immigration related injustices that are occurring every day, and to do it NOW and not later. But truly the shutdown would not accomplish what we all want and Democrats in leadership know that. The minority party doesn’t get to make demands like that if they want to amass enough votes for a real solution and not just to score political points. Democrats cannot pass it alone. The shutdown is not real leverage.

It’s not that I dont know what’s going on, I just disagree that the shutdown message moves us closer to yes on the outcome we want.

[annieblah]

I keep thinking about this, and listening to pods, Twitter and I just don't see any incentive for fucking Republicans to do a damn thing. Ds can't use the debt ceiling, that's coming, so what is the incentive?

[seeyalater52]

Dec 22, 2017 15:49:13 GMT -5 annieblah said:

I keep thinking about this, and listening to pods, Twitter and I just don't see any incentive for fucking Republicans to do a damn thing. Ds can't use the debt ceiling, that's coming, so what is the incentive?

I think there may be enough Republicans who want to do this to get it passed, but it is a delicate situation and one that requires getting the President on board (which for obvious reasons, the least of which being that he is a petulant child who wont take anyone’s advice except idiots). Last time we whipped we were basically there on the DREAM act as long as it was attached to something else and Trump is moving into more of a space of being inclined to sign. Continuing to get Republicans on board is the most important thing that can be done because their votes are needed for it to pass. There is much better leverage with individual GOP legislators changing or solidifying their yes votes (leverage being re-election in their states/districts, values alignment, economic concerns etc) than there is strong-arming the whole party with dramatic tactics, even though I think doing that makes people feel more like they’re “doing” something even if it’s just not that helpful. That work is being done now and it’s been highly effective.

[annieblah]

Dec 22, 2017 16:25:44 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Dec 22, 2017 15:49:13 GMT -5 annieblah said:

I keep thinking about this, and listening to pods, Twitter and I just don't see any incentive for fucking Republicans to do a damn thing. Ds can't use the debt ceiling, that's coming, so what is the incentive?

I think there may be enough Republicans who want to do this to get it passed, but it is a delicate situation and one that requires getting the President on board (which for obvious reasons, the least of which being that he is a petulant child who wont take anyone’s advice except idiots). Last time we whipped we were basically there on the DREAM act as long as it was attached to something else and Trump is moving into more of a space of being inclined to sign. Continuing to get Republicans on board is the most important thing that can be done because their votes are needed for it to pass. There is much better leverage with individual GOP legislators changing or solidifying their yes votes (leverage being re-election in their states/districts, values alignment, economic concerns etc) than there is strong-arming the whole party with dramatic tactics, even though I think doing that makes people feel more like they’re “doing” something even if it’s just not that helpful. That work is being done now and it’s been highly effective.

It has? Can you link to how it's been effective for Dreamers? becaue as of now, kicking this to later already puts many at risk. I'm really struggling here, as are the many students I work with this as the Rs show thry care more about millionaires than kids so I'm struggling.

[seeyalater52]

Dec 22, 2017 18:45:06 GMT -5 annieblah said:

Dec 22, 2017 16:25:44 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

I think there may be enough Republicans who want to do this to get it passed, but it is a delicate situation and one that requires getting the President on board (which for obvious reasons, the least of which being that he is a petulant child who wont take anyone’s advice except idiots). Last time we whipped we were basically there on the DREAM act as long as it was attached to something else and Trump is moving into more of a space of being inclined to sign. Continuing to get Republicans on board is the most important thing that can be done because their votes are needed for it to pass. There is much better leverage with individual GOP legislators changing or solidifying their yes votes (leverage being re-election in their states/districts, values alignment, economic concerns etc) than there is strong-arming the whole party with dramatic tactics, even though I think doing that makes people feel more like they’re “doing” something even if it’s just not that helpful. That work is being done now and it’s been highly effective.

It has? Can you link to how it's been effective for Dreamers? becaue as of now, kicking this to later already puts many at risk. I'm really struggling here, as are the many students I work with this as the Rs show thry care more about millionaires than kids so I'm struggling.

It should be obvious that it hasn’t helped anyone yet.... since the new law hasn’t passed. But actually passing the DREAM act which is slated to happen hopefully in January is a much better way to protect people than shutting down the government which will do literally nothing to help Dreamers because it’s not the leverage that is needed to make a difference here. Which is my entire point.

I literally hate every single republican so I assume you this isn’t just me giving them credit where credit isn’t due. They suck as a party and as individuals and their collective priorities are out of fucking order. But enough of them are very likely to vote on the final DREAM act, and that would be helpful for people who are suffering under current immigration policy, which is inhumane. The lobbying that has been done this year to set the groundwork for those R votes on the DREAM act is working. That’s my only point.

[seeyalater52]

Also I think it’s important to note that I am taking strategic guidance here from Latino advocacy groups that do an excellent job of pursuing both inside and outside tactics. They will definitely tell you they weren’t looking for a government shutdown because that’s not helping anything. But they are pursuing hard-hitting advocacy and demanding that DACA and the DREAM act be addressed - and that it needs to happen NOW.

The largest and I’d argue most effective is Unidos US (formerly National Council of La Raza). www.unidosus.org What they need is support and resources for the strategic campaign they’re running and getting very close to winning.