Post by DotAndBuzz on Oct 19, 2018 13:40:26 GMT -5
lol, no.
This might be possible for major metropolitan areas/high population density areas and for the shipping industry, but for the rest of the country? Nope.
The American housing boom/sprawl is built around transportation independence. Most places have minimal mass transportation infrastructure that people can efficiently use, and taxpayers don't want to pay to fund more. Hell, my SUPER liberal enclave in Michigan *just* passed an extension of the bus line out to where I live. They have 3 stops out here total (and buses only arrive every 20-30 minutes), no way to get from the stops to your house without walking on the shoulder of narrow 2 lane wooded roads. So I'd have to take a prolonged trip on a bus, schedule a car to pick me up at the bus stop, and then have it take me home. Or I could drive home from downtown in 10 minutes.
Automated cars also don't seem to factor in inclement weather and rural/mountain regions. I was detoured onto back roads this summer from the West Virginia Turnpike, and my GPS had no idea where I was. None. This is a 2 year old car, with updated systems/navigation. It has lane keep assist, can drive itself on a sunny day on most highways and even in town, and my car wasn't registering the edges of the roads because they weren't clearly marked. It was kind of gravel on the edge, and faded paint lines through a winding 2 lane mountain road. Hell, my car can't find the edge lines of my well paved, well marked road when it's raining. Imagine either of these scenarios at night, with 2 inches of snow (or more) on the ground.
If the car can't see the road, and the satellite system doesn't know WHERE the road is, a self driving car can't drive. These things are a LONG way off for most of America.
Post by DotAndBuzz on Oct 19, 2018 13:47:02 GMT -5
I can, however, see the internal combustion engine disappearing relatively quickly. The infrastructure to support electric cars would be far easier to roll out (politically, socially, and economically) than the switch to a coupled self driving car service/mass transit system
We have no grocery store, no convenient store under a mile, and the closest public transportation is in another Town or next to the highway (further away than the commuter rail in the next town). I live 30 miles south of Boston in an area that is not very rural, this would be tough and we are actively trying to bring more public transportation opportunities to my town.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha deep breaths hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Sorry but this is all a little to urban focused pie in the sky to me. Banning the internal combustion engine equaling communal cars is a Happy Days-esque jumping of the shark for me.
Do I think we will move more toward electric cars? Yes. Do I think we will move more toward self driving cars? Yes. Do I think for the majority of Americans who need a vehicle to get to where they want to go will just start sharing cars? Hell no. In your village you have 1 or 2 shared cars but 8 people need to be to work at the same time miles apart. You live in a place where is snows like crazy and it is a 10 minute walk in good weather to the "shared car park" if you are lucky and almost impossible to get to when it snows because you have no sidewalks.
Americans will cling to their cars, particularly their performance machines, tighter than they will their guns.
I think cities will see a huge change in 20 years but elsewhere it’ll be a slow adoption with major pushback. I mean, my parents are proudly low-tech to the point where my dad is a hipster now with his records and turntable. The fleet of suburban soccer moms that occupy my area of the country will not part with their Tahoes willingly and will vote against anyone who threatens to make them.
I agree that adoption is going to be slow in the US. And I think oil companies are going to lobby hard against large-scale shifts to electric vehicles. I doubt "big horse" had the same power a hundred years ago lol. I could see the transition happening a lot faster in Europe.
Post by CallingAllAngels on Oct 19, 2018 14:29:42 GMT -5
I am thrilled about this. We spend a ton of money on inefficient cars that sit idle more than 22 hours on most days. Yeah, there are things to be worked out, and I would have to change some things, but I love the idea of not having to buy, maintain, or drive a car. I live in suburbia where you have to drive to get almost anywhere, but I totally think this is doable in my lifetime (I haven't bought my last car though; one of our cars has 170,000 miles on it. I am sure we will be replacing it before this is widespread).
Post by debatethis on Oct 19, 2018 14:38:12 GMT -5
This is one of those articles that will confirm to rural Americans that city/suburban Americans are living in a damn bubble. Good luck getting widespread electric car adoption in rural Arizona/Texas and other parts unknown where even hospitals and WalMarts are hours away.
Consider me one of the scoffers. This is how the article addresses the rural areas:
Don't worry that rural areas will be left out. A vehicle could be parked in every village waiting for your order to come.
There may be fewer of us, but we're going to need more than one car per village. I seriously doubt that any personal car alternative is going to be cheap and efficient enough for the commute, regular errands like grocery shopping, and myriad kid activities. This might be possible in big cities or even suburbs, but people who live in the country most definitely have not purchased their last car.
LOLOLOLOL. Kids - fire up the dial-up so that we can rent the village car in order to drive down to the creek and collect water for the laundry...
Future history shows that the transporter is more likely to cure your illness and de-age you than anything. Don't be such a McCoy!
(I know it's a lyric, I just love magic transporters)
Tuvix? Mirror-verse? Evil twins? Tuvix is the most horrifying to me.
I'm 98% sure we're living in the Mirror-verse, so that would be a net win for us.
But there are four eps where the transporter de-ages folks (caveat: I'm only at TNG in my rewatch, so there might be more) and only like two where it splits people. But you just pop them back in the transporter and they're good as new, possibly younger.
I also think that a car-less society is something that will increase the gulf between the rich and everyone else, and be devastating to the poor, and in certain areas, even the middle class.
The ability not to drive is a privilege. If the world were to change such that nobody *could* drive, the rich will adapt just fine, but the poor will get fucked.
Let's look at San Francisco, where the shift to the car-free lifestyle is well under way. More and more rich people want to live in the city, and fewer poor and middle class people can still do it. Tech companies that are in the suburbs offer private, free commuter buses for their employees (nearly all of whom are making six figures), so those employees can live in the most desirable spots. Other tech companies negotiate sweetheart deals with the city of SF or other desireable locations around here, so their high income employees can live close to work, and have the option of walking or taking public transit, but lower income people get pushed out. Uber and Lyft both originated here and are incredibly widely used. I even know people who use them for commuting purposes - e.g. my neighbor takes a Lyft a mile and a half every morning to the place where he picks up his tech company bus for work. He can afford this not just because he makes a lot of money, but also because his total cost of commuting is comparable or even less than, say, a teacher or social worker who lives in some far flung suburb who has to commute to SF every day, either by car or public transit. On top of that highly skilled workers are increasingly able to work from home. High earning people who are not budget sensitive can rely on Amazon, Instacart, Task Rabbit, and other services to reduce their needs for cars.
People who are not making a lot of money here need their cars way more than people who do make a lot of money. They cannot afford to live within walking distance of their jobs or pay to have groceries delivered. And the fact that the rich don't rely on public transit as much means there isn't an incentive to invest in it, and their commute times are horrible and in uncomfortable conditions.
If we were to shift to a mode of living in which nobody owned cars, the wealthy would survive just fine because they are practically already there. If they haven't already, they'll flock to the most convenient place to be without a car. How does everyone else adapt though?
Consider me one of the scoffers. This is how the article addresses the rural areas:
Don't worry that rural areas will be left out. A vehicle could be parked in every village waiting for your order to come.
There may be fewer of us, but we're going to need more than one car per village. I seriously doubt that any personal car alternative is going to be cheap and efficient enough for the commute, regular errands like grocery shopping, and myriad kid activities. This might be possible in big cities or even suburbs, but people who live in the country most definitely have not purchased their last car.
LOLOLOLOL. Kids - fire up the dial-up so that we can rent the village car in order to drive down to the creek and collect water for the laundry...
I am 98% sure we bought or last internal combustion vehicle 5 years ago when we bought my Subaru. We just didn't know it then.
We bought a Telsa model 3 in August to replace H's truck as a daily driver, and he and I both are in love with this car. (The truck has low mileage, so we're holding onto it for camping/hauling). The range is long enough that we can get to our parents' town 4hrs away without having to stop to charge. And when we DO need to charge, we're in need of a stop anyway. We haven't had any issues being able to find chargers, and there are two more being put in by 2019.
It was the most expensive car we've purchased, but it wasn't outrageous. My in-laws spent more on a fully loaded GMC Acadia. (3rd row SUV)
Rumor is Telsa is building a crossover on the Model 3 frame. I have my eye on that one to replace my Subaru Crosstrek when it comes time.
Post by penguingrrl on Oct 19, 2018 16:36:38 GMT -5
I truly hope I’ve bought my last gas engine vehicle. We wanted to go electric for Hs car when we got it last year (his company has a solar farm powering the entire campus, with EV charging stations, so it truly would have been an environmentally sound choice) but were priced out of the market, even factoring gas costs.
I don’t think the US could feasibly see the end of personally owned cars for a long time, though. There are too many circumstances where not having your own vehicle is extremely cumbersome. Not just in terms of being able to leave stuff in it (which is nice) but I’m not imagining Americans giving up the convenience of going where they want, when they want, with no interruptions, which a shared self driving vehicle simply can’t offer. Uber/Lyft/taxis are nice options, but not always immediately available to ensure you can be where you need to be exactly when you need to be there.
@@@ we ended up needing to own a car even when we lived in NYC. Not because we needed it within the city, but because shlepping caraways kn public transit to leave the city, which we did frequently to visit family, was cumbersome at best. And that was with one infant still in the bucket. It also meant whomever picked us up at the train had to be able to fit 3 of us, because very few people we were visiting are walking distance to public transit.
Considering that a 4.5 hour drive to my parents still consists of a solid 2 hour stretch of dead zones on our phones (making even calling or receiving phone calls rarely possible and texts never go through), I don’t see this happening anytime soon in my area. I know this is from the UK, but I’m often frustrated at how often non-metropolitan areas are forgotten in these discussions.
I agree with ESF that this will increase the divide between the rich and the poor...and also city and rural (which is often similar).
For environmental reasons, I’d love to see major changes happen. We have a LONG way to go to get there and I think even 20 years is overly optimistic. I think it’s especially optimistic if we continue to have people in power who think lowering taxes for their rich buddies and corporations is the way to do things! I hope I’m wrong!
I am extremely torn about this. I know this would be great in a lot of ways. However as someone who works in the automotive industry it is also a terrifying thought.
I know people cite the cost of owning a car as higher than public transit but that was not my experience. I do live in Houston where the public transit is terrible. You can buy a daily bus pass for $3. And Lyft is about $1/mi plus a small time fee. To get from where I lived to my Dad's house by public transit would require either two 1 mile Lyft rides and six transfers. That means the half hour trip takes three to five hours depending on if you manage to catch the buses on time. The area I live in they run every half hour or hour and are not consistent in the arrival time.
That also means you cannot really plan for them to be reliable when it comes to getting to work on time. As most people who have less money have jobs that require certain start times that also becomes an issue. Another problem we had was my husband was working a job that started at 3 am, and the buses started at 5:45.
Lyft is expensive. I spend less on insurance, maintenance, and a car note than I would if I traveled the same 90 miles a week by rideshare.
LOLOLOLOL. Kids - fire up the dial-up so that we can rent the village car in order to drive down to the creek and collect water for the laundry...
A vehicle parked in every village???
It's the UK, villages are a thing there.
There are a handful of villages around where I grew up in IL (I'm sure they're different than what the UK calls a village) and most of them are at least 45 minutes from any towns with a hospital, Walmart, or anything more than a tiny dollar general and one gas station (not exaggerating, most have a DG and a Casey's gas station). They'd need their own fleet of cars.
Post by Velar Fricative on Oct 19, 2018 20:00:32 GMT -5
This is not really the point but it’s related so I’ll bring it up anyway - ride-sharing has spoiled us. It is decimating public transportation, because the rich can take Uber around Manhattan but the poor are left to deal with our crumbling transit system. And when you’re being ushered around in a private vehicle, why would you want to go back to sitting with the unwashed masses on a bus? And therefore why would you want to fund something you’re not using? I fear public transit will no longer be seen as a worthwhile investment (not that it is in a whole lot of places anyway) because, hey, just book your own car when you want it, traffic be damned!
I work for an electric utility and recently spent several days hearing about where our industry is going. Several of the speakers were leaders from car manufacturers. Worldwide there are 179 different electric vehicle models available, many of which are not available in the US. GM will introduce 20 new all-electric models by 2023. Ford is discontinuing all their sedans and has committed $11B to transition away from the internal combustion engine. Chevy will launch two new all-electric cars in the next 18 months based on what they've learned with the Bolt.
Most people are not willing to change the type of vehicle they drive in order to drive electric. These automakers realize that if adoption is going to increase they have to start making the types of cars - and trucks - that people want to drive. Beyond that, charging infrastructure isn't going to be widely installed until states push utilities and hold them to ambitious carbon-reduction goals. California has that and their utilities are incentivizing EVs, at-home charging, etc. For states like New Mexico where EV growth is slow, there isn't as huge of a push to rush out and install infrastructure to support them.
I am 98% sure we bought or last internal combustion vehicle 5 years ago when we bought my Subaru. We just didn't know it then.
We bought a Telsa model 3 in August to replace H's truck as a daily driver, and he and I both are in love with this car. (The truck has low mileage, so we're holding onto it for camping/hauling). The range is long enough that we can get to our parents' town 4hrs away without having to stop to charge. And when we DO need to charge, we're in need of a stop anyway. We haven't had any issues being able to find chargers, and there are two more being put in by 2019.
It was the most expensive car we've purchased, but it wasn't outrageous. My in-laws spent more on a fully loaded GMC Acadia. (3rd row SUV)
Rumor is Telsa is building a crossover on the Model 3 frame. I have my eye on that one to replace my Subaru Crosstrek when it comes time.
I’m so glad you’re pleased with your Model 3! That range is ample as you said it is usually time to stop anyway. I have an older Model S so only get around 250 miles and that’s plenty aside from the rare trip.
Do you have enhanced auto pilot? If so what do you think?
I am 98% sure we bought or last internal combustion vehicle 5 years ago when we bought my Subaru. We just didn't know it then.
We bought a Telsa model 3 in August to replace H's truck as a daily driver, and he and I both are in love with this car. (The truck has low mileage, so we're holding onto it for camping/hauling). The range is long enough that we can get to our parents' town 4hrs away without having to stop to charge. And when we DO need to charge, we're in need of a stop anyway. We haven't had any issues being able to find chargers, and there are two more being put in by 2019.
It was the most expensive car we've purchased, but it wasn't outrageous. My in-laws spent more on a fully loaded GMC Acadia. (3rd row SUV)
Rumor is Telsa is building a crossover on the Model 3 frame. I have my eye on that one to replace my Subaru Crosstrek when it comes time.
Model Y. Reveal March 2019 It’ll be very similar size to crosstrek. Built off of the Model 3 chassis. It’ll be fantastic for sure.
They completely miss out on the "schlepping" factor of having your own car. Goodness knows that it is nice to be able to pack my car on Friday night so I can day-trip something on Saturday that means getting up super-early to make the drive to where-ever that event is happening. And to just leave the stuff in the car until Sunday after getting home late on Saturday.
I'm just contemplating the quantity of stuff DH and I routinely lug around in our vehicles that is more than we could easily carry in a single trip. How do I order an uber and then tell it to sit and wait while I spend a half hour or more loading stuff into it, and then another half hour unloading at the far end of a 20 minute drive. I suppose we'd just plan differently, or pack differently, or these self-driving cars might be easier to load/unload? Maybe?
I could see self-driving cars being commonplace, or even the majority in 10-20 years. I don't see people getting rid of their own vehicles completely, though. Reducing the number of owned vehicles, yeah, probably. We could drop down to a single vehicle fairly easily if I woke up 10-15 minutes earlier so I can get home from the gym before DH leaves for work and if I had an alternate option for running errands when I'm done work but DH is not.
Yes. How would I get my 4 cases of wine Home that I picked up yesterday? Delivery? Would definitely drop one vehicle but not two.
I have bad luck with cars. Most of them have been totaled. I live in the city on a small street with no off street parking. I finally got a car with the button that unlocks your car instead of having to use a key. I felt so fancy! I want to drive a newer/nicer car someday.
Really though, am I going to get a Lyft driver to pick me and 4 feral cats up to go to their TNR appointment? Or, take me to Costco and let me haul 200 pounds of sugar, 50 pounds of flour, a case of eggs, butter, milk, etc.. I'd love to not have to have a car but can't see that really ever happening.
This is not really the point but it’s related so I’ll bring it up anyway - ride-sharing has spoiled us. It is decimating public transportation, because the rich can take Uber around Manhattan but the poor are left to deal with our crumbling transit system. And when you’re being ushered around in a private vehicle, why would you want to go back to sitting with the unwashed masses on a bus? And therefore why would you want to fund something you’re not using? I fear public transit will no longer be seen as a worthwhile investment (not that it is in a whole lot of places anyway) because, hey, just book your own car when you want it, traffic be damned!
I thought it was a real miss skipping that topic in this article for sure. But if the price of a ride in an autonomous electric taxi really does drop to 1 pound, that's cheaper than 1 ride on a bus most places. Does in make public transit obsolete? Or do the people who can hop a ride to the train to skip the congestion? That's half the reason I use it now...
My next car will be all electric, but I have a hard time believing that I won’t have a need for a car 10+ years from now. I can see our family dropping down to one car if things pan out with our desire to move back toward the city, but even then, we’ll still need a car.
Others have made excellent points regarding long distance travel, road trips, the need for car seats, etc.