Week of July 1 Democratic primary chatter

[jeaniebueller]

FEC 2nd quarter reports to be released today.

Pete Buttigieg raised 24 million


www.cbsnews.com/news/pete-buttigieg-raises-over-24-million-in-second-quarter-of-fundraising/

Kamala Harris raised another 1.2 million over the weekend:

And Bernie drops to #4 in the latest CNN poll:

Happy Monday!

[CallingAllAngels]

I really want to see *everyone's* fundraising numbers. C'mon, people!

[jeaniebueller]

Jul 1, 2019 15:37:31 GMT -5 CallingAllAngels said:

I really want to see *everyone's* fundraising numbers. C'mon, people!

I know. I’m dying to see how Bernie stacks up

[smock]

Jul 1, 2019 15:37:31 GMT -5 CallingAllAngels said:

I really want to see *everyone's* fundraising numbers. C'mon, people!

They have until July 15th to report. I definitely curious to see those numbers!

[jeaniebueller]

Bernie already doing damage control

JUST IN: @berniesanders campaign manager @fshakir tells @cbsnews he thinks Buttigieg "probably will have more money raised than we will" in Q2 b/c the mayor "solicits money from corporate executives from their homes" unlike Sanders who focuses on small $$ donations. #Roadto2020

[AAM2012]

Jul 1, 2019 17:33:14 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Bernie already doing damage control

JUST IN: @berniesanders campaign manager @fshakir tells @cbsnews he thinks Buttigieg "probably will have more money raised than we will" in Q2 b/c the mayor "solicits money from corporate executives from their homes" unlike Sanders who focuses on small $$ donations. #Roadto2020

Bwahahahahahahahahaha!

[isabel]

I legit can't get over how in love I am with this photo (minus Gabbard, obvi).

http://instagram.com/p/BzY12aoli9a

[isabel]

Jul 1, 2019 17:02:41 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Jul 1, 2019 15:37:31 GMT -5 CallingAllAngels said:

I really want to see *everyone's* fundraising numbers. C'mon, people!

I know. I’m dying to see how Bernie stacks up

I don't know how I got on his email list, but I received an email from his campaign saying his average donation is down to $16 instead of $27. 

[ESF]

Here is an adorable CNN bit about Doug Emhoff, Harris's husband. One of the things that has been enjoyable about this race is seeing men support their wives. I think other than Chasten, most aren't on Twitter, but Doug frequently posts pictures of him with the other husbands, and they all look like they are just having fun and loving seeing their wives kick ass. We didn't really get that too much in 2016 since Bill is both an icon in his own right and kind of a problem.

I feel like their marriage sets a good example for women that *this* is who you hold out for, and I feel like he shows men how to be supportive of their wives' careers. I really would love to see this kind of family in the WH.

[jeaniebueller]

Jul 1, 2019 20:03:05 GMT -5 isabel said:

I legit can't get over how in love I am with this photo (minus Gabbard, obvi).

http://instagr.am/p/BzY12aoli9a

This edit tho

[isabel]

Jul 1, 2019 21:38:13 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Jul 1, 2019 20:03:05 GMT -5 isabel said:

I legit can't get over how in love I am with this photo (minus Gabbard, obvi).

http://instagr.am/p/BzY12aoli9a

This edit tho

Omg yesssss. Everyone can ignore mine. lol

[shauni27]

I immediately had to report back to the board when I saw this sign in a downtown Vermont town, where Bernie is god:




Also relevant: at our local pride event this weekend I tripped and twisted my ankle on non other than a fucking Tulsi 2020 booth. I walked away shaking my head and mumbling, "fucking tulsi."

[seeyalater52]

Jul 2, 2019 6:58:48 GMT -5 shauni27 said:

I immediately had to report back to the board when I saw this sign in a downtown Vermont town, where Bernie is god:




Also relevant: at our local pride event this weekend I tripped and twisted my ankle on non other than a fucking Tulsi 2020 booth. I walked away shaking my head and mumbling, "fucking tulsi."

I’m annoyed as shit that anyone allowed a Tulsi booth at pride. Have some goddamn respect for yourselves, fellow queers!

Sorry about your ankle.

[shauni27]

Jul 2, 2019 7:18:56 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

Jul 2, 2019 6:58:48 GMT -5 shauni27 said:

I immediately had to report back to the board when I saw this sign in a downtown Vermont town, where Bernie is god:




Also relevant: at our local pride event this weekend I tripped and twisted my ankle on non other than a fucking Tulsi 2020 booth. I walked away shaking my head and mumbling, "fucking tulsi."

I’m annoyed as shit that anyone allowed a Tulsi booth at pride. Have some goddamn respect for yourselves, fellow queers!

Sorry about your ankle.

As a board member, I was SO angry. But I was outvoted. (They were right next to the Warren booth and the Tulsi booth had hardly ANY traffic. I made a point to go to the booths on both side of the Tulsi booth and avoid that one all together.)

[seeyalater52]

Jul 2, 2019 7:24:26 GMT -5 shauni27 said:

Jul 2, 2019 7:18:56 GMT -5 seeyalater52 said:

I’m annoyed as shit that anyone allowed a Tulsi booth at pride. Have some goddamn respect for yourselves, fellow queers!

Sorry about your ankle.

As a board member, I was SO angry. But I was outvoted. (They were right next to the Warren booth and the Tulsi booth had hardly ANY traffic. I made a point to go to the booths on both side of the Tulsi booth and avoid that one all together.)

Bless you.

[Velar Fricative]

I want to check Twitter and see if someone used that photo of the women to photoshop #unwantedivanka into it lol.

[seeyalater52]

Jul 2, 2019 7:43:37 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

I want to check Twitter and see if someone used that photo of the women to photoshop #unwantedivanka into it lol.

[Velar Fricative]

Bless you, seeyalater52. LOL!

[wambam]

Well isn't Doug Emhoff just the cutest?

[cville]

Jul 1, 2019 21:38:13 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Jul 1, 2019 20:03:05 GMT -5 isabel said:

I legit can't get over how in love I am with this photo (minus Gabbard, obvi).

http://instagr.am/p/BzY12aoli9a

This edit tho

Chris Evans and Chris Hemsworth are in a neck and neck race for my favorite Hollywood Chris. This may have given Evans the edge.

[eponinepontmercy]

cville, that's a different Chris Evans, but both are delightful.

[pixy0stix]

Hickenpooper is self destructing. www.politico.com/story/2019/07/02/hickenlooper-2020-campaign-1395051

[hocus2]

Jul 2, 2019 12:16:04 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Hickenpooper is self destructing. www.politico.com/story/2019/07/02/hickenlooper-2020-campaign-1395051

   We've got to get to one eventually. No one wants to be the first to drop out because each drop out benefits those who remain but it isn't shocking that someone with fairly low national name recognition and  views more conservative than the primary base would have a hard time getting donors. 

[Deleted]

Jul 1, 2019 17:02:41 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Jul 1, 2019 15:37:31 GMT -5 CallingAllAngels said:

I really want to see *everyone's* fundraising numbers. C'mon, people!

I know. I’m dying to see how Bernie stacks up

Not fundraising but the new Quinnipiac poll was just released. Both Harris and Warren are ahead of Bernie. I’m sure he’s apoplectic at TWO women polling ahead of him.

[Deleted]

Apparently the crosstabs show Bernie with only 10 percent support among women. I LOVE IT.

[hocus2]

I've looked at the newest polling. We're seeing a rapid winnow in the polls. We're going to be down to 12 to 13 or so folks who have 1% or more in polls and 9 to 10 or so who are polling at 2% or more consistently. I'm expecting a single stage for debates in September. Even if they need 2 nights it will be because there are 11 or 12 folks.

[Deleted]

My prediction is that it’s going to come down to Warren and Harris. Both are trending up in the polls and making gains among black voters. Biden’s campaign is lazy and I don’t think will be able to recover from whatever his next gaffe is. Bernie’s negatives have increased, his numbers among women are low, and he’s not making the needed gains with black voters. I’d like to see Castro surge, but I don’t know that he’s going to be able to catch Warren and Harris.

[ESF]

Jul 2, 2019 13:25:20 GMT -5 hocus2 said:

I've looked at the newest polling. We're seeing a rapid winnow in the polls. We're going to be down to 12 to 13 or so folks who have 1% or more in polls and 9 to 10 or so who are polling at 2% or more consistently. I'm expecting a single stage for debates in September. Even if they need 2 nights it will be because there are 11 or 12 folks.

Agreed. 

Not to scare you all, but I'm a little nervous. I can easily see how a Bernie/Biden/Harris/Warren race results in nobody clearing the electoral hurdle to get the nomination, and the race will either be decided by superdelegates or via a brokered convention.  Bernie will get some crumbs, and the other three will each take about a third of the pie.

It could get ugly.  Biden and Bernie need to keep dropping to avoid this scenario.

[seeyalater52]

Biden has probably the worst campaign discipline of any viable candidate we have seen run in either party for decades. He is just so bad. That, combined with his known quantity status I think signals bad news for him in the polls. His supporters are mostly in because of name recognition and this biased concept of “electability” and as it becomes clear that Warren and Harris are moving up in those categories he will see even more attrition.

[seeyalater52]

Jul 2, 2019 13:35:01 GMT -5 ESF said:

Jul 2, 2019 13:25:20 GMT -5 hocus2 said:

I've looked at the newest polling. We're seeing a rapid winnow in the polls. We're going to be down to 12 to 13 or so folks who have 1% or more in polls and 9 to 10 or so who are polling at 2% or more consistently. I'm expecting a single stage for debates in September. Even if they need 2 nights it will be because there are 11 or 12 folks.

Agreed. 

Not to scare you all, but I'm a little nervous. I can easily see how a Bernie/Biden/Harris/Warren race results in nobody clearing the electoral hurdle to get the nomination, and the race will either be decided by superdelegates or via a brokered convention.  Bernie will get some crumbs, and the other three will each take about a third of the pie.

It could get ugly.  Biden and Bernie need to keep dropping to avoid this scenario.

I feel like it won’t stay this close through the convention but what do I know, that’s just speculation.