“Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) said that he plans to introduce his articles of impeachment against President Trump on Tuesday night and will force a House floor vote on them in the coming days.
Green said in a statement that he will read his articles of impeachment "before the close of the business today."”
I’d really love to see them take a stand here. Enough is enough.
I’m torn. As much as I’d love to see Trump finally held accountable, I also think the timing is bad and will ultimately hurt D’s running in red districts. We can not afford to lose anymore seats in the Senate right now. And any impeachment effort before we win a majority there is doomed to fail - which will just embolden Trump to think he can keep getting away with anything. I know you know all that - just wringing my hands over here 😣
I think pushing the issue is actually fine. I get where Pelosi is coming from, but she's also on my shit list lately. You can argue that this whole thing will be over before the 2020 election if you want. You can argue it won't go anywhere because McConnell won't hold a trial anyway. But things are just so egregious and people are so into action now, and having politicians be transparent with their beliefs, regardless of whether or not they hold traditionally popular opinions, that I think the Democratic electorate will actually be fine with it.
Post by seeyalater52 on Jul 17, 2019 6:57:29 GMT -5
I strongly believe (as does Pelosi, clearly) that pursuing impeachment in the House before the 2020 election will cause Dems to lose control of the House, and prevent the slim chance we have of taking the Senate. I have seen some internal House polling that supports this theory.
You can argue that impeachment and preserving Denocracy is more important than ensuring that the GOP doesn’t again have control of the WH and both chambers of Congress, but let’s not gloss over the material impact that this decision would have if the fallout is as expected.
It’s disingenuous to pretend that this is going to be a popular move. If they’re making a point, fine. But we will all live with the consequences (and some of us moreso than others.) For one, I think we can expect that the ACA would be completely repealed under this scenario. That is just the tip of the iceberg. How you compare that to the breakdown of our democracy is up to you, but I’m not convinced that an impeachment proceeding that will go nowhere beyond the House does a whole lot to fix the latter problem.
I strongly believe (as does Pelosi, clearly) that pursuing impeachment in the House before the 2020 election will cause Dems to lose control of the House, and prevent the slim chance we have of taking the Senate. I have seen some internal House polling that supports this theory.
You can argue that impeachment and preserving Denocracy is more important than ensuring that the GOP doesn’t again have control of the WH and both chambers of Congress, but let’s not gloss over the material impact that this decision would have if the fallout is as expected.
It’s disingenuous to pretend that this is going to be a popular move. If they’re making a point, fine. But we will all live with the consequences (and some of us moreso than others.) For one, I think we can expect that the ACA would be completely repealed under this scenario. That is just the tip of the iceberg. How you compare that to the breakdown of our democracy is up to you, but I’m not convinced that an impeachment proceeding that will go nowhere beyond the House does a whole lot to fix the latter problem.
I'm here. And I honestly am fearful for the fallout from this administration. Trump is Petty AF. He has demonstrated that repeatedly, and it's clear that there are not very many checks and balances in place right now. I would rather all hands on deck, and dedication of all Dem. resources, to be focused on removing him via election in 2020.
I JUST WANT HIM GONE, and all of the "best" people with him.
I truly don't believe impeachment is the way he will get gone, so I'm not invested in it. Sure, he deserves it. They all deserve it for supporting him, honestly. But I just need him gone and out of office, and I don't think impeachment gets me there.
I wonder if Mueller's testimony will change anything.
45’s approval rating, among his dirtbags, actually went up in the last few days. So no, they, his supporters, are locked down.
I should have clarified- I know his supporters will never support impeachment. I just wonder if more Dems might get on board once we hear from Mueller, and his soundbites are in the news, rather than hearing from a 400-page report that few actually read.
I'm seeing reactions to this all over the place. I'm fine with the articles of impeachment. The "we have to be nice nice and play by the rules" time has passed. There are no rules now. Burn the fucker down.
I strongly believe (as does Pelosi, clearly) that pursuing impeachment in the House before the 2020 election will cause Dems to lose control of the House, and prevent the slim chance we have of taking the Senate. I have seen some internal House polling that supports this theory.
You can argue that impeachment and preserving Denocracy is more important than ensuring that the GOP doesn’t again have control of the WH and both chambers of Congress, but let’s not gloss over the material impact that this decision would have if the fallout is as expected.
It’s disingenuous to pretend that this is going to be a popular move. If they’re making a point, fine. But we will all live with the consequences (and some of us moreso than others.) For one, I think we can expect that the ACA would be completely repealed under this scenario. That is just the tip of the iceberg. How you compare that to the breakdown of our democracy is up to you, but I’m not convinced that an impeachment proceeding that will go nowhere beyond the House does a whole lot to fix the latter problem.
I am here. I agree that if the world was just we'd be able to impeach Trump. But it's not, and the country is full of people who are not ride-or-die Trump but also are not following things as closely as we are, and are IMO susceptible to what is -- regrettably -- a very effective GOP messaging machine that will weaponize efforts to impeach Trump on the information that we have.
One weakness of the Democratic party and a number of its followers IMO is that there is a tendency to put idealism over practicality at least among some portions, and that leads to infighting that weakens our position. See also: Bernie supporters who didn't show up to vote for HRC for president because they were upset. Protest votes and cracks in our caucus are not luxuries we can afford right now. Similarly, given our position RIGHT NOW and the stakes RIGHT NOW, my opinion is that it is time to put practicality over idealism. We have to stop fighting amongst ourselves about impeachment or whatever and unite against the common foe of the GOP for the next election.
Also, quite frankly, if the GOP have the presidency and both houses of Congress after 2020, there's no "preserving democracy" at all. So even if that is your goal, impeachment now is very possibly winning the battle but losing the war.
Post by PinkSquirrel on Jul 17, 2019 11:17:08 GMT -5
Why do we seem to consistently forget that Nixon's approval ratings were over 50% when impeachment hearings started? Even if Trump is voted out in 2020, not impeaching based on his current behavior makes it clear future politicians can pull the same thing. I'm more worried about the longterm future of our country than simply next year. Refusing to impeach and uphold the constitution feels like the equivalent of declaring it null and void.
Why do we seem to consistently forget that Nixon's approval ratings were over 50% when impeachment hearings started? Even if Trump is voted out in 2020, not impeaching based on his current behavior makes it clear future politicians can pull the same thing. I'm more worried about the longterm future of our country than simply next year. Refusing to impeach and uphold the constitution feels like the equivalent of declaring it null and void.
This is where I am. While not anywhere close to 45's absolute dereliction of duty, I'm furious that our elected officials are not doing their jobs, which is to uphold the constitution. By refusing to hold him to account for his egregious actions, they are condoning them.
Why do we seem to consistently forget that Nixon's approval ratings were over 50% when impeachment hearings started? Even if Trump is voted out in 2020, not impeaching based on his current behavior makes it clear future politicians can pull the same thing. I'm more worried about the longterm future of our country than simply next year. Refusing to impeach and uphold the constitution feels like the equivalent of declaring it null and void.
When presented with evidence of Nixon’s wrongdoing, congressional Republicans felt compelled to act. The GOP has since lost it’s last shred of decency. Congressional Republicans today have been presented with evidence of Trump’s past wrongdoings and see it happen right in front of their faces, and they are determined to cover for him no matter what.
seeyalater52, can you explain some of the polling you’ve seen?
Here’s why I get confused/unsure about how this will all play out: we seem to all agree there are few true swing voters these days. Trump’s base is solid and will vote with him regardless. Some will hold their noses and vote, but it’s unlikely we’ll sway these people. Assuming the rest hate Trump and are willing to vote Dem, how does this action impact those voters? Are they so on the fence that they may abstain from voting?
I guess I just don’t understand they dynamics well enough.
seeyalater52, can you explain some of the polling you’ve seen?
Here’s why I get confused/unsure about how this will all play out: we seem to all agree there are few true swing voters these days. Trump’s base is solid and will vote with him regardless. Some will hold their noses and vote, but it’s unlikely we’ll sway these people. Assuming the rest hate Trump and are willing to vote Dem, how does this action impact those voters? Are they so on the fence that they may abstain from voting?
I guess I just don’t understand they dynamics well enough.
It’s not about swing voters (since as you point out that is not really a thing.) It is about vulnerable House districts/Senate seats. To keep the House a Dem majority a lot of new D reps in swing districts will need to keep their seats. Those seats are pretty damn vulnerable. Polling in the most vulnerable districts (say maybe top 30-50 most competitive) shows that voters in those districts - both democrats and republicans - see impeachment as petty political games. House leadership and MOC in those districts have concluded (rightfully so in my opinion) that a run at trying for impeachment isn’t worth the fallout, and I would be shocked if they can get to a majority in support anyways. It is just a lot of risk to take on for a hollow “victory“ that essentially changes nothing.
seeyalater52 , can you explain some of the polling you’ve seen?
Here’s why I get confused/unsure about how this will all play out: we seem to all agree there are few true swing voters these days. Trump’s base is solid and will vote with him regardless. Some will hold their noses and vote, but it’s unlikely we’ll sway these people. Assuming the rest hate Trump and are willing to vote Dem, how does this action impact those voters? Are they so on the fence that they may abstain from voting?
I guess I just don’t understand they dynamics well enough.
It’s not about swing voters (since as you point out that is not really a thing.) It is about vulnerable House districts/Senate seats. To keep the House a Dem majority a lot of new D reps in swing districts will need to keep their seats. Those seats are pretty damn vulnerable. Polling in the most vulnerable districts (say maybe top 30-50 most competitive) shows that voters in those districts - both democrats and republicans - see impeachment as petty political games. House leadership and MOC in those districts have concluded (rightfully so in my opinion) that a run at trying for impeachment isn’t worth the fallout, and I would be shocked if they can get to a majority in support anyways. It is just a lot of risk to take on for a hollow “victory“ that essentially changes nothing.
This is a political game. Impeachment has always been. I don't think it will become a victory and Trump will be out. But at some point I too think that there needs to be some stand that Congress takes to try to check Trump.
Is opposing Trump verbally as a Dem in a vulnerable house district any better than opposing him verbally and voting for an impeachment that didn't happen? I am not worried about swing voters so much as if that notable opposition of Trump brings out someone who doesn't normally vote. I guess I feel that the potential young or new voters who disagree with Trump might outweigh the backlash in the district between just opposing Trump and having also voted for impeachment.
It’s not about swing voters (since as you point out that is not really a thing.) It is about vulnerable House districts/Senate seats. To keep the House a Dem majority a lot of new D reps in swing districts will need to keep their seats. Those seats are pretty damn vulnerable. Polling in the most vulnerable districts (say maybe top 30-50 most competitive) shows that voters in those districts - both democrats and republicans - see impeachment as petty political games. House leadership and MOC in those districts have concluded (rightfully so in my opinion) that a run at trying for impeachment isn’t worth the fallout, and I would be shocked if they can get to a majority in support anyways. It is just a lot of risk to take on for a hollow “victory“ that essentially changes nothing.
This is a political game. Impeachment has always been. I don't think it will become a victory and Trump will be out. But at some point I too think that there needs to be some stand that Congress takes to try to check Trump.
Is opposing Trump verbally as a Dem in a vulnerable house district any better than opposing him verbally and voting for an impeachment that didn't happen? I am not worried about swing voters so much as if that notable opposition of Trump brings out someone who doesn't normally vote. I guess I feel that the potential young or new voters who disagree with Trump might outweigh the backlash in the district between just opposing Trump and having also voted for impeachment.
Opposing Trump is fine with most voters of both parties, and polls fine and doesn't seem to have a noticeable impact on anything. Voting for impeachment or vocally calling for impeachment is seen very differently (again, among voters of both parties.)
The data does not support your hypothesis here. I get that a lot of people *feel* that way, but at least so far, that does not appear to hold even in the polls with better samples. Banking on new voters is a really, really, really bad election strategy because their voting patterns are unpredictable, turning them out is very expensive and difficult, and their choices fairly arbitrary compared to reliable voters. I do not think for a second that impeachment is going to bring out new voters, or if it did, that it would make up for the voters who would not vote or potentially vote for a GOP challenger.
Post by seeyalater52 on Jul 17, 2019 14:32:50 GMT -5
I am neutral about impeachment when it comes down to it. But I will say, everyone is always yelling about how they want the Democrats to be smarter and better-messaged, and there is quite a lot to indicate that the more politically savvy, better-messaged and most effective approach here is not to try to do this pre-election.
The upholding the constitution thing feels beside the point to me, because regardless of what the House does, Trump will remain in office.
ETA: LOL to anyone who wants to characterize my position as being one of fear. I go toe to toe with these people all day every day. I'm not afraid of them.
Why do we seem to consistently forget that Nixon's approval ratings were over 50% when impeachment hearings started? Even if Trump is voted out in 2020, not impeaching based on his current behavior makes it clear future politicians can pull the same thing. I'm more worried about the longterm future of our country than simply next year. Refusing to impeach and uphold the constitution feels like the equivalent of declaring it null and void.
When presented with evidence of Nixon’s wrongdoing, congressional Republicans felt compelled to act. The GOP has since lost it’s last shred of decency. Congressional Republicans today have been presented with evidence of Trump’s past wrongdoings and see it happen right in front of their faces, and they are determined to cover for him no matter what.
Politicians change their minds pretty quickly when enough constituents start squawking at them. There are numerous examples during Trump's presidency of the people pushing back hard enough to shut things down. I feel like right now we're making it easy for the GOP to behave in this manner by never holding anyone accountable (ie Why is no one locked up for ignoring congressional subpoenas?). Constituents don't read 400 page reports, hell even most people in here don't seem to have read all, that's why we need hearings, it's easy for someone who has historically believed the GOP to trust their take on a 400 page document, it's much harder when a clearer picture is painted. I'm tired of Democrats operating based on fear and am not interested in that as an excuse for abandoning the duties laid out within the constitution.
I am neutral about impeachment when it comes down to it. But I will say, everyone is always yelling about how they want the Democrats to be smarter and better-messaged, and there is quite a lot to indicate that the more politically savvy, better-messaged and most effective approach here is not to try to do this pre-election.
The upholding the constitution thing feels beside the point to me, because regardless of what the House does, Trump will remain in office.
My biggest complaint about the Democratic party has been that they're limp noodles with no real fight in them - sure better messaging is part of that, but it's mostly that they lack the aggressiveness the GOP has been rolling with for decades. That's why we've given up so much in the last 30-40 years and why I'm confident the GOP would have started impeachment hearings in January if they were in our shoes. We've been going this current direction for long enough (I don't actually see the current strategy as all that different from any strategy the Dems have had for decades) , it's done us no good, it's time to fight fire with fire.
Do you think Clinton's impeachment was completely meaningless because he wasn't removed from office or you want to do anything in your power to remove Trump? I'm hoping it's the latter and while I agree with that, Trump is not the only problem. Even if we remove Trump, McConnell and friends will likely still be around to destroy whats left, which is why I'm much more interested in taking them all down. I think impeachment is much more likely to expose a broader swath of bad behavior and get people out than trying really hard to win seats in 2020 will.