Primary Chatter week of 3/9

[pugz]

Booker endorsed Biden today.

Tuesday’s primaries are:
Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi,Missouri, ND, and Washington.

[aurora]

This article

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-rest-of-the-primary-calendar-looks-for-biden-and-sanders/amp/

Says that Biden is definitely leading, but of the remaining days of primaries tomorrow is Bernie's best chance. It has breakdowns by date/state.

[mbcdefg]

Don’t know where else to post this:


Montana Governor Steve Bullock announces he will run for Senate, boosting Democrats’ fortunes in their bid to claim Senate majority

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/montana-gov-steve-bullock-to-run-for-senate-in-boon-for-democrats/2020/03/09/7b19b7b6-5e5d-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html

[was5]

Detroit Free Press poll shows a big lead for Biden ahead of tomorrow's primary, but the same poll showed HRC with a big lead before Sanders won by a very small margin in 2016
I hope the poll is right this time.

www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/09/polls-joe-biden-holds-lead-over-bernie-sanders-michigan-primaries/4994142002/

[Bernadine]

I've started volunteering for Biden. I've sent some texts, but my heart is not fully in it. And the difference in organization between the Biden and Warren campaigns is....something.

[Bernadine]

Mar 9, 2020 10:34:07 GMT -5 jeaniebueller said:

Mar 9, 2020 10:26:34 GMT -5 Bernadine said:

I've started volunteering for Biden. I've sent some texts, but my heart is not fully in it. And the difference in organization between the Biden and Warren campaigns is....something.

I haven't volunteered for either but from what i see in campaign texts, i agree. I had a few nice text discussions with someone from Pete's campaign and Warren's campaign. The Biden campaign seems to only be doing automated scripts and not really responding well to them.

They're not responding because they're paying by the character. Like, what? I don't get it. it really discourages engaging conversation.

[heat40]

I'm a little nervous the coronavirus thing is overwhelming the news (as it should), and there isn't enough buzz around Biden's endorsements or any momentum on his super tuesday win. Voting is tomorrow, he gets Michigan and its a done deal.

I could just be letting my nerves get to me though.

[WOT?*]

WA is showing a lead for Biden over Sanders.

It pisses me off after four years of "Washington supported Bernie with 75% of the vote/delegates" when, in actual fact, Clinton beat Sanders in the "but it doesn't count!!!!!" mail in primaries weeks later at about the current spread; it was 53% Hillary and 47% Sanders in the 2016 (but it doesn't count) primary. They still hold to the caucus math numbers to show that he should be the undisputed winner of Washington. I so darn hope that he gets a commanding victory over Sanders so they'll shut the heck up. (They won't. They're already starting with the Rigged DNC. And today was "those Bezos people" when referring to a Sanders "populist like Trump" story in the WaPo.)

[cous0226]

Mar 9, 2020 16:28:43 GMT -5 heat40 said:

I'm a little nervous the coronavirus thing is overwhelming the news (as it should), and there isn't enough buzz around Biden's endorsements or any momentum on his super tuesday win. Voting is tomorrow, he gets Michigan and its a done deal.

I could just be letting my nerves get to me though.

I think he is way ahead in the polls. Sanders is on Cuomo right now and he is yelling as usual. Doesn’t seem too confident.

[underwaterrhymes]

It’s super fascinating to look at FiveThirtyEight. They’ve swung 180 degrees in the opposite direction from what they were predicting two weeks ago.

[fernweh]

Voting in Michigan today. I heard my first (non Bloomberg) ad on the radio this morning. It was a Bernie one with sound clips of Obama talking about how great he is, it made my blood boil.

H voted this morning and said there was no line at all. I plan to go this afternoon.
Is there any thoughts/speculation that covid-19 fears will keep people from going to the polls? I certainly hope not.

[aurora]

Mar 10, 2020 7:43:24 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

It’s super fascinating to look at FiveThirtyEight. They’ve swung 180 degrees in the opposite direction from what they were predicting two weeks ago.

I like how they explain their methods so you can understand why their predictions change like that, even if you're not a statistician.

[AAM2012]

Mar 10, 2020 7:54:37 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Voting in Michigan today. I heard my first (non Bloomberg) ad on the radio this morning. It was a Bernie one with sound clips of Obama talking about how great he is, it made my blood boil.

H voted this morning and said there was no line at all. I plan to go this afternoon.
Is there any thoughts/speculation that covid-19 fears will keep people from going to the polls? I certainly hope not.

All were getting in AZ is a Bernie commercial where Biden talks of cutting Medicare and social security.

[anodyne]

I made a video this morning about the importance of voting and then got turned away because I wasn’t in the system even though I’ve voted there for 11 years, including for myself four times! Go figure, but that’s okay. We’ll be back later today! #Vote #KCMO t.co/3mYNrO6jmC

www.google.com/amp/s/www.kctv5.com/politics/poll-workers-mistakenly-turn-away-kansas-city-mayor-on-election/article_8e2b2c5e-62cc-11ea-89ac-1ba48ed21669.amp.html

[mbcdefg]

Sanders cancels Cleveland rally over coronavirus concerns, says future rallies to be decided on case by case basis.

[Bernadine]

Biden has also cancelled his rally tonight.

[downtoearth]

Mar 9, 2020 9:42:05 GMT -5 mbcdefg said:

Don’t know where else to post this:


Montana Governor Steve Bullock announces he will run for Senate, boosting Democrats’ fortunes in their bid to claim Senate majority

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/montana-gov-steve-bullock-to-run-for-senate-in-boon-for-democrats/2020/03/09/7b19b7b6-5e5d-11ea-b014-4fafa866bb81_story.html

Yeah and all our other Dems pretty much bowed out and endorsed him. So we have a chance!!!!!

[downtoearth]

Mar 10, 2020 7:43:24 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

It’s super fascinating to look at FiveThirtyEight. They’ve swung 180 degrees in the opposite direction from what they were predicting two weeks ago.

But it's not unexpected b/c the algorithms and statistics change with each poll and each primary/caucus and so many people have dropped out and we had some surprising primary wins. So they are designed to change as people start weighing in and get closer to the reality as we get closer to the primary. IMO it's great that they are only forecasting based on stat changes that are happening at the electoral level and not pundit talk. 

[heat40]

Biden wins Mississippi.

[underwaterrhymes]

Mar 10, 2020 19:01:29 GMT -5 heat40 said:

Biden wins Mississippi.

And Missouri!

[eclaires]

[heat40]

Michigan makes me nervous. I just want to fast forward to the convention!

[Deleted]

Mar 10, 2020 19:19:27 GMT -5 heat40 said:

Michigan makes me nervous. I just want to fast forward to the convention!

Related: I’m starting to think the convention itself is going to be a much scaled down affair because of coronavirus. It makes me so sad for my city. A lot of people sneered at it being the choice, but the city has been working really hard to make sure things go well. We have a lot of awesome things to showcase, and I know local businesses were planning on a lot of business.

[timorousbeastie]

Just wanted to share the stickers that many precincts in Oakland County, MI were handing out today in addition to the regular I Voted stickers:

[cous0226]

David Wasserman just called Michigan for Biden!

[cous0226]

[cous0226]

Bernie needs to get the fuck out now. I know he hated Hillary but he doesn’t hate Biden. He needs to close this shit down. It’s over for the fucking bros. If he won Michigan he would have stayed in but he needs to get out now.

[karinothing]

Mar 10, 2020 19:26:56 GMT -5 @angryharpy said:

Mar 10, 2020 19:19:27 GMT -5 heat40 said:

Michigan makes me nervous. I just want to fast forward to the convention!

Related: I’m starting to think the convention itself is going to be a much scaled down affair because of coronavirus. It makes me so sad for my city. A lot of people sneered at it being the choice, but the city has been working really hard to make sure things go well. We have a lot of awesome things to showcase, and I know local businesses were planning on a lot of business.

Hopefully things will have dropped dramatically by then

[eclaires]

It’s time to go, Bernie.

Democrats have spoken and you aren’t it. Bye.

[Deleted]

Even Chris Hayes, who is always so soft on Bernie, just said Bernie is getting creamed by black voters and that you can’t win a Democratic primary without them.