At an instinct level, who do you think will win in 2024?

[sonrisa]

Not who do you want to win. Not what does analysis or logic or polling or common sense say. When you are honest with your gut feelings, what do you think?

[StrawberryBlondie]

Highly dependent on who the R candidate is. I can see a theoretical R win but with the vast majority of the current clown car, my money would be on Biden.

If it's Biden v Trump 2.0, I definitely think Biden.

[jinkies]

We were just talking about this.

My H, who generally has an excellent read on people and complex situations, really thinks that Trump would win a Biden/Trump rematch.

I want to believe it's Biden, but people are consistently disappointing.

[MixedBerryJam]

I thinkhope the improving economy and the generalized insanity coming from the Rs re social and cultural issues will make what should be a landslide for Biden in normal times into at least a squeaker for Biden, if that makes sense. (I would not bet real actual money on it tho.)

[Bad Dingo]

Biden beat Trump by 7million+ votes, I feel confident he would be able to accomplish the same if not better results in 2024.

[pixy0stix]

Abortion access is still in play. I think that's going to drive voting numbers in several states still trying to restrict (or having already restricted) access. I haven't kept up lately with what states are including abortion access in the general election next year, but I imagine there's going to be several.

[Michelle]

Depends on how well the racists can rally and what happens with jobs and interest rates between now and then. A lot can happen.

[Jalapeñomel]

I think Biden will beat Trump as long as people don’t get complacent.

I don’t think there’s anyway young people will vote for Trump.

[dcn]

I’m surrounded by conservatives and I don’t think Trump will win but they do not like Biden (at ALL, not even a little) so they would likely vote for any other Republican.

[goldengirlz]

I agree with pixy0stix that abortion will drive turnout, which in turn will help the Dems. Arizona in particular is a swing state to watch. (https://apnews.com/article/abortion-arizona-ballot-voters-2024)

Biden also has the incumbent’s advantage.

So, Biden.

[lust2hart]

Aug 28, 2023 10:42:26 GMT -5 StrawberryBlondie said:

Highly dependent on who the R candidate is. I can see a theoretical R win but with the vast majority of the current clown car, my money would be on Biden.

If it's Biden v Trump 2.0, I definitely think Biden.

I mostly agree, except I think any Republican besides Trump would win. But I think Trump will be the nominee, and Biden will beat Trump.

[ellipses84]

I think Dems will win based on demographics and the most recent voting history. GenZ and Millennials combined are finally a larger group than boomers and we overwhelmingly support so many major issues opposite to the R platform. Every day there are more Gen Z of voting age and less boomers due to death, with 2 years until the election. I think Jan 6 and R extremism has pushed away even people who voted R in the 2020 election. The state elections on abortion rights are telling. More people are being personally impacted by climate change natural disasters (and even if people don’t believe the reason it’s clear these events are more frequent and there needs to be Gov’t preparation and response, not ignorance). Eta: And Gun Control is a huge issue for this demographic who’ve been the primary target of mass shootings with nothing meaningful being done and the problem only getting worse.

We’ll still see a ton of people voting R against their own best interest in red states but I think the dumpster fire cult is smaller than they want it to seem and has lost support due to people facing or witnessing the consequences of being a supporter (financial ruin, jail, etc.). A lot of red states are turning purple and TX and FL have Governors doing evil things. I think more moderate Rs who can’t bear to vote D won’t vote. I don’t think D’s will be apathetically optimistic, so they will turn out in record numbers to vote.

I know there’s a lot of criticism for Biden but he really has done a lot for student loan forgiveness and infrastructure and anything he hasn’t been able to do can be blamed on Rs in the House and Senate. God forbid if he can’t serve another full 4 years, then we get Kamala Harris as our first female President.

[basilosaurus]

I don't trust people to not be horrible. Which means trump. But I also think the young folk will come out which means Biden. They made the red wave a mere pink hiccup.

Honestly I'm at the coin toss stage

[seeyalater52]

If the election were held today I think Biden would win. But over a year is a lifetime for politics so I don’t put much stock in that.

I agree that reproductive rights will drive some turnout and Gen Z voting could be a game changer but I also think we need to be realistic about the role that voter suppression plays in tipping the scales.

[sonrisa]

Aug 28, 2023 12:09:19 GMT -5 ellipses84 said:

I think Dems will win based on demographics and the most recent voting history. GenZ and Millennials combined are finally a larger group than boomers and we overwhelmingly support so many major issues opposite to the R platform. Every day there are more Gen Z of voting age and less boomers due to death, with 2 years until the election. I think Jan 6 and R extremism has pushed away even people who voted R in the 2020 election.

But unfortunately, all those groups are moving to the right. A person born in 1984 was almost as likely to vote republican in 2020 as a person born in 1965 was in 2012. 
www.nytimes.com/2023/06/01/upshot/millennials-polling-politics-republicans.html

[msmerymac]

I find it hard to imagine Trump would pick up MORE voters than he got in 2020, although I supposed some people will age into voting (that coveted 18-22 demographic, lol), but if another Republican runs I think they will pick up Trump voters and probably others who are dissatisfied with Biden. Cornell West or a No Labels candidate would also shift away from Biden, IMO.

There are definitely a lot of Trump voters who are not into politics, who are not into policy, and are only interested in the Trump Cult of Personality. Some may not vote if Trump isn't on the ballot, but many will probably still vote GOP.

And yeah, Biden won by 7 million votes, but he also only won by about 100,000, or less, depending on how you look at it.

[neverfstop]

IF the R's some how manage to nominate somebody beside trump, their base is going to be so pissed and not turn out or actively trash the new GOP nominee.

My biggest worry is that Trump picks a normal(ish) VP after he get the nomination, and then he dies or goes to jail before the election so that more people would vote for that ticket knowing that the VP would really be the actual person being sworn in.

[kadams767]

Aug 28, 2023 12:25:59 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

IF the R's some how manage to nominate somebody beside trump, their base is going to be so pissed and not turn out or actively trash the new GOP nominee.

My biggest worry is that Trump picks a normal(ish) VP after he get the nomination, and then he dies or goes to jail before the election so that more people would vote for that ticket knowing that the VP would really be the actual person being sworn in.

I agree with the first part of this.  The same way that Trump puts no real effort or value in helping other R candidates, and is only about himself, I think there are a lot of Trump voters that are only-Trumpers.  I can see a lot of them staying home in 2024 if he is not the nominee.  I don't know if the never-Trump Rs that would swing back outnumber them, either.

[somersault72]

I think there are plenty of people who don't like Biden, but the Republican party seems really fractured right now, between the people that are over Trump (or were never for Trump in the first place) and the people that will never be over Trump. I could potentially see a lot of "third party" (ie different Republican) candidates come out of the woodwork for 2024 that could help Biden win.

[gardengal]

My mom & grandmother, in FL, who are very socially conservative & religious & are typically very anti-abortion (except in cases of rape or incest) are rabidly mad Rs have come after women's bodies. It's...amazing to witness honestly. It's just like crap has piled up & they are NOT here for it.

[neverfstop]

Aug 28, 2023 13:07:03 GMT -5 somersault72 said:

I think there are plenty of people who don't like Biden, but the Republican party seems really fractured right now, between the people that are over Trump (or were never for Trump in the first place) and the people that will never be over Trump. I could potentially see a lot of "third party" (ie different Republican) candidates come out of the woodwork for 2024 that could help Biden win.

See, I think any 3rd party run would really hurt Biden. In a Trump vs Biden, Biden wins....he's done it before, under worse circumstances.  The economy is on it's way back, inflation is down, he's done a decent job, and Trump has insane uphill legal battle & ltos of people ARE tired of him.  A third party run would take votes from both trump & biden, which would be bad for Biden. 

[mcsangel2]

Assuming Biden v Trump, Biden for sure. I really thought Trump was going to win in 2020 and I'm feeling much more confident this time around.

With any other Republican candidate, I feel like there's not enough data now to guess.

Should anything happen to Biden before the election and Harris runs in his place, I would expect the Republican nom to win whoever it is.

[UMaineTeach]

I think the Republican, Trump or someone else.

[k3am]

I continue to not be confident Biden makes it to the next election. And that leaves you with D options of.. Harris? RFK Jr? Newsom?

[Jalapeñomel]

Aug 28, 2023 15:09:45 GMT -5 k3am said:

I continue to not be confident Biden makes it to the next election. And that leaves you with D options of.. Harris? RFK Jr? Newsom?

I can’t imagine the Dems putting up an anti-vaxer conspiracy theorist, but maybe I’m wrong.

[k3am]

Jalapeñomel, but because D's refuse to admit that Joe might not be their guy, the playing field is pretty bare at the moment.

[pixy0stix]

Aug 28, 2023 15:09:45 GMT -5 k3am said:

I continue to not be confident Biden makes it to the next election. And that leaves you with D options of.. Harris? RFK Jr? Newsom?

What does this mean? You think he's going to die?

[circa1978]

I have no faith, at all, in my instincts after 2016.

[k3am]

Aug 28, 2023 15:39:36 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Aug 28, 2023 15:09:45 GMT -5 k3am said:

I continue to not be confident Biden makes it to the next election. And that leaves you with D options of.. Harris? RFK Jr? Newsom?

What does this mean? You think he's going to die?

Ideally, he realizes/admits that he is potentially not up for the demands of the job. The man is 80 years old, he's slowing down, and realistically should be retired. I know no one on this board likes it when people point that out, but that is how I feel. 

I would make the same comments about Trump, but we all know that hate and bitterness will keep him alive for years to come. (To be clear, I'd prefer Trump not be in the election also, but there's no chance of him bowing out on his own.)

[pixy0stix]

As of right now the D candidates are: Biden, Williamson, and RFK Jr. www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/politics/presidential-candidates-2024.html

I'm sad that it's the D's turn to host the anti-vaxx nutjobs.