LA-Vegas Rail Groundbreaking

[bee20]

Brightline, the same company that currently runs a Miami to Orlando 125mph rail line, broke ground on their LA area to Vegas line that they hope to open by the 2028 LA Olympics.

This hadn't really been on my radar, do we think it's going to happen?  Has anyone used the Florida line or able to speak to its pros or cons?

thehill.com/regulation/transportation/4613210-groundbreaking-ceremony-held-for-high-speed-train-from-las-vegas-to-los-angeles/

Another article says the CEO claims tickets may cost $400 round trip, which seems like it would still encourage families or bachelorette groups to drive.  I don't live in LA and haven't been to Vegas as an adult, so I'm probably not the target audience, but I'd love the proposed west coast rail connecting LA to Vancouver.

ETA: Because I was curious about what a network would look like, another article says similar speeds could get NYC->Chicago, Chicago->Denver, and Denver->LA legs in 5-6 hours each.

[mrspez07]

Umm, Denver to LA would have to go over or through those same mountains that we’re talking about in the bridge thread that limits routes because of topography. I think that leg would be a bit longer…

[aurora]

Apr 22, 2024 22:46:16 GMT -5 mrspez07 said:

Umm, Denver to LA would have to go over or through those same mountains that we’re talking about in the bridge thread that limits routes because of topography. I think that leg would be a bit longer…

Even besides topography, there's math. A quick web search showed both Denver to Chicago and Denver to LA are about 1000 miles, so at the noted speed of 125 mph you're looking at 8 hours. Sure, the trains might go a slightly different route than the highways, but not enough to cut off 2-3 hours.

(I'd love more train options. Just trying to keep a realistic expectation about the very large distances in the American West.)

ETA mea culpa - I got the 125 mph from the post but now realize it was from the Florida train, whereas the new one will be 180mph. I no longer object on the basis of math alone. 😄

[wanderingback]

This is great. I hope construction goes ok and it’s a success.

The article says currently 15 million trips in the car occur on this route and they estimate it will cut down 3 million trips. Anyone who does urban planning know how they determine these type of estimates?

[mcppalmbeach]

We have used it in Florida several times. For me, traveling to a destination like Orlando is usually with three kids in tow so it doesn’t make financial or logistical sense. It’s at minimum $100 for a round trip ticket at convenient times so $500 for a family of 5. The infrastructure of Orlando is not really set up well for this kind of thing, though there are shuttles to the Disney resorts so that helps if that’s the only thing in your plans. Miami and Fort Lauderdale are set up better. The trains and stations themselves are very clean, comfortable and well appointed. It is kind of crazy how many people have died in Brightline accidents since the train started running.

[lessel]

Apr 23, 2024 7:11:17 GMT -5 mcppalmbeach said:

We have used it in Florida several times. For me, traveling to a destination like Orlando is usually with three kids in tow so it doesn’t make financial or logistical sense. It’s at minimum $100 for a round trip ticket at convenient times so $500 for a family of 5. The infrastructure of Orlando is not really set up well for this kind of thing, though there are shuttles to the Disney resorts so that helps if that’s the only thing in your plans. Miami and Fort Lauderdale are set up better. The trains and stations themselves are very clean, comfortable and well appointed. It is kind of crazy how many people have died in Brightline accidents since the train started running.

This is the first thing that came to my mind. It's... a lot. Here's a list I found:

www.miaminewtimes.com/news/death-train-a-timeline-of-brightline-deaths-in-miami-fort-lauderdale-west-palm-beach-13717396 

Here's another story from awhile back that I remembered: www.tampabay.com/news/florida/2022/02/16/after-57-deaths-brightline-in-florida-pleads-with-people-to-stop-dangerous-crossings/

I think this is the general theme of a lot of these stories: "Investigators found none of the deaths were the railroad’s fault, determining that many were suicides or drivers or pedestrians trying to beat the trains."

But... at some point it seems like there HAS to be an engineering solution here.

[mpc]

I get stopped by the brightline train all the time now. Thankfully it's a super quick stop, unlike the freight trains that go through here. I've considered taking the train to try it out, but it's an hour drive to the nearest station, in the wrong direction, which makes it seem kind of silly. There is talk of adding a station local to me, which I think would be great. Although, once I get down to Miami, I'm not sure what to do there without a car. That's the challenge with getting people to choose trains right.

I feel like we see news stories every other week about someone who has died on the tracks. Most are probably suicides, but I've also seen stories about crossing arms not coming down at times. Yikes.

[mcppalmbeach]

Apr 23, 2024 9:15:23 GMT -5 mpc said:

I get stopped by the brightline train all the time now. Thankfully it's a super quick stop, unlike the freight trains that go through here. I've considered taking the train to try it out, but it's an hour drive to the nearest station, in the wrong direction, which makes it seem kind of silly. There is talk of adding a station local to me, which I think would be great. Although, once I get down to Miami, I'm not sure what to do there without a car. That's the challenge with getting people to choose trains right.

I feel like we see news stories every other week about someone who has died on the tracks. Most are probably suicides, but I've also seen stories about crossing arms not coming down at times. Yikes.

I’m trying to figure out what city you are in now 😂. If you have kids, the museum of discovery and science is basically right where the fll station is and the frost museum is a quick (free) trip on the metro mover. If you don’t have kids, las olas is not far from the station and there’s some kind of shuttle electric car that used to be free but now has a nominal fee. In Miami, the Perez art museum and bayside are quick metro mover trips also.

[livinitup]

Just yesterday, I took an Amtrak train with 2 kids into NYC (about 5 hours). My teenager wanted the experience and absolutely loved it. All 3 tickets were the price of 1 for flying.

It’s ridiculously easy to get on/off a train. If you add up all the extra time for parking, security, gate waiting, fly time, taxi to gate, and then transportation into NYC - the timing is actually close & the train experience is so much more enjoyable.

I agree with the experts who say using long distance train transportation is all about the infrastructure at the city destination. If we nail that, then we are going to get high utilization.

[lessel]

mpc Re: 'most are probably suicides.' This is more in response to a lot of the news coverage, and not your post (just made me think of it). A lot of coverage of suicide incidents sort of gives the impression that the these deaths by suicide are either somehow inevitable or not the responsibility of the train company... there's a lot of science about lethal means reduction in suicide and prevention really is possible. A good analogy might be bridge barriers (https://afsp.org/bridge-barriers/).

[k3am]

I can get a round trip flight from LA to Vegas for $230-$250 depending on airport, 1 hour 10 mins each way. I don't think a $400 round trip ticket that takes 5+ hours is incentive enough for many people to take the train.

[ssuubee]

The biggest problem with Brightline is the grade crossings. Between Orlando and Miami there are 315 (per one source) crossings (aka street with arms/lights). There was a lot of press before they started running, and most of the crossings (where I am) have signs noting "fast trains." So Brightline in Florida has a lot of opportunities. Brightline laid new tracks to get from Orlando to the coast, but then is using existing (freight) tracks from Cocoa south to Miami.

Not sure the route between LA and Vegas...what combination of new and existing tracks might be used.

[mcppalmbeach]

Apr 23, 2024 10:48:36 GMT -5 k3am said:

I can get a round trip flight from LA to Vegas for $230-$250 depending on airport, 1 hour 10 mins each way. I don't think a $400 round trip ticket that takes 5+ hours is incentive enough for many people to take the train.

It will be interesting to me to see how it all works out when the sort of initial stage money/promotion goes away also, kind of like what happened with Uber. They have been doing a lot of discounts and programs to promote ridership. The last few summers they have had a program where kids ride free or heavily discounted and then get admission to local attractions free. And it made total sense for me to spend $70 between my ticket and parking to take the train down and get into museums for me and my three kids. That’s going to be a little harder to swallow when it costs us more like $220 just for transportation when I could drive down for more like $80 plus admission fees.

[wawa]

Apr 23, 2024 7:24:38 GMT -5 lessel said:

Apr 23, 2024 7:11:17 GMT -5 mcppalmbeach said:

We have used it in Florida several times. For me, traveling to a destination like Orlando is usually with three kids in tow so it doesn’t make financial or logistical sense. It’s at minimum $100 for a round trip ticket at convenient times so $500 for a family of 5. The infrastructure of Orlando is not really set up well for this kind of thing, though there are shuttles to the Disney resorts so that helps if that’s the only thing in your plans. Miami and Fort Lauderdale are set up better. The trains and stations themselves are very clean, comfortable and well appointed. It is kind of crazy how many people have died in Brightline accidents since the train started running.

This is the first thing that came to my mind. It's... a lot. Here's a list I found:

www.miaminewtimes.com/news/death-train-a-timeline-of-brightline-deaths-in-miami-fort-lauderdale-west-palm-beach-13717396 

Here's another story from awhile back that I remembered: www.tampabay.com/news/florida/2022/02/16/after-57-deaths-brightline-in-florida-pleads-with-people-to-stop-dangerous-crossings/

I think this is the general theme of a lot of these stories: "Investigators found none of the deaths were the railroad’s fault, determining that many were suicides or drivers or pedestrians trying to beat the trains."

But... at some point it seems like there HAS to be an engineering solution here.

I mean...they're trying: 

from your second link: 

In response to the accidents, Brightline has installed infrared detectors to warn engineers if anyone is lurking near the tracks so they can slow down or stop. The company has added more fencing and landscaping to make track access more difficult, and is installing red-light cameras at crossings to enable police to ticket drivers who go around guardrails. It is testing drones to monitor the tracks.

from this story: 

Brightline President Patrick Goddard said while the deaths are not the company’s fault, he and his colleagues need to get the number under control.



“This is something we obsess about. ... It’s tragic,” said Goddard.



He said each death devastates Brightline’s crew members and interrupts operations, sometimes for hours.



“There is nothing we would want more than for that number to go to zero,” he said.



The company is working with suicide prevention groups and will experiment with infrared motion detectors and drones to patrol tracks. The drones will have cameras to spot people lingering, as those contemplating suicide often do, and speakers through which drone monitors can speak with them. The monitors also will alert police and warn engineers.



The company is also erecting fences and plant barriers in problem areas, putting up four-way gates at major road crossings and talking with cities about eliminating side-street crossings. Signs advertising suicide prevention hotlines will be posted.



“There are few railroads you will find who have done more to mitigate these types of issues,” Goddard said.

What I wasn't able to find (at least not quickly) was which way the numbers are trending.  are those measures working?  


High speed grade crossings are a big issue. everybody is so used to CSX and amtrak trains putt putting their way through town where you can just squeak through and you'll be blocked for 10 minutes if you don't - these high speed crossings are a whole other animal behavior wise.  

I am excited about new train projects breaking ground.  There's been a ton of investment from the feds on this, and i'm super super here for it.  Bachelorette parties in the desert wouldn't be my first choice of a sustainable example, but whatever, I'll take it.

[wanderingback]

Apr 23, 2024 10:48:36 GMT -5 k3am said:

I can get a round trip flight from LA to Vegas for $230-$250 depending on airport, 1 hour 10 mins each way. I don't think a $400 round trip ticket that takes 5+ hours is incentive enough for many people to take the train.

The article posted specifically talked about how it will reduce car trips and mentioned nothing about flights.

That’s why I asked my question about in regards to if anyone is an urban planner that knows how they decide these type of calculations. I assume part of the calculation is figuring out if it’s going to significant affect car travel, air travel or both.

[wawa]

Apr 23, 2024 12:33:05 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

Apr 23, 2024 10:48:36 GMT -5 k3am said:

I can get a round trip flight from LA to Vegas for $230-$250 depending on airport, 1 hour 10 mins each way. I don't think a $400 round trip ticket that takes 5+ hours is incentive enough for many people to take the train.

The article posted specifically talked about how it will reduce car trips and mentioned nothing about flights.

That’s why I asked my question about in regards to if anyone is an urban planner that knows how they decide these type of calculations. I assume part of the calculation is figuring out if it’s going to significant affect car travel, air travel or both.

It's usually based on computer modeling that takes into account existing travel patterns, trip duration, cost and assumptions about travel behavior that balances those factors against a general gravity model looking at where things are and where people want to be.  Most of the models I'm familiar with focus less on taking into account flying as an option because the cost and time sink are both so variable but I would assume that there are numbers somewhere in this project documentation that went to the feds to get funding about how many trips they'd expect to pull from flights.  It's just probably not as impressive a number, and the sky isn't as "crowded" as LA highways so they don't cite it as much. 

With any model though, the outputs are only as good as the inputs and assumptions.

eta:

wanderingback I was looking for something else and found a more detailed answer to this.  The background modeling on ridership is not being publicly released, and was done by a specialty firm (and then reviewed by the FRA) but they're assuming only 17% of the trips pulled from existing modes would be from air.

railroads.dot.gov/elibrary/attachment-operating-assumptions-memo  (last page)

[wawa]

re: safety - I was looking on the project website for more info and saw that there are zero grade crossings planned for this one. So while we could still have the suicide issue, this line at least won't have the walkers and drivers going around gates to beat the train.

I'm sure that contributes to the high cost, but seems like a great upgrade.

[starlily]

As someone very familiar with the drive in the area that will require new tracks, I'm really curious about the safety of a high speed train through the Cajon Pass, which is quite steep. I haven't really come across anything yet that explains exactly how they're going to handle the pass.

Otherwise, I'd welcome the additional option. Driving will still be almost as efficient for us (3hrs) as long as it's not a Friday or Sunday, but if train tickets are cheaper than plane tickets on those high traffic days I'd look into it.

[wanderingback]

Apr 23, 2024 12:52:04 GMT -5 wawa said:

Apr 23, 2024 12:33:05 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

The article posted specifically talked about how it will reduce car trips and mentioned nothing about flights.

That’s why I asked my question about in regards to if anyone is an urban planner that knows how they decide these type of calculations. I assume part of the calculation is figuring out if it’s going to significant affect car travel, air travel or both.

It's usually based on computer modeling that takes into account existing travel patterns, trip duration, cost and assumptions about travel behavior that balances those factors against a general gravity model looking at where things are and where people want to be.  Most of the models I'm familiar with focus less on taking into account flying as an option because the cost and time sink are both so variable but I would assume that there are numbers somewhere in this project documentation that went to the feds to get funding about how many trips they'd expect to pull from flights.  It's just probably not as impressive a number, and the sky isn't as "crowded" as LA highways so they don't cite it as much. 

With any model though, the outputs are only as good as the inputs and assumptions.

eta:

wanderingback I was looking for something else and found a more detailed answer to this.  The background modeling on ridership is not being publicly released, and was done by a specialty firm (and then reviewed by the FRA) but they're assuming only 17% of the trips pulled from existing modes would be from air.

railroads.dot.gov/elibrary/attachment-operating-assumptions-memo  (last page)

Thank you!

[bugandbibs]

Apr 23, 2024 17:41:25 GMT -5 starlily said:

As someone very familiar with the drive in the area that will require new tracks, I'm really curious about the safety of a high speed train through the Cajon Pass, which is quite steep. I haven't really come across anything yet that explains exactly how they're going to handle the pass.

Otherwise, I'd welcome the additional option. Driving will still be almost as efficient for us (3hrs) as long as it's not a Friday or Sunday, but if train tickets are cheaper than plane tickets on those high traffic days I'd look into it.

I’d consider it for not having TSA liquid restrictions for my carry on and not having to pay for parking my car at the hotel. I like being able to work or relax during the train ride.

[basilosaurus]

Apr 23, 2024 17:41:25 GMT -5 starlily said:

As someone very familiar with the drive in the area that will require new tracks, I'm really curious about the safety of a high speed train through the Cajon Pass, which is quite steep. I haven't really come across anything yet that explains exactly how they're going to handle the pass.

Otherwise, I'd welcome the additional option. Driving will still be almost as efficient for us (3hrs) as long as it's not a Friday or Sunday, but if train tickets are cheaper than plane tickets on those high traffic days I'd look into it.

I don't know that pass specifically, but lots of Japan is mountainous, and I'm guessing they share data in the industry. I think what they do is just slow the train on those sections. I know they utilize high bridges and long tunnels to limit elevation changes. 

[devonpow]

I just took the bright line from Boca Raton to Orlando with my kid last week and loved it. We take the train from Boston to NYC alp

[devonpow]

I just took the bright line from Boca Raton to Orlando with my kid last week and loved it. We take the train from Boston to NYC all the time and I just love the ease of trains - we fly a lot as well and airports/airlines are such a pain in the ass that if there is a train option I’ll take it.

As someone without a car I think encouraging high speed trains is a great idea wherever we can.

[macmars45]

I'd love a high speed train from eastern/central WA to western WA (Seattle) and would 100% use it.

[picksthemusic]

Apr 27, 2024 13:17:50 GMT -5 macmars45 said:

I'd love a high speed train from eastern/central WA to western WA (Seattle) and would 100% use it.

I'd love one from Seattle to Spokane! I'd use that too. To not have to drive 5 hours on I90? Yes please.