Top GOP Pollster to Repubs: Reverse on Gay Issues

[Deleted]

Found this on Andrew Sullivan when a band I like retweeted it with the comment, "Top GOP pollster advises the GOP not to be irredeemable assholes about gay marriage."

I think the bolded is key. I remember growing up in a conservative environment and thinking that being gay was bad. And then I grew up, and I met gay people. And I became friends with them. And now I cannot even fathom my gay friends not having the same legal rights and protections that I do.

andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/05/top-gop-pollster-to-gop-reverse-on-gay-issues.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Cheat%20Sheet&utm_campaign=cheatsheet_morning&cid=newsletter%3Bemail%3Bcheatsheet_morning

Below is a remarkable document. It's a memo circulated by Jan van Lohuizen, a highly respected Republican pollster, (he polled for George W. Bush in 2004), to various leading Republican operatives, candidates and insiders. It's on the fast-shifting poll data on marriage equality and gay rights in general, and how that should affect Republican policy and language. And the pollster's conclusion is clear: if the GOP keeps up its current rhetoric and positions on gays and lesbians, it is in danger of marginalizing itself to irrelevance or worse.

Read the bluntness of this. This is the GOP establishment talking to itself. And the Republican pollster who arguably knows more about the politics of the gay issue than anyone else (how else to explain the Ohio campaign of 2004?) is advising them in no uncertain terms that they need to evolve and fast, if they're not going to damage their brand for an entire generation:

In view of this week’s news on the same sex marriage issue, here is a summary of recent survey findings on same sex marriage:

1. Support for same sex marriage has been growing and in the last few years support has grown at an accelerated rate with no sign of slowing down. A review of public polling shows that up to 2009 support for gay marriage increased at a rate of 1% a year. Starting in 2010 the change in the level of support accelerated to 5% a year. The most recent public polling shows supporters of gay marriage outnumber opponents by a margin of roughly 10% (for instance: NBC / WSJ poll in February / March: support 49%, oppose 40%).

2. The increase in support is taking place among all partisan groups. While more Democrats support gay marriage than Republicans, support levels among Republicans are increasing over time. The same is true of age: younger people support same sex marriage more often than older people, but the trends show that all age groups are rethinking their position.

3. Polling conducted among Republicans show that majorities of Republicans and Republican leaning voters support extending basic legal protections to gays and lesbians. These include majority Republican support for:

a. Protecting gays and lesbians against being fired for reasons of sexual orientation
b. Protections against bullying and harassment
c. Repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell.
d. Right to visit partners in hospitals
e. Protecting partners against loss of home in case of severe medical emergencies or death
f. Legal protection in some form for gay couples whether it be same sex marriage or domestic partnership (only 29% of Republicans oppose legal recognition in any form).

Recommendation: A statement reflecting recent developments on this issue along the following lines:

“People who believe in equality under the law as a fundamental principle, as I do, will agree that this principle extends to gay and lesbian couples; gay and lesbian couples should not face discrimination and their relationship should be protected under the law. People who disagree on the fundamental nature of marriage can agree, at the same time, that gays and lesbians should receive essential rights and protections such as hospital visitation, adoption rights, and health and death benefits."

Other thoughts / Q&A: Follow up to questions about affirmative action:

“This is not about giving anyone extra protections or privileges, this is about making sure that everyone – regardless of sexual orientation – is provided the same protections against discrimination that you and I enjoy.”

Why public attitudes might be changing:

“As more people have become aware of friends and family members who are gay, attitudes have begun to shift at an accelerated pace. This is not about a generational shift in attitudes, this is about people changing their thinking as they recognize their friends and family members who are gay or lesbian.”

Conservative fundamentals:

“As people who promote personal responsibility, family values, commitment and stability, and emphasize freedom and limited government we have to recognize that freedom means freedom for everyone. This includes the freedom to decide how you live and to enter into relationships of your choosing, the freedom to live without excessive interference of the regulatory force of government.

The last paragraph is, to my mind, the most remarkable. It's advising Republican candidates to emphasize the conservative nature of gay marriage, to say how it encourages personal responsibility, commitment, stability and family values. It uses Dick Cheney's formula (which was for a couple of years, the motto of this blog) that "freedom means freedom for everyone." And it uses David Cameron's argument that you can be for gay marriage because you are a conservative.

And the walls came tumbling down.

[MrsAxilla]

Good! Even my Faux News Ditto-head dad has changed his mind. It wasn't because of my legally defensible and brilliantly articulate arguments; it was because he got a new job and found himself with lesbian coworkers that he liked and respected (to his surprise).

[IIOY]

The conservative fundamentals listed above are the biggest reason I've struggled to understood conservative opposition to gay marriage.

[y4m]

I totally agree with this guy--but I would definitely not describe him as a "top GOP pollster"

[MrsAxilla]

May 12, 2012 11:27:43 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Bravo! I wonder if the GOP will be smart enough to listen. If they don't back down soon, this may be one of the defining positions of the election of 2012 and damage the GOP brand for a while to come. And on the one hand, while I'd love for the GOP to go down in a ball of flame, I realize that the Dems need a countervailing force.

Not likely. "Mitt Romney doubled down on his position against same sex marriage, telling graduates at Liberty University Saturday that marriage between "one man and one woman" is an "enduring institution" that should be defended."

[y4m]

May 12, 2012 11:38:37 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

May 12, 2012 11:35:27 GMT -5 MrsAxilla said:

Not likely. "Mitt Romney doubled down on his position against same sex marriage, telling graduates at Liberty University Saturday that marriage between "one man and one woman" is an "enduring institution" that should be defended."

Eh. He can always change his mind.

Bwahahahaha. True story

[Deleted]

Its a good thing Romney is an etch-a-sketch. Just shake him and he can change his mind.

[ESF]

I think this is why Obama's announcement this week was so powerful to me. I imagine he's not going to do a hell of a lot with his sudden evolution that he wasn't already doing/not doing, but I found the announcement historic in that I think it symbolizes the point at which the tides have changed. His announcement instantly made North Carolina appear to be a freakshow, and not a bell weather state.

I popped on the National Review earlier this week, and one of their bloggers wrote that even though many young Republicans support gay marriage, people tend to grow more conservative as they age. That just made me LMFAO. I don't deny that many people grow more conservative as they age, and that may be a reasonable argument as to why, say, socialized health care isn't inevitable. But, it seems that this guy was arguing that the party should hang their hats on the hope that these 22 year olds will turn 30, move the suburbs, and be grossed out that their gay former college roommate posted pictures from his Boston wedding. The point was so stupid, that I almost felt bad for him.

[MrsAxilla]

May 12, 2012 11:38:37 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

May 12, 2012 11:35:27 GMT -5 MrsAxilla said:

Not likely. "Mitt Romney doubled down on his position against same sex marriage, telling graduates at Liberty University Saturday that marriage between "one man and one woman" is an "enduring institution" that should be defended."

Eh. He can always change his mind.

He already did! He was pro-equal rights when he was governor.

[Deleted]

May 12, 2012 11:43:36 GMT -5 ESF said:

I popped on the National Review earlier this week, and one of their bloggers wrote that even though many young Republicans support gay marriage, people tend to grow more conservative as they age. That just made me LMFAO. I don't deny that many people grow more conservative as they age, and that may be a reasonable argument as to why, say, socialized health care isn't inevitable. But, it seems that this guy was arguing that the party should hang their hats on the hope that these 22 year olds will turn 30, move the suburbs, and be grossed out that their gay former college roommate posted pictures from his Boston wedding. The point was so stupid, that I almost felt bad for him.

I'd be curious what the basis is for that. I hear that a lot, but dr.harpy (I guess that's groomy's new internet name?) tells me the data shows that people don't actually get more conservative as they age. I haven't analyzed it myself, so I'm just parroting what he's told me based on his research.

May 12, 2012 11:35:10 GMT -5 y4m said:

I totally agree with this guy--but I would definitely not describe him as a "top GOP pollster"

Blame Andrew Sullivan. I just c&p'd it. I don't really keep up with the ins and outs of who qualifies as a "top" GOP pollster. Shocking, I know.

[y4m]

May 12, 2012 11:48:48 GMT -5 @angryharpy said:

I'd be curious what the basis is for that. I hear that a lot, but dr.harpy (I guess that's groomy's new internet name?) tells me the data shows that people don't actually get more conservative as they age. I haven't analyzed it myself, so I'm just parroting what he's told me based on his research.

Blame Andrew Sullivan. I just c&p'd it. I don't really keep up with the ins and outs of who qualifies as a "top" GOP pollster. Shocking, I know.

People get more conservative as they age based on the data I've seen--18-34 year olds who voted for Obama in droves and self id as Dems will do so in smaller numbers as they age.

Don't think that applies to civil rights issues though!

And yeah--I realize you just copied the headline. But there is a pretty solid group of "top" GOP pollsters and based on the fact that I hadnt heard of him until I just googled, he's not on the list.

[msmerymac]

May 12, 2012 11:27:43 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

Also, couldn't this equally apply to the war on women? When will that logical next step come?

First they'd have to acknowledge that there IS a war on women. They've been quite open about hating on the gays, but have never and will never come out and say that their policies re: health care, mandatory parental leave, abortion access, and subsidies which benefit single mothers are anti-woman.

[earlgreyhot]

I agree with the article. It's so disingenuous to maintain the antigay stance, but I guess it keeps the religious fundies from thinking about the actual issues and showing up at the polls.

[IIOY]

I've definitely become more conservative in the past twenty years but it's almost exclusively fiscal. It's not as though I'm going to suddenly decide that all of my gay friends should be treated like second-class citizens. That would be odd, to say the least.

[Deleted]

May 12, 2012 12:20:29 GMT -5 IIOY said:

I've definitely become more conservative in the past twenty years but it's almost exclusively fiscal. It's not as though I'm going to suddenly decide that all of my gay friends should be treated like second-class citizens. That would be odd, to say the least.

While I enjoy my relative wealth, it makes me uncomfortable and probably more fiscally liberal over the last 10 years than I was in law school.

[ttt]

May 12, 2012 11:56:44 GMT -5 y4m said:

Don't think that applies to civil rights issues though!

Exactly - I don't think you have many people who believed, say, that interracial marriage was OK in 1970, but now no longer do. I don't think people usually go backwards on civil rights views.


I think Obama's statement was important in that it marked a moment in our history where there's no going back. It's inevitable that gay marriage will eventually become legal. Public opinion has shifted too much and I think it's already gone over the tipping point.

[heyjude]

It's just a no brainier. GOP pushes an anti gay agenda to their own peril.