McMillan accuracy, marathon pace, and BQ attempt?

[jordylee]

How close were your predicted paces and actual pace? I know this will vary for everyone, but I am a little freaked out... My half time from a year ago was around a 1:53, and I ran a 3:56 marathon. I've run two halfs in the last two weeks, and they were 1:45 (hot, no shade, 80% humidity) and 1:40 (awesome weather, flat course). I plugged the 1:40 into McMillan, and it spit out a marathon time of 3:30:38

HOLYSHITWTF. I was planning to train and run at 8:30 pace, but maybe that is being too conservative. I had no clue that I am getting into BQ territory. I have no idea how to train for a BQ other than run a lot and do some speedwork. I have a huge fear of going out too hard in a marathon and dying at the end (a la my first full, where I ended up finishing in 4:45). So I typically hold back a lot, but never hit the wall and feel pretty good at the end, running negative splits. I am afraid of pushing myself and failing, and afraid that I don't know how much pushing is TOO much. 

Also, I know that everyone says not to do this, but I have always run my long runs at the pace I plan to run the race at. Last year I trained at 9min/mile, and finished very close to that (albeit with a lot in the tank, miles 22-26 were my fastest). Mentally, it is hard for me to wrap my head around not doing it that way.

So... what are your experiences? Those of you who have BQ'd, what did your half times look like leading up to it? Training plans? I have followed HH's novice 2 for all of my previous marathons, and am planning on HH intermediate 1 (and swapping out 1 run a week for speedwork). Thoughts? Sorry this was a novel!

[clseale]

I have found McMillan to be pretty spot on for me, and judging by your half & full time, it seems to be pretty good for you too! Beyond that, I'm just commenting in here so that it shows up in my "participated in" threads. I'll be training for a BQ in Chicago as well, so I want to see these responses.

[gumi]

Jun 12, 2013 9:22:55 GMT -5 jordylee said:

Also, I know that everyone says not to do this, but I have always run my long runs at the pace I plan to run the race at. Last year I trained at 9min/mile, and finished very close to that (albeit with a lot in the tank, miles 22-26 were my fastest). Mentally, it is hard for me to wrap my head around not doing it that way.

Really, not everyone says this.  Many plans incorporate pace runs into the long run.   Look into Pfitzinger if you are interested in doing this.

The key to BQ is train to BQ.  You won't magically run a pace that you have not trained for, no matter what you half marathon time is.  If you select 3:30 as your goal time, start the training plan using the numbers suggested for that finish time.  

The marathon is a long race, so much can go wrong, from hydration and fueling issues, stomach issues, injuries, a good headwind, etc.  I think the general rule is to double your half marathon time and add 10-20 minutes.   That gives you 3:30-3:40, I would shoot for 3:35.  

[cinco]

Macmillan is accurate for me, but I do train for those marathon paces. I do tempo runs at 10k-1/2 pace, intervals at 5k or faster, and then long runs at long slow pace, w/ one at marathon pace every few weeks (just the last half -3/4th of the run). My paces are all based on the MacMillan calculator.

My last training cycle my half was right at 1:40 in hot weather conditions, and my full would have been around a 3:32 with out the course error. I didn't have a great race and had some stomach issues (stopped for a couple minute potty break), so I don't think this was an aggressive race for me. In other words, I think a 1:40 half gets you a 3:35 BQ.
My other BQ's were 3:28 ( half time that training cycle was in the low 1:40's, high 1:30's). Perfect weather conditions, and an "on" day for me.
3:21 (half time that training cycle was mid 1:30's) Perfect weather conditions, another "on" day.

[jordylee]

Oh don't worry, I am not at ALL under the impression that it won't be a lot of hard work and take dedicated training. I just wanted some opinions on if I am biting off more than I can chew by shooting for it this time around based on where I am currently at. I think that ultimately it will depend on a lot of factors. Chicago is notoriously finicky weather wise. If all the stars align, it could happen. If it is a crap day, maybe next time. Either way, I am going to go into training with it in the back (who am I kidding, I will probably be obsessing!) of my mind.

[cinco]

I think you've definitely got it, assuming decent weather. We all know how that can be. I would shoot for an 8 even pace to account for tangents and other variables. I didn't mean to come off as I trained for my marathons, hard work, yada yada. I just meant I used Macmillan paces based on my end goal. I re-read and was wondering if I came off like an ass.

[clseale]

Jun 12, 2013 15:38:04 GMT -5 cinco said:

 I just meant I used Macmillan paces based on my end goal. 

I feel like McMillan has such a wide range for the suggested paces. Did you train on the faster or slower end of the range? For long runs it has me anywhere from 8:38-9:55. I ran my 20+ runs around an 8:55 when I ran a 3:46, so I'm guessing I should try and drop these down to 8:45 or so and train at the faster end of the range? There's no way I'm training at a 9:55 and racing at an 8:12.

[jordylee]

Jun 12, 2013 15:58:51 GMT -5 clseale said:

I feel like McMillan has such a wide range for the suggested paces. Did you train on the faster or slower end of the range? For long runs it has me anywhere from 8:38-9:55. I ran my 20+ runs around an 8:55 when I ran a 3:46, so I'm guessing I should try and drop these down to 8:45 or so and train at the faster end of the range? There's no way I'm training at a 9:55 and racing at an 8:12.

I was actually going to ask this too! I looked at the recs and there really is a huge range. I would guess near the faster end for speed workouts/tempos, more near the middle for other runs, and on the slower end after a really hard workout or during really high mileage peak? 

[cinco]

I used Pfitz plans, and he specifies pace based on race times. For tempo runs he uses 15k-1/2 pace, intervals are 5k. Long runs I do easy pace, which for me is naturally about 60 seconds off of goal pace. Every 3rd week or so calls for the last 1/2-3/4 at marathon pace. clseale I think I'd just shoot for the lower range of Macmillan, but I don't pay too much att'n to long run pace, other than the miles where I'm shooting for goal pace. I feel like my speed comes more from the mid week workouts.

[clseale]

That makes sense, because I didn't maintain a constant 8:55 pace for those runs, it was a combo of slower pace & marathon pace. Thanks, Cinco!

[chw57]

McMillan is pretty accurate for me.

I HIGHLY recommend the Pfitzinger 12/55 plan...it helped me BQ on a tough course (San Francisco). You do a few long runs with an easy pace to start and the last 8-10 miles at marathon goal pace (I ran those at 8:00 and ended up having an overall race pace of 8:08)

[keweenawlove]

Jun 12, 2013 16:55:13 GMT -5 chw57 said:

I HIGHLY recommend the Pfitzinger 12/55 plan...it helped me BQ on a tough course (San Francisco). You do a few long runs with an easy pace to start and the last 8-10 miles at marathon goal pace (I ran those at 8:00 and ended up having an overall race pace of 8:08)

Is this plan online anywhere or do you have to buy the book? I have to commit to a marathon training plan in the next month or so here and I'm looking at my options. I'm leaning towards HH Intermediate 1 or 2 but want some speed.

[chw57]

Jun 12, 2013 17:00:19 GMT -5 keweenawlove said:

Jun 12, 2013 16:55:13 GMT -5 chw57 said:

I HIGHLY recommend the Pfitzinger 12/55 plan...it helped me BQ on a tough course (San Francisco). You do a few long runs with an easy pace to start and the last 8-10 miles at marathon goal pace (I ran those at 8:00 and ended up having an overall race pace of 8:08)

Is this plan online anywhere or do you have to buy the book? I have to commit to a marathon training plan in the next month or so here and I'm looking at my options. I'm leaning towards HH Intermediate 1 or 2 but want some speed.

It may be on line somewhere, but I bought the book and it was totally worth it!

[foundmylazybum]

McMillan has always been accurate for me...but I also trained at the lower end of the pace ranges.

Like everyone else is saying, at some level---some place, whether it be at points in your long runs, workouts etc, you have to train at the pace you expect to run.


You don't have to do it all the time, but you gotta get there some time.

[gumi]

Jun 12, 2013 15:16:48 GMT -5 jordylee said:

Oh don't worry, I am not at ALL under the impression that it won't be a lot of hard work and take dedicated training. I just wanted some opinions on if I am biting off more than I can chew by shooting for it this time around based on where I am currently at. I think that ultimately it will depend on a lot of factors. Chicago is notoriously finicky weather wise. If all the stars align, it could happen. If it is a crap day, maybe next time. Either way, I am going to go into training with it in the back (who am I kidding, I will probably be obsessing!) of my mind.

My opinion of the marathon (or any race that involves a long training cycle and requires a long recovery) is go big or go home.  

If you end up picking a goal that is too hard for you (at this moment), your training will tell you and you can adjust your goal.

It sucks ending a race and not reaching a goal - that is the risk you take when you reach for the stars.  But, bigger risk = bigger reward.  But this is why people have A goals, B goals and C goals, so that it there is something to fall back on.  So, your A goal can be sub 3:35, your B goal can be sub 3:40 and your C goal can be sub 3:50.

[cinco]

OMG, McMillan. I have the publishing company on the brain today. I'm not going back and editting out my stupidity!
ETA: editing. I'm done here, lol.