more pace talk - please to advise

[runaways]

I need thoughts from more experienced marathoners than I.

This will probably get long so bear with me. I started this marathon cycle planning to train for a sub-4:00, and then it was summer and hot and humid and about 6 weeks in I said fuck it and quit timing myself and just got the miles in. I figured if I couldn't do it in Chicago, at least maybe I could do it in Houston in January. Accounting for extra distance, I think I need to run about 9:00/mile.

So my garmin and I are now reunited. Sunday before last I did 15 miles coming off a rest day at 9:06/mile, and I felt great and probably could have done at least a couple more miles at that pace. This past Sunday I did 21 (in much grosser conditions and the day after a 5 mile pace run) at 9:47/mile. The last mile of the 21 was at 8:41, so clearly I still had a lot left at the end. McMillan says I should be doing about a 1:55 half, which I was on track for at my last half in April before being somewhat derailed by my IT band. 

I've been doing regular pace runs for the past 4-5 weeks (5 to 8 miles a piece) and I've picked up the speed work again. 

SO. Is a sub-4:00 realistic? I'm thinking that it's probably doable for me if we get ideal conditions in Chicago, but it's going to be pretty tough, but maybe I'm selling myself a little short?  Thus I'm also unsure what sort of a pacing strategy to use for this race. I'd rather be realistic about it and go for and achieve, say, a 4:05 than go out too fast and totally bonk.

Thoughts? TIA!!

[Wines Not Whines]

I think sub-4:00 sounds realistic. I assume you're not running your long runs at the same level of effort you'd run your race. Your long run pace should be slower than race pace, unless you're specifically doing a pace run. You sound on track to me. Have you been running your pace runs at 9:00 pace?

I don't have any great advice about hitting paces on race day, I've learned that I have to base my pace on how I feel that day, and I do much better when I rely on effort/feel rather than what my watch says (although I have to make sure I don't go out too fast, even if I feel good at the beginning). I just have to hope my legs cooperate.

[runaways]

Yes, pace runs have been 8:55-9:05 goal range. Mostly right around 9:00.

[al320]

4:00 is 9:11, fyi, so you have wiggle room if you are aiming for 9:00 (or, as i like to call it, 8:60, which is my marathon pr pace currently). It sounds definitely doable.

[runaways]

Oct 2, 2013 20:29:29 GMT -5 al320 said:

4:00 is 9:11, fyi, so you have wiggle room if you are aiming for 9:00 (or, as i like to call it, 8:60, which is my marathon pr pace currently). It sounds definitely doable.

True, but I can guarantee I won't run perfect tangents, so I'm trying to leave some room there.

[grk2012]

When I was working toward sub-4, I operated on a 9:06-9:07 per mile mentality for my shorter runs. I ran a 3:56 that year, which included a porta potty stop. It could really just come down to the conditions that day; sounds like your training is in a good place. Good luck!

[clseale]

Oct 2, 2013 20:34:43 GMT -5 runaways said:

Oct 2, 2013 20:29:29 GMT -5 al320 said:

4:00 is 9:11, fyi, so you have wiggle room if you are aiming for 9:00 (or, as i like to call it, 8:60, which is my marathon pr pace currently). It sounds definitely doable.

True, but I can guarantee I won't run perfect tangents, so I'm trying to leave some room there.

I was going to point this out. No , you won't only run 26.2 miles, but you don't need an 11 sec difference. If it's going to be close, you can burn yourself out over 11 sec. 

I think it's a realistic goal. I would aim for just under 9:11, maybe 9:08 or 9:09 for the first half & then drop the pace a few more seconds for the last half. If you feel great, you can drop your pace by a few seconds every 4 miles or so in the last half. My fear is that if you're shooting for 9:00, you'll have too many miles that are sub 9:00 in the first half,  & that 's risky. 

[grk2012]

Oct 2, 2013 20:45:44 GMT -5 clseale said:

Oct 2, 2013 20:34:43 GMT -5 runaways said:

True, but I can guarantee I won't run perfect tangents, so I'm trying to leave some room there.

I was going to point this out. No , you won't only run 26.2 miles, but you don't need an 11 sec difference. If it's going to be close, you can burn yourself out over 11 sec. 

I think it's a realistic goal. I would aim for just under 9:11, maybe 9:08 or 9:09 for the first half & then drop the pace a few more seconds for the last half. If you feel great, you can drop your pace by a few seconds every 4 miles or so in the last half. My fear is that if you're shooting for 9:00, you'll have too many miles that are sub 9:00 in the first half,  & that 's risky. 

Oh hey, this is an excellent point.  ::takes for personal use::

[ebeth]

I could have written this exact post. In fact I think I did write this exact post 2-3 weeks ago.

Personally, I've kind of given up on sub 4. Mostly because I was giving way too much power to a goal that was kind of arbitrary. In reality, I'll be THRILLED with a 4:05. That would be a nearly 20 min PR.

What I do know is that I do not want the last 10k death march. I want a strong race overall. So I'm going conservative for the first half. I'll shoot for 9:15-9:20 for the first 10k and pick it up after that if I'm still feeling good. Going out conservatively is probably going to mean no sub 4, but I'm ok with that now. I'm a middle of the pack runner. I'm not going to win, BQ, or break any records here. So at the end of the day I've decided it doesn't matter if I hit that 3:59 or 4:01 or 4:07. I'm not going to beat myself up about it.

Prob not terribly helpful to you but realizing that the 4 hour milestone was really arbitrary was a big breakthrough for me mentally.

[clseale]

ebeth, fwiw, I think going out conservatively is the best way to meet whatever goal you set. From what I recall from your training posts, you've trained to hit neg splits. I think you have a great plan laid out. You're going to have a great race!

[kams]

Gosh I'm taking lots of notes.

I'm training with hopes of being just below 4:00, but obviously haven't done it yet so I can't give any advice. But, wishing you all the best - a happy, healthy, strong race.

[chitownbelle]

I just looked at my Garmin mileage. Chicago 2010 I ran 26.93mi, and 2012 I ran 26.62 mi, if this gives you any help in regards to how much extra mileage you will be running. I knew the course last year, so knew which corners to cut to run less mileage.

I wanted sub 4 last year, so I started alongside the 3:55 pace group to ensure I got sub 4. if I couldn't keep up with them, i'd still have buffer room, as long as I stayed ahead of the 4:00 group. I felt great and ended up finishing before the 3:50 pace group. maybe set out near the 4:00 group and see how you feel? negative splits

[runaways]

This is all super helpful and you've given me a lot to think about, plus a confidence boost that maybe I can pull it off. I was planning to start slower, I just wasn't sure how much slower so now at least I have some idea of that.

ebeth, you are absolutely right that it's an arbitrary goal. I ran my first marathon in about 4:55 so I'm going to blow that out of the water regardless, as I've reminded myself a few times, and I have no plans to beat myself up if I don't do it. That said...I would still love to break through that 4 hour barrier.

chitownbelle 26.93? Holy cow. I was calculating for about 26.6. I'm going to memorize the damn course.

[IndiaInk]

chitownbelle already mentioned it, but are there pace groups you can join? I stayed with my pace group for 22 miles before hitting the wall a bit and dropping back a little. We had excellent pacers (Clif bar team) and they were invaluable to me. They chatted with the group which gave me something to listen to and really made the miles fly by. They also gave us tips on how to stay mentally "in the game" as we started getting into the higher mileage. If you can find a pace group, I'd highly recommend it.

[clseale]

26.9 is insane! I think that helps all of us. Thanks, chitownbelle! The most I have ever run over is 26.5, & that was a course with a lot of turns & 30,000+ people, so similar conditions. WTF, Chicago, that's not a fast course. Time to obsess over the course map. 

[gt7301b]

ebeth is wise.

I think one "problem" with big goals like sub 4 or BQing is we get hung up on the big goals and fail to celebrate the steps in between and realize that sometimes it takes a couple races to get there. It sounds like you are going to kill your previous PR and if you end up with a 4:02 or 3:58 both of those are great accomplishments.

[cinco]

ebeth I like your approach. I think you will do great. I'm focusing on the mental game this marathon cycle vs. a time goal. I don't want to hate life and marathons like I did the last go around. Considering I don't have a course for Freedom's Run, having a time goal seems pointless, lol.

runaways Go for it! Line up near the 4:00 pacer and see how it feels. If they go out too fast or you are putting in too much effort, hang back more. You can do this!

[ebeth]

so I kinda hijacked your post. sorry dude.

let me also add that I know, for myself, if I get too caught up in a time goal, there is a strong possibility I will give up when it becomes apparent that I will not be hitting that time goal. so if I'm shooting for 4 and I hit mile 20 knowing that it will take a miracle to actually hit 4 there is a strong possibility that instead of thinking 'let me do the best that I can' I'll be all 'it doesn't matter. I'm not going to make my time anyway. might as well just screw around for the next hour.' but that is me specific and something that I am working on.

[clseale]

Oct 3, 2013 8:23:21 GMT -5 ebeth said:

so I kinda hijacked your post. sorry dude.

let me also add that I know, for myself, if I get too caught up in a time goal, there is a strong possibility I will give up when it becomes apparent that I will not be hitting that time goal. so if I'm shooting for 4 and I hit mile 20 knowing that it will take a miracle to actually hit 4 there is a strong possibility that instead of thinking 'let me do the best that I can' I'll be all 'it doesn't matter. I'm not going to make my time anyway. might as well just screw around for the next hour.' but that is me specific and something that I am working on.

See, this exact thinking is what made me reset my goal to sub 3:40. I want to feel good about my race. I know I'll PR, and I want to be happy with that PR, whatever it winds up being. I'm so excited about this trip, and I want it to be a positive experience. I don't want to realize 3/4 of the way through, that I'm not going to hit some ambitious goal I set for myself and then spend the rest of the race beating myself up about what a slow loser I am. lol I want to celebrate the race. I will be thrilled with a 6 minute PR, and anything below that would just be an extra reason to celebrate. I ran my last race conservatively at the start and w/loose goals. It was the first time I finished really strong w/no death march, and IT.WAS.AWESOME. 

[runaways]

Oct 3, 2013 8:23:21 GMT -5 ebeth said:

so I kinda hijacked your post. sorry dude.

let me also add that I know, for myself, if I get too caught up in a time goal, there is a strong possibility I will give up when it becomes apparent that I will not be hitting that time goal. so if I'm shooting for 4 and I hit mile 20 knowing that it will take a miracle to actually hit 4 there is a strong possibility that instead of thinking 'let me do the best that I can' I'll be all 'it doesn't matter. I'm not going to make my time anyway. might as well just screw around for the next hour.' but that is me specific and something that I am working on.

Nah no problem. Your advice is totally sound. I like to have a goal in mind, whether that be 4:00, 4:05, or whatever, and I'm trying to figure out the best place to set that.

[chitownbelle]

Oct 3, 2013 4:59:19 GMT -5 clseale said:

26.9 is insane! I think that helps all of us. Thanks, chitownbelle! The most I have ever run over is 26.5, & that was a course with a lot of turns & 30,000+ people, so similar conditions. WTF, Chicago, that's not a fast course. Time to obsess over the course map. 

The course is very wide, 3-5 lanes of traffic wide the whole time, and I didn't know what I was doing the first time around, so somehow I added all that extra mileage.  Def study the course map.  It's hard with so many runners to cut the course how you plan, but worth it to try.