Since everyone else is... I need some good pep talking, or a reality check please.
I'd really love to hit a sub-4 for this race. My last full was in Colorado in 2012, and I totally psyched myself out about it and bonked hard during the last six miles (the race was 18mi downhill, one uphill, then flat--it wrecked my quads), and ended up running 4:11. My PR, from 2011, is 3:56. That feels like ages (and about a dozen pounds) ago. :/
Looking back over my training calendar, a step-back week this month happened to be 25.2 miles. It was a week in which I counted one of my walk-jogs with the dog and didn't do any tempo runs. The running time for the week was 4:01. In August, my 26.6 mile (sucky) step-back week was done int a total in 4:18.
This weekend's race is point-to-point, like CO was, with a net downhill. Weather looks to be humid and rainy, but in the 50s-60s for the race. Sub-4 on adrenalized race day is realistic, yes? What about a shiny new PR? My plan is to hang out slow and easy the first two miles, since I know that is my best warm-up time/distance, and then let fly between aid stations, walk to drink, and see what happens. I know how a big fat bonk feels and survived it last time, so... (huh)
You're going to do great!!! You've been training the perfect way - miles without stress. I love your plan and I think you'll be fine. What helped me in #2 was focusing on being patient...even though I felt great, I made myself wait. I walked through every single aid station, even when I didn't think I needed to, and that helped me stay patient. Time wise, I thought about running two halves. Aimed for 1:55 for the first half, then decided whatever I had left would be it. Reining it in that first half helped, I think.
Plus, your course is beautiful, yes? You'll love it and you'll rock it!
You're going to do great!!! You've been training the perfect way - miles without stress. I love your plan and I think you'll be fine. What helped me in #2 was focusing on being patient...even though I felt great, I made myself wait. I walked through every single aid station, even when I didn't think I needed to, and that helped me stay patient. Time wise, I thought about running two halves. Aimed for 1:55 for the first half, then decided whatever I had left would be it. Reining it in that first half helped, I think.
Plus, your course is beautiful, yes? You'll love it and you'll rock it!
I think you are experienced enough to do well with listening to your body. Maybe go by feel vs. the Garmin. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised. Enjoy yourself! In regards to the weather, it has been warmer here lately but the mornings still feel great. I've been running at 10ish, and it feels delightful compared to the Summer training.
I'll be the same way in two weeks - stressing about pace. I think I battle it more internally when I know good & well I just want to go run the damn thing and have fun!
So, that's my advice to you. Trust your training - run the damn thing and have fun!
The good news is that you've experienced a good race and a bad race. You know how they both feel, and therefore, you're better equipped to handle different situations. I agree with the others, go by feel. It seems like a reasonable goal. You're going to have a great race!