Who wants to play Pace My Marathon? (the long version)

[noisemaker2]

OK, so I know I still have weeks to obsess over this, but I figured I might as well get some input now. I really don’t know how to pace my upcoming marathon. Help?

Last year’s race was a disaster. My first half split was a 2:13 (ish), and I was shooting for a 4:30. Then my body rebelled, and I visited most of the port-o-potties on the back half of the course, finishing in 4:58. I was disappointed. I’m hoping for better this year, but how much better do you think I can get—assuming my body cooperates better?

Relevant facts: This will be my second marathon. My half on Sunday was a 1:57. McMillan predicts a 4:07 based on that. My average weekly mileage has been 29 miles/week at a 6.2mph, with peak weeks in the mid 40s. (last year this time was 23 miles per week at 5.8mph, peak at 35miles).

I don’t want to crash and burn, but I do want to leave it all out there. What do you think is a reasonable A goal for me?

I have one 20 miler left this week. Is there something I can/should do with that to help set a goal pace? Any input appreciated!

[Deleted]

At what pace have you been running your long runs? 

My paces used to be similar to yours. In 2010, I did a 1:57 half (my first, and still my PR to date). The following year, I did a full in 4:31, but I finished strong feeling like I probably could have gone a little faster.

I think I would shoot for a 4:15, so 6.2 mph.

[noisemaker2]

Jan 21, 2014 11:31:21 GMT -5 @canadiandrone said:

At what pace have you been running your long runs? 

My paces used to be similar to yours. In 2010, I did a 1:57 half (my first, and still my PR to date). The following year, I did a full in 4:31, but I finished strong feeling like I probably could have gone a little faster.

I think I would shoot for a 4:15, so 6.2 mph.

Thanks for the input!  My long run pace has been right at 10min/mile, or 6mph, give or take. 

[thom]

I think shooting for around 4:15 is realistic, and faster is absolutely possible if you have a good day.

I am also curious about pace of your long runs & what type of speed work paces you're doing.

I would try to start conservatively, maybe start near a 4:15 or even 4:30 pace group (if there are), and then speed up once things have thinned out & hit "your happy pace."

If weather is windy, hot, crappy, make sure you take that into account too. It's hard to know what to aim for when you're looking at a huge PR possibility, but I think you just need to relax the first half, see how you feel, and take it from there. GL!

[clseale]

Ditto, Thom. I was going to suggest aiming for a 2:10ish half and then trying to pick it up a bit from there, depending on how you feel.

[thom]

Jan 21, 2014 11:53:20 GMT -5 noisemaker2 said:

Jan 21, 2014 11:31:21 GMT -5 @canadiandrone said:

At what pace have you been running your long runs? 

My paces used to be similar to yours. In 2010, I did a 1:57 half (my first, and still my PR to date). The following year, I did a full in 4:31, but I finished strong feeling like I probably could have gone a little faster.

I think I would shoot for a 4:15, so 6.2 mph.

Thanks for the input!  My long run pace has been right at 10min/mile, or 6mph, give or take. 

As background, my last marathon I did long runs at 9:40- 10:00 pace and ran a 1:51 half marathon about 5 weeks prior. I ran the marathon in 4:05. Everyone is different & race conditions totally play a factor, but I think it's always helpful to hear feedback from people on their times.

[Deleted]

Jan 21, 2014 11:58:23 GMT -5 thom said:

I think shooting for around 4:15 is realistic, and faster is absolutely possible if you have a good day.

I am also curious about pace of your long runs & what type of speed work paces you're doing.

I would try to start conservatively, maybe start near a 4:15 or even 4:30 pace group (if there are), and then speed up once things have thinned out & hit "your happy pace."

If weather is windy, hot, crappy, make sure you take that into account too. It's hard to know what to aim for when you're looking at a huge PR possibility, but I think you just need to relax the first half, see how you feel, and take it from there. GL!

This is a good plan. I'm a big fan of negative splitting in races.

[noisemaker2]

Thanks so much everyone, I love the feedback!

As for speedwork, my plan only had one tempo run per week. (The plan actually said pace run, I made it more of a tempo) It was a mid-length run 6-8 miles progressing throughout, and I was doing those around 9min/mile pretty easily.