Bored? Help me pace my 15k!

[clseale]

I have a 15k next weekend. I'm not really sure how to pace it, but I want a big PR. (LOL! Don't we all?) I ran this race last year at a 7:55 pace (about 15 sec p/m faster than my half pace at that time, and I ran a 1:14). Seeing as how my half marathon pace from last weekend was a 7:40 pace, I should have a big PR, but how much faster than 7:40 should I go?

My "OMG, wouldn't it be amazing, but I doubt I could do it" goal would be to break 1:10. Based on my half pace, Mcmillan actually says that I CAN do this and run in the high 7:20s for a mid 1:09, but I don't want to hold on to that. 1) It just seems fast! I think I'm having a hard time grasping the fact that my pace for longer races could be slipping into the sub-7:30 range. 2) This is a big, crowded (25,000 people) race. Running tangents is no easy feat. 3) While this race is very flat, I have this bad boy just after the 8 mile mark.

It's 6%, for just over a 1/2 mile climb. I'll need to have something left in my legs. 

So what would you do? I won't be overly bummed about not getting 1:09, but I REALLY want 1:10. Right now I'm thinking about trying to keep it at 7:35 for the first 4-5 miles, and then maybe picking up the pace from 5-8. The good news is that once you get to the top of the bridge, you get a nice downhill, and then another 2-3/10 of flat to the finish line.  

[Susie]

Your plan sounds reasonable to me! But I think 15ks are kind of a strange distance (enjoyable, but odd), and hard to pace. Plus the one near me that I've done a few times has some weird hill situations that always throw my paces off.

Have you done any 10 milers that you can look at your performance in? I haven't, but it would be the closest standard distance.

[clseale]

Unfortunately, no 10 milers. There is one every October that I keep meaning to run, but I guess that really doesn't help my current situation. LOL!

I agree that 15ks are kind of a weird distance. They're not long, but they're not short. To me, they don't FEEL 4 miles shorter than a half. I know my pace should be faster, but not too much faster. Maybe I'll determine the absolute slowest pace I can have to nail a 1:10, and then go from there. Anything below 1:10:59, (depending on how I feel on race day),I'll just treat as a bonus. Thanks!

[Wines Not Whines]

I would tend to trust McMillan. His calculator is spot-on for me for everything below marathon distance (for some reason I can never run as fast as his predicted marathon times). But you probably shouldn't listen to me, because I have no idea how to pace anything between a 5k and a half.

[taratru]

Oof, that bridge. I'd probably go 7:30-7:35 pace until the top of the bridge and go like a bat out of hell the way down it and the last what...mile? The downhill of the bridge will give you a nice boost of turnover into the last mile.

[cinco]

I've raced halfs and 10 milers close together, and McMillan was right on with the pace difference between the 2. I try not to glance at my Garmin on hills, and just do what I can. I usually can make up some, but not all, ground on the downhill. It's nice that the hill is towards the end b/c you don't have to worry about putting in too much energy and losing steam earlier than anticipated. I think you are set up for a smokin' fast time coming off the training for the marathon and the half.

[clseale]

Thanks, girls! McMillan is usually pretty spot-on for me as well, but when I pulled up the pace, all I could think was, "I'm sorry, a 7:2X-what now?!" lol Since he says 7:28, and taking your advice into account, I'll plan for 7:30-7:35, and then try and use the downhill to grab a few sec at the end. Hopefully the wind cooperates this year! That bridge is pretty high up there, and two years ago, we were getting blown like rag dolls from side to side.

[runblondie26]

I'd go with what McMillian is telling you. I understand tryng to wrap your brain around a sub 7:30 pace (thinking about maintaining splits that start with a "7" for an extended period of time scares me too!). But your body CAN handle it, and with the adrenaline rush that comes along with racing race, it'll feel easier than you think.

[runaways]

I say trust McMillan. I'm having the same issue conceptualizing a sub-8:00 pace for my 10 miler (which to be fair is a stretch per McMillan based on my last half, but in theory I'm getting faster in the interim). I think your plan sounds solid - start a little slower and aim for some nice negative splits.