Excerpt: “The basic contours of the race have not changed since January or since Romney got the nomination,” said Doug Sosnik, a veteran Democratic strategist. “This has pretty much held true no matter how well or poorly each campaign has performed.”
Sosnik is right. Both candidates have made flubs — President Obama’s clumsily worded “you didn’t build that” line, Romney’s ongoing struggles with how to talk (or not to talk) about his wealth — that have been seized on by the opposite side as game-changers (except that they weren’t). Both candidates have had good months (Obama’s first few months of this year, Romney’s April and May) and bad ones (Obama’s June, Romney’s July).
And yet, nothing has really changed. The economy is, by far, the campaign’s dominant issue, and on that front Obama has struggled to convince a majority of voters that he has the right plan for the future.
...... Given how polarized the electorate already is, even slight strategic victories for Obama or Romney as they push their competing — and deeply entrenched — narratives could wind up being the difference between winning and losing.
“Make no mistakes,” Rollins warned. “The last mistake might lose it.”