Greece is thisclose to leaving the Euro

[IIOY]

Its government (or lack thereof) is a mess and yesterday there was a bank run to the tune of $900M. Greek officials might be forced to freeze bank accounts and print their own currency to keep the financial system functioning. Things have suddenly gotten very bad again and yes, the consequences are likely to ricochet across the Atlantic.

Have a nice day!

[ceejay]

Thanks for that! You have a great day as well!

[marie427]

We're all gonna die! Have a nice day!

[Deleted]

I'm thankful I convinced DH to go to Morocco over Greece for our family vacation

[Deleted]

My problem is that it's already dragging down the $A...

[marie427]

Also, are they once again using their Albanian immigrants as scapegoats for this mess?

[IIOY]

May 16, 2012 6:36:31 GMT -5 marie427 said:

Also, are they once again using their Albanian immigrants as scapegoats for this mess?

Hey, man, it's always someone else's fault, AMIRIGHT??

[teflep]

May 16, 2012 6:40:13 GMT -5 IIOY said:

May 16, 2012 6:36:31 GMT -5 marie427 said:

Also, are they once again using their Albanian immigrants as scapegoats for this mess?

Hey, man, it's always someone else's fault, AMIRIGHT??

not the old people...or older with their ridiculously low retirement age?

[ChillyMcFreeze]

Willful ignorance and avoidance are our best options now, right?

[IIOY]

In all seriousness, I think there is ample blame to go around. The politicians are corrupt, labor wants the world on a platter and won't budge, the citizens have failed to elect decent politicians, etc., etc..

From what I'm reading, parts of Greece are turning into ghost towns because so many businesses have had to close. The problem is that if Greece falls, Spain and Italy may be dragged down with it. Greece's horror show is not an isolated problem.

ETA: BTW, and just to really ruin your day, there are a lot of political parallels between Greece and the US. HAVE A NICE DAY!!

[IIOY]

May 16, 2012 6:53:15 GMT -5 @publius said:

Are you trying to say that there's something wrong with electing people who can't form a government?

[IIOY]

May 16, 2012 6:54:31 GMT -5 @publius said:

This just in: New elections have been called.

LOL!! Ya think?

Team Nazis. They know how to fix an economic crisis, right?

[twotrue]

May 16, 2012 6:47:29 GMT -5 ChillyMcFreeze said:

Willful ignorance and avoidance are our best options now, right?

Aren't they always?

sent from phone

[heliocentric]

Do you have a link to an article? I just starting looking, but I can't find the bank run stuff. A BBC article says they are worried about one, but then says "700M euros had been withdrawn from high street banks." So was there one is are they worried about one?

Nevermind. Sounds like it IS one, but they aren't calling it that because they don't want people to panic (even though they already are).

[Deleted]

From what I hear, Greece in itself doesn't really matter to anyone anymore. They are screwed no matter what (which is why they're reacting this way) and chances for a renegotiation on their debt deal are nonexistent. The concern is whether their troubles and this more recent skittishness over deposits spreads to Italy and Spain.

The people I've talked to think this might be a good thing in a way though. They say Greece is like a limb that is turning gangrene. It needs to be amputated at this point for the good of the whole. But EZ leaders can't do that without some cover. Things have to get a heck of a lot worse before they take the next steps. But I guess the hope is that this doesn't have to be a complete disaster if they spin it right. They need to force Greece out, rather than letting them leave on their own, while at the same time reaffirming their commitment to the continuation of the EU and taking steps towards greater federalization.

Now my question for anyone following this closely is, what are the chances that it happens this way? Do you get a sense that the EZ and ECB leaders have this under control and that events are proceeding the way they want them to? Or do you get the sense more that they are just playing a huge game of whack a mole and putting small fires out as they pop up? I have a hard time believing that they are not following some plan but I guess with politicians you never really know. They can be awfully self-serving and short sighted.

[IIOY]

May 16, 2012 7:13:48 GMT -5 @publius said:

The problem is that it's not just Greece. It's Spain and Portugal too and to a certain extent Italy. It's not like by getting rid of Greece everything is going to suddenly be A-OK. Greece wasn't the only country admitted to the Euro who never met all of the requirements for it and it certainly isn't the only millstone tied around Europe's neck.

Yeah, I mentioned Italy and Spain above because the ramifications here are bigger than just Greece.

Now, if Greece can be extricated in an orderly way, it's possible to contain any potential contagion. The problem is that the EU and ECB leaders have absolutely been playing whack-a-mole (to use the phrase from above) and have displayed no willpower to address these issues head-on. The problem is that those in charge have tied their own hands in many ways, to wit, loaning money to banks for the express purpose of buying sovereign debt. The bonds are bound up with the governments, so if the governments fall, so do the banks.

Sorry to be so short and possibly imprecise, but I'm running late and must get going. I'll try to check in later.

[Deleted]

The other countries have real economic viability though right? Under the right conditions, they should be able to grow their way of this eventually? What I've heard about Greece is that they really don't have this potential and won't for the foreseeable future. They have no money of their own to invest in economic development and certaintly no one else is going to lend to them right now.

[Deleted]

IIOY - do you think they are now taking steps for Greece's exit? They must be right? From what I've heard, most analysts agree that it is now very likely they will be leaving soon and that they can't even meet the terms of their debt deal as it currently stands (not that they want to). How many chances are they going to give them?

[dev22]

So you are telling me that I should look at the stock market numbers today unless I want to cry, yes?

[Deleted]

May 16, 2012 7:37:15 GMT -5 dev22 said:

So you are telling me that I should look at the stock market numbers today unless I want to cry, yes?

Well you could look on the bright side that this situation is creating good opportunities to buy Looking back now, I wish we had done this more last summer and fall.

[karinothing]

How does a country switch currencies in an emergency situation like this? I find this fascinating.

ETA: I just mean the logistics of it. LIke how they print enough that fast.

[casmgn]

Ok so most important - what does this mean for the dollar to euro conversion rate over the next week when I'll be vacationing in Europe?

[charminglife]

May 16, 2012 7:52:34 GMT -5 karinothing said:

How does a country switch currencies in an emergency situation like this? I find this fascinating.

ETA: I just mean the logistics of it. Like how they print enough that fast.

Ditto. And feel free to school me - but snit switching currencies going to a point of no return? If they do that does it effectively remove them from the Euro, followed shortly by getting the boot from the EU?

[IIOY]

Sorry, I forgot about this thread!

I have no idea how they can print the drachmas fast enough, and I suppose some sort of fiat currency would have to be used in the interim (or perhaps they retained a stash of drachmas in the aftermath of the conversion to the Euro?), but Greece would have to print its own currency if the banks collapsed and they were no longer able to pump out Euros.

Currency is basically the lifeblood of any economy; if it dries up, the economy comes to a standstill. This is what the big fear was back in '08 here in the States. After Lehman collapsed, banks stopped lending to one another and markets froze. This is how you kill an economy, and is why the Fed stepped in to grease the wheels, so to speak.

And yes, because printing drachmas would essentially be a last-ditch effort to avoid catastrophe, I would think that doing so essentially removes Greece from the Euro because it is creating its own economy at that point, which would be anathema to the purpose of the EZ.

Astonishing factoid of the day, per the WSJ: ECB loans currently constitute 50% of Greece's GDP.

[secretlyevil]

May 16, 2012 5:51:45 GMT -5 IIOY said:

Its government (or lack thereof) is a mess and yesterday there was a bank run to the tune of $900M. Greek officials might be forced to freeze bank accounts and print their own currency to keep the financial system functioning. Things have suddenly gotten very bad again and yes, the consequences are likely to ricochet across the Atlantic.

Have a nice day!

This is depressing.

[aurora]

May 16, 2012 7:53:48 GMT -5 casmgn said:

Ok so most important - what does this mean for the dollar to euro conversion rate over the next week when I'll be vacationing in Europe?

It's probably good news, except of course that the USD will likely fall again due to the upcoming part 2 (or 200) standoff over the debt ceiling:

www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/16/obama-john-boehner-meeting-debt-ceiling_n_1521930.html

[wawa]

I'm completely befuddled by the process of changing currency on a practical level. For the banking/loan industry it's so abstract and removed from actual physical bills that it makes more sense to me.
But for actual people, stores, cash registers, ATMS, etc...how does this work?
It's not like the euro isn't real money anymore...so greece says, "hey bitches, we're going back to the old stuff" and then what? Where do all the euros go? Do you trade them in at the bank?

[emisi]

Greece is a mess. The majority of the country dodges their taxes, retires ridiculously early, takes leads of vacation time, lied to get in the EU... they're pretty much just reaping what they sowed and are pissed about it. To bad they'll drag so many others down with them

[iammalcolmx]

The Greeks aren't the only complete mess in the EU there are plenty of folks dragging it down. That said, my H's family is LOLing at this whole thing.

[iammalcolmx]

May 17, 2012 8:21:31 GMT -5 @littlemoxie said:

May 17, 2012 7:37:16 GMT -5 iammalcolmx said:

The Greeks aren't the only complete mess in the EU there are plenty of folks dragging it down. That said, my H's family is LOLing at this whole thing.

He's a Turk, right? I'm sure many of them are loving this. They're also probably going to get additional tourism money this summer, too.

Turkey is probably so happy they didn't join the Euro club.

Oh yeah they are Turks alright. Turkey is happy about not joining the Euro however they are having a housing boom which is making me raise my eyebrows. They will be in the shitter pretty soon. Hasn't anyone learned from the US?