The Earthquake That Will Devastate Seattle

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 10:44:30 GMT -5 cookies said:

I've spent all morning googling disaster preparedness kits. I live on the east coast and it's not like a week's supply of peanut butter is going to save anyone from a geological apocalypse, but reading these things always reminds me how unprepared and *lalalalalala* our family is.

I agree. We were unprepared and last year there was a water ban in Toledo. DH and I spent hours waiting in line for water.

Now I keep 5 cases of water in the basement at all times. I'm glad we actually have the storage space now, we didn't before.

I need to look more into it and see what else we need, pack it all up and store it somewhere.

[flex]

Alaska experienced a massive EQ (9.2) in 1964 that lasted 5 minutes. Here's some interesting facts about it:
www.livescience.com/44412-1964-alaska-earthquake-facts.html

What I've heard most from people who experienced the EQ as adults is the lack of fresh water and not being able to gas up their vehicles, so I have water stored and I always make sure I have about a half tank of gas in my truck at all times. Other than that, I'm more concerned about being in a bad accident in a snow storm rather than a devastating EQ. I'll deal with it when it actually happens.

[sangria]

What is a natural EMP?

[trafficgirl]

Jul 14, 2015 11:03:03 GMT -5 sangria said:

What is a natural EMP?

Electromagnetic Pulse.

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 11:03:03 GMT -5 sangria said:

What is a natural EMP?

I believe it's an electro magnetic pulse. In my paranoid googling, I found that it's likely we will have a solar storm that will basically take down the power grid.

I'll try to find the article I read.

ETA it's here, #1 on the list:
listverse.com/2015/05/25/10-major-natural-disasters-predicted-in-the-near-future/

[CurlyQ284]

Seriously. I'm just refreshing. I need information!

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 11:17:47 GMT -5 mofongo said:

But really, we can't live in fear 24/7, something could always happen, natural or man-made.

I get that but what worries me is that the area isn't prepared and it doesn't look like they are doing anything to get prepared.

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 11:21:44 GMT -5 mofongo said:

Jul 14, 2015 11:20:28 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

I get that but what worries me is that the area isn't prepared and it doesn't look like they are doing anything to get prepared.

We can't be prepared for everything, can they change the structures of their buildings??

No but they aren't required to post evacuation routes. They mentioned sensors that will make an early warning system (apparently Japan uses it), they don't have it. It says that for new buildings, the builders only have to talk to a consultant about evacuation plans. They don't have to abide by anything, they just need to talk to someone. And it looks like people are voting against measures that would make things safer (the new school campus I posted about earlier).

I get it. People don't want to spend mone for something that 'might' happen. Apparently here in Toledo there were signs that the water plants weren't good enough to handle the toxins from the algae blooms. No one wanted to spend the money to upgrade, no one regulated the fertilizers that the farmers are using etc etc. 2014 and the city water isn't drinkable for 3-4 days, everyone is waiting for trucks to deliver water, Red Cross is trying to deliver to people who can't leave their houses. NOW they are upgrading the water plant, they constantly test the water if the conditions are right for an algae bloom.

I have the same fears about the US power grid. I've read a little bit about how outdated and fragile it is and how easy it would be to take down. Again, no one wants to spend the money to improve it but something will happen and maybe we could have done something to lessen the damage.

It's just frustrating that nothing ever happens until it's too late.

[sangria]

Jul 14, 2015 11:05:40 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

Jul 14, 2015 11:03:03 GMT -5 sangria said:

What is a natural EMP?

I believe it's an electro magnetic pulse. In my paranoid googling, I found that it's likely we will have a solar storm that will basically take down the power grid.

I'll try to find the article I read.

ETA it's here, #1 on the list:
listverse.com/2015/05/25/10-major-natural-disasters-predicted-in-the-near-future/

This is like what almost happened with that bad solar storm in 2012. 

Yikes. 

[flex]

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:58 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

Jul 14, 2015 11:21:44 GMT -5 mofongo said:

We can't be prepared for everything, can they change the structures of their buildings??

No but they aren't required to post evacuation routes. They mentioned sensors that will make an early warning system (apparently Japan uses it), they don't have it. It says that for new buildings, the builders only have to talk to a consultant about evacuation plans. They don't have to abide by anything, they just need to talk to someone. And it looks like people are voting against measures that would make things safer (the new school campus I posted about earlier).

I get it. People don't want to spend mone for something that 'might' happen. Apparently here in Toledo there were signs that the water plants weren't good enough to handle the toxins from the algae blooms. No one wanted to spend the money to upgrade, no one regulated the fertilizers that the farmers are using etc etc. 2014 and the city water isn't drinkable for 3-4 days, everyone is waiting for trucks to deliver water, Red Cross is trying to deliver to people who can't leave their houses. NOW they are upgrading the water plant, they constantly test the water if the conditions are right for an algae bloom.

I have the same fears about the US power grid. I've read a little bit about how outdated and fragile it is and how easy it would be to take down. Again, no one wants to spend the money to improve it but something will happen and maybe we could have done something to lessen the damage.

It's just frustrating that nothing ever happens until it's too late.

It's called "crisis management".  Something horrific has to happen before any action is taken.  Sad fact of life.  : (

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 11:41:57 GMT -5 mofongo said:

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:58 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

No but they aren't required to post evacuation routes. They mentioned sensors that will make an early warning system (apparently Japan uses it), they don't have it. It says that for new buildings, the builders only have to talk to a consultant about evacuation plans. They don't have to abide by anything, they just need to talk to someone. And it looks like people are voting against measures that would make things safer (the new school campus I posted about earlier).

I get it. People don't want to spend mone for something that 'might' happen. Apparently here in Toledo there were signs that the water plants weren't good enough to handle the toxins from the algae blooms. No one wanted to spend the money to upgrade, no one regulated the fertilizers that the farmers are using etc etc. 2014 and the city water isn't drinkable for 3-4 days, everyone is waiting for trucks to deliver water, Red Cross is trying to deliver to people who can't leave their houses. NOW they are upgrading the water plant, they constantly test the water if the conditions are right for an algae bloom.

I have the same fears about the US power grid. I've read a little bit about how outdated and fragile it is and how easy it would be to take down. Again, no one wants to spend the money to improve it but something will happen and maybe we could have done something to lessen the damage.

It's just frustrating that nothing ever happens until it's too late.

I know it's not the same, but look at Katrina, and we knew it was coming. The evacuation 'plans' for people without resources/the elderly/nursing home patients were atrocious. We had been waiting for 'worst case scenario' for years, which Katrina was not, and were 'prepared'. 

I've had crippling anxiety, at times, I'm finally at a place where I just chose not to give energy to things that I can't control.

NOW, that being said, it definitely makes sense to be as prepared for something as possible, maybe this article will prompt them into doing something. Earthquakes are scarier, to me, b/c you don't know when they're coming. With hurricanes, you have days of warning.

I get it, I try not to worry about stuff I can't control. I'm not even on the west coast. I am just scared for the people who live there.

I think if they were to look into the early warning system Japan has, that would be a good investment. It wont save everyone bit every minute is going to count here so it might be worth looking into. This is the description from the article:

The first sign will be compressional waves radiating from the fault line. Compressional waves are fast-moving, high-frequency waves, audible to dogs and certain other animals but experienced by humans only as a sudden jolt. They are not very harmful, but they are potentially very useful, since they travel fast enough to be detected by sensors thirty to ninety seconds ahead of other seismic waves. That is enough time for earthquake early-warning systems, such as those in use throughout Japan, to automatically perform a variety of lifesaving functions: shutting down railways and power plants, opening elevators and firehouse doors, alerting hospitals to halt surgeries, and triggering alarms so that the general public can take cover. The Pacific Northwest has no early-warning system.

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 11:44:22 GMT -5 11d said:

Has the area done seismic upgrading? Vancouver and the suburbs do a TON of seismic upgrading. Not sure if it will help when it happens but I wonder how much preparation Seattle and area do?

I just Googled and it looks like the current policy is that you only have to do it if you're doing a large renovation and buildings don't have to be up to current code when they upgrade but just reinforce them. It looks like they are considering a policy change to require more owners to upgrade.

www.seattle.gov/dpd/codesrules/changestocode/unreinforcedmasonrybuildings/whatwhy/

[fuckyourcouch]

okay, so here's my input:

-yellowstone volcano
this is a very scary, very large caldera that will mess some shit up when it blows. there's a lot of misconceptions though.
the biggest one is that it will be the end of the world. it is true that if the biggest caldera there (the "supervolcano") was to blow, it would be a catastrophe.
i have said i hope i die in the mega blast if that happens, because even if you survived, the food shortage that would follow (the eruption would more than likely not be an extinction event, as previous eruptions were not) would be a mess. crops would have trouble growing, and a lot of cropland would be ruined, so it would be scary.
it would be a continent-wide disaster more than likely, but it's not like the east coast would get buried in lava or something.
the more likely eruption would be a smaller burp of lava that could be disastrous in the park area, or could just be a slow seep of lava that they would keep people away from. that is much more likely.
the concern around yellowstone is that it has a freaking massive magma chamber that has the potential to explode scary amounts of shit everywhere, and it has historically done it at an interval that indicates it is now "overdue".
the good news is that they monitor the shit out of this area and although there has been recent movement of the magma chambers, and seismicity, there is currently nothing indicating an eruption is going to happen anytime soon. of course that doesn't mean it won't, it just means the chances of us getting some warning from all that monitoring are good.
the "bad" news is that even though the current estimates put the chances of the supereruption occurring somewhere around 1:700,000 as UWR said, that is based on averaging techniques of the past big eruptions that are inherently faulty - as that article says, 10 is the average of 9 and 11, but also of 18 and 2.
so, yes, it's probably overdue to blow, it would be scary and bad if it did, but we spend a lot of effort watching it closely and hopefully we are right about its status.

-this article about the cascadia subduction zone
this article is not a "scare tactic". it's a very real threat. there's a ton of science indicating this and a ton of research into it.
this is not a matter of if it is a matter of when, and unfortunately there is not much we can do to predict this kind of thing.
as this article mentions, this fault zone is also "overdue" on activity.
if i lived there i would be worried about it, but this is also one of those things that there is nothing to do about. it's going to happen eventually. you can move away, but not everyone that lives west of I-5 is going to move (or can).
the article picture is dumb though, because the crust would not rip in half through seattle and whatever else it shows. there would be crustal movement of course, but inches-feet, and it's not a spreading zone.
(while i'm on this topic, california is never falling into the ocean. the san andreas fault is a strike-slip and moves horizontally on either side of the fault - rather than together or apart - so someday LA and san francisco may be adjacent. if i see one more movie where this happens, i'm just gonna lose it.)

-mt. rainier
if i lived in the seattle/suburbs area, i would be way more worried about rainier. it is the most dangerous volcano in the cascades, and probably in north america.
it is also overdue for an eruption, but the bigger threat is lahars.
rainier has active hydrothermal activity happening, which has basically cooked the rock inside, so it's kind of structurally a disaster. it could basically self destruct at any time, and because of all of the glaciers and meltwater associated with it, the resulting landslides/lahars/mudflows would be disastrous.
there are a lot of monitoring systems in place, but the scary part is that previous research has shown that sometimes the mountain gives no typical warning signs before it created a mess.
rainier is a big threat because when it eventually blows, it is so close to large populations.
i believe the recurrence interval is something like 50-100 years and the last major activity was approximately 120 years ago. (i might be off on these numbers but i think i'm close.)

-global warming being caused by lack of geological fuckery/earthquake and caldera being related
what?

no but really. i guess i can connect those two if i say that no geological fuckery = no reduction in population = ever increasing stress and demand of earth resources. while it is true the earth has historically gone through natural cycles of cooling and warming based on planetary precession, catastrophic activity, etc., the science seems pretty clear that recent warming is not attributable to these things. of course there are people who will debate this, but the overall scientific community's consensus is that this is people-caused fuckery.
somebody mentioned mantle hotspots - there are two theories as to their cause. current research suggests plume origin for the yellowstone hotspot but are not 100% decided in the entire scientific community.
if it is a mantle plume, the assumption would be that as the juan de fuca plate subducts under north america, it could be contributing melt rock to the mantle plume.
however, seismic data has shown multiple anomlies regarding this and overall an absence of cooler subducted material as would be expected in this scenario, so it is not likely the case.

Bottom line is, if any of this shit happens (it will, sorry) hopefully it's not in our lifetimes, but if it is, we can't do anything. Don't bother living in fear, just do what you can to avoid danger like anything. Current data indicates we are at the beginning of the next "extinction event" based on species die off rates globally. Some think this is human caused, some think it's just the natural cycle. If that's what's happening, it could be hundreds of thousands of years before it matters, or an asteroid could kill us all tomorrow because NASA isn't appropriately funded (lol). There's just no controlling it so try to let it go.

i tried to be thorough, but i typed this in a hurry while i was waiting for data downloads, so if people have questions or something doesn't make sense i'll come back later.

[fuckyourcouch]

Fuck that was long.
Sorry. Lol

[Alex]

I live on the subduction zone, at sea level. Like throw a rock into the ocean close. We hear about "the big one" so often that it just becomes noise after a while. All we can really do is make sure our gas tank is always full and enjoy the ocean.

[underwaterrhymes]

I think generally it's wise to prepare for natural disasters that occur in your area.

Live in a place that's hurricane- or tornado-prone? Having extra water on hand, a battery-powered radio, and the ability to cook a meal when the power is out is probably a smart thing.

Got blizzards? Make sure your car has warm blankets and boots.

Earthquake zone? Know the evacuation routes and what to do if the ground gets to shaking.

Obviously it's smart to prepare for things that naturally occur in your area, but I don't think we all need to run out and build bunkers in our backyard, start googling "how to prepare for volcanic winter" or curtail our travel plans to Portland, Oregon for fear that something might happen while we're there.

[pandorica]

Well. I'm really glad I visited Seattle/Portland/Mt. Rainier a couple years ago. I may be too scared to visit now based on everything in this thread!

[trafficgirl]

I skimmed the article.

And now am going to make H build an emergency bunker instead of the work shed he's been wanting.

[05heel]

FYC, do you think Bruce Willis would be willing to ride a nuke down to the fault line? Can we force him?

[pandorica]

Jul 14, 2015 12:25:21 GMT -5 mofongo said:

Jul 14, 2015 12:22:28 GMT -5 pandorica said:

Well. I'm really glad I visited Seattle/Portland/Mt. Rainier a couple years ago. I may be too scared to visit now based on everything in this thread!

Nooo, go, have fun! I just got back from Portland/Seattle. I went to Mt. Rainier when I was about 12, just me and my dad, I have never seen so many stars, it was breathtaking. Live your life:)

I already went there and hiked a few years ago, it was awesome! But now there are lots of other places to travel to that (probably) wouldn't blow up when I'm there, so I'll stick with those now. At least until I forget about this article (so I'll probably want to go back by next year )

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 12:27:09 GMT -5 05heel said:

FYC, do you think Bruce Willis would be willing to ride a nuke down to the fault line? Can we force him?

I'm sure he would. He's the only one on the planet with experience.

[flex]

Jul 14, 2015 12:11:47 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I think generally it's wise to prepare for natural disasters that occur in your area.

Live in a place that's hurricane- or tornado-prone? Having extra water on hand, a battery-powered radio, and the ability to cook a meal when the power is out is probably a smart thing.

Got blizzards? Make sure your car has warm blankets and boots.

Earthquake zone? Know the evacuation routes and what to do if the ground gets to shaking.

Obviously it's smart to prepare for things that naturally occur in your area, but I don't think we all need to run out and build bunkers in our backyard, start googling "how to prepare for volcanic winter" or curtail our travel plans to Portland, Oregon for fear that something might happen while we're there.

So very "THIS"!!

[flex]

Jul 14, 2015 12:22:28 GMT -5 pandorica said:

Well. I'm really glad I visited Seattle/Portland/Mt. Rainier a couple years ago. I may be too scared to visit now based on everything in this thread!

Seriously??  Good grief woman--get a grip.  You should be more concerned about crossing the street safely in your own town.

[05heel]

Jul 14, 2015 12:30:36 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

Jul 14, 2015 12:27:09 GMT -5 05heel said:

FYC, do you think Bruce Willis would be willing to ride a nuke down to the fault line? Can we force him?

I'm sure he would. He's the only one on the planet with experience.

intellectually I know this, but I just need an expert to confirm, you know?

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 12:33:59 GMT -5 05heel said:

Jul 14, 2015 12:30:36 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

I'm sure he would. He's the only one on the planet with experience.

intellectually I know this, but I just need an expert to confirm, you know?

I'm not an expert but I would say better than average source on the fictional Harry Stamper in Armageddon. If Bruce is nothing like Harry...we are going to have to rely on some new guy who has no clue what he's doing. Ugh.

I agree that FYC should chime in here for expert advice.

[fuckyourcouch]

Jul 14, 2015 12:27:09 GMT -5 05heel said:

FYC, do you think Bruce Willis would be willing to ride a nuke down to the fault line? Can we force him?

I would demand it!


("I don't want to miss a thing" plays softly)

[Nonny]

Between reading this article yesterday, and reading Wave for one of my book clubs, I was having some really interesting dreams last night.

At one point the Pacific was frozen, like a painting, and I was like, "Damn it!  Can someone please reboot the ocean?"

[underwaterrhymes]

Jul 14, 2015 12:36:19 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

Jul 14, 2015 12:33:59 GMT -5 05heel said:

intellectually I know this, but I just need an expert to confirm, you know?

I'm not an expert but I would say better than average source on the fictional Harry Stamper in Armageddon. If Bruce is nothing like Harry...we are going to have to rely on some new guy who has no clue what he's doing. Ugh.

I agree that FYC should chime in here for expert advice.

Whatever we do, I don't think we should rely on Ben Affleck.

He's having a hard enough time trying to figure out whether he wants to wear a wedding band or not, let alone determining the best method to curtail potential tsunamis in the Pacific Northwest.

[05heel]

Jul 14, 2015 12:37:16 GMT -5 fuckyourcouch said:

Jul 14, 2015 12:27:09 GMT -5 05heel said:

FYC, do you think Bruce Willis would be willing to ride a nuke down to the fault line? Can we force him?

I would demand it!


("I don't want to miss a thing" plays softly)

we'll just have to convince him that he's filming the sequel at a VERY realistic location. In one take.

[CurlyQ284]