The Earthquake That Will Devastate Seattle

[CurlyQ284]

Ok so Bruce Willis, Pierce Brosnan to consult on Mt. Rainier and what to do if the boss guy doesn't listen to the early warnings. If anyone has other suggestions, please post them and I will add them to the phone tree.

[BaliHai]

That was super interesting fuckyourcouch, thanks! I sort of have a crush on your brain now.

[CurlyQ284]

I mean, not a save the world option but we should consider phoning in Brad Pitt. His work in surviving a disaster was impressive in WWZ. He might be a valuable asset in the aftermath.

[junebug]

I did yoga this morning and was feeling very calm and zen, until I read this thread. lol

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 13:52:33 GMT -5 nicbreeful said:

Jul 14, 2015 13:11:47 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

I mean, not a save the world option but we should consider phoning in Brad Pitt. His work in surviving a disaster was impressive in WWZ. He might be a valuable asset in the aftermath.

Yeah, but those were zombies.  We should be calling Cusack.  He knew what was up in 2012.

BUT his previous experience is with war zones. That's why he was a good zombie fighter.

I will add Cusack. Good choice. He has to agree that there will be no killing of stepparents so original parents can get back together though. I'm still holding a grudge over that and sorry SDs I'm not taking one for the team on this.

[InBetweenDays]

Jul 14, 2015 13:56:13 GMT -5 kooshball said:

www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about

This is interesting. It's live going on right now if you have a question.

Thanks, this is making me feel slightly more comfortable that Ballard won't be swallowed by a tsunami. Although our hillside may slide into Shilshole Bay.

[joshlyman]

I will add Dwayne Johnson to the list. He just did San Andreas so he knows how to deal with earthquakes and he isn't as rusty as Bruce Willis.

[InBetweenDays]

Jul 14, 2015 14:08:37 GMT -5 kooshball said:

Jul 14, 2015 14:04:54 GMT -5 InBetweenDays said:

Thanks, this is making me feel slightly more comfortable that Ballard won't be swallowed by a tsunami. Although our hillside may slide into Shilshole Bay.

Yeah, i feel better now.

Except that hipsters will survive:

www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct381m7

Hipsters over running the city may be more of an incentive to leave Seattle than devastation of the area due to an earthquake

[Elsa]

Jul 14, 2015 14:08:37 GMT -5 kooshball said:

Jul 14, 2015 14:04:54 GMT -5 InBetweenDays said:

Thanks, this is making me feel slightly more comfortable that Ballard won't be swallowed by a tsunami. Although our hillside may slide into Shilshole Bay.

Yeah, i feel better now.

Except that hipsters will survive:

www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct381m7

Hipsters and cockroaches. Both impossible to exterminate.

[underwaterrhymes]

Jul 14, 2015 14:21:02 GMT -5 Elsa said:

Jul 14, 2015 14:08:37 GMT -5 kooshball said:

Yeah, i feel better now.

Except that hipsters will survive:

www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ct381m7

Hipsters and cockroaches. Both impossible to exterminate.

Unfortunately I think Justin Bieber too.

[stellas]

(Golf claps for FYC)

[scottyderp]

I don't consider myself an alarmist, defeatist, or a scientist, and I can say that I am not surprised that *something* at some point, will take some/all of us out.  If we look at history, shifts occur.  You have to listen to the professionals, accept what you can't change, and try to live in the moment.  You just can't control everything.

[jlovelysoul]

Washingtonian here, central Washington. This is terrifying. We are east of the Cascades but have numerous friends and family that live on the west side and Portland area. We travel there at least once a month. I have no idea what we would do if something like this occurred. Not too much you could do.

[lilafowler]

[sequins]

Wow.

I'd like to think I'd gracefully accept death like this





But in reality, I really hope I can pull off something like this, lol

[sequins]

Also, science is so damn hot. And so are scientists. I'm looking at you, fuckyourcouch

[erbear]

Jul 14, 2015 12:25:21 GMT -5 mofongo said:

Jul 14, 2015 12:22:28 GMT -5 pandorica said:

Well. I'm really glad I visited Seattle/Portland/Mt. Rainier a couple years ago. I may be too scared to visit now based on everything in this thread!

Nooo, go, have fun! I just got back from Portland/Seattle. I went to Mt. Rainier when I was about 12, just me and my dad, I have never seen so many stars, it was breathtaking. Live your life:)

We're headed on a family vacation to Seattle and Portland on Friday. I considered worrying about this (along with flying with my kids and car accidents) but I just can't. If this happens, or Rainier blows in the next week, I will be one of the unluckiest person people in the world.

I do hope the PNW starts updating their systems, because the ideas laid out in this article are terrifying.

[Champagne Supernova]

Jul 14, 2015 13:52:33 GMT -5 nicbreeful said:

Jul 14, 2015 13:11:47 GMT -5 CurlyQ284 said:

I mean, not a save the world option but we should consider phoning in Brad Pitt. His work in surviving a disaster was impressive in WWZ. He might be a valuable asset in the aftermath.

Yeah, but those were zombies.  We should be calling Cusack.  He knew what was up in 2012.

And he also happens to have a Hot Tub Time Machine.

[fuckyourcouch]

[CurlyQ284]

Jul 14, 2015 17:56:56 GMT -5 Champagne Supernova said:

Jul 14, 2015 13:52:33 GMT -5 nicbreeful said:

Yeah, but those were zombies.  We should be calling Cusack.  He knew what was up in 2012.

And he also happens to have a Hot Tub Time Machine.

Omg. We can go back in time and tell them about the fault line so they can build the buildings right the first time!! Genius!!

[fuckyourcouch]

Jul 14, 2015 12:27:09 GMT -5 05heel said:

FYC, do you think Bruce Willis would be willing to ride a nuke down to the fault line? Can we force him?

I just saw this gif and it was too perfect to skip

[glitzyglow]

Oooh, fuckyourcouch, can I pick your brain and ask if you will tell me about the New Madrid fault and its situation? I've read a lot about the 1811/1812 earthquakes (which are terrifying) when I worked for NPS in 2011/2012 due to the bicentennial of the earthquakes, but I don't know much about its current issues/risks.

[fuckyourcouch]

Jul 14, 2015 22:51:21 GMT -5 glitzyglow said:

Oooh, fuckyourcouch, can I pick your brain and ask if you will tell me about the New Madrid fault and its situation? I've read a lot about the 1811/1812 earthquakes (which are terrifying) when I worked for NPS in 2011/2012 due to the bicentennial of the earthquakes, but I don't know much about its current issues/risks.

The NM fault zone is so interesting. I don't know a ton about this one, but here's what I do:

it's definitely a risky area because, again, proximity to populated areas.
it's also a lot harder to study this area because there's a ton of more recent alluvium/sediments, which are easier to deform, and much harder to find evidence of crustal movement - there aren't clear fault lines to look at and measure, the dirt just sort of jiggles around and then the evidence is lost.
also, the basement rocks in the central US are a lot less ductile and colder/drier, so when earthquakes do happen, the damage area is usually worse than a comparable event in a coastal/plate boundary area. the NM faults are thought to be the result of a failed rift system when there were supercontinents - basically the land started to split the continent, but it didn't quite follow through, so now there's a "weak zone" of crust. since it's weaker than surrounding crust, as plate tectonics continue, the area is compromised by this movement and easy to "rupture".
again, methods used to calculate recurrence intervals are inherently faulty, but do indicate an overdue situation here as well. i can't remember the recurrence interval of this particular zone.
the damage zone would be large due to the conditions as i mentioned, including most of the surrounding states. in the 1811-1812 quakes, it wasn't just buildings that were destroyed - it was also landslides, spreads and subsidence, etc. it was pretty devastating for agricultural use.
this quake would not be as severe or as intense as the anticipated cascadia one, and i think it is anticipated to be approximately similar to the 1811-1812, which was around 7-7.5 (i believe). of course this is estimated from damage and study.
overall, this area is pretty poorly understood, because like i said, it's really hard to study faults you can't see. there are a lot of seismic stations in the area to try to study it better.
i do know USGS did increase the seismic risk assessment in that area in the map released last year, and in fact there was a 2.6 in the zone earlier today - a microseismic event (this map is awesome if you find this interesting, i check it every couple of days: earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/).

[Beeps (WOT?*)]

If you typed that in a hurry fuckyourcouch I'd love to see what you come up with when you have time. Wowsers. That was very impressive and informational for the "off the cuff while stuff is downloading" information dump.

[adhdfashion]

Well, I will be consulting some maps to find high ground. Before purchasing the new house. 0.0

[Beeps (WOT?*)]

lol. Some folks in my hometown in Central Cali (central valley) are now discussing when the next "big one" will hit and what they might do to prepare and how it will affect the central coast. Somebody just got back from watching San Andreas. God I love Facebook. 

And fuckyourcouch I will provide you with a starting gif:

And they're also arguing because Fresno banned the sale and flying of the Confederate Flag by the city  Totally infringing on the rights of all those Southern Pride folks in the Central Valley.  And plenty of history, a lot of it misplaced and incorrect, is flying.  The sad thing is that one of the biggest offenders is one of the admins.  So I'll take those gifs back for my use, too.  meshaliuknits

[Jillaroo]

I guess I can be happy to live east of I-5 now...

[meshaliuknits]

Jul 16, 2015 20:54:12 GMT -5 Beeps (WOT?*) said:

lol. Some folks in my hometown in Central Cali (central valley) are now discussing when the next "big one" will hit and what they might do to prepare and how it will affect the central coast. Somebody just got back from watching San Andreas. God I love Facebook. 

And fuckyourcouch I will provide you with a starting gif:

And they're also arguing because Fresno banned the sale and flying of the Confederate Flag by the city  Totally infringing on the rights of all those Southern Pride folks in the Central Valley.  And plenty of history, a lot of it misplaced and incorrect, is flying.  The sad thing is that one of the biggest offenders is one of the admins.  So I'll take those gifs back for my use, too.  meshaliuknits

The heat has gotten to them.