Trump, Carson, Cruz now leading national polls

[ESF]

This is fascinating. If you add up the totals of the three who never held elected office, you are at over 40%. Add Ted Cruz to that, and the results show that more than 50% want an anti-establishment Republican.

www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trump-debate-fox-news-2016-poll-121412.html


Trump leads in first post-debate Fox national poll
By JENNIFER SHUTT 8/16/15 12:44 PM EDT

The first Fox News national poll since the Republican presidential debates shows Donald Trump still on top, even though those surveyed said he had “the worst debate performance” and believed he’s the “least likable Republican candidate.”

Among likely Republican primary voters, Trump polled at 25 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 12 percent and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 10 percent.


Following in single digits were former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 9 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6 percent, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 6 percent, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at 5 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 4 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 4 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3 percent and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 3 percent.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former New York Gov. George Pataki all polled at 1 percent.

In the Democratic presidential race, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders continued to gain on frontrunner Hillary Clinton.

Likely Democratic primary voters gave the former secretary of state 49 percent, Sanders 30 percent, and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley both less than 1 percent.

Vice President Joe Biden, who is still weighing a possible race, came in at 10 percent.

The national poll included 1,008 landline and cell phone interviews of registered voters Aug. 11-13 after the GOP debates Aug. 6 in Cleveland. The overall sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, and the smaller Republican and Democratic samples plus or minus 5 percentage points.


Read more: www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trump-debate-fox-news-2016-poll-121412.html#ixzz3j00ezE5Y

[ttt]

But these guys are the fringe, remember, not representative of the real Republican party or Republicans nationwide.

[ESF]

Aug 16, 2015 12:30:21 GMT -5 ttt said:

But these guys are the fringe, remember, not representative of the real Republican party or Republicans nationwide.

Yeah.

I know it's still really early and a lot can change. But when more than 50% are converging around an anti-establishment, it suggests that this is the new mainstream.

Sure, Jeb! And Cruz are neck and neck. But Jeb is falling fast, and not likely to pick up support from anyone with a meaningful following.

[josieposy]

I've been meaning to ask this question for awhile now, but has anyone read anything as to the reliability of today's polling practices?

[ESF]

Aug 16, 2015 13:23:54 GMT -5 josieposy said:

I've been meaning to ask this question for awhile now, but has anyone read anything as to the reliability of today's polling practices?

There was something in Politico earlier this week.

www.politico.com/story/2015/08/are-the-polls-skewed-121346.html

TL;DR - polls right now are popularity polls and most aren't factoring in whether the respondent is likely to vote.  Two schools of thought on that: (1) polls don't really tell us anything because likely voters are really the only thing that matters and (2) relying only likely voters is flawed because get out the vote efforts are changing, and because history tells us that anti-establishment candidates often surprise people because they draw out a lot of votes from first time or irregular voters.

I don't know which is right.  Based on the strength of the Tea Party, I'd say #2 might be closer to the truth, but I also think a lot of Trump supporters would sooner sit home to watch reruns of Duck Dynasty than to wait in line at their polling station.

In 2012, the GOP in Iowa didn't bother requiring caucus participants to adhere to the state's voter ID laws.  Not sure about other states. But it would not surprise me if the GOP establishment starts figuring out ways to use their vote suppression tactics against their own primary voters.