Early Oscar buzz

[oscarnerdjulief]

What awards season movies do you want to check out?

I want to see Black Mass, Steve Jobs, the Revenant, and Hateful Eight, but I will likely see at least two of those on video next summer.  I already saw Love and Mercy but missed End of the Tour because it only lasted a week in our area.

Here are the frontrunners right now:

Best Supporting Actress:  Rooney Mara, Alicia Vikander, Jane Fonda, maybe Kristen Stewart (though I doubt it, she'd have to overcome tremendous bias)

Best Actor: Leo DiCaprio, Eddie Redmayne going for rare back-to-back wins for the very baity Danish Girl  (only Hanks and Tracy have done it in that category), Tom Hanks

Best Actress---this is more open.  Cate Blanchett, Jennifer Lawrence...lots of young blood

Best Supporting Actor---Tom Hardy, Paul Dano, Jason Segel

I'm not sure what category Michael Caine's in.

Best Picture/Director:  Revenant, Hateful Eight, Carol, Steve Jobs, Danish Girl, Hateful Eight, Bridge of Spies

[dr.girlfriend]

Were you thinking Tom Hardy for Legend or Fury Road? Or something else?

[oscarnerdjulief]

Tom Hardy for The Revenant

That's the movie directed by Inarritu and co-starring Leonardo DiCaprio. Read the book by Michael Punke if you get a chance---I thought it was good. You could always not read the end if you were planning on watching the movie and didn't want it spoiled.

Will Powter (sp?) is in it, too. (he was the guy who rapped in We're the Millers)

"The Revenant" is ranked very highly in early Oscar predictions, including #1 or 2 in picture, director, actor, supporting actor...

Right after the Oscars, I was hungry for more and read most of the works that were being touted for adapted screenplay. "Brooklyn" and "Revenant" were excellent; "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl" was good. I didn't care for "Price of Salt," on which "Carol" was based, but many others like it. I didn't need to read "Macbeth" because I taught it for a decade.

David O. Russell's a factor for "Joy," starring Lawrence, Cooper, and DeNiro.  If Bradley Cooper gets nominated, he ties Brando and Pacino for 4 consecutive noms.  (Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, American Sniper)

[oscarnerdjulief]

Re Mad Max and Legend---Tom Hardy is listed in the top 10 or 15 for Best Actor for Legend, but I think he's more likely to get in for best supporting actor in Revenant, a movie that all Academy voters will see.

Mad Max's best chance is with techs and possibly Miller for director. I don't see Charlize happening.

My gut says it may be a big year for Quentin Tarantino with Hateful Eight, but we'll see.

I like all the young blood in Best Actress---maybe Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, Carey Mulligan, Saoirse Ronan, along with Cate and maybe Sandra. I'm so glad that Meryl's out of it. Ricki is so non-Oscar she won't even get name-checked, I hope.

[oscarnerdjulief]

I just read raves for "Spotlight" and "Steve Jobs." I could see Keaton, Fassbender, and Winslet in the mix. I always thought Winslet was someone who was sure to win two Oscars.

[osumelissa]

I want to see Black Mass for sure. I keep meaning to go see Me and Earl and the Dying Girl but haven't yet.

[oscarnerdjulief]

I'll probably see Me and Earl and the Dying Girl when it comes out on video. I'm also on hold at our local library for Mad Max and Ex Machina. I know that I could get them from the video store in our town, but I haven't gotten around to it yet.

We're watching Ray Donovan, which I enjoy, and can't wait for the new season of tv. I wish we had Showtime; I want to watch Homeland.

[msmerymac]

I definitely want to see Hateful Eight. I always enjoy Tarantino.

I saw the End of the Tour and Jason Segel was very good. Not sure about the film for best picture, though.

I'll probably see Black Mass. I think the Martian is getting some long shot buzz, and I read the book, so I want to see that.

Pretty excited about Suffragette.

And then I'll wait and see what gets MORE buzz later in the season, and when the nominations come out, I'll try to see the best picture nominees I haven't seen yet.

[oscarnerdjulief]

Mark Johnson of Awards Circuit was kinda "meh" on Suffragette. The Academy might do its usual and name-check Streep into Best Supporting Actress. Mark said that the scene with her was the best in the movie.

I like Carey Mulligan and wouldn't mind if she won Best Actress based on her body of work (esp. An Education, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Shame) but that isn't how it's supposed to be. It's supposed to be for the one performance.

Best Actress could be really exciting if the Academy recognized some younger talents. How great would a lineup of Jennifer Lawrence, Carey Mulligan, Saoirse Ronan, and Brie Larson be? (I know Cate will get in.)

[oscarnerdjulief]

I should put the Martian on hold. Just finished Room and read Brooklyn and Revenant early in the season as I said before.

I could see Sorkin winning screenplay for Steve Jobs.

Edited to add:  I am hearing that Spotlight could be a really likable consensus pick a la Argo.  Plus Son of Saul was the #1 critics' movie coming out of Telluride.  It probably has best foreign film in the bag.  (if not, it's Sasha Stone's prediction, not mine)

[dr.girlfriend]

Sept 11, 2015 18:04:08 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

I definitely want to see Hateful Eight. I always enjoy Tarantino.

I saw the Ed of the Tour and Jason Segel was very good. Not sure about the film for best picture, though.

I'll probably see Black Mass. I think the Martian is getting some long shot buzz, and I read the book, so I want to see that.

Pretty excited about Suffragette.

And then I'll wait and see what gets MORE buzz later in the season, and when the nominations come out, I'll try to see the best picture nominees I haven't seen yet.

I am such a huge Ben Whishaw fan...I just got tickets to see him in The Crucible on Broadway. :-D

[oscarnerdjulief]

Brie Larson may have a good chance for Room.

If I could predict today, I'd say Brie Larson, Rooney Mara, Michael Fassbender, and Michael Keaton. I wonder if it would be the first time the actor and supporting actor winner had the same name. I wonder if Spotlight and McCarthy would win picture and director, probably getting screenplay as well. (I'm not going to make that stupid mistake again---picking picture and screenplay separately.)

[teflepi]

Black Mass was good. Departed, imo, was better. Depp was mesmerizing, though. Creepy and good.