Rubio - Despite buzz, short on cash, weak organization

[ESF]

www.politico.com/story/2015/10/rubio-wake-up-call-214890

Marco Rubio's wake-up call

For all the buzz surrounding his campaign, the Florida senator isn't raising enough money and hasn't yet built much of a field organization.
By KYLE CHENEY 10/17/15 08:14 AM EDT


By MARK TOWHEY and JOHANNA SCHNELLER

The hype surrounding Marco Rubio's presidential campaign just smashed into the wall of reality.

First, the Florida senator's team insisted it had stashed more campaign cash in the bank than fellow Floridian Jeb Bush -- only it hadn't. The campaign also told reporters it had raised $6 million in the last fundraising quarter -- also not true. That turned out to be an overly generous rounding of the underwhelming real figure: $5.7 million.

Yet those aren't even the most troublesome parts of the Florida senator's most recent campaign finance report. Rubio may be slowly rising in the polls, but his third quarter filing revealed a campaign that's also out-manned by many of its rivals in the early-voting states. His staff is largely concentrated in Washington, with just a small umbrella of on-the-ground, early-state operatives -- and he's already at a disadvantage because he hasn't invested the time in early-state visits that some of his opponents have.

For all the recent buzz surrounding his candidacy -- fueled by strong debate performances -- Rubio isn't raising enough money to keep pace with his rivals in the top tier and he's running out of time to assemble a robust field organization.

"If Trump-mania subsides, you’ve got to have a mechanism and a structure," said Chip Felkel, a South Carolina Republican strategist who isn't affiliated with any campaign. "I think you’re being risky if you don’t put a structure in place."

Operatives in early-voting primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire say that underneath the hood, there are some warning signs. Rubio has spent a combined three weeks in Iowa and New Hampshire this year -- by comparison, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who badly trails Rubio in the polls, has spent six weeks in New Hampshire alone.

A longtime New Hampshire operative who believes Rubio could do well there added that the senator has "missed a lot of opportunities over the year where he could've been here more regularly."

"Early on and over the summer, when he came here, he’d have like one public event," the operative said. "Rubio people might feel pretty good because he got that good debate performance. That was a good moment. You’re going to have bad moments in the campaign. If you haven’t put together the organization, if you haven’t spent time laying the foundation for undecided voters to make decisions, when you have challenging moments or bad moments, you can’t sustain any of the ground you made up."

The quarterly report released Thursday shows Rubio's doing just fine in terms of cash-on-hand at the moment -- he's sitting on $9.7 million cash-on-hand for the primary season, trailing Ben Carson, Sen. Ted Cruz and Bush in cash heading into the last three months of 2015. (Frontrunner Donald Trump has pledged to primarily self-finance his campaign). And at a recent summit for donors in Las Vegas, the Rubio campaign told the group that it had set a fundraising target of $15 million for the next quarter.

There's just one problem -- that's more than double what Rubio raised between the end of June and the end of September, a period in which he recorded two well-received debate performances, a surge in the polls and a run of positive press. And Rubio is hampered in his hunt for home state dollars by Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor who released a bundler list Thursday that's studded with Florida heavyweights.

There's little margin for error for a candidate who isn't cash-flush — after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada vote in February, there's a burst of Southern primaries on March 1, and then the do-or-die Florida primary on March 15 — a map that will require a more vigorous fundraising operation than Rubio has showed so far.

Rubio allies note that his ambitious fundraising goal isn't out of reach. Rubio has had some success in winning over supporters of former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who dropped out of the race in late September. He's also been aggressively courting some megadonors whose support could make a significant difference because of their political donor networks.

POLITICO reported earlier this week that one of those highly sought-after big fish, billionaire Sheldon Adelson, is leaning increasingly toward supporting the Florida senator.

Backers emphasize that there's plenty of time to continue building out a field organization in key states, and that large campaign operations aren't always winning operations -- a point frequently made by Rubio and his aides, who take pride in the campaign's small staff footprint.

"With 54 full-time staffers, our campaign team is smaller than some other presidential campaigns," Rubio's website reads, describing a "lean" operation. "That means we rely heavily on volunteer support whenever possible."

Jeff Sadosky, spokesman for a super PAC backing Rubio, Conservative Solutions, says Rubio's message -- and talent at communicating it -- is undervalued.

"The right message coming from the party’s best messenger is as effective a turnout machine as anything you can put together," said Sadosky. "I can also say that Conservative Solutions PAC stands ready to provide the support needed to ensure that Marco’s message is heard by voters in the early states."

In South Carolina at least, an early state where Rubio has shown signs of strength, his allies remain confident about his prospects.

"I would suggest the senator has the most robust operation in South Carolina already," said Mikee Johnson, a Rubio fundraiser and chairman of the state's Chamber of Commerce. "His supporters are ... ardent to the point of volunteerism for his effort and for our country. I know this sounds idealistic, but I have seen it first-hand."

Correction: An earlier version of this story omitted Sen. Ted Cruz from the list of candidates ahead of Marco Rubio in cash on hand.

[ESF]

Oct 17, 2015 16:47:30 GMT -5 sunny said:

Coerect me if I'm wrong but this says 5.7M for Rubio and doesn't the other article just posted say 3.9M for trump, both in last quarter?

Eta: yes here are all the figures for last quarter. It just seems like certain articles are spinning things despite the numbers and rather to keep pushing narratives, shocker I know.

www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/15/ben-carson-top-gop-fundraiser-this-quarter-sees-huge-grass-roots-support/

Trump raised less money, but he's barely trying because he's financing it himself. He's not going after big donors.  He can use his own personal fortune to do whatever he wants.

Rubio has no personal assets to draw on.  And he doesn't have a massive base of small donors who will keep giving, like Carson and Cruz do.   He's going to need a big donor soon.  If Sheldon Adelson doesn't get in, it's going to be a rough ride for him.

[ttt]

Being as charismatic as a piece of toast probably doesn't help either.

[gpw]

Oct 17, 2015 17:08:47 GMT -5 ESF said:

Oct 17, 2015 16:47:30 GMT -5 sunny said:

Coerect me if I'm wrong but this says 5.7M for Rubio and doesn't the other article just posted say 3.9M for trump, both in last quarter?

Eta: yes here are all the figures for last quarter. It just seems like certain articles are spinning things despite the numbers and rather to keep pushing narratives, shocker I know.

www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/15/ben-carson-top-gop-fundraiser-this-quarter-sees-huge-grass-roots-support/

Trump raised less money, but he's barely trying because he's financing it himself. He's not going after big donors.  He can use his own personal fortune to do whatever he wants.

Rubio has no personal assets to draw on.  And he doesn't have a massive base of small donors who will keep giving, like Carson and Cruz do.   He's going to need a big donor soon.  If Sheldon Adelson doesn't get in, it's going to be a rough ride for him.

Have you heard he's worth TEN BILLION DOLLARS?!

[ttt]

Oct 17, 2015 20:29:58 GMT -5 gpw said:

Oct 17, 2015 17:08:47 GMT -5 ESF said:

Trump raised less money, but he's barely trying because he's financing it himself. He's not going after big donors.  He can use his own personal fortune to do whatever he wants.

Rubio has no personal assets to draw on.  And he doesn't have a massive base of small donors who will keep giving, like Carson and Cruz do.   He's going to need a big donor soon.  If Sheldon Adelson doesn't get in, it's going to be a rough ride for him.

Have you heard he's worth TEN BILLION DOLLARS?!

[omgzombies]

Oct 17, 2015 16:04:20 GMT -5 ESF said:

The campaign also told reporters it had raised $6 million in the last fundraising quarter -- also not true. That turned out to be an overly generous rounding of the underwhelming real figure: $5.7 million.

I feel like this is reaching a bit.  Rounding up .3 million isn't that surprising, and 5.7 million isn't exactly underwhelming if you're expecting 6 mil.  i just couldn't take this article seriously after they led with that.

I don't think he'll get the nom, but Rubio will be in this for a while longer.