Once he takes every single one of those (no exceptions), he needs to take a state in which HRC leads by over 5 points. Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado. And he needs to not lose Utah.
Then also take into consideration ground game. HRC has it. Trump decidedly does not. Ground game can be worth 2 points or more in the end. There's already a belief among Nevada experts that she has built a D firewall there too large for election day voting to overcome for the Rs.
Also, look at what Trump is up to. He was in CO yesterday. CO and New Mexico today. Michigan for some reason tomorrow. The last time he held a rally in NC, they sent around "sign up to volunteer" sheets through the crowd. Which they never even collected. They are a garbage campaign, and this stuff matters.
That said, I'm now far more concerned about down ballot races since it reinforces the "lets curb her power" argument that the Rs running for senate are pushing.
Yeah at this point I am nervous about the senate races than The White House.
I think she is going to win. The question is the margin.
Post by turnipthebeet on Oct 30, 2016 12:40:54 GMT -5
I'm absolutely worried. I saw an interview on wapo, a guy who has correctly predicted 30 years of elections, and he's doubling down on trump. I didn't watch the interview because this stress is already unhealthy.
I had this exact same freak out this morning. The bottle of celebratory champagne I have chilling until Nov 8 may turn into a bottle of anxiety relief if this thing doesn't go away by this Tuesday.
Post by hopecounts on Oct 30, 2016 12:46:18 GMT -5
Just looked at 538 which was updated 2 hrs ago. She is currently still ahead and likely to win. Based on the current polling data She can loose NC, FL, and NV and still win the EC. It may be closer then we would like but she is very likely to win. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
I'm absolutely worried. I saw an interview on wapo, a guy who has correctly predicted 30 years of elections, and he's doubling down on trump. I didn't watch the interview because this stress is already unhealthy.
Student votes have been pretty reliable also, and they've predicted a Clinton win. I trust the kids.
I think Hillary's campaign has probably been sitting on some oppo research for just a case like this. She hasn't needed to drop anything because of her lead but that doesn't mean they don't have anything. She's running a smart campaign and smart people usually always have something in their back pocket for an instance just like this.
I think Hillary's campaign has probably been sitting in some oppo research for just a case like this. She hasn't needed to drop anything because of her lead but that doesn't mean they don't have anything. She's running a smart campaign and smart people usually always have something in their back pocket for an instance just like this.
Agreed. And she can't toss it out there right now because it will obviously be a "hey! look over here!" thing. Give it a few more days and I bet something will come out.
I think Hillary's campaign has probably been sitting in some oppo research for just a case like this. She hasn't needed to drop anything because of her lead but that doesn't mean they don't have anything. She's running a smart campaign and smart people usually always have something in their back pocket for an instance just like this.
Agreed. And she can't toss it out there right now because it will obviously be a "hey! look over here!" thing. Give it a few more days and I bet something will come out.
If they have something it's definitely best to let this cycle run out a little more then drop something on Tuesday.
Post by jillboston on Oct 30, 2016 13:03:11 GMT -5
I have been in the depths of dread the last 2 days.. But I know most of it is irrational. I'm going to have to apologize to Cubbies fans though (which include HRC and the President) - they can't win this year because the last time a curse was broken - 2004 - John Kerry lost. Did I mention I'm being irrational?
Post by morecoffeeplease on Oct 30, 2016 13:05:56 GMT -5
When the email news came out, I got really nervous and upset. But I really haven't seen much about it on Facebook. So that makes me think people who were voting Hillary aren't bothered by it. And those leaning Hillary are also not bothered by it, especially after the story unfolded a bit. I know of three trump supporters on my fb and they haven't even posted about it.
But I also don't want to trick myself into thinking things are okay when they arent.
And I'd also like to offer up that I think the oppo research will involve corruption in Trumps campaign...the "he's a predator" has run its course but given his background of defrauding people I can only assume there's corruption in his own campaign.
538 has Hillary winning Florida, odds at 57%, as of a half-hour ago. If Trump loses Florida, he's out for good. He *needs* Florida. And with that, I'm calling my son to make sure he and his girlfriend get their ballots in to negate my in-laws' votes. And to vote Murphy. Then I'll try to stop biting my nails. Stop making me nervous here.
I'm absolutely worried. I saw an interview on wapo, a guy who has correctly predicted 30 years of elections, and he's doubling down on trump. I didn't watch the interview because this stress is already unhealthy.
But that means he's only predicted 7 elections. And some of those were probably fairly easy to predict, and for those that weren't you literally have a 50/50 chance at being right
And really, IMO, the only two difficult ones were 92 and 00. Getting out a sitting president is difficult, but GHWB was dealing with a Charm Cannon. 00 would have been a lucky guess at best.
Post by estrellita on Oct 30, 2016 13:18:41 GMT -5
I'm nervous about it but I live in a conservative area. There are TWO Trump signs staring at me every time I open our curtains and a huge one coming into town, not to mention others. I just heard someone at Sam's yesterday talking on the phone about how excited he was that his super Democratic friend wasn't voting for Hillary anymore. I've seen one Hillary sign and that wasn't in my town. I come here and read things a lot to keep me somewhat sane!
Post by sunshine608 on Oct 30, 2016 13:30:17 GMT -5
I'm nervous. I haven't checked 538 since Friday. On one hand though how many truly undecideds are there and I wonder how much early voting will offset this ( meaning many people have already voted). I'm also wondering about a trump bombshell but then i have the same questions for the other side- will they care and people have already voted. As strategic as that campaign is, they have to have something. I'm just ready for it all to be over.
I'm nervous about it but I live in a conservative area. There are TWO Trump signs staring at me every time I open our curtains and a huge one coming into town, not to mention others. I just heard someone at Sam's yesterday talking on the phone about how excited he was that his super Democratic friend wasn't voting for Hillary anymore. I've seen one Hillary sign and that wasn't in my town. I come here and read things a lot to keep me somewhat sane!
I live in one of the most conservative counties in NY and I see 3 Trump signs on my 7 minute drive to work. Going the other direction, I see more Hillary than Trump, and in fact, more Bernie than Trump (because I am driving toward one of the most liberal counties in NY). This is an area that was wallpapered in Romney signs just a few years ago.
Democratic voters are mostly sane and are voting for Hilary. I don't know percentages but clearly there are a good amount of Republicans not voting for Trump. Sure there are the undecided voters but there is no way they're all voting for Trump. The electoral college is in Hilary's favor.