Post by WanderingWinoZ on Feb 6, 2018 10:25:30 GMT -5
I've expected it, but it still sucks! I know SHS has an official line that they care about "long term economic indicators" and Hannity has found a way to blame Obama.
Everything I've read so far is that the correction is normal, we're just going to have lots more increased volatility in the market due to electronic trading.
We swore in a new fed chair yesterday.
Maddow was suggesting last night that one of a few possible triggers (among a host of other factors) was the news about the increased debt & trade deficit.
I haven’t seen VIX action like this in a while. Apparently the after hours trading is also continuing a decline for SPY so tomorrow morning will be volatile again. I think we will see many days like this repeat itself in 2018.
As far as the real estate market goes, there’s probably another 18 -24 months before things get noticeably slow in certain parts of the country. Institutional investors are plowing money into single family rental homes located outside of typical hot spots, so that will prop up the local markets longer. They are backed by government sponsored money for a duty to serve the public mandate. This was not done Pre-2007 so I don’t know how it will affect the real estate cycle at this point. Leverage levels are nowhere near as high as before, which is a good thing. So we shall see.
I don’t have anything except our 401k in stocks, and we’re a long, LONG ways off from retirement, so I’m not following that as closely (plus it’s all Latin to me). But we’re renting in a city that’s had a big housing boom in the last few years, and we were considering buying in a neighborhood over that’s still “up and coming” but the prices there are already starting to skyrocket. Everything I’ve read is making me way too nervous to buy, but I’m worried in 2 years those other neighborhoods are still going to be growing because there’s so much room between the median price there and the neighborhoods around it. If that makes sense. Everything seems so shaky.
I'm not so worried about my retirement funds, as that is roughly 14 years away. My 529 plans for my high school junior and my college sophomore? Yeah, that one kept me up last night.
Everything in the OP is set to make more volatility. I refuse to look at our accounts for now. We went to the bar yesterday and got drunk watching The Drop. It’s going to be okay. I’m sticking with that and not because of dumbass dumpy and his band of merry morons.
Post by goldengirlz on Feb 6, 2018 12:34:46 GMT -5
I think it’s too early to call this a “correction.” It might be the start of a downturn; it might not.
I agree things seem to lining up in that direction, but look at what happened in October 2015 — big sell-off, some volatility for the next four months or so, and then a rapid upward trajectory.
I doubt that’s going to happen AGAIN but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some near-term recovery before The Big One.
ETA: Also, for further perspective on this dip, go to finance.google and click on the five-year view of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Stock prices are so inflated that they’d have to fall A LOT before anyone loses his or her shirt, especially someone who’s been investing for at least a few years. I’d sum it up as: Rich people are a little less rich today.
Post by cattledogkisses on Feb 6, 2018 13:01:23 GMT -5
We were talking with our financial advisor last week, and the gist of what he told us is that the market has been up for the last 9 years, which is one of the longest runs in history, so we're due for a downturn. He said the passage of the tax bill might give the market one last boost for a bit, but they are forecasting a downturn at some point, and it's just hard to predict exactly when that will happen. FWIW, he said that based on their information they are not expecting a recession like in 2008, but there will probably be a lot of volatility in the market.
We were talking with our financial advisor last week, and the gist of what he told us is that the market has been up for the last 9 years, which is one of the longest runs in history, so we're due for a downturn. He said the passage of the tax bill might give the market one last boost for a bit, but they are forecasting a downturn at some point, and it's just hard to predict exactly when that will happen. FWIW, he said that based on their information they are not expecting a recession like in 2008, but there will probably be a lot of volatility in the market.
mine has been saying that same thing to me for like 3+ years!
I was just talking to someone this weekend about this. In essence, bitcoin is a way for tech bros to a) get rich b) separate themselves FURTHER from the "have-nots" and c) feel smug about it.
I haven’t seen VIX action like this in a while. Apparently the after hours trading is also continuing a decline for SPY so tomorrow morning will be volatile again. I think we will see many days like this repeat itself in 2018.
As far as the real estate market goes, there’s probably another 18 -24 months before things get noticeably slow in certain parts of the country. Institutional investors are plowing money into single family rental homes located outside of typical hot spots, so that will prop up the local markets longer. They are backed by government sponsored money for a duty to serve the public mandate. This was not done Pre-2007 so I don’t know how it will affect the real estate cycle at this point. Leverage levels are nowhere near as high as before, which is a good thing. So we shall see.
I don’t have anything except our 401k in stocks, and we’re a long, LONG ways off from retirement, so I’m not following that as closely (plus it’s all Latin to me). But we’re renting in a city that’s had a big housing boom in the last few years, and we were considering buying in a neighborhood over that’s still “up and coming” but the prices there are already starting to skyrocket. Everything I’ve read is making me way too nervous to buy, but I’m worried in 2 years those other neighborhoods are still going to be growing because there’s so much room between the median price there and the neighborhoods around it. If that makes sense. Everything seems so shaky.
I am so far from an expert on any of this, but I feel like if you plan to buy soon anyway and you plan to live in whatever house you buy for a long time, then I feel like you should just buy regardless of the market (if it's not so crazy that you can't afford to buy, of course). You never know what will happen and only hindsight is 20/20. If you ended up realizing that you "overpaid" on the house, well, you paid what you paid and you gotta just pay back the loan no matter what. That's how I look at it.
On the surface, it's a currency. People who buy bitcoins are really just engaging in a transaction no different than exchanging their dollars for Euros. There are a few other crypto-currencies out there, Bitcoin is just the most well known
But these crypto-currencies' real value is in the underlying computer program that makes them work. They all use something called "blockchain technology", which is basically a program that allows you to share something on the internet without replicating it. If I email you a picture, you have the picture and I have the picture. Blockchain technology would let me email you the picture and not still retain the picture, like as if I put the photo in an envelope and snail-mailed it to you. That kind of program has the ability to be incorporated into virtually everything. That's why it has value. Maybe not as much value as it currently has, but as I understand it, buying a "bitcoin" is like buying a stock in a company that owns this program.
On the surface, it's a currency. People who buy bitcoins are really just engaging in a transaction no different than exchanging their dollars for Euros. There are a few other crypto-currencies out there, Bitcoin is just the most well known
But these crypto-currencies' real value is in the underlying computer program that makes them work. They all use something called "blockchain technology", which is basically a program that allows you to share something on the internet without replicating it. If I email you a picture, you have the picture and I have the picture. Blockchain technology would let me email you the picture and not still retain the picture, like as if I put the photo in an envelope and snail-mailed it to you. That kind of program has the ability to be incorporated into virtually everything. That's why it has value. Maybe not as much value as it currently has, but as I understand it, buying a "bitcoin" is like buying a stock in a company that owns this program.
yes. Treating Bitcoin as solely a "currency" is where people go wrong.
On the surface, it's a currency. People who buy bitcoins are really just engaging in a transaction no different than exchanging their dollars for Euros. There are a few other crypto-currencies out there, Bitcoin is just the most well known
But these crypto-currencies' real value is in the underlying computer program that makes them work. They all use something called "blockchain technology", which is basically a program that allows you to share something on the internet without replicating it. If I email you a picture, you have the picture and I have the picture. Blockchain technology would let me email you the picture and not still retain the picture, like as if I put the photo in an envelope and snail-mailed it to you. That kind of program has the ability to be incorporated into virtually everything. That's why it has value. Maybe not as much value as it currently has, but as I understand it, buying a "bitcoin" is like buying a stock in a company that owns this program.
This is one of the clearest explanations of blockchain I’ve heard in a while. And I hear about it a lot at work.
I don’t have anything except our 401k in stocks, and we’re a long, LONG ways off from retirement, so I’m not following that as closely (plus it’s all Latin to me). But we’re renting in a city that’s had a big housing boom in the last few years, and we were considering buying in a neighborhood over that’s still “up and coming” but the prices there are already starting to skyrocket. Everything I’ve read is making me way too nervous to buy, but I’m worried in 2 years those other neighborhoods are still going to be growing because there’s so much room between the median price there and the neighborhoods around it. If that makes sense. Everything seems so shaky.
I am so far from an expert on any of this, but I feel like if you plan to buy soon anyway and you plan to live in whatever house you buy for a long time, then I feel like you should just buy regardless of the market (if it's not so crazy that you can't afford to buy, of course). You never know what will happen and only hindsight is 20/20. If you ended up realizing that you "overpaid" on the house, well, you paid what you paid and you gotta just pay back the loan no matter what. That's how I look at it.
This. As my example: we bought our house as a place to live in, not an investment. We had plans for short-term since we really only needed a place to put our furniture and our heads while the market was going crazy and we were in the midst of a cross-country relocation. Then the market crashed in 2007 and we lost about 1/3 of the value of our house (went from $425K to $290K conservatively) so we couldn't move without losing our shirts. So we decided to stay instead of move into a condo downtown after all. Then we got the girls and were glad to have those extra bedrooms and suburban location in the good school district, for which we bought this house in the first place, and we're here to stay until they graduate at the very least. Now the market is back up and our house is worth in the $600K range according to estimates (I'd say more likely $550 but still more than $100K than we paid 12 years ago and $250K from the bottom of the market 5-7 years ago.)
The folks who did great are the ones who bought at the bottom. But you can't time the market. We bought at the top but still are managing to do okay because we've stayed through every boom and bust and will continue to do so. Our house isn't going to drop below what we paid for it again, because we've already appreciated out of that cycle.
My first house we paid $85K thirty years ago. We sold it seven years later...for $87K. It had risen to $225K in 2005 during the height of the boom, then dropped to $165K. It's back up to $250K or so from riding the market, meeting the "boom" price of ten years ago.
You're buying a house, not an investment. If you were planning to turn it in the next couple years, I'd say differently but if you plan to stay there for the duration, you're better off buying now and riding any "correction" if there is one.
Post by claudiajean on Feb 6, 2018 14:55:46 GMT -5
The thing I remind myself is that even a 1000 point drop and the market is still higher than it was at the start of the year. Things have just been going so up so quickly lately.
I haven’t seen VIX action like this in a while. Apparently the after hours trading is also continuing a decline for SPY so tomorrow morning will be volatile again. I think we will see many days like this repeat itself in 2018.
axios er Axios' Dan Primack, the VIX volatility index yesterday spiked in a way we've only seen three other times since it was created in 1993:
1999 dotcom crash
2009 credit crisis
2011 fears over debt ceiling vote
... and then it went even higher in the aftermarket. Several exchange-traded notes inversely related to the VIX, including XIV, have experienced a free fall as volatility spikes. Some fear that Credit Suisse and other volatility-related issuers' move to liquidate their funds will further drive up the VIX and trigger another big equity sell-off.
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We sold a lot of stock in the 3rd/4th quarters of 2017 because we were hoping to purchase another home. I'm so thankful we pulled a decent amount of cash out while the market was up. It's one positive that came out of having to walk away from our dream home. Now we're keeping our eyes on what we may want to buy "on sale" in the coming months. I have a nearly 550% gain on Google because I took a chance on what happened to be it's lowest day about 10 yrs ago.
I don't think we'll see what transpired in 2007/2008, but I do anticipate quite a few amusement park style drops. We'll slam down a little, bounce up and recover slightly, then sink down again unexpectedly.
ESF I would definitely consider throwing that cash at straight stock or an ETF while things are down. You never quite know when we're going to hit the bottom of this bumpy ride, so even if the price drops a few more times after you purchase, you're still going to get a deal if you compare the quote a few years from now, to say, January 2018. And congrats on the bonus!
Man, I miss the days when everyone suggested laddering CDs with your extra cash through ShareBuilder and Orange Savings on MM!
Did anyone else notice that Capital One Investing is being sold to E-Trade? A couple of years ago ShareBuilder (think ING and "Orange Savings") was sold to Capital One. They retained the same platform and merely branded it with CO logos. Last night I read a notice on the COI site that the sale will wrap up by the close of this year. The E Trade platform is decent, but I actually really like the format ShareBuilder created back in the day. We mostly purchase DRIPs, but I utilize Capital One Investing (previously SB) for quick trades and as a place to easily toss mad money. Really disappointed about the transition to E-Trade.
I got a long awaited bonus yesterday. I guess I should just let it sit in my regular Bank of America account and earn no interest for a while, huh?
This is my plan for my tax refund. (Yes I know I'm not supposed to get a refund, yadda yadda).
Honestly, I would rather let the government earn a little interest off of my money and get a couple thousand back than deal with having to pay. It's not worth my time to tweak things just right so I'm on the cusp or only have to pay a little. I would rather just get a refund some years.SaveSave