Runners- How do you calculate your "goal" pace?

[bullygirl979]

I'm doing my first race (half marathon) in a longgggg time. My last half marathon was back in 2011 and I believe I did it in about 2:10. A couple of things about that time: 1) I followed an online plan and most of my runs were at the same pace and 2) I ran a horrible race.

I signed up for a half training plan with my LRS. It's a 16 week plan and it's a mix of recovery runs, slow steady long runs, "race pace" runs and group workouts. The group workouts are hills, mile repeats, ladder workouts, etc. I know the plan is "working" as we did mile repeats last week. My first three mile repeats were 30-40 seconds faster per mile than when we did them 8 weeks ago.

I'm trying to figure out what a realistic goal is for this half. I don't want to go out to fast and then become gassed for the second half of the race. Long post made longer...how do you figure out what your goal time is?

[Mrs.flang]

McMillan has an online calculator if you have a recent shorter race, or really any other distance to estimate what's realistic for a longer distance. I like to go into a race having an A goal and B goal and sometimes even a C goal if things go really bad!

[mrshandy]

What are you doing your race pace runs at ? What's your long run pace?

Or like Mrs.flang, said. Take a recent race and plug it into McMillan and see what comes from it.

Does the LRS have a coach or someone leading the half training plan? They would probably be a good resource.

[bullygirl979]

mrshandy, they have me in the 10:00 pace group for the long runs. That pace was determined the first workout as they had us run 1 mile all out. I did it in 8 minutes. Just for comparison, we did mile repeats last week and my first 3 repeats were 8:05, 8:09 and 8:11. And it was 87 degrees and humid out. So I know I'm WAY stronger than I was when this started.

For the race pace runs I am supposed to do a 1 mile warm up and 1 mile cool down at the 10 min/mile with the middle part as the race pace. When this started I asked the two coaches what is a realistic "race pace" and I was told something around 9:30 min/mile. Most days (unless I'm exhausted or it's hot as balls) 9:30 is a way easy pace. I don't even feel like I'm working very hard at all. I tend to fluctuate around 9-9:30 min/mile now. However, the longest race pace run we are doing is 50 minutes, so 30 minutes of actual race pace when you work in warm up and cool down times.

[bullygirl979]

Mrs.flang, cool! I'll check that calculator out! And yes, this board taught me to shoot for three goals, I just don't know what is realistic. Ha!

[mrshandy]

Based on all of that, I would estimate your race pace around 830-45. But that's just my experience as a runner talking. Could you try to move up to a faster pace group if you feel like the pace runs are too easy for you? I would totally use the calculator. What's realistic depends on your training, the course, the weather that day.

Race pace for a half marathon should feel challenging and you shouldn't really be able to talk much. I know I'm fairly miserable for half marathons where I'm trying to PR. LOL. I can maintain the pace, but not really think about much else. Of course, you don't have to run like this. If you want to give it your all, then by all means go for it. But there is nothing wrong with running at a pace that feels strong, but not miserable.

[bullygirl979]

mrshandy, thanks! You've definitely given me some food for thought. Before I posted this my stretch goal was a sub 2 and I was pretty confident that unless I had an awful race I could come in at a 2:05. I just didn't know if those were realistic goals. It's also a pretty flat course (from what I'm told) so that works in my favor.

[gt7301b]

As a general run for longer races I usually aim about a minute faster than my long run pace.

Since this is your first half in a while you might start out at the 2:05 pace and if you are feeling good pick it up and aim for a sub 2. My take on goals is if you want to run a sub 2 that should be your goal. Sometimes you just have to set a goal and go for it to determine if it is realistic. If you do crash, so be it, you went for it.

[foundmylazybum]

In this case the mile time trial determines your pace.

I plugged it into jack Daniel's vdot and your predicted time is 2:03 which is 9:27/mile.

[bullygirl979]

Aug 27, 2019 13:59:50 GMT -5 gt7301b said:

As a general run for longer races I usually aim about a minute faster than my long run pace.

Since this is your first half in a while you might start out at the 2:05 pace and if you are feeling good pick it up and aim for a sub 2. My take on goals is if you want to run a sub 2 that should be your goal. Sometimes you just have to set a goal and go for it to determine if it is realistic. If you do crash, so be it, you went for it.

Yeah that's good advice. I guess I'd rather take the chance and crash than get to the finish line and feel like I had more left in me.

[bullygirl979]

foundmylazybum, that's a cool calculator! Thanks!

[moreace01]

I plugged your mile time into McMillan calculator and it is saying on race day, to be about a 10 minute pace and expected finish time of around 2:09. I also checked my pace chart from my marathon group and that says the same thing. I think all of this sort of depends on what kind of runner you are - I think. Some people can run a race way, way faster than their training pace. Some of us cannot (I think I fall into this group). Anyway, on race day, I agree with the advice of starting out with the 2:05 group. If you feel good later, pick it up. If you don't, well, you'll just slow down.

Either way, it sounds like you are on target given your current mile pace. Good luck! Have fun!

[bullygirl979]

Just an update, we did a 9 mile run today. This is the last long run in this build up (next week is a recovery week). The pacer was quick and I ended up doing the 9 at an overall pace of 9:22. If I can do that on tired legs, I’m confident I can at least do a 9:30 pace on fresh legs to get me the 2:05.