Post by dutchgirl678 on Sept 24, 2020 1:47:24 GMT -5
Biden will absolutely win. Trump is so desperate right now that he is throwing everything out there to put the result in doubt. And with his ridiculous statements he is creating chaos and despondency and many are falling for it.
When I start to get anxious about 2020, I like to read the news articles from 2018 that talk about the "blue tsunami" and the massive increase in voter turnout for Dems (one example linked above). We've had two more years of organizing and of 45 doing more and more heinous shit. How many new voters could be be attracting vs how many independents who voted for him in 2016 have become disillusioned?
"I choose the discipline of hope over the ease of cynicism" Mariame Kaba
I think Biden will win overwhelmingly for popular and electoral. I wouldn’t have said that before COVID but so many people are out of work and they see 45 out there not giving a shit. This is real for people now. I also think the “hidden” vote that 45 got in 2016 in this election will be the “new” voters who registered for the first time.
The more I think about it, the more this poll is so disheartening. Even our base doesn’t think we can win. And we chose Biden, presumably, because he was “electable.” Like .. we lined up the oldest, whitest, blandest man we could find for this purpose.
I wonder how the results of this poll would have gone if someone like Warren had gotten the nom. Or if, like, Michelle Obama were running. Are we so sure of Trump’s appeal — so pessimistic about our fellow Americans — or do we just really not like Biden?
I believe I’d be this despondent if anyone else was the nom. Because Trump would still be doing everything he can to win.
I mostly agree with Michelle too except for the shy Trump voter thing. I think this is not as big a concern this year. They are loud and proud this time so I think the number of shy voters is minuscule.
The more I think about it, the more this poll is so disheartening. Even our base doesn’t think we can win. And we chose Biden, presumably, because he was “electable.” Like .. we lined up the oldest, whitest, blandest man we could find for this purpose.
I wonder how the results of this poll would have gone if someone like Warren had gotten the nom. Or if, like, Michelle Obama were running. Are we so sure of Trump’s appeal — so pessimistic about our fellow Americans — or do we just really not like Biden?
I actually like Biden far more than I thought I did. I preferred several other candidates, but the convention convinced me he's the best choice for the moment. I am excited to vote for him because I think he could do a lot to fix this mess we're in, and he's a good person. He may not be my dream candidate, but now doesn't feel like a time when dreaming is even important.
I also think more Americans want Biden's version of the US than Trump's. But I am highly cynical after 2016. I don't trust my gut anymore. I don't trust the media, because all I saw then and ever since is anti-Trump and yet he is President, hasn't been impeached, and the Republicans haven't lost the senate. So the system is either extremely rigged (which it is) or there are far more people who support this direction than I can really understand based on the media I consume and the people I have in my circle. I guess I just have a lot of doubt that the world as I see it aligns with the real world.
I think the pandemic has only increased my skepticism about this because I am still baffled that people think it is a hoax or no big deal or that their wearing a mask has no effect on anyone else or that their right to do whatever they please is more important than public health. There is a large section of this country who live on a different planet than I do. It is hard to understand how many of them there are, and also, how they align with the electoral college.
I think Biden will get more votes. I do not know that he will win the electoral college. And with the USPS being a shit show right now, I am not confident in the vote by mail system helping us much. I am not concerned about fraud, but I am concerned that we won't have an answer until long after enough damage has been done to put a Biden win into question.
The more I think about it, the more this poll is so disheartening. Even our base doesn’t think we can win. And we chose Biden, presumably, because he was “electable.” Like .. we lined up the oldest, whitest, blandest man we could find for this purpose.
I wonder how the results of this poll would have gone if someone like Warren had gotten the nom. Or if, like, Michelle Obama were running. Are we so sure of Trump’s appeal — so pessimistic about our fellow Americans — or do we just really not like Biden?
I actually think Biden has a lot of appeal and I think most everyone who voted for Hillary in 2016 will vote for him plus he will get some folks in the middle and some Bernie people who didn’t vote for her, but will for him. I also have hope he will get some Republicans who aren’t totally sucked into the GOP machine.
Biden will win the popular vote for sure, and- like Hillary did - by a landslide. I think he will win by an even bigger landslide than she did, but there will be none of the naive excitement everyone had on election night in 2016.
I’m worried that because of voter disenfranchisement, because he’s stoked these racist and misogynistic flames, because his base smells blood in the water, because he has foreign governments working on his side to disrupt the process, because the electoral college is a joke, Trump will pull out all the stops to remain in power.
Best case scenario (and the one I hope for, although I’m not optimistic it will play out this way) is that Biden emerges as the clear winner on election night with a compelling lead in several swing states. We also see some exciting Senate wins that put us in the narrow majority.
This, at least, will put us in a better position to fight the legal battle. I’m very glad Biden has already pulled together a strong legal team.
The more I think about it, the more this poll is so disheartening. Even our base doesn’t think we can win. And we chose Biden, presumably, because he was “electable.” Like .. we lined up the oldest, whitest, blandest man we could find for this purpose.
I wonder how the results of this poll would have gone if someone like Warren had gotten the nom. Or if, like, Michelle Obama were running. Are we so sure of Trump’s appeal — so pessimistic about our fellow Americans — or do we just really not like Biden?
I picked "contested" not because I think Biden won't get more votes (I think he will - I am optimistic about the majority) but because Trump is already actively finding ways to suppress Biden votes so that he can claim victory. He admitted as much about DeJoy and the post office already. He has crony governors working in a few states to try to sow enough doubt (e.g. by technical issues with mail ballots) that their EC votes can be directed at him.
Of course there are still the 38% or whatever who will vote for him no matter what. I am pretty pessimistic about them.
Post by lilypad1126 on Sept 24, 2020 8:21:47 GMT -5
I chose Biden in the poll. Because I really do think he'll win. But I also think Trump will do everything in his power to cause chaos, and we'll all be lucky if he actually leaves the White House under his own power.
I live in a very red state. And I follow a bunch of community pages on facebook, with a lot of Trump supporters who comment (like, most of their comments are Trump is amazing even when the post if about how shitty our roads are #eyeroll). And while my state will FOR SURE go for Trump, I'm noticing that some of the commenters have moved from ardent Trump supporter to "well, maybe he's wrong and we should wear masks because my elderly relative now has covid and my cousin lost his job". Now, don't get me wrong, there aren't enough of them to flip my state, but it gives me a miniscule amount of hope to see people making even this small concession.
But also, for as optimistic as I am in every other aspect of my life, I cannot be optimistic about this election. I'm still feeling the effects of my optimism in 2016, and I cannot do that again. So, while I think Biden will win, other than saying it here, that thought lives in a very small corner of me because I cannot put myself through the anger/hurt/sadness that I've felt for the last 4 years.
Trump has made it very clear that he believes that anything other than a decisive win for him is evidence of voter fraud, and that he will not concede. I don't think he will win decisively.
I will admit to rolling my eyes a few months ago at people who were wringing their hands about Trump not accepting defeat. Because, I mean, this is America, we are not a dictatorship, of COURSE he'll transfer power.
But I see now that I was wrong. He is has said as much. I've been really unsettled since I saw his response to the questions about peaceful transfer of power yesterday.
Post by litebright on Sept 24, 2020 9:08:42 GMT -5
I want to believe that Biden will win. I'm not sure if the EC will go our way, though.
I just have this horrible feeling that we're spiraling toward something, though, and that it may be beyond the ability to stop even if Biden wins. I don't know what the end-state of this crisis looks like, though. Do we become a fully corrupt oligarchy with elections that are known to be a farce -- basically, Russia? Full-out revolution/civil war seems unlikely, TBH, because so many people are apathetic. I'm not sure what a failed-state looks like in the U.S. and I'm honestly not sure at what point the collective "we" would realize that we are in one -- there are plenty of "small government" people who would probably consider a failed state that can't effectively govern beyond the military, to be their ideal situation, and by the time they realize that oh wait, we need government for X, it will be too late and the government will be unable to do X at all. The problem with being told/believing that government is fundamentally bad and a failure, and then you see that happening IRL, it doesn't inspire you to work for change, it encourages you to ignore government altogether because ... it's fundamentally bad, so it can't be changed and why try.
There are a lot of parallels to history with what's happening specifically with Trump -- yes, I'm going to go there and say the Germans didn't think they could lose their democracy either, they thought the guardrails of their system would contain Hitler -- but I feel like our fall is also going to be uniquely American. It just feels like too many things -- economic inequality, racial resentment, nationalism vs globalism, climate change, the loss of a political "middle" or sense of the common good -- are coming to a head all at once and we seem to be beyond the point of compromise, or even discussion, about any of them, when one side is so completely unhinged in its perception of reality and/or facts. When judges are ruling that basically our constitution does not allow a mandate to support universal health care, that governors can't impose mask mandates or other actions to protect the public during a pandemic, that individuals must be allowed to carry guns openly under any circumstances with as large a magazine as they want -- then we've come to a point where our own founding document makes us fundamentally ungovernable. And even if the constitution did not, there's a large slice of this country that no longer feels that our government is legitimate, depending on who is in office. (I'm not going to address whether Trump actually is, lol). If you put everyone together on both the right and the left who feels that the other side is not a legitimate governing force, I think it's probably a majority of the population, or close to it. And that is an existential problem for a nation, so what does our continued existence even look like? Can we stop the slide so that Trump is our rock-bottom? I'm not sure.
OTOH and to go off on a related tangent, I read a different Atlantic article the other day that made me feel a bit better about SCOTUS. The premise was that it's an aberration that the courts were "progressive" for the last few decades, and historically the courts have hindered changing of the status quo rather than supporting it. We as a generation expect them to be helpful to liberal causes because of the time period that we've lived in. But social progress has been made in spite of the courts before -- which to me, means we can do it again, but we have to expect the courts to be an adversary rather than an ally.
Post by Velar Fricative on Sept 24, 2020 9:40:21 GMT -5
litebright, maybe civil war is too much but there is already a clear divide between blue and red states. I mean, just in 2020 alone, it is abundantly clear that the Trump administrations gives no fucks about covid deaths and suffering in "blue states." A few years ago, the big tax legislation was a fuck you to blue states. Cities in three blue states are now "anarchist jurisdictions" and I'm sure a few more are not far behind. And blue states are paying most of the federal bills and not getting much in return. This is really not new - I'll never forget the GOP holding up Sandy aid to the northeast or holding up the Zadroga Act for first responders, both of which I feel were also the result of blue state antipathy. I'm using NY examples because I live here, and I feel angry that we've been "othered" for so long. Like we're not "real America" even if we are an economic boon for America. And I don't see us clawing our way out of this and going back to "normal" when all is said and done even if Biden wins and there is a peaceful transfer of power.
I feel like telling myself this and not letting myself hope for better does two things: 1. Keeps me motivated to donate, talk to people, etc. 2. Keeps my expectations low so my mental health isn’t a complete shit show when Trump does win.
Exactly how I feel. I was very optimistic last time thinking Clinton would win. I remember being so excited and happy and gloating that she won. Then it all went downhill and it legit broke me that people would vote for that clown.
This is their plan - the president will be whomever the tv stations announce as the leader/“winner” on Election Night itself, before all the mail-in ballots are counted. And right now that’s leaning toward Trump, correct?
Post by dutchgirl678 on Sept 24, 2020 10:14:59 GMT -5
Quote from Daniel Goldman (attorney involved in the Congress impeachment proceedings) on Twitter:
"Feels like we need a positive thought today. Consider this: civic engagement in our political process has never been higher, and it’s very likely that this election will shatter total voter records.
This is how democracy thrives, not dies."
Also, Biden was not my first choice but Kamala was. Biden has really impressed me though and with his experience in the Senate and as VP and his ability to relate to people and care for them, I think he is the best candidate to defeat Trump.
Post by ohgillian on Sept 24, 2020 10:15:10 GMT -5
Those of you saying "civil war" in this thread, what are you picturing, exactly? I'm more curious than skeptical. I mean, do you have weapons are you're preparing to fight? Are you planning how your family will get thru a war? What do you picture when you use the phrase "civil war" in this thread?
Post by litebright on Sept 24, 2020 10:18:16 GMT -5
Re: this poll, I remember seeing something, maybe on NPR, that pollsters trying to find the "hidden" Trump supporters by asking both whether people are going to vote for him AND whether they think he will win, because people who don't want to admit that they'll vote for him might still answer the second question as an indication of support.
I don't think there are a bunch of hidden Trump supporters here and I know a lot of us are donating and doing other things to actively support Dems, so it seems like answering that question positively may mean you're pessimistic about your fellow humans rather than secretly voting for Trump or just despairing and not doing anything.
I still don't trust the polls and I wish the media would quit reporting on national polls that have Biden 10 points ahead. That doesn't matter if he's not ahead in PA, AZ, MI and the swing states that will make the difference.
I think we are already in a civil war. This time though instead of fighting with weapons we are fighting with social issues. Taking away rights from POC and women. We are seeing voter suppression, social media wars, and political battles we didn't imagine. I can't explain my thoughts very well but we as a society are so very divided and it feels like a civil war to me.
I have no idea what to think about the election. I'm in a red state (Texas) and I know several people that voted for Trump last time that won't this time. The basis is Trump is too hateful. That makes me VERY ragey...sure feel comfortable voting for the white man and not a woman but at this point okay I'll take it. Whatever the motivation is people need to show up big to vote out Trump. Will he leave if he loses? I think so....but I think he will do his best to destroy whatever he can on his way out. I don't know y'all. I won't give up hope though. Our luck in 2020 has to turn sometime and I don't see why it can't be the election.
Those of you saying "civil war" in this thread, what are you picturing, exactly? I'm more curious than skeptical. I mean, do you have weapons are you're preparing to fight? Are you planning how your family will get thru a war? What do you picture when you use the phrase "civil war" in this thread?
I'm using my own family - mostly former military people - as an example. They have already labeled H and I as "enemies"...literally. They would think nothing of, given the *wink* from Trump, going to any kind of protest/gathering and shooting the enemies of America. They literally think that's what liberals are. And because they've been trained by the military to view enemies as not-humans, they have no problem with violence against them.
I know (hope?) there aren't enough of them to do complete damage. But they will go where called, given the opening. I also look at his dispatching these "government officials" to liberal cities, and the stockpiling....maybe not a civil war, but the groundwork is there for this government to go to war against it's own citizens, and I'm not sure there is a stop gap for that anymore.
eta: I want to be clear that despite my views here, I still remain hopeful. I still remain vocal. I still think Biden will actually win. It's the rest of it that I'm worried about.
The more I think about it, the more this poll is so disheartening. Even our base doesn’t think we can win. And we chose Biden, presumably, because he was “electable.” Like .. we lined up the oldest, whitest, blandest man we could find for this purpose.
I wonder how the results of this poll would have gone if someone like Warren had gotten the nom. Or if, like, Michelle Obama were running. Are we so sure of Trump’s appeal — so pessimistic about our fellow Americans — or do we just really not like Biden?
Personally, it's not Biden's appeal that I'm worried about. It's Trump's willingness to find every loophole and even break laws to stay in power. I think Biden will win the popular vote, just like Hillary did last time.
This is where I am. 2 years ago when we had eleventy thousand Dem candidates, I predicted (in my house, not a grand proclamation) that Trump would win no matter who we put up. At the time, I suspected a win through Russian interference. But I never would have predicted a win through such obvious and ham-fisted cheating. I guess I underestimated how low T republicans are willing to go to ensure a party victory, but the sham impeachment Senate trial sure disabused me of that idea.
Those of you saying "civil war" in this thread, what are you picturing, exactly? I'm more curious than skeptical. I mean, do you have weapons are you're preparing to fight? Are you planning how your family will get thru a war? What do you picture when you use the phrase "civil war" in this thread?
I'm using my own family - mostly former military people - as an example. They have already labeled H and I as "enemies"...literally. They would think nothing of, given the *wink* from Trump, going to any kind of protest/gathering and shooting the enemies of America. They literally think that's what liberals are. And because they've been trained by the military to view enemies as not-humans, they have no problem with violence against them.
I know (hope?) there aren't enough of them to do complete damage. But they will go where called, given the opening. I also look at his dispatching these "government officials" to liberal cities, and the stockpiling....maybe not a civil war, but the groundwork is there for this government to go to war against it's own citizens, and I'm not sure there is a stop gap for that anymore.
Sitting next to Taratru.
I see the same types of people in my family across multiple states preparing to "defend themselves" from liberal socialist invaders, "ghetto looters" (we all know that means black people), and illegals (we know that to mean brown people, even though some of the people saying it are also brown people).
I see the state guards being dispatched under the direction of the staunch red governors if they deem it necessary.
And I see the Ted Cruz's of the world who know better being too chicken shit to stand up against it, watching and wringing their hands and convincing themselves it was the BLM and Antifa and Pelosi and AOC and... and... who incited this and therefore it is out of his hands.
I think we are already in a civil war. This time though instead of fighting with weapons we are fighting with social issues. Taking away rights from POC and women. We are seeing voter suppression, social media wars, and political battles we didn't imagine. I can't explain my thoughts very well but we as a society are so very divided and it feels like a civil war to me.
I have no idea what to think about the election. I'm in a red state (Texas) and I know several people that voted for Trump last time that won't this time. The basis is Trump is too hateful. That makes me VERY ragey...sure feel comfortable voting for the white man and not a woman but at this point okay I'll take it. Whatever the motivation is people need to show up big to vote out Trump. Will he leave if he loses? I think so....but I think he will do his best to destroy whatever he can on his way out. I don't know y'all. I won't give up hope though. Our luck in 2020 has to turn sometime and I don't see why it can't be the election.
That makes me hopeful. I don't know a single person who openly voted for Trump last time who plan to vote for Biden.
I know some who are voting for Jojo in protest. That's pretty much a vote for Trump in Texas.
I think we are already in a civil war. This time though instead of fighting with weapons we are fighting with social issues. Taking away rights from POC and women. We are seeing voter suppression, social media wars, and political battles we didn't imagine. I can't explain my thoughts very well but we as a society are so very divided and it feels like a civil war to me.
I have no idea what to think about the election. I'm in a red state (Texas) and I know several people that voted for Trump last time that won't this time. The basis is Trump is too hateful. That makes me VERY ragey...sure feel comfortable voting for the white man and not a woman but at this point okay I'll take it. Whatever the motivation is people need to show up big to vote out Trump. Will he leave if he loses? I think so....but I think he will do his best to destroy whatever he can on his way out. I don't know y'all. I won't give up hope though. Our luck in 2020 has to turn sometime and I don't see why it can't be the election.
That makes me hopeful. I don't know a single person who openly voted for Trump last time who plan to vote for Biden.
I know some who are voting for Jojo in protest. That's pretty much a vote for Trump in Texas.
My dad in Texas is a lifelong republican and has a Biden sign in his front yard. But he has been an anti-Trump republican since before the 2016 election, when he voted for a 3rd party candidate.
My hope is that the dickheads who were going to stay home or vote third party now hate Mitch McConnell too bad to do that. I was heartened by the ActBlue fundraising over the weekend after RBG’s passing.
However, I’d be pleasantly surprised if Joe wins and not surprised at all if Trump does, so I guess that’s my answer.
GOD I WANT TO HIT HIM WITH MY FUCKING CRV
H and I were talking about this last night. I may have offered to sacrifice myself for the betterment of all of humanity by offering to do something similar.
The more I think about it, the more this poll is so disheartening. Even our base doesn’t think we can win. And we chose Biden, presumably, because he was “electable.” Like .. we lined up the oldest, whitest, blandest man we could find for this purpose.
I wonder how the results of this poll would have gone if someone like Warren had gotten the nom. Or if, like, Michelle Obama were running. Are we so sure of Trump’s appeal — so pessimistic about our fellow Americans — or do we just really not like Biden?
I believe I’d be this despondent if anyone else was the nom. Because Trump would still be doing everything he can to win.
I mostly agree with Michelle too except for the shy Trump voter thing. I think this is not as big a concern this year. They are loud and proud this time so I think the number of shy voters is minuscule.
I disagree on the non-vocal Trump supporters. I think their numbers remain large and I fully believe these are people we all know and interact with daily. I do not think all Trump supporters are loud and proud gun toters. They are Executives, doctors, lawyers, ministers, teachers, actors, cooks, dog walkers, house keepers, factory workers, volunteers, etc. They are new voters and old voters. Not acknowledging this is why so many were surprised in 2016.
a) we are already in a civil war, it's just a civil Cold war
b) I think Biden wins. I think he may even win in a landslide if things continue like this for the next 40 days.
c) Trump is doing two things right now: one he is trying to demoralize everyone who wants to vote him out by being his tinpot dictator self because he's desperate and losing. Two, yes, he will do whatever he can to win, whatever that means. But do your best to not be defeatist because this is definitely a two pronged attack here from him and his crew (and Russia for that matter) where these are genuine concerns we should be prepared for, but also it is psychological warfare you should not give in to.
d) a lot of these news articles are about preparation and letting us all know WE MAY NOT KNOW ON NOVEMBER 3rd. Forewarned is forearmed. Biden has a legal team set up, he isn't going to concede, and neither should we.
So true... meaningless to say you'll accept it with conditions that you get to judge if it was acceptable. What a narcissist and the WH Press Secretary is a narcissist enabler.
Post by formerlyak on Sept 24, 2020 13:20:47 GMT -5
lemoncupcake replace "Texan" with "Veteran" and you have my dad to a tee. And he has many friends who he was in the military with who feel the same.
abs I think your rage could be spun as hope. Maybe they voted for Trump last time, but have seen what 4 years of Trump means and the hate that brings, they have seen that they made a bad choice last time and want to do better this time. I woke up ragey and am trying to change my attitude because it isn't productive.