Help me make sense of State Dept travel advisories

[wise_rita]

I follow the State Department on Facebook and they posted their most recent updates of travel advisories: travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/?fbclid=IwAR1elOu5Bm4s0mTdi0fCfMdFQSqZDu8ZBEV6u7BAZ_Mgsba7KNg8WWHhx2k

Countries to avoid because of Covid (Level 4): Finland, Japan, Belgium, essentially all of western Europe.

Level 1-2 no dramas at all: Senegal, Mozambique, Liberia and other places they specifically mention high crime and terrorism.

Can anybody put reason behind this?  Because my trust in this list is rapidly diminishing.

[Deleted]

Lurker- I’m currently in Portugal and it was listed as level 4 because of high covid. But really the covid levels have dropped in Portugal similar to the US and Portugal is also very highly vaccinated. When I was planning this trip and trying to figure out where to go every country I looked at going to was level 4 due to covid. So I stopped caring what they had to say about the covid level in other countries. Also, the level 4 for Japan is particularly hilarious considering Japan’s borders are still mostly closed and completely closed to tourism. We had a trip scheduled to Japan in May 2020, May 2021, and May 2022 (just canceled last week) and even when Japan had essentially no covid it was still listed as level 4 due to high covid cases. It means little IMO, especially considering the high levels of covid in the US for most of the last 2 years.

[dulcemariamar]

I saw that Spain from Monday wont require people who test positive to isolate if they dont have symptoms. That seems like a really bad idea. It looks like the waves are coming closer together so it just hard to plan your trip if you look at travel advisories.

[wise_rita]

Mar 22, 2022 15:52:07 GMT -5 @mrsgreeko said:

Lurker- I’m currently in Portugal and it was listed as level 4 because of high covid. But really the covid levels have dropped in Portugal similar to the US and Portugal is also very highly vaccinated. When I was planning this trip and trying to figure out where to go every country I looked at going to was level 4 due to covid. So I stopped caring what they had to say about the covid level in other countries. Also, the level 4 for Japan is particularly hilarious considering Japan’s borders are still mostly closed and completely closed to tourism. We had a trip scheduled to Japan in May 2020, May 2021, and May 2022 (just canceled last week) and even when Japan had essentially no covid it was still listed as level 4 due to high covid cases. It means little IMO, especially considering the high levels of covid in the US for most of the last 2 years.

Precisely!  I'm wondering why they risk the legitimacy of this rating system with this lunacy.

[Deleted]

Mar 22, 2022 16:27:55 GMT -5 dulcemariamar said:

I saw that Spain from Monday wont require people who test positive to isolate if they dont have symptoms. That seems like a really bad idea. It looks like the waves are coming closer together so it just hard to plan your trip if you look at travel advisories.

The US never legally required people to isolate with covid symptoms or not.

[Deleted]

Mar 22, 2022 16:30:13 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

Mar 22, 2022 15:52:07 GMT -5 @mrsgreeko said:

Lurker- I’m currently in Portugal and it was listed as level 4 because of high covid. But really the covid levels have dropped in Portugal similar to the US and Portugal is also very highly vaccinated. When I was planning this trip and trying to figure out where to go every country I looked at going to was level 4 due to covid. So I stopped caring what they had to say about the covid level in other countries. Also, the level 4 for Japan is particularly hilarious considering Japan’s borders are still mostly closed and completely closed to tourism. We had a trip scheduled to Japan in May 2020, May 2021, and May 2022 (just canceled last week) and even when Japan had essentially no covid it was still listed as level 4 due to high covid cases. It means little IMO, especially considering the high levels of covid in the US for most of the last 2 years.

Precisely!  I'm wondering why they risk the legitimacy of this rating system with this lunacy.

I mean I’ll probably still kind of care what they have to say about things like safety/terrorism risk/crime/etc, but they often say things are worse than they usually are in reality. I have always kind of taken it with a grain of salt, but the covid stuff has just been ridiculous:

[basilosaurus]

I've only been in level 4, yet locally (a largish island with more people than some countries) we had zero cases from apr 2020 to sept 2020 when we got 3 new arrival cases. So, yeah, I don't really pay attention.

They don't rate the US, but if they did, it would be level 4. It seems people are carrying on as usual now with mask mandates for schools disappearing (or never existing) and airline masks going away in a few weeks.

The only thing I look at is if visiting a certain country affects my return from it.

[mrsukyankee]

Mar 22, 2022 16:27:55 GMT -5 dulcemariamar said:

I saw that Spain from Monday wont require people who test positive to isolate if they dont have symptoms. That seems like a really bad idea. It looks like the waves are coming closer together so it just hard to plan your trip if you look at travel advisories.

We've had that for over a month. And we now have almost the highest rate of Covid we've in ages. London has an estimated 1 in 15 people with Covid and it's getting worse. I wouldn't travel here at all.

[Cappy]

It certainly baffles me as well. My job is greatly impacted by this due to our institutional policy of only allowing travel to Level 1 & 2 destinations. My job has been stuck in the mud for 2 years due to these levels.

During the pandemic (can't remember when) DOS levels started incorporating CDC levels into their metrics. Prior to that shift, they each issued their own ratings and there was a time when they did not have the same rating for the same country (which made sense to me). Then they collapsed them down into one and it seems less helpful (ex. UK and Ukraine are both 4). And levels are just more volatile now. It used to be those levels changed infrequently. Now things change all of the time (up and down) bc Covid is into the mix.

Depending on your reason for monitoring levels, I'd suggest using the Covid-19 pages that DOS puts out for each country and reading the advisories more in-depth. If it is personal travel there is plenty of info for you to gauge comfort level. They will give info on if it is "due to covid" or "due to terrorism" etc. but also indicate if there are regions inside a country that are at a higher level than the overall country level.

I wonder if some rationale for the high levels is the high risk of disruption vs. a risk of covid. It's a bit paternalistic but I suspect they are trying to convey your risk of being trapped abroad for X days at your own expense if you test positive should be considered a "risk" on it's own. It still doesn't explain why the level 1&2 countries are all in Africa. We have lots of discussion in our office about this and we are also baffled. Many of our peer institutions are still sending to levels 3 & 4 if the level is solely "due to covid".

[waverly]

Is this for personal or business travel? Well it says do not travel to Canada right now, and I am sure they are at similar levels to the U.S., so no I don't think this list is very helpful.

We went to a do not travel country for an emergency, and everyone was wearing surgical masks or K95 masks, and it was probably safer than being in the U.S. for Covid. Now, I don't think we were safer security wise because there is a big military presence and riots at the time, but Covid wise yes. Not saying the U.S. is particularly safe. But yeah you could still get stuck there is you tested positive for Covid.

[wise_rita]

Mar 23, 2022 14:44:27 GMT -5 waverly said:

Is this for personal or business travel?

It's not for any travel.  In fact I live abroad in one of the unnecessarily Level 4 countries. 

I'm just trying to figure out if I'm missing something or if the USA is just being deliberately obtuse.  It appears to be the ladder.

[basilosaurus]

I agree with the covid specific pages for each country being a much better indicator. I *think* that the metric for the covid rating is solely based on new reported cases/100k. There's a qualitative prevention/mitigation component that personally matters to my risk tolerance. I'd prefer a country with high mask usage than not. With high vaccination rates than not. Even if numbers are comparable. Maybe some of that is theater, but that matters to my anxiety.

And, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with covid than go where there's active war. I can get all my shots and wear a mask to affect my personal risk, but I can't do anything about bombs raining down. I cannot believe UK and Ukraine get the same rating.

[laurack]

I have also found this confusing. Most of the places that are level 4 do not visit due to Covid have lower levels than the usa as well, and places with half the level of usa in terms of daily cases per 100k being a level 4 just like a dangerous place to visit because of active war or high chance of kidnapping / armed robbery / murder etc. makes very little sense. I think maybe they need to change up the rating system a bit as they risk people just ignoring it completely because of this.

[wanderingback]

I guess I disagree with the list being not helpful just because the US also has a high level of cases. I also do think it’s difficult to categorize a whole country but I guess that’s the best they can do and aren’t in the job of breaking things down further within countries.

Just because many people have thrown their hands up and say I’m going to travel to a place that has covid cases increasing because the US also has a lot of covid doesn’t mean the metric is useless. I think it just goes to show how many people have resumed with a lot of normal activity.

I also think that traveling is very different than where one lives. I know how to navigate when cases are high in my city…I know where to test, I know that people mask, I know how to get to a doctor if I need it, I’m not out socializing, etc. All that is not necessarily true when traveling abroad, so yeah I do think it’s something to take in to consideration.

Not judging people at all who are traveling but we are still in a pandemic and recommending not to travel somewhere that has more than X cases per X population seems like a decent metric. It’s not the state departments fault that people are ignoring that information.

[basilosaurus]

Mar 27, 2022 11:30:08 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

I guess I disagree with the list being not helpful just because the US also has a high level of cases. I also do think it’s difficult to categorize a whole country but I guess that’s the best they can do and aren’t in the job of breaking things down further within countries.

Just because many people have thrown their hands up and say I’m going to travel to a place that has covid cases increasing because the US also has a lot of covid doesn’t mean the metric is useless. I think it just goes to show how many people have resumed with a lot of normal activity.

I also think that traveling is very different than where one lives. I know how to navigate when cases are high in my city…I know where to test, I know that people mask, I know how to get to a doctor if I need it, I’m not out socializing, etc. All that is not necessarily true when traveling abroad, so yeah I do think it’s something to take in to consideration.

Not judging people at all who are traveling but we are still in a pandemic and recommending not to travel somewhere that has more than X cases per X population seems like a decent metric. It’s not the state departments fault that people are ignoring that information.

I don't think people are throwing their hands up. It's more that this metric isn't particularly helpful. OP is living in a country that's highest category. USA doesn't get categorized. I was in a highest category country with literally 5 cases over 6 months in my region. It's reasonable to question this blanket standard. And it's reasonable to question why they categorize this as a danger over things like terrorism. Over physical threats. 

I don't think anyone is saying to not take it into consideration. I think it's more that trying to put it into context. UK isn't more dangerous for travel than Ukraine, and the numbers should show that.

[wanderingback]

Mar 27, 2022 18:36:42 GMT -5 basilosaurus said:

Mar 27, 2022 11:30:08 GMT -5 wanderingback said:

I guess I disagree with the list being not helpful just because the US also has a high level of cases. I also do think it’s difficult to categorize a whole country but I guess that’s the best they can do and aren’t in the job of breaking things down further within countries.

Just because many people have thrown their hands up and say I’m going to travel to a place that has covid cases increasing because the US also has a lot of covid doesn’t mean the metric is useless. I think it just goes to show how many people have resumed with a lot of normal activity.

I also think that traveling is very different than where one lives. I know how to navigate when cases are high in my city…I know where to test, I know that people mask, I know how to get to a doctor if I need it, I’m not out socializing, etc. All that is not necessarily true when traveling abroad, so yeah I do think it’s something to take in to consideration.

Not judging people at all who are traveling but we are still in a pandemic and recommending not to travel somewhere that has more than X cases per X population seems like a decent metric. It’s not the state departments fault that people are ignoring that information.

I don't think people are throwing their hands up. It's more that this metric isn't particularly helpful. OP is living in a country that's highest category. USA doesn't get categorized. I was in a highest category country with literally 5 cases over 6 months in my region. It's reasonable to question this blanket standard. And it's reasonable to question why they categorize this as a danger over things like terrorism. Over physical threats. 

I don't think anyone is saying to not take it into consideration. I think it's more that trying to put it into context. UK isn't more dangerous for travel than Ukraine, and the numbers should show that.

But if you click on each country, it gives the reason for level 4 do not travel. For some it does say terrorism and for others it says due to covid, for others it’s for both.

It’s always been like that, it’s not a blanket standard at all…you have to click on each specific country to read why it’s a do not travel country. Some even give more specific covid reasons like the country has a lot of covid rules that are making entry hard so don’t travel there. So it’s not like they’re all blanket do not travel for the same reason. I think it is appropriate to include do not travel because of covid if a country is above a certain threshold as well.

[basilosaurus]

I'm saying that the reality of covid rules is bullshit. I've experienced it. I was in a country with federal laws about masking and qr checking in, and mostly people followed it; employees were stationed at doors to make sure you checked in. I went to another that claimed to have the same rules, but less than 20% mask based on my unofficial counting (I really tried to count, multiple times), no checkin anywhere, no federal program.

So a country can say "masks required, distancing enforced" when the reality is very different. CDC/state dept are based on what the countries state, not what is the reality on the ground.

I unfortunately had a hospital experience recently, and my translator told me he'd never gotten a vaccine or covid test. At a private "safe" hospital. I was in a hospital elevator that had marks for 3 people, and there were 8 of us.

And if you want to talk about terrorism, that's also a bullshit standard. There are many countries where certain islands or borders are problematic when the rest of the country is very safe. I've had to navigate this more than most since these things determine sign off level for military leave. I think you know this.

The issue with the OP is that these nuances are given the same number by CDC/State. Then she has to really delve deep into the data to understand, and that then makes it irrelevant as a warning.

Right now, do not travel because covid is worthless.

[wanderingback]

Mar 27, 2022 23:55:54 GMT -5 basilosaurus said:

I'm saying that the reality of covid rules is bullshit. I've experienced it. I was in a country with federal laws about masking and qr checking in, and mostly people followed it; employees were stationed at doors to make sure you checked in. I went to another that claimed to have the same rules, but less than 20% mask based on my unofficial counting (I really tried to count, multiple times), no checkin anywhere, no federal program.

So a country can say "masks required, distancing enforced" when the reality is very different. CDC/state dept are based on what the countries state, not what is the reality on the ground.

I unfortunately had a hospital experience recently, and my translator told me he'd never gotten a vaccine or covid test. At a private "safe" hospital. I was in a hospital elevator that had marks for 3 people, and there were 8 of us.

And if you want to talk about terrorism, that's also a bullshit standard. There are many countries where certain islands or borders are problematic when the rest of the country is very safe. I've had to navigate this more than most since these things determine sign off level for military leave. I think you know this.

The issue with the OP is that these nuances are given the same number by CDC/State. Then she has to really delve deep into the data to understand, and that then makes it irrelevant as a warning.

Right now, do not travel because covid is worthless.

Not sure what you’re talking about. The travel warnings aren’t about whether or not a country says masks or distancing are required. It only talks about the number of cases, which that objective number is totally reasonable to use as a metric, and whether they have rules like you have to quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival, thus making it a potentially difficult place to travel to. From what I’ve seen countries are absolutely enforcing rules for foreign visitors such as mandatory quarantines. It is absolutely important to know this information before you travel to a foreign country. Gone are the days where you could just have your passport and pick a random country to travel to on a whim (I assume the state department will continue to update this information as countries drop more of these restrictions).

[wise_rita]

It looks like the State Department is coming to their senses a bit better:

We reassessed how COVID-19 factors into our travel advisory levels. Starting next week, many countries' levels will be lowered from a level 4 (do not travel).

Finally, a world where the UK and Ukraine won't have identical travel advisory levels!