Post by Velar Fricative on Jun 22, 2022 5:40:45 GMT -5
Tinfoil hat theory time - I don’t think even these extremists want to secede. I think they and others like them that control other states want blue states to make the first move by making things miserable from an interstate perspective (abortion access, gun control, etc.) and then soon enough at the national level when these extremists implement bans on a national level thanks for a friendly SCOTUS. It would be blue states that actually propose secession, if any state actually does. And red states can point fingers and say “we are the ones trying to preserve the union and not these unAmerican libs!!!”
Yes, technically it’s illegal to secede but we all know how SCOTUS feels about precedent these days and I think there is so much polarization that the other side might be like “okay, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.” Yes, we’ve always been a polarized country, but economics have changed, as has the media we consume.
Do I want any of this to happen? No. Do I think 2024 will be absolutely terrible for this country? Yes.
Post by TamiTaylor on Jun 22, 2022 15:56:37 GMT -5
Native Texan here whose family roots in Texas go back many multiple generations. Here are some of my rambling thoughts: 1. Texas is gerrymandered as possibly as it can be. It is so screwed up. 2. I think the fear mongering of “don’t California my Texas” has really pushed people in charge and voters into some really extreme viewpoints, laws, etc. I feel like Abbott has gotten more extreme since Trump lost in 2020. It was a really ramped up extreme trajectory for policy. 3. I don’t believe a lot of the move ins into Texas from California, Oregon, etc are blue votes. I think these are red extremists that are leaving their home states for Texas that they view has some freedom promised land or some shit 4. Austin is not a liberal as you think. You have like an island of blue in Austin but take a glance out the those surrounding suburbs like Westlake, Pflugerville, etc its red out there. 5. The gerrymandering took place when many of us (under 40) where not able to vote. We are stuck we the consequences of other generations voting. 6. We need stronger messaging by Democrats to reach the center and moderates. 7. Currently, Dems need to focus on gaining a center moderate base and have platforms and messages that do not alienate them 8. Finally I have no freaking idea how Cruz, Patrick, Abbot, and Paxton keep getting re-elected because even most republicans I know hate all of them. Like I can’t name one single person I know who likes Ted Cruz. 5.
Native Texan here whose family roots in Texas go back many multiple generations. Here are some of my rambling thoughts: 1. Texas is gerrymandered as possibly as it can be. It is so screwed up. 2. I think the fear mongering of “don’t California my Texas” has really pushed people in charge and voters into some really extreme viewpoints, laws, etc. I feel like Abbott has gotten more extreme since Trump lost in 2020. It was a really ramped up extreme trajectory for policy. 3. I don’t believe a lot of the move ins into Texas from California, Oregon, etc are blue votes. I think these are red extremists that are leaving their home states for Texas that they view has some freedom promised land or some shit 4. Austin is not a liberal as you think. You have like an island of blue in Austin but take a glance out the those surrounding suburbs like Westlake, Pflugerville, etc its red out there. 5. The gerrymandering took place when many of us (under 40) where not able to vote. We are stuck we the consequences of other generations voting. 6. We need stronger messaging by Democrats to reach the center and moderates. 7. Currently, Dems need to focus on gaining a center moderate base and have platforms and messages that do not alienate them 8. Finally I have no freaking idea how Cruz, Patrick, Abbot, and Paxton keep getting re-elected because even most republicans I know hate all of them. Like I can’t name one single person I know who likes Ted Cruz. 5.
All I can talk about is my demographic and what I see locally here in South Florida. The biggest mistake is that Dems only come out to talk to us when it is too late. You need to put in years of engagement for our votes, and also truly understand how we think. We are not a monolith but the dems have taken us for granted thinking that because we have historically voted for them, we must think the same. We do not. Trump gaining ground on the latino vote, was not surprising to me. The topics that interested us the most, contrary to what the dems or the liberal wing of the party thinks, also didn't surprise me. and it will be a fatal mistake to ignore that. we can talk about "the base" all we want, but these races have been won and lost on the margins. the GOP seems to know that, Dems don't. the following are two links to reports done by people who I think have a really good sense for the latino vote, as Ive been following them for quite a while. They touch on both South Florida, and Texas regarding the shift to Trump/GOP and why. a 2020 post mortem.
ETA: to clarify I’m mostly talk about the Latino vote. And I’m bringing it up, because it was mentioned earlier, and I remembered the research I had read that spoke to both s. Florida and south Texas.
To that point, companies need to leverage their monetary and political power.
I feel like the DoD needs to leverage its power as well. Many younger service members are PISSED about reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights. It wouldn’t be easy to pull our bases out of Texas, but it might be the right thing to do.
To that point, companies need to leverage their monetary and political power.
I feel like the DoD needs to leverage its power as well. Many younger service members are PISSED about reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights. It wouldn’t be easy to pull our bases out of Texas, but it might be the right thing to do.
3. I don’t believe a lot of the move ins into Texas from California, Oregon, etc are blue votes. I think these are red extremists that are leaving their home states for Texas that they view has some freedom promised land or some shit
I'm part of a bourbon group and that's what I'm seeing - people moving to Texas from California who are looking for right wing 'freedom'.
Post by jeaniebueller on Jun 23, 2022 6:23:24 GMT -5
It’s not just taxes. Michigan’s GOP has also lost its mind, and is alienating their standard bearer Republican counterparts. Check out who they nominated for AG.
Deperno is a nutjob. He is a walking ethical complaint, has been sanctioned by numerous judges in the past for filing frivolous complaints and his behavior in court. The party nominated him over Tom Leonard, who is former Michigan State speaker of the house, and even though I would disagree with him on almost everything, he’s actually a serious person and serious candidate. Tom Leonard won’t even endorse him.
And it’s pretty likely that another MAGA science denier, Garrett Saldano, will get the GOP nomination for governor. Part of it is because a bunch of other candidates were disqualified for issues with her petitions, but Saldano is nutty enough that he will attract the stupidest Trump voters.
3. I don’t believe a lot of the move ins into Texas from California, Oregon, etc are blue votes. I think these are red extremists that are leaving their home states for Texas that they view has some freedom promised land or some shit
I'm part of a bourbon group and that's what I'm seeing - people moving to Texas from California who are looking for right wing 'freedom'.
Californian here. I have many former high school classmates former work colleagues who have moved out of state recently because of “politics”. The move to TX and AZ mostly. From what I see, unless it’s for a job, the Californians who are moving are conservative. They generally think liberals are pushing up home and gas prices because of “our agenda” and climate change is also part of our “agenda”. They always reference this mysterious agenda but if you ask them about it it has to do with wanting to control us all 1984 style. Most of them have likely not watched 1984.
IDK, I have an N of 1, but my family moved to the Houston area largely because they wanted to get away from Chicago weather and housing prices. Their beautiful big homes were much lower priced than what they would be an hour outside of Chicago, and with my parents retiring it is also helpful that there is no state income tax. I think most of my sister's friends are liberal transplants and moved there for similar reasons (my BIL's mom also was living there, in this particular example, but I am not sure that would have been enough with all of the other positives).
All that said, I too don't believe that transplants are going to turn Texas purple. They are definitely there, but I do not think they are the majority.
IDK, I have an N of 1, but my family moved to the Houston area largely because they wanted to get away from Chicago weather and housing prices. Their beautiful big homes were much lower priced than what they would be an hour outside of Chicago, and with my parents retiring it is also helpful that there is no state income tax. I think most of my sister's friends are liberal transplants and moved there for similar reasons (my BIL's mom also was living there, in this particular example, but I am not sure that would have been enough with all of the other positives).
All that said, I too don't believe that transplants are going to turn Texas purple. They are definitely there, but I do not think they are the majority.
The thing is about people moving in to Texas for housing prices have really ruined our housing market. Instead of paying Texas prices people are coming in and paying ridiculous amounts of money for houses that aren’t worth it. They are paying California prices still they just think they aren’t because they think they are getting a “deal” on a house. A friend of mine lost out on a house because the other buyer brought 250k in cash to close on a house whose appraisal was only for 300k. That is insanity.
IDK, I have an N of 1, but my family moved to the Houston area largely because they wanted to get away from Chicago weather and housing prices. Their beautiful big homes were much lower priced than what they would be an hour outside of Chicago, and with my parents retiring it is also helpful that there is no state income tax. I think most of my sister's friends are liberal transplants and moved there for similar reasons (my BIL's mom also was living there, in this particular example, but I am not sure that would have been enough with all of the other positives).
All that said, I too don't believe that transplants are going to turn Texas purple. They are definitely there, but I do not think they are the majority.
The thing is about people moving in to Texas for housing prices have really ruined our housing market. Instead of paying Texas prices people are coming in and paying ridiculous amounts of money for houses that aren’t worth it. They are paying California prices still they just think they aren’t because they think they are getting a “deal” on a house. A friend of mine lost out on a house because the other buyer brought 250k in cash to close on a house whose appraisal was only for 300k. That is insanity.
I've watched neighbors move to other states and pull this shit, it's so hard to watch. Then they complain about things like health insurance not being included by their employer (Idaho), having insane property taxes (Texas), and their POC family being harassed when they visit (Tennessee). Ex-Californians have ruined housing markets for so many other states.
It wasn't the "moderates" that pulled out a win for Biden.
This is firmly where I believe Democrats are doing it wrong. People say "the parties are the same." That is objectively not true, but they are BOTH conservative. I want someone out there campaigning on real change, health care, trans rights, gun control, police reform, higher min wage tied to inflation, abortion coverage (I know that we are not in a good place for this, but this is my dream list). I want an unapologetically liberal party, not this well we want you to just barely not die party.
The thing is about people moving in to Texas for housing prices have really ruined our housing market. Instead of paying Texas prices people are coming in and paying ridiculous amounts of money for houses that aren’t worth it. They are paying California prices still they just think they aren’t because they think they are getting a “deal” on a house. A friend of mine lost out on a house because the other buyer brought 250k in cash to close on a house whose appraisal was only for 300k. That is insanity.
I've watched neighbors move to other states and pull this shit, it's so hard to watch. Then they complain about things like health insurance not being included by their employer (Idaho), having insane property taxes (Texas), and their POC family being harassed when they visit (Tennessee). Ex-Californians have ruined housing markets for so many other states.
I mean, you can blame “Californians” (I’m putting the word in quotes because I think it’s often used as shorthand — there are other coastal states with similarly-crazy home prices that people are fleeing) for ruining everything, but none of this is happening in a vacuum. Employers are allowing remote work en masse, which is reshaping housing markets across the country. Tech companies have their tentacles everywhere, from Austin to Nashville to Boulder, and they pay crazy-high salaries. Baby Boomers are looking for cheaper retirement communities as they enter their 60s and 70s, and record-low interest rates coupled with record-high stock prices made cash cheap and easy to come by. Well, until now, at least.
I've watched neighbors move to other states and pull this shit, it's so hard to watch. Then they complain about things like health insurance not being included by their employer (Idaho), having insane property taxes (Texas), and their POC family being harassed when they visit (Tennessee). Ex-Californians have ruined housing markets for so many other states.
I mean, you can blame “Californians” (I’m putting the word in quotes because I think it’s often used as shorthand — there are other coastal states with similarly-crazy home prices that people are fleeing) for ruining everything, but none of this is happening in a vacuum. Employers are allowing remote work en masse, which is reshaping housing markets across the country. Tech companies have their tentacles everywhere, from Austin to Nashville to Boulder, and they pay crazy-high salaries. Baby Boomers are looking for cheaper retirement communities as they enter their 60s and 70s, and record-low interest rates coupled with record-high stock prices have made cash cheap and easy to come by.
You're right - I'm seeing more of my neighbors leaving the state to flee "political persecution" and "high housing prices" but I know it's also happening further up the coast and on the opposite side as well. Most of my neighbors leaving, however, don't really meet most of those cases. Quite a few moved without jobs lined up, they bought their homes in ID, KS, TN, TX, and AZ in cash from their CA sales and said they'd figure out the rest when they get there. One moved and then tried to backdate a workers comp case against their city PD so they didn't have to find a new job in their new state...