Send good vibes to Kansas tomorrow

[hermione]

Aug 3, 2022 7:01:27 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

This is really amazing. They had the highest voter turnout since 2008 and some people only turned up to vote on this issue (not for any candidates in the primary.)

In June, the dog caught the car and hopefully this is a sign the GOP is going to see some big losses. The vast majority of Americans want abortion rights.

I am concerned about this. People will vote on the issue itself but will that translate into voting against candidates who support it?

[Velar Fricative]

Aug 3, 2022 8:20:24 GMT -5 hermione said:

Aug 3, 2022 7:01:27 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

This is really amazing. They had the highest voter turnout since 2008 and some people only turned up to vote on this issue (not for any candidates in the primary.)

In June, the dog caught the car and hopefully this is a sign the GOP is going to see some big losses. The vast majority of Americans want abortion rights.

I am concerned about this. People will vote on the issue itself but will that translate into voting against candidates who support it?

If this is not the case for anyone who knows for sure, please correct me, but a few tweets I saw noted that Kansas has closed primaries. According to the tweets, those who are not registered with a party would have only seen the referendum question on their ballot, so it wasn't that they just ignored everything else on the ballot.

[underwaterrhymes]

Aug 3, 2022 8:20:24 GMT -5 hermione said:

Aug 3, 2022 7:01:27 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

This is really amazing. They had the highest voter turnout since 2008 and some people only turned up to vote on this issue (not for any candidates in the primary.)

In June, the dog caught the car and hopefully this is a sign the GOP is going to see some big losses. The vast majority of Americans want abortion rights.

I am concerned about this. People will vote on the issue itself but will that translate into voting against candidates who support it?

I think we generally have a problem with poor voter turnout for a variety of reasons. We make it hard for people to vote and things like gerrymandering and removing voters from the voting pool has made it even harder. That people showed up in droves for this issue is a GOOD thing, but that doesn’t mean we don’t need to get out the vote for candidates too.

[msmerymac]

Aug 3, 2022 5:56:22 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

The Skimm said an estimated 500,000 people voted. What is the population of Kansas, surely each of the cities has more people than that?!

That number just struck me as really small, and I'm from one of the least populated states.

Wichita has 400,000 people. Kansas has about 3 million, total.

[lust2hart]

Aug 3, 2022 8:27:35 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Aug 3, 2022 8:20:24 GMT -5 hermione said:

I am concerned about this. People will vote on the issue itself but will that translate into voting against candidates who support it?

If this is not the case for anyone who knows for sure, please correct me, but a few tweets I saw noted that Kansas has closed primaries. According to the tweets, those who are not registered with a party would have only seen the referendum question on their ballot, so it wasn't that they just ignored everything else on the ballot.

It's true that unaffiliated voters got a ballot that only had the amendment on it. However, they were asked if they wanted to affiliate with a party so that they could vote in that party's primary. So you could argue that they ignored everything else by choosing to not affiliate. However however (LOL), a huge majority of unaffiliated voters had no idea that they could affiliate that day and so a lot of them were like, "Well, I have no idea who's on the ballot for anything else so there's no point in me affiliating." So who knows - maybe some of them will choose to register now, after this election.

[Velar Fricative]

Aug 3, 2022 5:56:22 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

The Skimm said an estimated 500,000 people voted. What is the population of Kansas, surely each of the cities has more people than that?!

That number just struck me as really small, and I'm from one of the least populated states.

There aren't a whole lot of cities around the country with that many people even if it seems like that to anyone who grew up in a smaller town/state. 37, to be exact as of 2021: 

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

And most of those cities are in the higher-population states. 

Coincidentally, Kansas City is #37, but that's the Kansas City that's in Missouri (the one in Kansas is much smaller). 

[pugz]

It is a weird state y'all. In 2018 we elected a democrat as a state rep (Sharice Davids, her district got gerrymandered for this coming election so her re-election is not guaranteed now) and a democrat as a governor. We've had D governors several times in the past. But the extreme right wing GOP folks have a super majority in our state house, so having a D governor is only somewhat protective since they can still override her. Her re-election is definitely at risk since she took COVID so seriously and the GOP here hates her for it whereas before she had a lot of Rs and moderates help elect her.


Anyone that was unaffiliated yesterday only had the amendment on their ballot as well as any non-partisan races like city council. They could choose to affiliate at the polls but most don't. Probably 1/4 of the friends I reached out to about voting are unaffiliated and I reached out early to make sure they knew that unlike most primaries, there would be stuff on a ballot for them because of the amendment.

How the voter increase changes things in November...we're gonna find out soon. What I observed in local groups was that there were a LOT of women that have not voted in the past (registration was up) or had not voted in primaries. I hope they are paying attention now. FB groups were formed to help the effort so I'm hoping we can now harness those groups for other elections.

Last thought for today: I'm really curious to see the final break down by state and by party. I knew our county (Johnson County, a KC suburb) would go blue like it did in 2020. Wyandotte County, also a KC suburb and part of Sharice David's district (well, was) also went blue. My hometown of Lawrence is always blue. I was really unsure about what would happen in Topeka and Wichita. Wichita is the largest city in the state and trends more red historically. I knew all those metros/counties needed to really show up for it to pass and they did. That needs to be repeated in November. In my county there are a lot of red pockets and we are trying to flip at least one seat in the KS house/senate. We weren't able to in 2020. It's an uphill battle especially due to gerrymandering.

[pugz]

also if any Kansans are interested in doing more to ensure your friends vote, message me and I can connect you with some ideas!

[pugz]

Also I think the "value them both" folks absolutely would have succeeded if Roe V Wade hadn't been overturned. I had zero hope like 3 months ago. There were groups fighting back before that but as soon as Roe was overturned the attention to and energy around the amendment changed overnight.

[Velar Fricative]

Aug 3, 2022 10:13:09 GMT -5 pugz said:

Also I think the "value them both" folks absolutely would have succeeded if Roe V Wade hadn't been overturned. I had zero hope like 3 months ago. There were groups fighting back before that but as soon as Roe was overturned the attention to and energy around the amendment changed overnight.

Yeah, I was reading that abortion-rights opponents added this vote on the amendment to the August primary because Republicans always turn out in full force for primaries and weren't planning to advertise it very much because they could depend on that turnout. Then SCOTUS changed everything. I'll keep this in my political "fuck around and find out" files forever. 

[NewOrleans]

So will they just try again like every year?

[pugz]

Aug 3, 2022 10:16:23 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Aug 3, 2022 10:13:09 GMT -5 pugz said:

Also I think the "value them both" folks absolutely would have succeeded if Roe V Wade hadn't been overturned. I had zero hope like 3 months ago. There were groups fighting back before that but as soon as Roe was overturned the attention to and energy around the amendment changed overnight.

Yeah, I was reading that abortion-rights opponents added this vote on the amendment to the August primary because Republicans always turn out in full force for primaries and weren't planning to advertise it very much because they could depend on that turnout. Then SCOTUS changed everything. I'll keep this in my political "fuck around and find out" files forever. 

yes it was infuriating, and did you read the wording of the amendment? It was intentionally worded to confuse people! 

Our church had a big event last week where they discussed the amendment and they had someone do a breakdown of the wording to make sure people actually understood what it DID say and what it DIDN'T. 

The "Value them Both" campaign spread lots of disinformation as well, including those texts the day before the election. They have to cheat to win. It didn't work this time but they will keep trying. 

[pugz]

Aug 3, 2022 10:21:27 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

So will they just try again like every year?

this was a constitutional amendment. Our state constitution guarantees Kansans a right to an abortion and this vote affirmed our current constitution. A judge upheld the constitution after they tried to pass a law banning it. So they can keep trying to pass laws but they will continue to be found unconstitutional. 

I don't think they'll try to change the constitution again any time soon. A lot of money was wasted on their end

[NewOrleans]

Aug 3, 2022 10:24:10 GMT -5 pugz said:

Aug 3, 2022 10:21:27 GMT -5 NewOrleans said:

So will they just try again like every year?

I don't think they'll try to change the constitution again any time soon. A lot of money was wasted on their end

This is what I meant.  So good.  

[pugz]

This shows you how much of the state is still conservative AF. So electing democrats for senate and even governor is really challenging. And all the orange on the east side is where they are gerrymandering, to break up that big block of counties and flip Davids seat red again. 

[lust2hart]

Aug 2, 2022 22:01:49 GMT -5 zaneyzoo said:

Now we just need Kris Kobach to go back under his rock.

Quoting you again to post here that he won the R primary for Attorney General yesterday. If anyone feels like donating to keep him out of office - his D opponent is Chris Mann. 

[zaneyzoo]

Aug 3, 2022 10:33:41 GMT -5 lust2hart said:

Aug 2, 2022 22:01:49 GMT -5 zaneyzoo said:

Now we just need Kris Kobach to go back under his rock.

Quoting you again to post here that he won the R primary for Attorney General yesterday. If anyone feels like donating to keep him out of office - his D opponent is Chris Mann. 

I know - at least it was relatively close - but good lord, he needs to go away.

[Velar Fricative]

Aug 3, 2022 10:31:09 GMT -5 pugz said:

View Attachment

This shows you how much of the state is still conservative AF. So electing democrats for senate and even governor is really challenging. And all the orange on the east side is where they are gerrymandering, to break up that big block of counties and flip Davids seat red again. 

Yeah but isn't western Kansas basically empty compared to the eastern part of the state? 

Granted, if they're gerrymandering the bluer parts, that does/will have impacts with the U.S. House and (I assume) your state legislature. But POTUS, Governor, U.S. Senate, and other races plus ballot questions/referenda that are won by statewide popular vote should be more in play if you continue to boost turnout.

[pugz]

Aug 3, 2022 10:33:41 GMT -5 lust2hart said:

Aug 2, 2022 22:01:49 GMT -5 zaneyzoo said:

Now we just need Kris Kobach to go back under his rock.

Quoting you again to post here that he won the R primary for Attorney General yesterday. If anyone feels like donating to keep him out of office - his D opponent is Chris Mann. 

Some say Kobach is easier to beat than Warren. I hope so....

[zaneyzoo]

Aug 3, 2022 10:31:09 GMT -5 pugz said:

View Attachment

This shows you how much of the state is still conservative AF. So electing democrats for senate and even governor is really challenging. And all the orange on the east side is where they are gerrymandering, to break up that big block of counties and flip Davids seat red again. 

My county was 70% yes and 30% no - not surprised at all.  So grateful the heavily populated areas went No

[zaneyzoo]

Aug 3, 2022 10:57:51 GMT -5 pugz said:

Aug 3, 2022 10:33:41 GMT -5 lust2hart said:

Quoting you again to post here that he won the R primary for Attorney General yesterday. If anyone feels like donating to keep him out of office - his D opponent is Chris Mann. 

Some say Kobach is easier to beat than Warren. I hope so....

H was telling me that the Dems were hoping he would win the primary so he'd be easier to beat in the general.  

His interview last night was nausea inducing.  

[wise_rita]

Aug 3, 2022 9:03:38 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Aug 3, 2022 5:56:22 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

The Skimm said an estimated 500,000 people voted. What is the population of Kansas, surely each of the cities has more people than that?!

That number just struck me as really small, and I'm from one of the least populated states.

Wichita has 400,000 people. Kansas has about 3 million, total.

Wow! 500-800,000 is a really huge turnout then!

[msmerymac]

Aug 3, 2022 11:33:20 GMT -5 zaneyzoo said:

Aug 3, 2022 10:57:51 GMT -5 pugz said:

Some say Kobach is easier to beat than Warren. I hope so....

H was telling me that the Dems were hoping he would win the primary so he'd be easier to beat in the general.  

His interview last night was nausea inducing.  

The Daily did an episode today about how Dems often support extreme GOP candidates in the primary in order to potentially turn off moderates in the general. Claire McCaskill started it with Mr. Legitimate Rape Akin. Josh Shapiro did it in PA this year with Doug Mastriano. 

[ECB]

Aug 3, 2022 12:02:41 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Aug 3, 2022 11:33:20 GMT -5 zaneyzoo said:

H was telling me that the Dems were hoping he would win the primary so he'd be easier to beat in the general.  

His interview last night was nausea inducing.  

The Daily did an episode today about how Dems often support extreme GOP candidates in the primary in order to potentially turn off moderates in the general. Claire McCaskill started it with Mr. Legitimate Rape Akin. Josh Shapiro did it in PA this year with Doug Mastriano. 

That just happened in the Governors race in Md.  The democrats poured over a $1 million into Dan Cox's (Trump backed R) campaign - and he won.  He's very extreme and has much less of a chance of winning against the democratic nominee.  There was a woman, Kelly Shultz, I think - that was moderate enough that the democrats feared if she won the primary, she'd have a shot at winning the general.  While we presently have a R governor, from what I saw about Schultz, she's less moderate than Hogan and there was real concern if she won, what direction she'd take the state in. 

[Patsy Baloney]

Illinois is participating in the dance with the devil as well, with Ds spending money to elevate antisemitic gun fetishist Darren Bailey as the GOP candidate for Governor. I hate it so much.

Just because it’s seen as an “easy win” doesn’t mean it will be and allows this hateful fiction a larger reach and higher platform.

[estrellita]

Aug 3, 2022 14:58:35 GMT -5 Patsy Baloney said:

Illinois is participating in the dance with the devil as well, with Ds spending money to elevate antisemitic gun fetishist Darren Bailey as the GOP candidate for Governor. I hate it so much.

Just because it’s seen as an “easy win” doesn’t mean it will be and allows this hateful fiction a larger reach and higher platform.

Everyone thought 45 wouldn't be the nominee. Then thought he wouldn't win. I never assume anything anymore!

[Patsy Baloney]

Aug 3, 2022 15:11:52 GMT -5 estrellita said:

Aug 3, 2022 14:58:35 GMT -5 Patsy Baloney said:

Illinois is participating in the dance with the devil as well, with Ds spending money to elevate antisemitic gun fetishist Darren Bailey as the GOP candidate for Governor. I hate it so much.

Just because it’s seen as an “easy win” doesn’t mean it will be and allows this hateful fiction a larger reach and higher platform.

Everyone thought 45 wouldn't be the nominee. Then thought he wouldn't win. I never assume anything anymore!

I know and that’s why all the armpits in my shirts are ruined. So nervous. So sweaty 🤣