Mass protests are failing at record rates

[Velar Fricative]

Mass protests, once a threat to autocrats, have plummeted in effectiveness, a study shows. (gift link)

This is really sobering. It hits on a lot of important facets of this, including the role of social media, polarization, and increasing nationalism.

[Velar Fricative]

As I was thinking "well then wtf do we do???" I got to the end and it's not good.

While it is hardly the case that mass protests now necessarily fail in today’s world, their plummeting odds of success may have ripple effects beyond even the decline of democracy.



For one thing, armed rebellion, long disavowed by democracy activists as counterproductive, has seen its effectiveness decline more slowly than that of nonviolent protest, the Harvard data shows, making the two methods now nearly tied in their odds of succeeding.



“For the first time since the 1940s, a decade dominated by state-backed partisan rebellions against Nazi occupations,” Dr. Chenoweth has written, “nonviolent resistance does not have a statistically significant advantage over armed insurrection.”

[rikki]

On a more local (US) point of view, I recently didn’t go to a local protest (gun laws)because I was nervous some whack job would show up and start shooting. I wonder if other Americans share that sentiment. I felt guilty because the issue is important to me, but ultimately I was too anxious to attend.

[susiebw]

Sept 30, 2022 8:48:26 GMT -5 rikki said:

On a more local (US) point of view, I recently didn’t go to a local protest (gun laws)because I was nervous some whack job would show up and start shooting. I wonder if other Americans share that sentiment. I felt guilty because the issue is important to me, but ultimately I was too anxious to attend.

In terms of a gun law gathering, I absolutely think you're right.  I would be terrified to attend something like that. 

Less so for other sorts of protests, except maybe abortion, where the anti-abortionists see it as murder, and so in their way of thinking, an eye for an eye or whatever. 

But health care or environmental justice or climate change, I would feel as safe as I would in any other crowded place.  And I definitely feel less safe in any crowded place than I did even 10 years ago.