Hurricane risk shifting - see by zip code

[pixy0stix]

WaPo gift link - wapo.st/3Zrzhia

A Washington Post analysis of the group’s data found that nearly 30 million Americans in about 235 counties across 18 states in the contiguous United States, from Texas to New England, will face new threats from hurricane-force winds. A third of Americans could experience damaging gales by 2053, in places as far inland as Tennessee and Arkansas.

[mrsd2006]

Interesting. I am originally from the GA coast, and have property there and will likely spend time there in retirement. The annual chance of tropical force winds actually decreases by one percentage point in 2053 (from 51% to 50%)

[sb]

Feb 27, 2023 11:11:25 GMT -5 mrsd2006 said:

Interesting. I am originally from the GA coast, and have property there and will likely spend time there in retirement. The annual chance of tropical force winds actually decreases by one percentage point in 2053 (from 51% to 50%)

I saw that too.  We are in Louisiana and in my current zip (about 60 miles inland) the risk drops a few percentage points.  There's also a slight drop for hurricanes.  Same for our previous zip code in NOLA.  I guess if storms start tracking more northward then some of our typically high activity spots may see less activity.  But it sounds like what we do see will be higher impact/higher winds.

[Pilsy]

I'm just outside Boston and a little surprised to see virtually no change predicted.

[abs]

Hm interesting. Thanks for sharing. I really thought our fish would go up and not down. Of course even going down it’s still a high risk area.

[mrsd2006]

Feb 27, 2023 11:25:20 GMT -5 sb said:

Feb 27, 2023 11:11:25 GMT -5 mrsd2006 said:

Interesting. I am originally from the GA coast, and have property there and will likely spend time there in retirement. The annual chance of tropical force winds actually decreases by one percentage point in 2053 (from 51% to 50%)

I saw that too.  We are in Louisiana and in my current zip (about 60 miles inland) the risk drops a few percentage points.  There's also a slight drop for hurricanes.  Same for our previous zip code in NOLA.  I guess if storms start tracking more northward then some of our typically high activity spots may see less activity.  But it sounds like what we do see will be higher impact/higher winds.

We have a second home in the N GA mountains, and the percentage for annual tropical force winds increases by .21 points. And that is 350 miles from the coast. 

[litebright]

Oh lovely. So my parents have two coastal FL properties on a barrier island (within a few miles of each other) and the article specifically calls out their county (Brevard) as likely to see more activity as storms track more north and less toward the southern end of the state.

It's already a very high-risk area for experiencing at least tropical-storm-force winds, but I did not realize just how much category 3/4/5 activity had increased. That story says that in the 80s, about 10% of storms were 3/4/5s and now it's 40% of storms. My grandparents bought one of the properties in the 80s and I don't think they had a direct hit from a hurricane in the decades that they owned the property. When they died and my parents bought their condo, IIRC they had two storms hit in the first year that they owned it -- I think that would've been around 2002/2003 timeframe? And it's a long and messy story, but they bought a SFH a few miles down the road a few years ago as well.

And my parents wonder why I am utterly ambivalent when my mom starts talking about how someday my siblings and I will inherit their properties. I'm not convinced that the properties will be livable for the course of my lifetime without extremely expensive modifications and upkeep (they already have the highest-rated hurricane protections, etc.), and maybe even WITH them. DH and I are the only ones among my siblings who could begin to afford the insurance and upkeep on a second home, neither of us want to live or have a vacation home in FL, and I have zero desire to deal with any of the issues of owning an ocean-front property, much less two of them. So that will be fun to deal with when the time comes.