Russia

[imimahoney]

Anyone know what's going on? Is it the start of a military coup?

Trying to follow updates on twitter but getting confused...

Wagner and it's leader, Russia's mercenary wing, appears to be rebelling?

[Michelle]

I'm looking for reputable reports.

Of course TT videos are all over the place indicate it is just a March. Others indicate it is a military coup.

Allegedly the Russian military fired on a Wagner training camp. So the leader of the Wagner group called for an armed rebellion.

Other reports indicate Wagner's group is just doing a protest march and Ukraine is using the footage to allege a coup as part of its propaganda.

There are public declarations from the head of the Russian Ministry Defense and the head of Wagner group against each other. And then there are some videos indicating that the videos of the Wagner group are deep fakes.

Certainly with AI capabilities these days, these things require a lot of vetting before drawing any solid conclusions.

[Michelle]

www.reuters.com/world/europe/moscow-try-wagner-head-mutiny-ukraine-prepares-main-thrust-counteroffensive-2023-06-23/


Prigozhin, a one-time Putin ally, in recent months has carried out an increasingly bitter feud with Moscow. Earlier on Friday, he appeared to cross a new line, saying the Kremlin's rationale for invading Ukraine, which it calls a "special military operation," was based on lies by the army's top brass.

For months, he has openly accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, of rank incompetence.


"The minister of defence has ordered 2,000 bodies that are being stored to be hidden so as not to show the losses."



He added: "Those who destroyed our lads, who destroyed the lives of many tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask that no one offer resistance ...



"There are 25,000 of us and we are going to figure out why chaos is happening in the country."



Prigozhin said his actions were "not a military coup", but added: "Most of the military support us fervently."


Russia said it would prosecute mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin for armed mutiny after he accused military leaders of killing 2,000 of his fighters, raising the stakes in a growing confrontation with top officials.



As a long-running standoff between him and the Defence Ministry appeared to come to a head late on Friday, the ministry issued a statement denying Prigozhin's accusations and denouncing them as "informational provocation."

[imimahoney]

Oh man, I hops this is real.

[lilac05]

Michelle, I like following @mosheh on Instagram for reliable news. He’s generally unbiased and gives all sides of things (but leans left), and is good about citing sources and not projecting things and presenting them as facts. He’s using Reuters and WSJ in his first slides about it. I appreciate how he breaks things down because there’s so much I don’t know/understand.

[Velar Fricative]

Prigozhin is terrible too but I guess in this situation the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

[rubytue]

Post take gift wapo.st/3JwqC8u

[lilac05]

Jun 23, 2023 18:48:58 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Prigozhin is terrible too but I guess in this situation the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

Yeah, it’s definitely not as simple as “Hooray! Someone might take Putin down!” This guy is all kinds of horrid himself.

[imimahoney]

Looks like it is real

[livinitup]

The BBC is reporting it (Friday 6/23 around 10:30 pm) And other sources have reported that Moscow is in lockdown.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256.amp

[AAM2012]

Jun 23, 2023 18:05:04 GMT -5 imimahoney said:

Oh man, I hops this is real.

Ditto

Grabbing my popcorn…..


…please continue!

[lilac05]

Ugh…I’ve wanted Putin out of power for a long time, but I’m not sure this is a good thing.

If what I’m reading is correct, this guy was the only one who was successful in accomplishing things in Ukraine. And now he has turned on his own leader. He’s apparently behind some of the troll farm/misinformation campaigns on social media. He’s wanted by FBI. He’s not a good guy getting his good people to rally around him and take out evil Putin. This is kind of like “Which is better, Trump or DeSantis?” But worse.

[wise_rita]

Conspiracy theory (yeah yeah but I still think it's worth mentioning) Putin is in on it as a way to back out of Ukraine while saving face.

[imimahoney]

Jun 24, 2023 6:28:57 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

Conspiracy theory (yeah yeah but I still think it's worth mentioning) Putin is in on it as a way to back out of Ukraine while saving face.

With how Wagner is just rolling in with little to no resistance, I agree that there is something up.

And Putin being completely absent yesterday except for that address was weird.

[4speedy]

Jun 23, 2023 18:48:58 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Prigozhin is terrible too but I guess in this situation the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

Well maybe from the standpoint of Ukraine, this is good for them.  But it’s still a case of 2 narcissists engaging perhaps in a civil war inside a country that has WMD/nuclear capabilities.  In this case, the enemy of our enemy is not our friend but rather just another enemy.

[imimahoney]

The longer this goes on, the longer Russia is destabilized. That's probably the only good thing about this. Hopefully Ukraine can use whatever chaos is going on to their advantage.

[aurora]

Jun 24, 2023 7:41:14 GMT -5 4speedy said:

Jun 23, 2023 18:48:58 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Prigozhin is terrible too but I guess in this situation the enemy of my enemy is my friend?

Well maybe from the standpoint of Ukraine, this is good for them.  But it’s still a case of 2 narcissists engaging perhaps in a civil war inside a country that has WMD/nuclear capabilities.  In this case, the enemy of our enemy is not our friend but rather just another enemy.

Yeah, it's definitely still a bad situation, but I think I would rather Putin be engaged at home than in Ukraine. Ultimately it's likely his own people who could bring him down. I don't think he's more likely to use WMD internally than externally.

Obviously not rooting for Prigozhin, either, as he also sounds like a terrible person.

[spinnaker5]

Jun 24, 2023 7:41:14 GMT -5 4speedy said:

Jun 23, 2023 18:48:58 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Well maybe from the standpoint of Ukraine, this is good for them.  But it’s still a case of 2 narcissists engaging perhaps in a civil war inside a country that has WMD/nuclear capabilities.  In this case, the enemy of our enemy is not our friend but rather just another enemy.

This. From The Atlantic:

“Of more concern is the possibility that Prigozhin’s gambit all along was the leading edge of an effort by hard-right Russian nationalists to push Putin to be even more violent in Ukraine and more confrontational with the West, and perhaps even to provoke a conflict with NATO.”

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-crisis-coup-prigozhin/674516/

[konapoppy]

Yeah this man is not good news.

www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/world/europe/yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-wagner-coup.html?unlocked_article_code=KBkB18mnVl3da75x6x_dxkTNy-hV7QCZEkgqZtFXxiA79UyRurZPh2GfTrM8DM1e_9g2JhVLEwcB-SYJzMLCgRm1qRI1qKpaqn9pVbDwt-S16-NUBcJA0k_-59dxhTl6Jewg3uHIWcUctXLfKYXHW5ftfB2R261_-2IrPR_KJo9I2b4qZAkN5WK1bpalsV2vNJ2pW9A09J-l4D0jzGoKVWcBASC2XNYO7q8Tc2gCxW5Ab1eTWGCjPTubTxO2Qr0QVa3DdtQ7nfCpD4I_3tPaSlWiBORVu8OWxO0RaqIRDDw57U5GKYYa8mA_yBQmQ2y4r34JCkVeGdlWsh8Ty5DZxrMlydXgbN6CxWK3EuYXQvvkJP8&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[wise_rita]

Jun 24, 2023 7:05:06 GMT -5 imimahoney said:

Jun 24, 2023 6:28:57 GMT -5 wise_rita said:

Conspiracy theory (yeah yeah but I still think it's worth mentioning) Putin is in on it as a way to back out of Ukraine while saving face.

With how Wagner is just rolling in with little to no resistance, I agree that there is something up.

I imagine most of their military might and resources are...otherwise engaged.

[imimahoney]

And now it's just... over? What the hell is going on.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

[rubytue]

Jun 24, 2023 12:55:20 GMT -5 imimahoney said:

And now it's just... over? What the hell is going on.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142

Just heard this on NPR on my way home about 45 mins ago. There wasn’t a whole lot of analysis added. People seemed perplexed and not knowing what to say. 

[rubytue]

I can’t stop thinking about this. What happened? Why? Is it the start of an uprising? Was it just a bunch of bluster to show just how weak Russia/Putin is? Or will it fade into memory as a nothing burger? Also, is there a forcefield a couple hundred miles outside of Russia? From Napoleon on, everyone gets close and turns back. What is it?!

Sure, I’ve read through analyses, I have “answers.” But, I’m not sure anyone knows really. It’s just all so weird.

Also, I miss old Twitter. I rarely go on anymore, but was looking for stuff and fuck all the Q-ie shit it’s front and center. So I’ve seen that this is all (along with the sub) a distraction from hunter biden. And worse. Of course, the leader of the Wagner group also was the disinformation troll farm guy. So, yeah… unsurprising so much disinformation out there already. The sky was yellow, and the sun was blue.

[imimahoney]

Jun 24, 2023 22:22:26 GMT -5 rubytue said:

I can’t stop thinking about this. What happened? Why? Is it the start of an uprising? Was it just a bunch of bluster to show just how weak Russia/Putin is? Or will it fade into memory as a nothing burger? Also, is there a forcefield a couple hundred miles outside of Russia? From Napoleon on, everyone gets close and turns back. What is it?!

Sure, I’ve read through analyses, I have “answers.” But, I’m not sure anyone knows really. It’s just all so weird.

Also, I miss old Twitter. I rarely go on anymore, but was looking for stuff and fuck all the Q-ie shit it’s front and center. So I’ve seen that this is all (along with the sub) a distraction from hunter biden. And worse. Of course, the leader of the Wagner group also was the disinformation troll farm guy. So, yeah… unsurprising so much disinformation out there already. The sky was yellow, and the sun was blue.

Pretty much all of this. Nothing about this makes sense.

I'll be very curious to see what happens over the next few weeks.

[pierogigirl]

I predict Prigozhin will be defenestrated. A lot of Putin's critics seem to "fall" out of windows. I don't know what will happen to Putin, but it doesn't look too good for him, either.

[notreal]

This is slightly reminiscent of the Turkish Coup attempt in 2016 granted that was a lot more violent, where in the end, Erdoğan cambe back stronger and used it as an excuse to eliminate anyone he didn't want around anymore.

[Velar Fricative]

Today's The Daily episode had a good summary since I was so lost the entire weekend.

Makes me realize that it is likely that whenever Putin leaves office (even if he holds on until he dies a natural death), he has set up this system of cronies that, while it makes him very vulnerable to situations like this, the guy who will replace him will basically be similar to Putin.

[mcsangel2]

Jun 26, 2023 12:46:13 GMT -5 Velar Fricative said:

Today's The Daily episode had a good summary since I was so lost the entire weekend.

Makes me realize that it is likely that whenever Putin leaves office (even if he holds on until he dies a natural death), he has set up this system of cronies that, while it makes him very vulnerable to situations like this, the guy who will replace him will basically be similar to Putin.

Yes, this is the generally held belief and has been for quite awhile. I think there's a lot of people that don't realize this.

[konapoppy]

Good read from nyt on what led to this:
www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-russia-putin.html?unlocked_article_code=BWPj05xG2UHg-4yELnJ7C0eoCoC2El-QP31QGD8YEJs0vDhcOLLciHM4ybj1xbVipTfpwiJU7fAVN640MLEoPtrLeaPRDl2ylzyHz0Q0KHkD9CdONLuiqEq-3uO4qw_eVX58bJ1n3us6Wd9GC9Sbw12xBGjd3DgjqELKpVWhHCWWEbq3jy3fzQRhy7I340bibUvjzsIuP1c7YYS5RsoisfNtK9L4nMi4mKFLHUxhLKcqpjRL3_CJHqnGiTaIjJpEJp5RRWLyhaAZR2IzaHV5TH84ousW7-M59JpmYMNJW2RqjHo5ZI6ow7EG7oxvfrGMOf2lYemjoh5qjefS9Tn1e7fqP4eD_AFsEuYMsA&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[cattledogkisses]

Prigozhin is believed to be dead.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said.

Earlier, Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone reported the Embraer aircraft was shot down by air defences in the Tver region, north of Moscow.

The jet, which was flying from Moscow to St Petersburg, was carrying seven passengers and three crew.

Prigozhin led a failed mutiny against the Russian armed forces in June.

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733