"...sign that a crucial ocean current is near collapse"

[aurora]

www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/25/atlantic-ocean-amoc-climate-change/

"The Atlantic Ocean’s sensitive circulation system has become slower and less resilient, according to a new analysis of 150 years of temperature data — raising the possibility that this crucial element of the climate system could collapse within the next few decades."

The concern about the Atlantic's circulation is not new, exactly, but the article describes another paper coming out with supporting evidence that it may happen by around mid-Century.

[mrsukyankee]

And our current gov't is looking to pull out of any climate accords - cause they don't care if we become a frozen tundra (due to the current ocean current, we're a lot warmer than we'd be w/o it).

[audette]

And some are saying the Atlantic Gulf Stream could collapse as early as two years from now...

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests


It does sound like there is some disagreement among the experts regarding how well the models work, but it sounds like the disagreement is only on how far in the future the collapse will happen, not if...

[acuore]

This is all so scary. I’m struggling to maintain any sort of optimism in the face of all the bad climate news this summer.

The strange thing is that if (when) this happens it will actually *reverse* the warming effects of climate change in Europe. I wonder how/if this affects the European response to this possiblity? 

[penguingrrl]

That’s terrifying, and it seems like the whole world is putting their fingers in their ears saying “la la not listening” in service of capitalism and greed.

[lessel]

Re that Guardian story. It sounds like there are some errors with that reporting. Apologies for a link to a Twitter/X/whatever thread, but this seems to summarize the issues well:

[pixy0stix]

Jul 26, 2023 12:00:54 GMT -5 acuore said:

This is all so scary. I’m struggling to maintain any sort of optimism in the face of all the bad climate news this summer.

The strange thing is that if (when) this happens it will actually *reverse* the warming effects of climate change in Europe. I wonder how/if this affects the European response to this possiblity? 

There's no room for optimism anymore. We're at end stage and no one cares.

[msmerymac]

Jul 26, 2023 12:00:54 GMT -5 acuore said:

This is all so scary. I’m struggling to maintain any sort of optimism in the face of all the bad climate news this summer.

The strange thing is that if (when) this happens it will actually *reverse* the warming effects of climate change in Europe. I wonder how/if this affects the European response to this possiblity? 

I don't understand how anyone living through this summer could imagine we're any place except on a fast track to climate devastation. 

[minzy]

Jul 26, 2023 13:36:35 GMT -5 lessel said:

Re that Guardian story. It sounds like there are some errors with that reporting. Apologies for a link to a Twitter/X/whatever thread, but this seems to summarize the issues well:

Okay, he’s the executive director at Project Drawdown. That holds weight.

Even if this specific collapse estimate is exaggerated/incorrect with regard to timing, all of this is intensifying (snowless winters, wildfires, droughts/flooding, record land and water heat levels) and it’s so alarming. I feel like we have really arrived at the consequences phase of this and are the frog in the boiling water. It feels like many of the scenarios presented in The Uninhabitable Earth (David Wallace-Wells) and Hot: Living Through the Next 50 years on Earth (Mark Hertsgaard) are coming to fruition, and fast.

@@@@@@@@@@
It is hard to know how to handle this on an individual level but I am trying to lead by example, donate, show up to the conversation and influence policy where I can, and I am also spending at least part of my efforts “building community” given the advice from Mark Hertsgaard, to his then four-year-old daughter (on p. 293-94 of Hot): "One question I often thought about ... was where you should live in the future in order to stay safe... Choose carefully. If it were me, I'd look for a place that has a secure water supply, a capable government, and a vibrant community - a place where people know how to work with their hands, where they look out for one another and practice the Golden Rule. That's going to be your surest protection if things get difficult in the years ahead... At this point, my precious, beautiful daughter, all that's clear is that our civilization is entering a storm. There is no way around it; we have to go through it. We have to be brave, resourceful, and never give up. I would give my life to see you safe on the other side."

My local library system didn’t have the book but our state system did. I would link bookshop, but they don’t appear to have it, either, so here is the Amazon link in case anyone happens to want to read it:
www.amazon.com/Hot-Living-Through-Fifty-Years/dp/0618826122/ref=sr_1_fkmrnull_1?crid=271JJ9QH032E4&keywords=hot+living+through+the+next+fifty+years+on+earth&qid=1556034566&s=gateway&sprefix=hot+living+through%2Caps%2C136&sr=8-1-fkmrnull

[aurora]

I mean, yes, it's all pretty terrifying.

But that doesn't mean we don't keep fighting. That's the only chance we have.

[aurora]

Jul 26, 2023 15:52:16 GMT -5 minzy said:

Jul 26, 2023 13:36:35 GMT -5 lessel said:

Re that Guardian story. It sounds like there are some errors with that reporting. Apologies for a link to a Twitter/X/whatever thread, but this seems to summarize the issues well:

Okay, he’s the executive director at Project Drawdown. That holds weight.

Even if this specific collapse estimate is exaggerated/incorrect with regard to timing, all of this is intensifying (snowless winters, wildfires, droughts/flooding, record land and water heat levels) and it’s so alarming. I feel like we have really arrived at the consequences phase of this and are the frog in the boiling water. It feels like many of the scenarios presented in The Uninhabitable Earth (David Wallace-Wells) and Hot: Living Through the Next 50 years on Earth (Mark Hertsgaard) are coming to fruition, and fast. ...

And fast? Only if we ignore the fact that we've known about climate change to for more than 40 years, and actively done almost nothing to prevent it.

[pixy0stix]

Jul 26, 2023 20:15:22 GMT -5 aurora said:

I mean, yes, it's all pretty terrifying.

But that doesn't mean we don't keep fighting. That's the only chance we have.

I read an article last week in the NYTimes that kicked my optimism in the teeth. Basically most of the big O&G companies are quietly letting go of all the big climate changes they planned to implement. They're making too much money right now.

[pixy0stix]

Jul 26, 2023 20:19:00 GMT -5 aurora said:

Jul 26, 2023 15:52:16 GMT -5 minzy said:

Okay, he’s the executive director at Project Drawdown. That holds weight.

Even if this specific collapse estimate is exaggerated/incorrect with regard to timing, all of this is intensifying (snowless winters, wildfires, droughts/flooding, record land and water heat levels) and it’s so alarming. I feel like we have really arrived at the consequences phase of this and are the frog in the boiling water. It feels like many of the scenarios presented in The Uninhabitable Earth (David Wallace-Wells) and Hot: Living Through the Next 50 years on Earth (Mark Hertsgaard) are coming to fruition, and fast. ...

And fast? Only if we ignore the fact that we've known about climate change to for more than 40 years, and actively done almost nothing to prevent it.

20 years ago scientists accurately predicted that this is where we would be at this point. We all knew what was going to happen.

[minzy]

I meant that the acceleration seems fast, like, tremendous amounts of change in even the past two years. Of course it’s been on the horizon for decades.

[acuore]

Jul 26, 2023 15:08:36 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Jul 26, 2023 12:00:54 GMT -5 acuore said:

This is all so scary. I’m struggling to maintain any sort of optimism in the face of all the bad climate news this summer.

The strange thing is that if (when) this happens it will actually *reverse* the warming effects of climate change in Europe. I wonder how/if this affects the European response to this possiblity? 

There's no room for optimism anymore. We're at end stage and no one cares.

It’s not true that no one cares. A lot of people care. And I don’t see how throwing up one’s hands and saying “We’re all doomed” is useful, from either a personal or societal point of view. Things are going to bad, very bad, for many, many people and many parts of the planet, for the foreseeable future. That’s the reality we’re dealing with. But that doesn’t mean we should all curl up in a ball in the corner and give in to despair. 

[pixy0stix]

Jul 27, 2023 10:23:41 GMT -5 acuore said:

Jul 26, 2023 15:08:36 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

There's no room for optimism anymore. We're at end stage and no one cares.

It’s not true that no one cares. A lot of people care. And I don’t see how throwing up one’s hands and saying “We’re all doomed” is useful, from either a personal or societal point of view. Things are going to bad, very bad, for many, many people and many parts of the planet, for the foreseeable future. That’s the reality we’re dealing with. But that doesn’t mean we should all curl up in a ball in the corner and give in to despair. 

The world as we know it is gone. Gone gone. It's never coming back. Ever. We're all fucked. Every single person on this planet, and I *really* don't think people understand how fucked we are. That's not curling up in a corner, that's being realistic on what our shot of getting out of this is. Every time I say this, some well meaning poster comes in and says "but be optimistic!" There's no room for optimism. You wouldn't tell a person with cancer in hospice to be optimistic. That's cruel. You prepare for the worst and make the end stage easier for them. This is 100% end stage for the human race unless a miracle occurs. If you don't want to hear that now, then... ok.

[acuore]

Jul 27, 2023 10:31:01 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:23:41 GMT -5 acuore said:

It’s not true that no one cares. A lot of people care. And I don’t see how throwing up one’s hands and saying “We’re all doomed” is useful, from either a personal or societal point of view. Things are going to bad, very bad, for many, many people and many parts of the planet, for the foreseeable future. That’s the reality we’re dealing with. But that doesn’t mean we should all curl up in a ball in the corner and give in to despair. 

The world as we know it is gone. Gone gone. It's never coming back. Ever. We're all fucked. Every single person on this planet, and I *really* don't think people understand how fucked we are. That's not curling up in a corner, that's being realistic on what our shot of getting out of this is. Every time I say this, some well meaning poster comes in and says "but be optimistic!" There's no room for optimism. You wouldn't tell a person with cancer in hospice to be optimistic. That's cruel. You prepare for the worst and make the end stage easier for them. This is 100% end stage for the human race unless a miracle occurs. If you don't want to hear that now, then... ok.

“Fucked” in what sense? That we’ll all (or at least, the vast majority of us) live poorer, less comfortable, shorter lives? Yes, this is true.  Or are you a believer in near-term human extinction? I mean, yes, if you literally think everybody is going to be dead in, say, 15 years, like Guy MacPherson and crew, then I guess despair is reasonable. On the other hand, even in a poorer, harsher world, it should be possible to find good things and reasons to continue living, ways to locally work to make things better. This is what I consider “optimism” - not some naive belief that things are miraculously going to fix themselves and nothing will change. 

[pixy0stix]

I found a similar articles talking about how the O&G companies are dialing back their plans:

wapo.st/3q75C1z

www.npr.org/2023/06/14/1182102392/shell-plans-to-increase-fossil-fuel-production-despite-its-net-zero-pledge

[pixy0stix]

Jul 27, 2023 10:41:56 GMT -5 acuore said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:31:01 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

The world as we know it is gone. Gone gone. It's never coming back. Ever. We're all fucked. Every single person on this planet, and I *really* don't think people understand how fucked we are. That's not curling up in a corner, that's being realistic on what our shot of getting out of this is. Every time I say this, some well meaning poster comes in and says "but be optimistic!" There's no room for optimism. You wouldn't tell a person with cancer in hospice to be optimistic. That's cruel. You prepare for the worst and make the end stage easier for them. This is 100% end stage for the human race unless a miracle occurs. If you don't want to hear that now, then... ok.

“Fucked” in what sense? That we’ll all (or at least, the vast majority of us) live poorer, less comfortable, shorter lives? Yes, this is true.  Or are you a believer in near-term human extinction? I mean, yes, if you literally think everybody is going to be dead in, say, 15 years, like Guy MacPherson and crew, then I guess despair is reasonable. On the other hand, even in a poorer, harsher world, it should be possible to find good things and reasons to continue living, ways to locally work to make things better. This is what I consider “optimism” - not some naive belief that things are miraculously going to fix themselves and nothing will change. 

Did you know that the biggest worry of the Pentagon for the next world war 20 years ago to now was a war on resources due to climate change? There's more to it than finding ways to live locally. But ok, you be optimistic for both of us.

[pixy0stix]

Also, I think it's important to note that it's a privileged statement to suggest that humans as a whole are going to live in a poorer and harsher world. That's being generous. There's going to be large swaths of this planet that aren't going to be inhabitable anymore, but probably not in the US.

www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/Extreme-Heat-Report-IFRC-OCHA-2022.pdf

[acuore]

Jul 27, 2023 10:47:54 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:41:56 GMT -5 acuore said:

“Fucked” in what sense? That we’ll all (or at least, the vast majority of us) live poorer, less comfortable, shorter lives? Yes, this is true.  Or are you a believer in near-term human extinction? I mean, yes, if you literally think everybody is going to be dead in, say, 15 years, like Guy MacPherson and crew, then I guess despair is reasonable. On the other hand, even in a poorer, harsher world, it should be possible to find good things and reasons to continue living, ways to locally work to make things better. This is what I consider “optimism” - not some naive belief that things are miraculously going to fix themselves and nothing will change. 

Did you know that the biggest worry of the Pentagon for the next world war 20 years ago to now was a war on resources due to climate change? There's more to it than finding ways to live locally. But ok, you be optimistic for both of us.

So we’re fucked because there will be more wars? Yes, that’s very likely, including among nuclear-armed states. That’s one of the reasons we’ll be poorer, sicker, and less comfortable. Maybe it will set off WWIII and a generalized nuclear holocaust, which would be the worst case scenario - and might lead to human extinction - but that is not a certainty. 

I still don’t understand it you’re a believer in near-term human extinction or not. Or if you just think that a poorer, harder life is somehow not worth living? What exactly are you advocating for? Passive acceptance? Bitter resignation? I’m struggling to see how a mentality of “That’s it, game over, we’re all fucked, there’s no hope” translates into a functional daily life. Like, do you do any planning at all for the future in your personal life? Save for retirement? If you know young people, do you recommend they get an education or prepare for a career? Why bother, since there’s no hope and we’re all doomed? 

[pixy0stix]

Jul 27, 2023 11:05:08 GMT -5 acuore said:

Jul 27, 2023 10:47:54 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Did you know that the biggest worry of the Pentagon for the next world war 20 years ago to now was a war on resources due to climate change? There's more to it than finding ways to live locally. But ok, you be optimistic for both of us.

So we’re fucked because there will be more wars? Yes, that’s very likely, including among nuclear-armed states. That’s one of the reasons we’ll be poorer, sicker, and less comfortable. Maybe it will set off WWIII and a generalized nuclear holocaust, which would be the worst case scenario - and might lead to human extinction - but that is not a certainty. 

I still don’t understand it you’re a believer in near-term human extinction or not. Or if you just think that a poorer, harder life is somehow not worth living? What exactly are you advocating for? Passive acceptance? Bitter resignation? I’m struggling to see how a mentality of “That’s it, game over, we’re all fucked, there’s no hope” translates into a functional daily life. Like, do you do any planning at all for the future in your personal life? Save for retirement? If you know young people, do you recommend they get an education or prepare for a career? Why bother, since there’s no hope and we’re all doomed? 

I don't think you've ever met anyone in your life who is resigned to their fate, but just keeps plugging along, have you? LOL! I don't think our course is going to change, but also I'm not going to give up. I don't call that hope/optimism, just quietly moving along until I can't anymore.

[acuore]

Jul 27, 2023 11:08:23 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Jul 27, 2023 11:05:08 GMT -5 acuore said:

So we’re fucked because there will be more wars? Yes, that’s very likely, including among nuclear-armed states. That’s one of the reasons we’ll be poorer, sicker, and less comfortable. Maybe it will set off WWIII and a generalized nuclear holocaust, which would be the worst case scenario - and might lead to human extinction - but that is not a certainty. 

I still don’t understand it you’re a believer in near-term human extinction or not. Or if you just think that a poorer, harder life is somehow not worth living? What exactly are you advocating for? Passive acceptance? Bitter resignation? I’m struggling to see how a mentality of “That’s it, game over, we’re all fucked, there’s no hope” translates into a functional daily life. Like, do you do any planning at all for the future in your personal life? Save for retirement? If you know young people, do you recommend they get an education or prepare for a career? Why bother, since there’s no hope and we’re all doomed? 

I don't think you've ever met anyone in your life who is resigned to their fate, but just keeps plugging along, have you? LOL! I don't think our course is going to change, but also I'm not going to give up. I don't call that hope/optimism, just quietly moving along until I can't anymore.

Actually, that is what literally every one of us is doing, every day, from the moment of our birth. We plug along, doing our best, in a world over which we have shockingly little control, until our inevitable end. We all know the outcome, but we do our best and try to find some meaning and joy along the way. If you consider that stupid optimism, so be it. Most call it the human condition. 

[acuore]

Jul 27, 2023 11:01:16 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Also, I think it's important to note that it's a privileged statement to suggest that humans as a whole are going to live in a poorer and harsher world. That's being generous. There's going to be large swaths of this planet that aren't going to be inhabitable anymore, but probably not in the US.

www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/Extreme-Heat-Report-IFRC-OCHA-2022.pdf

You said above, “we’re all fucked. every single one of us.” Does that exclude N. americans? 

[pixy0stix]

Jul 27, 2023 11:47:17 GMT -5 acuore said:

Jul 27, 2023 11:01:16 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Also, I think it's important to note that it's a privileged statement to suggest that humans as a whole are going to live in a poorer and harsher world. That's being generous. There's going to be large swaths of this planet that aren't going to be inhabitable anymore, but probably not in the US.

www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/Extreme-Heat-Report-IFRC-OCHA-2022.pdf

You said above, “we’re all fucked. every single one of us.” Does that exclude N. americans? 

No, we're fucked too. All of us. Every single aspect of our lives is going to be changed. I'm just pointing out that in some areas of the world just aren't going to exist anymore, so those people aren't fucked. They're dead.

[aurora]

I've said something like this here before, but I think both of these things can be true at the same time: (1) climate change is happening and it's going to make life worse for almost everyone (including in the U.S. and other wealthy countries) and shorter for many, and also (2) we can and must keep fighting to keep it from getting a lot worse than that. The alternative of giving up is not acceptable.

[basilosaurus]

Meanwhile, scientists are removing coral in the keys to cooler tanks because the water is so damn hot. I've dived all throughout that reef system. This is so damn alarming and sad

www.sciencealert.com/florida-is-so-hot-scientists-are-taking-coral-out-of-the-ocean

[wawa]

All these articles have been really clear that this would mean much colder climate in the UK/adjacent europe - and I keep finding the same quote that water levels would rise on the eastern shore of North America, but what does it mean climate wise for north america? I assume it would also be colder, but how much? I can't find anything that goes into it in my quick google.

has anybody seen more detail on that?

[pixy0stix]

Aug 1, 2023 9:21:55 GMT -5 wawa said:

All these articles have been really clear that this would mean much colder climate in the UK/adjacent europe - and I keep finding the same quote that water levels would rise on the eastern shore of North America, but what does it mean climate wise for north america? I assume it would also be colder, but how much? I can't find anything that goes into it in my quick google.

has anybody seen more detail on that?

How technical do you want to get? LOL! www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876

Basically, modeling what this one ocean current does, it means that there would be a general slowdown of overall global warming in the Arctic. However, this is just one piece of the entire puzzle. It's like when we discuss what happens when one glacier melts, how many feet that will add to the ocean without taking into consideration that there are hundreds of glaciers and ice sheets adding similar amounts to the ocean.

As far as North America is concerned, this suggests (and is focused on Wisconsin) that we'd get a sudden heat spike - www.jsonline.com/story/news/local/wisconsin/2023/08/01/climate-change-could-collapse-an-atlantic-current-how-it-could-impact-wisconsin/70479485007/

[aurora]

Aug 1, 2023 9:21:55 GMT -5 wawa said:

All these articles have been really clear that this would mean much colder climate in the UK/adjacent europe - and I keep finding the same quote that water levels would rise on the eastern shore of North America, but what does it mean climate wise for north america? I assume it would also be colder, but how much? I can't find anything that goes into it in my quick google.

has anybody seen more detail on that?

North America is big enough that we'll see different impacts in different parts. Alaska and northern Canada will probably warm more than the rest, the West will likely get dryer, etc.