Can’t beleive we’re here again NH win

[cous0226]

He needs to just have a heart attack or die. We are just so fuuuucked. It goes to show you that ignoring him was not a winning strategy. I think Haley will quit in the next few weeks.

[underwaterrhymes]

Anyone who thought Nikki Haley actually stood a chance in NH was naive.

Trump has always had this in the bag because his base is unhinged and fired up - not a great combination for us, but an effective one for getting out the votes.

I hate our two-party system. I hate the way our elections run. Biden would not be my first choice. But Democrats (and hopefully rational Independents and Republicans who understand what is at stake) have GOT to come together or we will lose our democracy in November.

[aurora]

I don't think it's necessarily that we thought Haley could win NH, but rather the let down that she missed her best chance to stop him (according to the dominant media narrative).

[dutchgirl678]

He was expected to win by 30 points, she got a lot closer to him and that's why he's attacking her and threatening her to get out of the race.

[Velar Fricative]

Jan 24, 2024 6:26:47 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Anyone who thought Nikki Haley actually stood a chance in NH was naive.

Did anyone actually think that? I did not, but this was a much closer race than predicted. Yet the media is still making it seem like it was a rout, which I find sus. 

Having said that, I don't think she will want to face embarrassment losing her home state as badly as predicted and having no support among elected officials there so she'll likely bow out before then, but it's a month away so she has time to do so. 

[neverfstop]

I'm not shocked...I'm mostly frustrated that the primary was a "done deal" in Iowa & NH before it even started. We should be talking about massive system reform and overhaul- a national primary day so that all citizens have a chance to have their voices heard. This system really sucks & we can and should do better.

I am almost willing to bet that people in Iowa would be happy not to be deluged with hundreds of millions of dollars in ads for months...

It's good for Biden- he would have had a tough race against Haley & likely lost. I'm curious to see if she'll be back in 2024.

[neverfstop]

I adore this podcast for years & their analysis and takes on politics is my therapy. Yesterday's episode was another one that is trying to help me figure ot what to do and how to approach Trump and people who support him.

www.pantsuitpoliticsshow.com/show-archives/2024/1/22/donald-trump-uvalde-and-a-culture-of-complacency

Trump’s Legal and Electoral Questions

*Is Donald Trump Loyal to the Constitution?

*Is Donald Trump Eligible to Serve/Disqualified from Running?

*Did Donald Trump pressure other people to commit crime on his behalf?

*Is Donald Trump Trustworthy?

[neverfstop]

More than 54K people physically wrote in Joe Biden's name in NH, so that's showing some enthusiasm...more than I expected.

mail.webp (70.65 KB)

[noodleoo]

I follow Jay Kuo on FB/substack and his analysis is keeping me going.

statuskuo.substack.com/p/biden-is-smiling-and-trump-is-pissed

I figured it is going to be Trump vs Biden 2.0 a while ago. But I'm cautiously optimistic for Biden. I think Dump is going to continue going off the rails as the year progresses and (hopefully) the trials get started. He really seems to be detioriating mentally, whether it is dementia or stress or what I don't care, but I hope it becomes more obvious quickly.

[mrshandy]

Jan 24, 2024 11:47:27 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

I follow Jay Kuo on FB/substack and his analysis is keeping me going.

statuskuo.substack.com/p/biden-is-smiling-and-trump-is-pissed

I figured it is going to be Trump vs Biden 2.0 a while ago. But I'm cautiously optimistic for Biden. I think Dump is going to continue going off the rails as the year progresses and (hopefully) the trials get started. He really seems to be detioriating mentally, whether it is dementia or stress or what I don't care, but I hope it becomes more obvious quickly.

I haven't seen this. But I am optimistic as well. Trump won in 2016 with his base + independents. I think many if not most independents were off the Trump train in 2020 which is why Biden won. I find it hard to believe that he will win over enough independents in 2024. 

But that's just my unqualified opinion and I will fully admit that I'm terrified of the election because I still am recovering from 2016. 

[ellipses84]

Jan 24, 2024 12:08:30 GMT -5 mrshandy said:

Jan 24, 2024 11:47:27 GMT -5 noodleoo said:

I follow Jay Kuo on FB/substack and his analysis is keeping me going.

statuskuo.substack.com/p/biden-is-smiling-and-trump-is-pissed

I figured it is going to be Trump vs Biden 2.0 a while ago. But I'm cautiously optimistic for Biden. I think Dump is going to continue going off the rails as the year progresses and (hopefully) the trials get started. He really seems to be detioriating mentally, whether it is dementia or stress or what I don't care, but I hope it becomes more obvious quickly.

I haven't seen this. But I optimistic as well. Trump won in 2016 with his base + independents. I think many if not most independents were off the Trump train in 2020 which is why Biden won. I find it hard to believe that he will win over enough independents in 2024. 

But that's just my unqualified opinion and I will fully admit that I'm terrified of the election because I still am recovering from 2016. 

I’m cautiously optimistic as well. I think dumpster fire has only lost voters every 4 years. After January 6, there were even more regretful 2020 voters. There are some young new voters who will vote for him but I think that’s a very small percentage. Everyone is exhausted from years of chaos and instability from his presidency and Covid so I don’t see the majority of the public willing to welcome that back. I’m curious to see a comparison of the total numbers of R primary voters from the last 3 elections, because the % don’t meant much if the voter base has shrunk. I think those not willing to vote for Biden will stay home and we need Democratic voter turnout. If the stock market can keep doing well until Election Day that’s a good predictor the incumbent president will win.

[sent]

For those who know more about the electoral system than my 8th grade education of it, is this election going to come down to one or two swing states again? (and again and again ugh)

[neverfstop]

Jan 24, 2024 12:52:28 GMT -5 sent said:

For those who know more about the electoral system than my 8th grade education of it, is this election going to come down to one or two swing states again? (and again and again ugh)

Toss-ups: (TOTAL: 41 Electoral Votes)



Arizona (11), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)


This map makes me want to vomit

www.cnn.com/2024/01/05/politics/road-to-270-electoral-votes-2024 

----------

That’s left a handful of truly competitive swing states to decide the outcome. Biden won in 2020 by flipping five states that had voted for Trump in 2016: Arizona and Georgia in the Sunbelt, and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the industrial heartland. While the two sides will contest a few other states this year – with Republicans targeting Nevada and maybe Minnesota or New Hampshire, and Democrats besieging North Carolina – it’s most likely that a close election will be decided by those five states.



Of those five, Biden in 2020 won Arizona (0.4 points) and Georgia (0.3 points) by the smallest margins. But Trump or another Republican could win back both of those states – and for that matter Nevada – and still fall just short of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. “I don’t believe there is a race without GOP wins in AZ and GA,” Republican pollster Gene Ulm wrote in an email. “This isn’t the tipping point; it’s the STARTING point.”

www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/politics/2024-tipping-point-races-analysis/index.html

[lilac05]

Jan 24, 2024 11:30:48 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

I'm not shocked...I'm mostly frustrated that the primary was a "done deal" in Iowa & NH before it even started. We should be talking about massive system reform and overhaul- a national primary day so that all citizens have a chance to have their voices heard. This system really sucks & we can and should do better.

I am almost willing to bet that people in Iowa would be happy not to be deluged with hundreds of millions of dollars in ads for months...

It's good for Biden- he would have had a tough race against Haley & likely lost. I'm curious to see if she'll be back in 2024.

Yes, please! We don’t need 100,000 old white farmers to have that much power in the future of our country. We need a national primary Election Day so everyone has a chance! (And so we can spread the love of the obnoxious ads to the whole country. It’s absolutely ABSURD…though interestingly, I got NOTHING in the mail. I’m a registered voter, but not registered for either party. Apparently they don’t even care about trying to sway independents to register R.

[neverfstop]

I heard these numbers this morning.... Ad spend per candidate / votes per candidate in Iowa

www.businessinsider.com/desantis-trump-haley-iowa-caucuses-fundraising-ads-2024-1#:~:text=The%20result%20was%20DeSantis%20spending,spent%20%2432%2C037%2C828%2C%20per%20AdImpact.)

DeSantis $1,497
Trump $328
Haley $1,760

[basilosaurus]

Jan 24, 2024 13:47:17 GMT -5 lilac05 said:

Jan 24, 2024 11:30:48 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

I'm not shocked...I'm mostly frustrated that the primary was a "done deal" in Iowa & NH before it even started. We should be talking about massive system reform and overhaul- a national primary day so that all citizens have a chance to have their voices heard. This system really sucks & we can and should do better.

I am almost willing to bet that people in Iowa would be happy not to be deluged with hundreds of millions of dollars in ads for months...

It's good for Biden- he would have had a tough race against Haley & likely lost. I'm curious to see if she'll be back in 2024.

Yes, please! We don’t need 100,000 old white farmers to have that much power in the future of our country. We need a national primary Election Day so everyone has a chance! (And so we can spread the love of the obnoxious ads to the whole country. It’s absolutely ABSURD…though interestingly, I got NOTHING in the mail. I’m a registered voter, but not registered for either party. Apparently they don’t even care about trying to sway independents to register R.

When I first registered my dad advised me not to register with a party to avoid mailings and calls as much as possible.

When I canvassed for Hilary, we only went to houses with registered democratic voters. I think their thinking was that with limited resources it's better to go for known voters to encourage them to actually vote instead of lengthy debates that might do nothing at best.