August Political Randoms

[ellipses84]

Mine are really random.

Someone from my high school is running for AG in my home state. He’s definitely qualified and I want him to win! He has a cute Olympic themed commercial with his kids in it, and he was also on a reality show in the early 2000s. We went to a really small high school so I’m going to be vague and put my other random in a separate post.

[ellipses84]

Last night I found out my ex-bf from high school is running for Governor in our home state (as a Democrat in a blue state). This month is their primary and there are a lot of candidates. It’s super weird though and I don’t think he’s campaigned at all. My BFF works in the Capitol and she pulled up all his financial info, like even about his car payments 😂 I was like, remind me to never run for office unless my finances are perfect (anyone can get $$$ info for any candidate as it has to be publicly disclosed). The money that was raised and spent seems like enough for his website. Did he lose a bet? Is this a bucket list item he’s doing even though he knows he’ll never win? Is this revenge against an opponent he hates? I could definitely see him running for office with his career background but why start with Governor?!! Maybe just to get notoriety? I’m so confused!

[stuffandthings]

My uncle is running for Texas state house...again. He's a Dem in blood-red West Texas and so he runs and loses every so often.

[mrsukyankee]

We're having a ton of right wing assholes going into small cities and causing havoc. It's being brought about by right wing media pushing a very false story about an immigrant doing a murder. These people are going into the worse hit cities for poverty and destroying stores and other community places (and, of course, Mosques). The gov't is finally bringing out more and more police to help with this - lots of idiotic white men, of course.

[pixy0stix]

Jenna Ellis is cooperating with AZ re: election interference charges - www.politico.com/news/2024/08/05/jenna-ellis-arizona-deal-00172692

[pixy0stix]

First AZ fake elector takes plea - www.politico.com/news/2024/08/06/arizona-fake-elector-guilty-plea-00172983

I can't believe we're having another election where this might happen and we're still dicking around prosecuting the last one.

[brooklyn]

I’m running for town council in my small town in NJ! Here’s my plea to remind you to support down ballot races. Fundraising is brutal. Did you know small campaigns still have big overhead costs? Graphic design/website/lawn signs/newspaper ads all add up.

I don’t want my campaign info tracked back to this account, but happy to share via pm if anyone wants to help us out! 💕

[fortnightlily]

Cori Bush loses her primary, AIPAC takes credit.

www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/us/politics/bush-bell-aipac-missouri-primary.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BE4.8Cty.P-DAPKwRsHdp&smid=url-share

[timorousbeastie]

Aug 7, 2024 9:32:08 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

First AZ fake elector takes plea - www.politico.com/news/2024/08/06/arizona-fake-elector-guilty-plea-00172983

I can't believe we're having another election where this might happen and we're still dicking around prosecuting the last one.

Meanwhile, one of the MI fake electors won his primary to be re-elected as clerk, despite the Secretary of State barring him from performing the election related duties of his position.
www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/macomb-county/2024/08/06/macomb-county-sheriff-republican-primary-close-so-far/74598537007/

[ellipses84]

My sister sent me a photo of her voters guide with my ex-bf’s picture and said she has to move now 😂 Then she sent me the pages for a couple other primary candidates and they are completely unhinged, so his seems pretty normal in comparison. Apparently he’s been on the local news a couple times.

[mrsukyankee]

I thought I'd follow up on the right wing rioters and what has happened around the country in response - here's one example:

Far-right disorder fails to materialise as thousands of counter-protesters line the streets
Anti-fascist, anti-racism protests were also held in Finchley, Brentford, Lewisham, and towns and cities across the UK

Widespread public disorder linked to the far-right failed to materialise on Wednesday night, as instead counter-protesters turned out in their thousands for anti-racism demonstrations.

Walthamstow was particularly busy with the streets packed with an estimated 10,000 anti-fascist demonstrators.

link (with video)

So proud of Londoners!

There were also stories of women coming out of pubs and hugging Muslims in support as they joined the anti-fascist walks. Go us!

[basilosaurus]

Who knew that a country that suffered from the blitz would be so antifa! Said with heavy sarcasm. Suckonit racist fascists!

[msmerymac]

After leaving fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver took his model and now has his own newsletter, etc. His polling model shows a 5.6 point increase in support for the Democratic ticket in the presidential race in the last month, with Harris averaging 1.5 points above Trump.

www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[TR]

Aug 8, 2024 14:33:28 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

After leaving fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver took his model and now has his own newsletter, etc. His polling model shows a 5.6 point increase in support for the Democratic ticket in the presidential race in the last month, with Harris averaging 1.5 points above Trump.

www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Wasn’t he very very wrong in 2016? Am I misremembering?

[msmerymac]

Aug 8, 2024 14:45:37 GMT -5 TR said:

Aug 8, 2024 14:33:28 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

After leaving fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver took his model and now has his own newsletter, etc. His polling model shows a 5.6 point increase in support for the Democratic ticket in the presidential race in the last month, with Harris averaging 1.5 points above Trump.

www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Wasn’t he very very wrong in 2016? Am I misremembering?

You might be thinking of the NYTimes, which gave Clinton like a 99% chance of winning. Fivethirtyeight had her between 63% and 76% in the month or so leading up to the election. Trump had between a 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 chance of winning by election day according to their model, partially because their model took into account that similar states (like PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin) could start falling the same way for the same reasons, whereas other models treated every state separately. 

[minzy]

I was polled today by phone for about 15 minutes about the presidential race and down ballots with a focus on my Congressional race. The guy asked things like “if we phrase the description of the candidate this way, are you more or less likely to vote for them?” Etc. I told him at one point I objected to the form of the question, haha. But I let him have it.

[litebright]

Aug 8, 2024 14:48:20 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

Aug 8, 2024 14:45:37 GMT -5 TR said:

Wasn’t he very very wrong in 2016? Am I misremembering?

You might be thinking of the NYTimes, which gave Clinton like a 99% chance of winning. Fivethirtyeight had her between 63% and 76% in the month or so leading up to the election. Trump had between a 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 chance of winning by election day according to their model, partially because their model took into account that similar states (like PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin) could start falling the same way for the same reasons, whereas other models treated every state separately. 

Nate Silver and his modeling WAS 538. He founded it. 

ETA: Sorry, I think I'm misreading your post. Wasn't 538 part of NYT? I thought 538 was the basis for their election predictions? 

[msmerymac]

Aug 10, 2024 9:56:11 GMT -5 litebright said:

Aug 8, 2024 14:48:20 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

You might be thinking of the NYTimes, which gave Clinton like a 99% chance of winning. Fivethirtyeight had her between 63% and 76% in the month or so leading up to the election. Trump had between a 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 chance of winning by election day according to their model, partially because their model took into account that similar states (like PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin) could start falling the same way for the same reasons, whereas other models treated every state separately. 

Nate Silver and his modeling WAS 538. He founded it. 

ETA: Sorry, I think I'm misreading your post. Wasn't 538 part of NYT? I thought 538 was the basis for their election predictions? 

No, it’s owned by ABC now, but it was independent in 2016.

Nate Cohn works for NYT! Other Nate

[sonrisa]

Aug 10, 2024 9:56:11 GMT -5 litebright said:

Aug 8, 2024 14:48:20 GMT -5 msmerymac said:

You might be thinking of the NYTimes, which gave Clinton like a 99% chance of winning. Fivethirtyeight had her between 63% and 76% in the month or so leading up to the election. Trump had between a 1 in 4 and 1 in 3 chance of winning by election day according to their model, partially because their model took into account that similar states (like PA, Michigan, and Wisconsin) could start falling the same way for the same reasons, whereas other models treated every state separately. 

Nate Silver and his modeling WAS 538. He founded it. 

ETA: Sorry, I think I'm misreading your post. Wasn't 538 part of NYT? I thought 538 was the basis for their election predictions? 

nate silver, and his 538 model, we’re at the nytimes for the 2008 election. Then the nytimes decided to shift. Nate Silver and 538 went independent before the 2016 elections and nytimes moved to Nate Cohen. Now nate silver has moved again.

[underwaterrhymes]

This bodes well for November in Wisconsin. Voters voted “no” on two measures that would have limited the governor’s power to spend federal $$.

It’s a big win for the Democrats.


www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/13/wisconsin-voters-reject-referendums-on-power-to-spend-federal-money/74724121007/

[underwaterrhymes]

Also, abortion is on the ballot in AZ and MO. This makes me think that AZ will go blue.

I’m not optimistic about MO - I expect it will stay red because even the popular vote there has been red - but it could have some impact on down ballot races.

[fernweh]

Aug 14, 2024 6:52:25 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Also, abortion is on the ballot in AZ and MO. This makes me think that AZ will go blue.

I’m not optimistic about MO - I expect it will stay red because even the popular vote there has been red - but it could have some impact on down ballot races.

Not sure if it was mentioned up thread but it’s also on the ballot in FL (I think 5 states have it in the ballot but can’t remember the others). I have seen some online speculation (definitely not getting my hopes up) that Florida could also flip blue due to the voter turnout that abortion rights drives for the dems.

[pixy0stix]

Aug 14, 2024 7:43:13 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Aug 14, 2024 6:52:25 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Also, abortion is on the ballot in AZ and MO. This makes me think that AZ will go blue.

I’m not optimistic about MO - I expect it will stay red because even the popular vote there has been red - but it could have some impact on down ballot races.

Not sure if it was mentioned up thread but it’s also on the ballot in FL (I think 5 states have it in the ballot but can’t remember the others). I have seen some online speculation (definitely not getting my hopes up) that Florida could also flip blue due to the voter turnout that abortion rights drives for the dems.

Even if the whole state doesn't flip blue, I think turning pockets blue would be greatly helpful. Shake up some of the State legislatures a bit.

[mrsukyankee]

I'm just dying...




For those not in the know, Liz Truss was our Prime Minster for less time then it took for a head of lettuce to go bad (she's now our Scaramucci for PMs).

Led by Donkeys is a group that began with the idiocy of our gov't and Brexit and it's just grown into something beautiful. LOL.

[Susie]

There's a particular family in our county that dominates local politics.  Currently, the same last name appears twice in the list of trial court justices in our county, and again as an appellate division justice in our department, making 3 Hon. Lastnames currently, not counting all of the retired "Hon. Lastnames" in recent memory.

The wife of one of the Lastname trial court judges just announced she's now running for an open town judge seat.  She's got the party endorsement, and will accordingly win.  H's reaction was a more charitable "good for her," but I was honestly annoyed.  The couple/family seems nice enough, and espouses progressive D values that I can get behind, but the same could be said for a lot of very qualified people (including POC) that I'd rather support.  This family seems to feel (and be?) entitled to one D endorsement after another for judicial appointments.  It never seems to be opened up for others to be considered, unless they've run out of Lastnames to put into seats.

They all talk endlessly about "serving my/our community" during their campaigns.  Be real, this is a prestigious appointment with a hefty pay bump both now and for retirement.  Any service to the community is incidental to the personal enrichment.  Legacy admissions to prestigious schools are out, when do we come for this? 

[basilosaurus]

www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-american-ksenia-karelina-sentenced-to-12-years/?ftag=CNM-00-10aag9b

Russian American woman sentenced to penal colony for 12 years in Russia for treason.

She was arrested when trying to visit family in the charge that she donated $51 to Ukrainian humanitarian aid.

Normally I'd say there has to be more to this, but it's Russia. I'd easily believe they said plea to treason and go to the colony or well just execute immediately.

[fernweh]

Santos has plead guilty to wire fraud and identity theft

apnews.com/article/george-santos-plea-court-new-york-90741d068fd94090419fc0fd79be30cc

Honestly between this and Mendez and Trump I think that we have proven that elected officials aren’t just trustworthy because people voted for them. I wish they could pass legislation that stated you had to pass a background check before you could be on the ballot. I’m sure there are enough people in the government with skeletons to hide that it would never happen but it needs to.