Who do you think will be president?

[StrawberryBlondie]

Aug 14, 2024 10:50:44 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

Aug 14, 2024 10:37:34 GMT -5 mala said:

Harris will win the popular vote, but TFG and the Rs are going to pull some massive shady shit between election day and inauguration so it is not going to be without a fight.

Yeah, I'm here. I think Harris will win (both electoral and popular), but it's going to be close again and Trump is going to pull some shaaaady shit.

I'm also here. I have no illusions that this is going to be an easy win but I do think she'll win.

I don't remember if I voted in the last poll, but before he dropped out, I did believe Biden would win. I thought that abortion and down ballot races would help the top of the ticket rather than the "normal" way of thinking that the top of the ticket impacts the down ballot races.

[TR]

Aug 14, 2024 12:57:44 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I just created a spreadsheet because looking at concrete numbers helps me process. lol

I feel pretty confident about Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and if she gets those, plus the usual blue states, that puts her at 259. Trump sits at 170 with just the usual red states. (I gave him TX because as much as I think it’s trending blue, I don’t feel confident that this will be the year.)

I think Florida is in play, as is Georgia, so those plus the rest of the swing states are up for grabs. The excitement makes me think she can get at least 270, but obviously we want a bigger win than that because of GOP shenanigans.

If you want to play with the EC visually: www.270towin.com/

[StrawberryBlondie]

Aug 14, 2024 13:05:22 GMT -5 cville said:

Fuck the electoral college.

Amen.

[cous0226]

I just want it to be overwhelming to include NC, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona. I don't want to sit around and wait for MI, PA and WI to decide an election again.

[katfco]

I do think she'll win. I think we all know there will be all sorts of shenanigans and lawsuits, likely culminating in going to the supreme court.

That terrifies me, but I have to believe in the end, she will be our president.

[neverfstop]

I'm thinking a 40+ state sweep.... he needs that much of a rebuke. Plus I want a down ballot sweep to get 60 in the senate. We need to run the table....

She's within 5% points in latest FL poll. At least make them nervous and defend it.
www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2024/08/13/could-harris-momentum-put-florida-in-play-00132333

Yes, always & forever, fuck the undemocratic electoral college.

[neverfstop]

Vice President Harris now has the lead in the critical swing states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the Cook Political Report. She and former President Trump are tied in Georgia, and his lead in Nevada is shrinking.

www.axios.com/2024/08/14/kamala-harris-swing-states-cook-political-report-election?

[underwaterrhymes]

Aug 14, 2024 20:03:21 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Vice President Harris now has the lead in the critical swing states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the Cook Political Report. She and former President Trump are tied in Georgia, and his lead in Nevada is shrinking.

www.axios.com/2024/08/14/kamala-harris-swing-states-cook-political-report-election?

Nevada went blue in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. I would be shocked if Trump gets it this time.

[livinitup]

I clicked yes for Harris. I have been too depressed for too long thinking that too many people were too stupid and Trump would win not to scream from the rooftops that I think Harris a real chance to be victorious. Superstition be damned !

[lilac05]

Harris…but I am not expecting them to call anything right away.

Hopefully people have learned that they HAVE to vote, even if it looks like it’s going to be a landslide victory. We need to keep the momentum going & pressure on so people actually vote, not just assume she will win.

[lostrn]

I think I have too many MAGA acquaintances in my social media...the stuff they say is so disgusting and discouraging. I'm not confident that enough people will get out and vote the "right way".

[basilosaurus]

Aug 14, 2024 13:56:53 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

I would love to click Harris, but I dissect the polls on the daily, and it is WAY too close to predict right now. Like way, way too close. Trump could still legitimately win. Just do yourselves a favor and don't be like me in 2016 and be so caught off guard by his winning that you actually think you're experiencing a mental break. I'm not doing that again.

And don't start sobbing in public at the airport hotel bar. Nor the next day, still mildly intoxicated, at lunch. 

Nevermind. If that mango menace actually wins, I fully expect to break down and cry anytime anyplace. That's just reality, and there's nothing that will prevent it.

[neverfstop]

Summary per Axios

Democrats improved their vote share in every Senate race since Cook Political last fielded polls on seven presidential battlegrounds in May.

"The surge has been particularly large in Nevada, which had been one of Biden's worst states," Cook's Jessica Taylor writes.
Between the lines: If the Democrats keep the White House, they can afford to lose only one seat. It's unlikely they'll win in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin didn't seek re-election.

"Montana Sen. Jon Tester remains the most in peril in a state Trump won in 2020 by 16 points, followed by Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown in a Trump +8 state," Taylor writes.

www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/democrats-maintain-edge-new-senate-polls-nevada?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

[redheadbaker]

Harris has slight lead over Trump in PA

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4827988-harris-trump-pennsylvania-poll-women-voters/

Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading in PA.

[imimahoney]

Aug 14, 2024 20:17:21 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Aug 14, 2024 20:03:21 GMT -5 neverfstop said:

Vice President Harris now has the lead in the critical swing states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the Cook Political Report. She and former President Trump are tied in Georgia, and his lead in Nevada is shrinking.

www.axios.com/2024/08/14/kamala-harris-swing-states-cook-political-report-election?

Nevada went blue in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. I would be shocked if Trump gets it this time.

I honestly do not understand how Trump is up in polls there but the Dem Senate candidate is +18 over the MAGA guy. Like how do those numbers work together??

Nevada election pollsters keep saying how much Nevada has trended right in the past elections but still... to have the Senate numbers so wide. It makes me very confused.