Who do you think will be president?

[fernweh]

We did a poll in January on who we thought would be president after the next inauguration.
134 votes had:
90 for Biden, 29 for Trump, 3 for Harris, 6 Nikki Haley and then a couple other random ones.
Given how much has changed since then I thought it would be interesting to redo.

Please answer based on who you truly think will be president, not who you want to be.

[abs]

Harris. There is energy and enthusiasm surrounding her that Biden just didn’t have.

In the previous poll I voted for Trump.

Not getting complacent though.

ETA: definitely worried about voting shenanigans but I can’t let myself get too carried away with that.

[mala]

Harris will win the popular vote, but TFG and the Rs are going to pull some massive shady shit between election day and inauguration so it is not going to be without a fight.

[jinkies]

I'm not sure I voted in January, but at the time I truly believed it would be Trump.

I think Harris has a MUCH better chance than Biden, but still feel like it is a coin flip due to the electoral college system. I agree with mala that she will win the popular vote without issue.

[Susie]

Aug 14, 2024 10:26:37 GMT -5 fernweh said:

Please answer based on who you truly think will be president, not who you want to be.

I'm not sure I can separate at this point.  My sanity and peace demand my belief that Harris can do it.  I'm choosing to manifest it into being.  With help from donations, social media, yard signs, public support, and the whole nine.

[pixy0stix]

Aug 14, 2024 10:37:34 GMT -5 mala said:

Harris will win the popular vote, but TFG and the Rs are going to pull some massive shady shit between election day and inauguration so it is not going to be without a fight.

Yeah, I'm here. I think Harris will win (both electoral and popular), but it's going to be close again and Trump is going to pull some shaaaady shit.

[heygrey]

Aug 14, 2024 10:37:34 GMT -5 mala said:

Harris will win the popular vote, but TFG and the Rs are going to pull some massive shady shit between election day and inauguration so it is not going to be without a fight.

Yup. I'm confident Harris has the momentum to win, but the losers will be sore and do everything legal and illegal to block it.

Biden did not have that and I truly feared for another four years of a lunatic running the country and any shreds of democracy crumbling. 

[loira]

www.canadaforpresident.com/

[fortnightlily]

I can see how Trump has lost voters. I can't see how he's gained any. So given that he lost last time, that gives me optimism. I have no illusions that it won't be a fight though.

[ellipses84]

I can’t click on a poll in the app.

Harris. My answer before was Biden but it would have been close with the swing states the deciding factor. Even if people weren’t excited, the demographic changes from 2020, even more anti-Orange Rs / undecided voters post Jan 6 who would quietly vote D, and @ abortion on the ballot in several states led me to believe that. I think Harris will win with a larger margin because there is so much more excitement, discussion, $$$$ for ads and field offices, grass roots efforts, etc.

[ellipses84]

Also, I still have massive anxiety about the election. Let’s hope everyone else who feels that way remembers every day of uncertainty and chaos from 2016-2020 and votes blue.

[underwaterrhymes]

My heart wants to say Harris. I really am excited by this momentum and enthusiasm. I think that definitely bodes well for turnout and I believe strongly that Biden and Harris and their teams are fully aware of what they’re dealing with and have a plan in place to fight any nefarious shit.

But I cannot state firmly that I think Harris will win because we are still 82 days out and the GOP has shit up their sleeves and my anxiety simply won’t let me click on that poll.

[underwaterrhymes]

I just created a spreadsheet because looking at concrete numbers helps me process. lol

I feel pretty confident about Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and if she gets those, plus the usual blue states, that puts her at 259. Trump sits at 170 with just the usual red states. (I gave him TX because as much as I think it’s trending blue, I don’t feel confident that this will be the year.)

I think Florida is in play, as is Georgia, so those plus the rest of the swing states are up for grabs. The excitement makes me think she can get at least 270, but obviously we want a bigger win than that because of GOP shenanigans.

[cville]

Fuck the electoral college.

[havarti]

www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Jalapeñomel]

On the app, so no click.

Harris will win the election. Will she end up president? Time will only tell.

[mcsangel2]

I would love to click Harris, but I dissect the polls on the daily, and it is WAY too close to predict right now. Like way, way too close. Trump could still legitimately win. Just do yourselves a favor and don't be like me in 2016 and be so caught off guard by his winning that you actually think you're experiencing a mental break. I'm not doing that again.

[mcmel]

I truly believe Harris will win by a landslide.

[mcsangel2]

Aug 14, 2024 12:57:44 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I think Florida is in play, as is Georgia, so those plus the rest of the swing states are up for grabs. The excitement makes me think she can get at least 270, but obviously we want a bigger win than that because of GOP shenanigans.

Did you mean North Carolina? Florida isn't going to get close to going blue. It's been solid red for awhile now.

[fernweh]

Aug 14, 2024 14:07:24 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Aug 14, 2024 12:57:44 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I think Florida is in play, as is Georgia, so those plus the rest of the swing states are up for grabs. The excitement makes me think she can get at least 270, but obviously we want a bigger win than that because of GOP shenanigans.

Did you mean North Carolina? Florida isn't going to get close to going blue. It's been solid red for awhile now.

I agree that it is highly unlikely but she is gaining on him in polls. Plus I have seen speculation that with abortion on ballot it will drive democratic turnout.

www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/08/13/kamala-harris-trump-florida-polls/74770114007/

[eb777888]

I'm very hopeful, but I'm also very cautious and reminding myself that it looked like HRC was winning by a landslide in 2016.

There's people around me that are certain she's going to win and chilling their champagne. I'm optimistic, but definitely not chilling my champagne.

[mcppalmbeach]

Aug 14, 2024 13:05:22 GMT -5 cville said:

Fuck the electoral college.

The only correct answer.

[Michelle]

where is the "too soon to tell" option? I think it is a crapshoot right now.

I'm hoping and praying for Harris, but i know misogyny and racism work against her. So does misinformation and blind party loyalty. and the electoral college.

[underwaterrhymes]

Aug 14, 2024 14:07:24 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Aug 14, 2024 12:57:44 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

I think Florida is in play, as is Georgia, so those plus the rest of the swing states are up for grabs. The excitement makes me think she can get at least 270, but obviously we want a bigger win than that because of GOP shenanigans.

Did you mean North Carolina? Florida isn't going to get close to going blue. It's been solid red for awhile now.

No, I mean Florida. It was blue in 2008 and 2012. There was only a difference of 100,000 votes in 2020 and I think - especially if abortion is on the ballot and there is an exciting candidate - it could feasibly go blue.

[underwaterrhymes]

Aug 14, 2024 13:56:53 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

I would love to click Harris, but I dissect the polls on the daily, and it is WAY too close to predict right now. Like way, way too close. Trump could still legitimately win. Just do yourselves a favor and don't be like me in 2016 and be so caught off guard by his winning that you actually think you're experiencing a mental break. I'm not doing that again.

I’m completely ignoring the polls. I was one of the few I know who was cautioning people Trump could win in 2016, and I was still absolutely rocked the morning after the election.

[sju]

Aug 14, 2024 16:04:00 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

Aug 14, 2024 14:07:24 GMT -5 mcsangel2 said:

Did you mean North Carolina? Florida isn't going to get close to going blue. It's been solid red for awhile now.

No, I mean Florida. It was blue in 2008 and 2012. There was only a difference of 100,000 votes in 2020 and I think - especially if abortion is on the ballot and there is an exciting candidate - it could feasibly go blue.

That’s my hope but I would be surprised if we go blue. I live in an area that’s supposed to be blue and the Trump support I see on the local social media and out and about is strong (and gross). :-( 

[polarbearfans]

I picked Harris. I hope people have more sense than to vote for Trump. I never do yard signs, and I am 100% putting one up when I can. I feel Trump has some supporters in this area for whatever reason, so I will do what I can to put Harris’ name out there. I pray people research. We cannot have Trump in office again.

[underwaterrhymes]

Aug 14, 2024 17:13:08 GMT -5 sju said:

Aug 14, 2024 16:04:00 GMT -5 underwaterrhymes said:

No, I mean Florida. It was blue in 2008 and 2012. There was only a difference of 100,000 votes in 2020 and I think - especially if abortion is on the ballot and there is an exciting candidate - it could feasibly go blue.

That’s my hope but I would be surprised if we go blue. I live in an area that’s supposed to be blue and the Trump support I see on the local social media and out and about is strong (and gross). :-( 

On my spreadsheet I created, I have it going red currently. But both NC and Florida were close enough in 2020 and both went blue for Obama in 2008 and - in Florida’s case - 2012, that I won’t be shocked if they do go blue.

[dulcemariamar]

I obviously want Harris and I think she has done an excellent job the last few weeks. Trump is losing voters and his mind over the fact that he was probably going to beat Biden but now there is a real chance he will lose again and to a woman.

At this point, I would believe anything though. It is a long time until November and desperate times for Trump, means desperate measures.

[icedcoffee]

I refuse to believe anyone but Harris will win.