The beginning of the end of the census

[Deleted]

News Analysis

The Beginning of the End of the Census?

By CATHERINE RAMPELL

Published: May 19, 2012




THE American Community Survey may be the most important government function you’ve never heard of, and it’s in trouble.





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Related

Annual Census at Risk in House Budget Bill (May 11, 2012)



Related in Opinion

Editorial: Operating in the Dark (May 14, 2012)



This survey of American households has been around in some form since 1850, either as a longer version of or a richer supplement to the basic decennial census. It tells Americans how poor we are, how rich we are, who is suffering, who is thriving, where people work, what kind of training people need to get jobs, what languages people speak, who uses food stamps, who has access to health care, and so on.

It is, more or less, the country’s primary check for determining how well the government is doing — and in fact what the government will be doing. The survey’s findings help determine how over $400 billion in government funds is distributed each year.

But last week, the Republican-led House voted to eliminate the survey altogether, on the grounds that the government should not be butting its nose into Americans’ homes.

“This is a program that intrudes on people’s lives, just like the Environmental Protection Agency or the bank regulators,” said Daniel Webster, a first-term Republican congressman from Florida who sponsored the relevant legislation.

“We’re spending $70 per person to fill this out. That’s just not cost effective,” he continued, “especially since in the end this is not a scientific survey. It’s a random survey.”

In fact, the randomness of the survey is precisely what makes the survey scientific, statistical experts say.

Each year the Census Bureau polls a representative, randomized sample of about three million American households about demographics, habits, languages spoken, occupation, housing and various other categories. The resulting numbers are released without identifying individuals, and offer current demographic portraits of even the country’s tiniest communities.

It is the largest (and only) data set of its kind and is used across the federal government in formulas that determine how much funding states and communities get for things like education and public health.

For example, a question on flush toilets — one that some politicians like to cite as being especially invasive — is used to help assess groundwater contamination for rural parts of the country that do not have modern waste disposal systems, according to the Census Bureau.

Law enforcement agencies have likewise used the data to predict criminal activities like methamphetamine production.

Their recent vote aside, members of Congress do seem to realize how useful these numbers are. After all, they use the data themselves.

A number of questions on the survey have been added because Congress specifically demanded their inclusion. In 2008, for example, Congress passed a law requiring the American Community Survey to add questions about computer and Internet use. Additionally, recent survey data are featured on the Web sites of many representatives who voted to kill the program — including Mr. Webster’s own home page.

The legislation is expected to go to the Senate this week, and all sorts of stakeholders are coming out of the woodwork.

“Knowing what’s happening in our economy is so desperately important to keeping our economy functioning smoothly,” said Maurine Haver, the chief executive and founder of Haver Analytics, a data analysis company. “The reason the Great Recession did not become another Great Depression is because of the more current economic data we have today that we didn’t have in the 1930s.”

She added that having good data about the state of the economy was one of America’s primary competitive advantages. “The Chinese are probably watching all this with glee,” she said, noting that the Chinese government has also opted not to publish economic data on occasion, generally when the news wasn’t good.

Other private companies and industry groups — including the United States Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and the National Association of Home Builders — are up in arms.

Target recently released a video explaining how it used these census data to determine where to locate new stores. Economic development organizations and other business groups say they use the numbers to figure out where potential workers are.

Mr. Webster says that businesses should instead be thanking House Republicans for reducing the government’s reach.

“What really promotes business in this country is liberty,” he said, “not demand for information.”

Mr. Webster and other critics have gone so far as to say the American Community Survey is unconstitutional. Of course, the basic decennial census is specifically enumerated in the United States Constitution, and courts have ruled that this longer form of the census survey is constitutional as well.

Some census watchers — like Andrew Reamer, a research professor at the George Washington University Institute of Public Policy — say they do not expect the Senate to agree on fully eliminating the American Community Survey (as well as the Economic Census, which would also be effectively destroyed by the House bill).

Rather, Mr. Reamer suspects, Republicans may hope that when the Senate and House bills go to a conference committee, a final compromise will keep the survey, but make participation in it voluntary. Under current law, participation is mandatory.

If the American Community Survey were made voluntary, experts say, the census would have to spend significantly more money on follow-up phone calls and in-person visits to get enough households to answer.

But Congress also plans to cut the census budget, making such follow-ups prohibitively expensive.

“If it’s voluntary, then we’ll just get bad data,” said Kenneth Prewitt, a former director of the census who is now at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. “That means businesses will make bad decisions, and government will make bad decisions, which means we won’t even know where we actually are wasting our tax dollars.”

[pixy0stix]

I don't even know where to start with this, and I know I can't type all I want int phone. Frankly I'm getting upset that there is a faction of the government that is systematically denouncing ALL scientific data gathering.

[Deleted]

May 20, 2012 10:33:39 GMT -5 pixy0stix said:

I don't even know where to start with this, and I know I can't type all I want int phone. Frankly I'm getting upset that there is a faction of the government that is systematically denouncing ALL scientific data gathering.

That's how I feel. How can you determine policy etc, unless you know what is going on within different pockets of the population.

[UMaineTeach]

yes, let's stop all reliable data collection by the government and just go with our feelings that poor people use drugs, that no one is really poor, and that enough people have access to indoor plumbing.

data, we don't need no stinkin' data.

who needs fact when you have opinion?

[emmybean]

RAGE.

[rex]

So sending me a random and anonymous survey is invasive, but making laws about my uterus isn't? Okay...

[Deleted]

May 20, 2012 10:13:45 GMT -5 @septimus said:

“We’re spending $70 per person to fill this out. That’s just not cost effective,” he continued, “especially since in the end this is not a scientific survey. It’s a random survey.”

In fact, the randomness of the survey is precisely what makes the survey scientific, statistical experts say.

...

Other private companies and industry groups — including the United States Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and the National Association of Home Builders — are up in arms.

...

Mr. Webster says that businesses should instead be thanking House Republicans for reducing the government’s reach.

“What really promotes business in this country is liberty,” he said, “not demand for information.”

1. "Daniel Webster" (and I put that in quotes because the REAL Daniel Webster must be rolling over in his grave) is a Grade A IDIOT.

2. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce opposes this. Hardly a liberal interest group. Newsflash: if you're a conservative who's pissing off the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, there's a 99.9% chance that you're certifiably insane.

[Deleted]

May 20, 2012 11:15:52 GMT -5 @angryharpy said:

May 20, 2012 10:13:45 GMT -5 @septimus said:

“We’re spending $70 per person to fill this out. That’s just not cost effective,” he continued, “especially since in the end this is not a scientific survey. It’s a random survey.”

In fact, the randomness of the survey is precisely what makes the survey scientific, statistical experts say.

...

Other private companies and industry groups — including the United States Chamber of Commerce, the National Retail Federation and the National Association of Home Builders — are up in arms.

...

Mr. Webster says that businesses should instead be thanking House Republicans for reducing the government’s reach.

“What really promotes business in this country is liberty,” he said, “not demand for information.”

1. "Daniel Webster" (and I put that in quotes because the REAL Daniel Webster must be rolling over in his grave) is a Grade A IDIOT.

2. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce opposes this. Hardly a liberal interest group. Newsflash: if you're a conservative who's pissing off the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, there's a 99.9% chance that you're certifiably insane.

so basically you are saying the TN republican party is certifiably insane.... they even managed to piss off the chanber this session with the guns at work bill...

[ladybrettashley]

I can't even tell you how angry this makes me. I personally use the census data every time I move to figure out the best places to live.

It's like these clowns want to cut every program that doesn't fit within their 19th century American world-view. Except the military of course. It would just be crazy talk to consider cutting that.

[aw]

Since I don't believe that the government has any business doing half of what it is doing, I'm fine with not collecting half of the data the census aims to collect.

But I do think that the census is valid for determining an overall "headcount". I think that asking about the number of people in each household is about all that is necessary, along with some identifying information so that we know that people aren't making up their numbers. There has to be a way to do this that is more cost effective.

Random - I just started doing genealogical research for my family tree and the census has been an amazing tool for me to use. Without it I would have lost a huge part of my history.

[heyjude]

May 20, 2012 11:11:27 GMT -5 rex said:

So sending me a random and anonymous survey is invasive, but making laws about my uterus isn't? Okay...

So much this!!

[IIOY]

The census is 100% necessary to getting a snapshot of the state of the US and therefore is invaluable in making various economic decisions. I'm the cheapest human on the face of the planet when it comes to government spending and I absolutely support the census.

Plus, you know, constitutional requirement and whatnot.

[overture]

This pisses me off as a former history major more than anything else.

I LOLed so hard at "it's not a scientific survey, it's a random survey." Adorable.