Yes, Bernie Won Every Poll on the Internet. Hillary Still Won the Debate
Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton take part in a Democratic primary presidential debate in Las Vegas on Oct. 13, 2015. Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Shortly after the first Democratic primary debate ended, I took to the pages of Slate to share what I saw on the CNN stage: Hillary Clinton had won. “Instead of turning in the safe and solid performance she needed,” I wrote, “Clinton was closer to spectacular on Tuesday night.”
Josh VoorheesJosh Voorhees Josh Voorhees is a Slate senior writer. He lives in Iowa City.
It didn’t take long for the dissenting opinions to come pouring into by inbox. Several were nuanced and well reasoned; others … less so. “Hey dumbass,” began the first, “You should be ashamed of yourself you hack!!!” The next was only slightly more measured with its criticism: “How much money were you paid … you either got big bucks to do this article or you have an intellectual issue,” it read. “Are you blind or just bought? Grow a pair and admit the truth,” read another. One industrious reader, meanwhile, sent eight different emails, most of which included graphic photos and all of which came with the prose that matched the tenor of the distinctly un-PC subject line they shared. I could go on, but you get the point.
Advertisement General tone aside, though, several of the messages did pose a question worth addressing: How was it possible that I could declare Hillary Clinton the winner of the debate at nearly the same time so many Slate readers were casting their votes in our online poll for Bernie Sanders?
As of late Wednesday, 75 percent of the roughly 95,000 responses to our “Who won the Democratic presidential debate?” instapoll selected the self-styled democratic socialist as the answer. Hillary, meanwhile, wasn’t even in Bernie’s ballpark. She received only 17 percent of the vote—just 13 points more than Jim Webb, a man whose most memorable moments on Tuesday were complaining to the moderator that he was being ignored and telling the story of the time he killed a man in Vietnam. (Maybe if he had led with the latter, Anderson Cooper would have given him more time.) The results weren’t just unique to Slate: Bernie topped countless other online polls, including those at two other national outlets that had also called the fight for Clinton on their home pages that night—as this semi-viral image illustrated:
So, what gives? Were my fellow journalists and I watching a different debate than everyone else?
Let me start with the polls. As I explained after the first GOP debate when there was a similar difference in opinion between the chattering class and online respondents, instant online polls are informal and unscientific. The results rely on a self-selecting group of respondents with no regard to political affiliation, age, country, or even whether the person doing the responding actually watched the debate. Respondents, meanwhile, don’t have even the slightest motivation to be objective; it’s hard to imagine a Hillary supporter casting an online vote for Bernie or vice versa, regardless of what he or she saw onstage. Like tracking new Twitter followers or Google searches, the online surveys provide an interesting snapshot of the mood of a particular slice of the Internet, but they’re mostly for entertainment (for the reader) and traffic (for the outlet). No one should mistake them for the scientific surveys done by professional pollsters.
They also tend to favor those candidates with active and impassioned fans—something that Bernie’s fundraising numbers and campaign crowds suggest he clearly has in spades. When Slate and a number of other established media outlets declared Hillary the winner, we gave that same fan base—which has long felt, not unjustifiably, that their man’s not getting a fair shake in the media—one more reason to reload the page and vote again. In online polls, like elections, it’s all about turnout. In online polls, unlike elections, you can vote as many times as you want.
Which brings us to what I saw on Tuesday: As I wrote then and still believe now, Hillary was confident, poised, and unexpectedly aggressive. That, I concede, is a subjective opinion—as is any that calls a “winner” in a contest where there is no agreed-on metric to actually score the participants. But it’s also an informed one. She entered the night up nearly 20 points on Sanders when pollsters included Joe Biden in the race, and by even more when they didn’t. In other words, she didn’t need to win converts, only to preach to her choir—and from where I was sitting, she did just that. If absolutely nothing else, her email scandal was effectively eliminated as a primary issue thanks to Bernie’s benevolence—a massive pickup given the topic has been by far Clinton’s single biggest vulnerability this year.
That’s not to say Bernie didn’t fare well himself. He stumbled to explain his gun record, but, as my colleague Michelle Goldberg notes, Sanders didn’t come out empty-handed: He was the one who set the terms for the debate, putting capitalism on the defensive during an event being held by one of the country’s two major political parties in Las Vegas—something that few could have imagined before he jumped into the race. For a man calling for a “political revolution,” it doesn’t get much better than that.
It’s also possible that Sanders will be the long-term beneficiary of the debate, given it was the first time many Democrats got a good, long look at his progressive worldview. Based solely on what I saw on the debate stage Tuesday night, though, Hillary gave the stronger performance. If you disagree with me, well, you have my email address.
I just checked Facebook. Someone shared this article in response to a Berner friend's tinfoil hat posts on this, and his response was "no. time warner won that debate for her."
Berners are evidence that our crumbling education system is impacting the left just as hard as the right.
I'm still a little miffed that I was called out yesterday for criticizing Berners. Read the comments under this story! And really, ANY OTHER STORY about Bernie Sanders.
"#feelthebern" has actually replaced all legitimate conversation!!
My enter newsfeed is filled with Bernie Boners--but to be fair, I live in VT and have very liberal friends, so it is expected.
After the debate all I have seen is "mainstream media is not showing the truth! Bernie won because POLLS!" and it is really frustrating.
For the first time in my adult life, I am truly torn on who to vote for. There are pros and cons to both Bernie and Hillary, and I am truly undecided. I would be happy with either, and would vote for whichever one won the primaries, but I am very torn as to how to vote for the primary (good thing I have lots of time before then!) I went into the debate leaning more towards Bernie but definitely felt that Hillary won the debate and now I am leaning more towards an HRC vote.
My enter newsfeed is filled with Bernie Boners--but to be fair, I live in VT and have very liberal friends, so it is expected.
After the debate all I have seen is "mainstream media is not showing the truth! Bernie won because POLLS!" and it is really frustrating.
For the first time in my adult life, I am truly torn on who to vote for. There are pros and cons to both Bernie and Hillary, and I am truly undecided. I would be happy with either, and would vote for whichever one won the primaries, but I am very torn as to how to vote for the primary (good thing I have lots of time before then!) I went into the debate leaning more towards Bernie but definitely felt that Hillary won the debate and now I am leaning more towards an HRC vote.
I'm sorry but I'm going to need to check you for your time warner microchip.
every time I see a #feelthebern meme in my newsfeed (every 3 stories?) I want to post them all for heyjude. I think your head would explode at all of the bernie boners I see.
Here's another take down. Please share more if you see them!
*****
Why Bernie Fans Are Wrong On Who Won the Debate
OCT 15 Lots of left-liberal, “progressive,” and anti-Establishment Democrats who love Bernie Sanders have been screaming bloody murder because, as they see it, Bernie was declared the winner of the Democrats’ first debate in focus groups and polls but Hillary Clinton was deemed the winner by pundits and commentators of the mainstream media.
What gives? they ask.
Here’s what gives. There is absolutely no evidence that the focus groups put together by CNN, Fusion and Fox included a genuine cross section of Democratic and independent voters or were led by non-partisan professionals. Any seasoned pollster could make a focus group say any damn thing he or she wanted them to say.
The “polls” that are cited are all online “surveys” with self-selected participants who cannot possibly represent a genuine random sample of viewers or voters. Whether on left- or right-wing web sites makes no difference: any group of committed people can control the results of almost any online “survey.”
MSM Not Necessarily Right This is not to say the collective judgment of the media analysts is automatically correct. But given the overwhelming bias against Hillary Clinton most of these same analysts had expressed before the debate, it’s hard to argue they were primed to give her special treatment after the debate.
Clinton’s answers were sharp, her demeanor was poised, she was strong where she needed to be and gentle where it was called for. She showed humor and compassion, wit and wisdom. She was weak on the issue of legalization of recreational marijuana: she should state clearly whether she’s for it or against it. But on every other issue she had a well-defined, arguable position.
One point Sanders made that we’ve not seen discussed was his argument why he believes a democratic socialist (who would be red-baited as a commie in a general election) can win the presidency.
All that matters, he said, is that enough people get out and vote. In other words, if he were the nominee and failed to win it would be the fault of the American people who failed to how up at the polls. But blaming the voters has never been a particularly smart strategy – even if a candidate tries to inoculate himself in advance of what would be, we think, a crushing, perhaps 50-state, defeat.
Many analysts – including Calbuzz – concluded that there was only one candidate in the Democrats’ debate who looked and sounded like a potential president of the United States.
I love that NPR is considered lamestream media by libs now!!!
And what the hell is "US Uncut"? It's always shared by my crazy lib friends (crazy as in no Vax, Hillary is the devil, GMOs will give you the cancer and etc) on FB but as a source I have no idea what this outfit is. I always assumed was an anti circ group. Lol.
every time I see a #feelthebern meme in my newsfeed (every 3 stories?) I want to post them all for heyjude. I think your head would explode at all of the bernie boners I see.
You should!!! I didn't have caffeine today and I need a way to #feelawake.
I'm still a little miffed that I was called out yesterday for criticizing Berners. Read the comments under this story! And really, ANY OTHER STORY about Bernie Sanders.
"#feelthebern" has actually replaced all legitimate conversation!!
"HRC won the debate."
"Nuh uh, #feelthebern"
"Bernie Sanders' record on guns is troubling."
"You are troubling. #feelthebern"
I got a response on FB to the instant poll not being legitimate and scientific that was, "Really, what poll IS scientific." Well, considering my husband is a statistician and gets paid for that shit...
The "what poll IS scientific" tripped this thought.
I bet there is a huge overlap between the granola anti-vaxxers and Berners. This needs to be explored.
Also this thread is hilarious. Except for that damn baby smiling at people learning the message of Bernie. That one is freaking me out.
Anecdotal evidence only: my feed is filled with Bernie-boners but is also extremely pro-vax. So...the super scientific poll of my friends shows that there is not a huge overlap.
I bet there is a huge overlap between the granola anti-vaxxers and Berners. This needs to be explored.
Also this thread is hilarious. Except for that damn baby smiling at people learning the message of Bernie. That one is freaking me out.
Anecdotal evidence only: my feed is filled with Bernie-boners but is also extremely pro-vax. So...the super scientific poll of my friends shows that there is not a huge overlap.
But do you have a lot of anti-vaxxers in your feed?
I imagine there's a big pro-vax community that supports Bernie. But I wonder about the politically liberal anti-vaxxers. I bet they are by and large pro-Bernie.
Anecdotal evidence only: my feed is filled with Bernie-boners but is also extremely pro-vax. So...the super scientific poll of my friends shows that there is not a huge overlap.
But do you have a lot of anti-vaxxers in your feed?
I imagine there's a big pro-vax community that supports Bernie. But I wonder about the politically liberal anti-vaxxers. I bet they are by and large pro-Bernie.
no, not at all. I have one "neutral" vaxxer (aka, anti), and she is a Bernie supporter. But the rest of my friends are all pro-vax (and pro-Bernie).
I would guess you are correct in your hypothesis about liberal anti-vaxxers.
And then there is this one posted by my mom, haha:
Ohmigawd. This was the image shared by a friend that lead to my H getting into a FB "dicussion" with some idiot who claimed that Liberal policies have a track record of pure failure. And cited Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, and Stalin as proof. Hey guys, did you know Stalin was a liberal?! Totalitarianism = liberal. Wut?
eta: for the record, this guy was not a Berner - he was just a wacko (won't even call him Conservative because he clearly doesn't understand what words really mean).
Post by downtoearth on Oct 15, 2015 13:42:05 GMT -5
I have a few Berners in my friends, but most are pretty reasonable and would vote for HRC if she were the nominee. I still haven't talked to all of them after the debate, so I don't know if that changed their mind much and most don't flood FB with their love for Bernie - it's more in person. I don't know. I think both won a little in the debate. HRC won me over, but I was leaning toward her, and Bernie had some good winning moments also. You don't have to hate one to like the other, it's a continuum.
That is where I think the media is failing...maybe the GOP needs to turn people into villians and good guys at war to get a front runner, but I don't think the Dems need or want that. So the media trying to report the two with the same good/bad guy language is ridiculous.
And then there is this one posted by my mom, haha:
Ohmigawd. This was the image shared by a friend that lead to my H getting into a FB "dicussion" with some idiot who claimed that Liberal policies have a track record of pure failure. And cited Mao Zedong, Pol Pot, and Stalin as proof. Hey guys, did you know Stalin was a liberal?! Totalitarianism = liberal. Wut?
eta: for the record, this guy was not a Berner - he was just a wacko (won't even call him Conservative because he clearly doesn't understand what words really mean).
this is the only meme with any politician in it that I fully agree with so far, haha.
Maybe this point has already made but in reading comment section after comment section of Berners (must step away, can't step away!), the comparison is uncanny.