I know we joke, but do you really believe Trump might be impeached by a Republican controlled Congress? Even if all the shit you personally believe is likely to come out about him comes out?
I went with 10-15%. Honestly, I think it's pretty darn unlikely. I just can't see the republicans leading an impeachment effort. But, I bumped my answer up from the less than 5% option because I really just can't understand how they can let him get through an entire term. It's been 27 days, FFS!
Unfortunately no, I don't think it will happen, and even if it does, I don't think he'll be removed. However, this is a situation where I would LOVE to be proven wrong.
For some reason it's not letting me vote tonight, but I think it's unlikely but not impossible. Maybe 5%? Whatever came out would apparently have to be ridiculously bad.
I have no doubt he's done criminal things that would have gotten a D impeached with this Congress.
Not until they have the agenda items done that they're running through him. He's more mealleable then Pence on certain things. He'll sign and jump on his plane for Florida without bothering to know what he's signing. Pence will want to know what is going on. They want to keep their jellyfish in as long as they can so they can repeal as much Obama and put in as much anti-choice, pro-gun anti-Democrat items, plus gerrymandering, as they can get away with.
I voted even odds without knowledge of the 2018 congressional map, so I reserve the right to change my mind. I think we can put up a good fight, but I'm not sure how gerrymandered the map is. I'm ignorantly optimistic today! I think congress is feeling the heat*, and if we can make them feel vulnerable, then it's even odds they jump ship like the rats they are.
* my boss scheduled a meeting during the weekly protest at Cory Fucking Gardner's office and I was so agitated to miss it!
Related: if the Rs in all the states are being bombarded by paid out of town protestors, is the working hypothesis that Money Fairy is paying people from NY to drive to CO and protest Gardner, and CO are paid to go to Florida and protest Rubio? Because that sounds like a sweet deal and I want in! As it is, I take an hour without pay and walk a few blocks,then feed my meter on the way back to work. It's costing me money to protest!
I really have no idea but there seems to have been a shift in the narrative. The media has been searching for a story that will stick for the past 1.5 years. I think they found one. They smell blood in the water and are all coalescing around Russia/Flynngate. That's usually not a good sign. The situation seems unwinnable for Trump. Then again, so did pussygate.
okay :-) This helps me understand the threads on here better.
I'm in the 'not unless we're on the brink of a major and unpopular war' camp. A little 'locker room treason' isn't taking him down. (and I don't see him resigning either)
Impeaching Trump would mean the Republican-led congress blind-siding him with something his administration didn't know they had. I find that highly unlikely.
Trump is the settle-out-of-court-because-that's-not-losing guy. Even if they found something so ridiculously awful that the GOP turned on him, I think he would resign before he'd let himself be impeached.
No. As long as they are getting what they want why would they impeach?
Re-election.
It hasn't even been a month. If I was a soulless GOP congresswoman, I would be cashing in on whatever my heart desired as soon as possible. I won't be surprised if we start to see a bit more spine when the mid-terms begin looming. Not every GOP voter is deluding herself about all this.
Post by sporklemotion on Feb 16, 2017 5:21:04 GMT -5
The only thing that gives me pause is that recent leaks seem to be setting up Pence as the only clean one. When I put on my conspiracy hat, it seems like someone maintained Pence's plausible deniability so that they could put him in once there's too much dirt on Trump to ignore. For no reason other than my gut, I don't fully believe the narrative that he was just not enough of an insider to know this was going on; I suspect he had inklings of it but kept himself (or someone else kept him) willfully ignorant so that someone could be safe from impeachment or firing.
If Trump were smarter or less of a loose cannon, I wouldn't think impeachment would be a worry, but knowing him and his purported micromanaging style, his fingerprints are probably all over something that implicates him too much. If he's called to testify under oath, if he pulls the "these are lies but who's leaking?"he may end up perjuring himself.
To me, part of the question is whether things get bad enough that there has to be an independent 9/11 style commission. If there's enough clamor for it, I think some Republicans will sense that they should go forward with it even if they think it's going to bring the whole thing down.
I don't know enough about Pence's particular agenda to see where he might diverge from the mainstream Republican one-- I know he's super conservative on social issues, but I don't know if there are things that he would be likely to block if a Republican congress tried to push them through. So I'm not sure about the thought that Trump is better for them because he signs stuff without reading it. But I haven't researched him beyond the few key issues that I totally disagree with him on, so there may be something that would cause conflict with Congress.
I said under 5% chance. I don't see the House coming around unless Democrats can retake it.
The thing with Pence is that they're trying to keep him clean - from scandal and from signing massively unpopular legislation. They want to push every awful thing they can in the first two years. If 45 is removed in the second half of his term, Pence can run for President twice. If 45 is removed prior to January 2019, Pence can only run once.
Are they getting what they want? Constantly answering for the President's tweets, EOs, and general asshattery? There's already talk of divisions on the ACA repeal. They're getting hounded by constituents on a daily basis. The WH is a complete mess. Nobody is talking about actual policy.
All of this in the span of one month.
I fully believe they'll eventually turn on him if he doesn't end up getting arrested first.
Post by Velar Fricative on Feb 16, 2017 6:26:22 GMT -5
Even odds. I think they will control Congress for a while and I expect an impeachment at some point later on, not anytime soon. Something will come out that they won't be able to defend without jeopardizing their own reelection chances.
I said 30% but that was before I saw the caveat about a Republican controlled congress. With the Rs controlling both houses I think the chance is very minimal. If Dems win back seats in 2018 then I think the chance goes up.
I think the likelihood of him resigning is greater than the chance of him being impeached.
And I agree with a PP that so much of this scandal is painting Pence in a benign, if not positive, light. "Poor VP! He was so misled by Flynn and then by Trump. He's just trying to do his job and support the president! They lie to him! They left him hanging out there on Face the Nation!" And that's from the media. I think its partially to drive Trump insane - any positive coverage of Pence that comes at his expense is going to do that - and I think it's partially to communicate to the House Rs that this is a Trump issue, not a Republican president issue.
I said under 5% chance. I don't see the House coming around unless Democrats can retake it.
The thing with Pence is that they're trying to keep him clean - from scandal and from signing massively unpopular legislation. They want to push every awful thing they can in the first two years. If 45 is removed in the second half of his term, Pence can run for President twice. If 45 is removed prior to January 2019, Pence can only run once.
This is a very good point. It reminds me in high school, at the height of the Clinton impeachment scandal, when I asked a Republican teacher if she wanted Clinton removed from office. And she said yes, she did, but a "good" Republican wouldn't, because then gore would be president and incumbents are harder to defeat and she thought it would be giving the Dems the 2000 presidential election.
I wonder if there is a similar line of thought taking place now. If Pence becomes president now, he can run in 2020 but that's it. If he becomes president after January 2019 (so maybe after Dems take back some seats?), then he can run twice and the Rs can have 2020 and 2024.
Of course depending on how big the scandals are, Pence may lose his squeaky clean image.
Post by CheeringCharm on Feb 16, 2017 6:54:07 GMT -5
I chose the second option, reasonable odds. Mostly because I think the IC hates him, wants him out, has the goods, and the leaks are only going to get worse for him. Eventually some info will be leaked that can only be taken one way, as with the Flynn case (hell maybe it'll even be something like Flynn flipping and agreeing to testify against him) and even the most spineless Republicans will be spurred to action less they be tarred with the same brush.
Are they getting what they want? Constantly answering for the President's tweets, EOs, and general asshattery? There's already talk of divisions on the ACA repeal. They're getting hounded by constituents on a daily basis. The WH is a complete mess. Nobody is talking about actual policy.
All of this in the span of one month.
I fully believe they'll eventually turn on him if he doesn't end up getting arrested first.
Sure. Supreme Court picks, repeal of Obamacare, tax reform package is supposedly in the works, dismantling agencies...
These are things that they are fine having pushed through without bipartisan support.
They are still rallying around him while these issues are in play. So far phone calls or marches have only mildly encouraged them to pay lip service that they can point to during re-election but the vote was still in party line. If I were them I would say, see I spoke out about my concerns but i respected the right of the president to select his cabinet.
Post by penguingrrl on Feb 16, 2017 7:20:52 GMT -5
I wish it would happen, but don't think it will. I also think he'll never peacefully transfer power to his successor, and most certainly will never resign.
I think it depends on if this stuff sticks to 45 and more keeps coming. And if his crazy amateur WH keeps being totally bananas.
Oh and if Preibus gets pushed out I think it's on like donkey kong. I think he is the glue holding Congress and the president together. If Congress gets louder in pressuring Trump, he's going to get angrier and more insane and will go to war with them. I think without Priebus in the WH, them working together will be impossible. It will just be Bannon and Miller and Agent Orange being vindictive and nuts.
I do think letting Pence, Mattis, et al, choose the replacement for Flynn (and it being Harward) is meant to appease establishment Rs.
As we march closer to the 2018 election and his numbers stay low and fall just a bit, I think we will see Rs get bolder in their criticism if they haven't already. His approval numbers are bad but if you look at some of the other questions they are even worse. Like does he know what he is doing, do other countries respect us. Also while many polls suggest that anyone who identifies as R support him in high numbers, I've seen some rumbling that people who voted for him but are not approving may be identifying as independent and his numbers there are pretty awful. Plus independent voters were part of his win and do vote R - there are very few true independents in voting behavior so those are still voters Rs need to get elected.