Yes I think he will be impeached. I'm not sure why exactly. I just feel like the house of cards is falling down around Trump. There aren't quite as many people sticking up for him and there are more and more people speaking out about his ineptitude. Every day there is a new scandal and I am just not sure he can handle much more.
In my dream world he will be out by summer. Realistically? Maybe it will be my Christmas present in 2018.
Post by Jalapeñomel on Feb 16, 2017 8:34:34 GMT -5
If these investigations yield something serious, I think the republicans will be forced to impeach otherwise risk ruining the integrity of their party (LOFUCKINGL).
Are they getting what they want? Constantly answering for the President's tweets, EOs, and general asshattery? There's already talk of divisions on the ACA repeal. They're getting hounded by constituents on a daily basis. The WH is a complete mess. Nobody is talking about actual policy.
All of this in the span of one month.
I fully believe they'll eventually turn on him if he doesn't end up getting arrested first.
Sure. Supreme Court picks, repeal of Obamacare, tax reform package is supposedly in the works, dismantling agencies...
These are things that they are fine having pushed through without bipartisan support.
They are still rallying around him while these issues are in play. So far phone calls or marches have only mildly encouraged them to pay lip service that they can point to during re-election but the vote was still in party line. If I were them I would say, see I spoke out about my concerns but i respected the right of the president to select his cabinet.
This is right on.
I think the odds of him actually getting impeached are slim to none.
I think its becoming more and more likely, but at this point still a really small chance. Considering how much has come out in less than a month, the probability could increase pretty quickly. It might to a point that even the gop cant ignore it. I hope.
Are they getting what they want? Constantly answering for the President's tweets, EOs, and general asshattery? There's already talk of divisions on the ACA repeal. They're getting hounded by constituents on a daily basis. The WH is a complete mess. Nobody is talking about actual policy.
All of this in the span of one month.
I fully believe they'll eventually turn on him if he doesn't end up getting arrested first.
Sure. Supreme Court picks, repeal of Obamacare, tax reform package is supposedly in the works, dismantling agencies...
These are things that they are fine having pushed through without bipartisan support.
They are still rallying around him while these issues are in play. So far phone calls or marches have only mildly encouraged them to pay lip service that they can point to during re-election but the vote was still in party line. If I were them I would say, see I spoke out about my concerns but i respected the right of the president to select his cabinet.
If things don't seriously escalate, I don't think we'll see meaningful action until after the 2018 elections. It's at that point when:
- power in Congress will potentially flip, allowing Dems to take action without the support of the R's - enough r's will get re-elected and won't have to worry about losing voters in ousting Dumpster - as mentioned, it's at that point that they could possibly get 9-10 years of a President Pence.
However, if the IC continues to be disparaged and ignored, I think it's possible (ok, maybe it's wishful thinking) that there will be a major info dump/leak to hold R's feet directly on the fire. An audio file (Flynn's conversations were recorded, right? Did he flat out say he was calling on behalf of the PEOTUS/or tell them not to worry, Easy D told him to smooth things over?)? Transcript? Financial receipts clearly showing him profiting from relationships from foreign governments?
ETA - If President Bannon really does get to bring in his buddy to purge potential leakers (holy shit that's frightening), that could speed things up. If people think they are going to be fired anyways, what more do they have to lose? The possibility for jail is presumably possible either way, since they've already leaked info...
We were just talking about this last night with my H so this post is really interesting.
His view was that people need to be a lot more forceful in their opposition for it to have any effect, but we're talking daily demonstrations, huge amounts of people, etc.
Honestly, as much as I wish it would happen I very much doubt it ever will (or at least not while it's in the GOP's hands). I don't see them being bothered by the marches and phone calls they've endured so far and I don't see the rallying increasing over time.
The poll won't let me pick but I selected not impossible, but not likely for all the reasons PPs have mentioned. I'm trying to figure out the Pence angle. Was he purposefully kept out of the loop or is all this protesting that he was OOTL to keep him looking pure? IDK.
Let's see how the polls look once they get their tax cuts and SCOTUS pick. My guess is they do nothing with ACA since that seems to be falling into third rail territory more and more.
Funny enough - I was trying to remember how the VP serving out the term and then running for subsequent terms works the other day and meant to look it up.
I think it will take something big, like the Russia accusations (with proof) and leaks keep growing, to actually push Congress to seriously pursue impeachment. They need to start feeling threatened before they'll do anything to him. They care about money and power, if it starts to hurt them they'll try to find a scapegoat and he's such an idiot that it's a perfect out for them. They can lay a lot of the blame at his and his administration's feet.
If the Dems get some control back after midterms we could see something happen then.
My real hope is to see 45 led out of the White House in handcuffs.
I think if impeachment starts to look likely, Trump will resign faster than Nixon.
DH and I were talking about this. We were wondering if maybe Cheeto is too proud/arrogant to resign? He has probably never had any real repercussions for anything in his life, do you think he'd just deny it until the end? To him would "giving up" seem too weak? I would love to see him stick it out for that reason and then get booted and live the rest of his life in disgrace.
I think if impeachment starts to look likely, Trump will resign faster than Nixon.
Really? I think he'll fight it until the very end.
But, maybe you're right. Maybe he'll be like "Yeah, I didn't want this stupid job anyways. SAD!"
I think he'd want to leave in a way that shows him in control and sets him up to start his Trump TV empire that all his loony followers salivate over while he rants all day like the drunk racist uncle he is.
I think if impeachment starts to look likely, Trump will resign faster than Nixon.
I've always thought this too. Then he can spin it that he ended his presidency on his own terms, they talked about impeachment, but it never would have happened, blah blah blah. You know, just like he's positive he would've won the popular vote if only he would have tried. I still don't think he ever wanted the actual job, he just wanted to win. He's done that, so...
ETA: I think one way he would spin it, if he were to resign, is that the fake news/attacks are too much for Melania and Barron and he's resigning for the sake of his family. Then it's on his terms and he'd get to look like the hero family man who gave up the most powerful position in the world just for them. I think he'd have no problem throwing them under the bus.
Really? I think he'll fight it until the very end.
But, maybe you're right. Maybe he'll be like "Yeah, I didn't want this stupid job anyways. SAD!"
I think he'd want to leave in a way that shows him in control and sets him up to start his Trump TV empire that all his loony followers salivate over while he rants all day like the drunk racist uncle he is.
In my fantasy world, he would do this, but still get arrested for treason. Even if he resigns, I can't see people being all "oh, so you're out now, it's all good, never mind!" once the wheels are in motion.
I think it is high unlikely. I think him being a one term president is more likely but still not a guaranteed thing. I think Dems are going to struggle to gain ground in congress in mid-terms which won't help matters.
Post by thelurkylulu on Feb 16, 2017 9:19:29 GMT -5
I do not think he will be impeached because the majority of politicians in this country (both parties) are spineless. They only make big moves when they know they aren't going to be hung out to dry. Getting reelected is more important to them than doing what is right.
Post by CheeringCharm on Feb 16, 2017 9:20:01 GMT -5
The press is doing a good job keeping the pressure on imo. If this happens, credit will have to go to the press and IC for getting the ball rolling although I'm sure the Republican weasels in Congress will try to spin it so they reap any rewards.
Time for Congress to Investigate Mr. Trump’s Ties to Russia By THE EDITORIAL BOARD FEB. 15, 2017
In history, this is where Congress steps in. During the Vietnam War, Watergate and the Iran-contra scandal, when a president’s actions or policies crossed the line, Congress investigated and held the White House to account. The time has come for it to do so again.
In the last week alone, Americans have witnessed the firing of President Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Flynn, and learned with shock and incredulity that members of Mr. Trump’s campaign and inner circle were in repeated contact with Russian intelligence officials.
Coming on top of credible information from America’s intelligence agencies that Russia tried to destabilize and influence the 2016 presidential campaign, these latest revelations are more than sufficient reason for Congress to investigate what Moscow has been up to and whether people at the highest levels of the United States government have aided and abetted the interests of a nation that has tried to thwart American foreign policy since the Cold War.
If 45 is removed in the second half of his term, Pence can run for President twice. If 45 is removed prior to January 2019, Pence can only run once.
I didn't realize this! My thinking has been that impeachment is likely so they can get Pence in, and the sooner they do it the better. A few years of stability would put Pence in a better position for re-election in 2020. But I guess it makes more sense for them to wait 2 years.
I actually think it's becoming more likely by the day. The R's would love to have Pence in charge, they'd still get their agenda through but without all the scandal.
I think if impeachment starts to look likely, Trump will resign faster than Nixon.
DH and I were talking about this. We were wondering if maybe Cheeto is too proud/arrogant to resign? He has probably never had any real repercussions for anything in his life, do you think he'd just deny it until the end? To him would "giving up" seem too weak? I would love to see him stick it out for that reason and then get booted and live the rest of his life in disgrace.
This is sort of my thinking for why he'd resign. He's a narcissist who cares about his reputation, but he's also a coward. He declared bankruptcy rather than actually going insolvent, because he can spin that to protect his ego.
If he resigns, he can claim some bullshit reason ("GOP doesn't really care about America like I do," or "fake news lied about me, but I'm perfect"). If he's actually impeached, especially by his own party, it's a lot harder to spin. I could imagine a life after resignation (he could easily create Trump TV), but post-impeachment there's not much left for him.
I think if impeachment starts to look likely, Trump will resign faster than Nixon.
DH and I were talking about this. We were wondering if maybe Cheeto is too proud/arrogant to resign? He has probably never had any real repercussions for anything in his life, do you think he'd just deny it until the end? To him would "giving up" seem too weak? I would love to see him stick it out for that reason and then get booted and live the rest of his life in disgrace.
Do you really think he understands that resignation is defeat, though? This is a man who thinks that he won court cases that he paid a settlement in order to close them.
If 45 is removed in the second half of his term, Pence can run for President twice. If 45 is removed prior to January 2019, Pence can only run once.
I didn't realize this! My thinking has been that impeachment is likely so they can get Pence in, and the sooner they do it the better. A few years of stability would put Pence in a better position for re-election in 2020. But I guess it makes more sense for them to wait 2 years.
I think Pence is unlikely to be reelected no matter when he would take over. Plus Trump's hardcore supporters will hate Rs for forcing him out if it happens which I think is the main reason most are currently against doing anything. If they force Trump out before getting anything done I think they will have a hard time getting anything done unless they moderate themselves and work with Ds because I think the infighting and jockeying for reelection by voters who love Trump being necessary for many of them to be reelected will be absolute chaos.