WaPo: Are Liberal Arts Colleges Doomed?

[CheeringCharm]

Are Liberal Arts Colleges Doomed?


The cautionary tale of Hampshire College and the broken business model of American higher education


Poll most top educators about their ideal kind of learning for the 21st century, and they’ll probably sound a lot like a Hampshire student. The virtues of open-ended thinking and project-based learning will be familiar to any Washington parent who has toured a bougie preschool. But thanks to a slow recovery from the 2008 recession, rising student debt and class anxiety, parents and students are looking at college less as an intellectual experience and more as an insurance policy — and that calls for colleges that offer proven outcomes, measurable skills or exceptional prestige.


All this means that private colleges like Hampshire are struggling to find enough students able or willing to pay their high sticker prices, and the situation is only likely to get worse. Because of low birthrates following the Great Recession, Carleton College economist Nathan Grawe predicts that the four-year-college applicant pool is likely to shrink by almost 280,000 per class, over four years, starting in 2026, a year known in higher ed as “the Apocalypse.” As youth populations decline everywhere but the southern and western United States, colleges in New England and the Midwest will find it increasingly hard to lure students, particularly those able to pay.

The problem is the business model. Colleges have long counted on wealthy students to subsidize the cost of education for those who can’t afford it. But for many institutions, that is becoming untenable. With only a $52 million endowment, Hampshire is especially vulnerable to this reality, but enrollment experts say it will affect many schools outside the most elite. Schools like Harvard, Princeton, Yale and MIT will be fine, says Jon Boeckenstedt, Oregon State University’s vice provost of enrollment management. “It’s those colleges in the middle of the curve, with good, solid, well-known reputations but not spectacular financial resources or academic reputation, that are feeling the pinch,” he explains.


In May, the Chronicle of Higher Education reported that several private colleges would just miss their enrollment targets this fall, including Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, ranked 35th among national liberal arts colleges by U.S. News & World Report. Also in the spring, the College of the Holy Cross in Massachusetts quietly ended its (increasingly rare) need-blind admissions policy, citing unsustainable spending on financial aid. And after a couple of years of missed enrollment targets and budget shortfalls, Ohio’s Oberlin College will add a business concentration — while trimming 100 students from its prestigious music conservatory and adding more to the college, which draws wealthier applicants. “For some families, college may be the largest investment in their lives. ... What they’re expecting from it is the same type of long-term benefit that you might get from your multiyear mortgage,” explains Oberlin President Carmen Twillie Ambar. “People are asking us to demonstrate the value of liberal arts.”


www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2019/10/21/downfall-hampshire-college-broken-business-model-american-higher-education/?arc404=true

[CheeringCharm]

@@

Looks like the college bubble is finally starting to burst. I was surprised by this news about Bucknell and also that 2026 is known as "the apocalypse." 2026, 2028, and 2030 are when my three kids will be old enough.

[seeyalater52]

CheeringCharm can you @ tag your second post please?

[just]

A weird blip happened in fall 2019. Many colleges - both liberal arts and flagship state schools are seeing an unexpected increase. It’s too early for the nationwide overview, and the analysis, but a lot of us were taken completely off guard this year having expected a decrease and hoping for a plateau.

My institution - we saw an enrollment increase in Non-transfer undergrads (the unicorn segment) while also improving our admit and discount rates.

My DH graduated from hampshire so we’ve been seeing the mess in the alum groups first hand.

[msmerymac]

Yes, I attended a regionally known liberal arts college in the northeast and this is enough of a concern that they are putting it in their institutional plan moving forward.

[pugz]

there are SO MANY liberal arts colleges. I can't imagine how they can be sustained in the long term at this rate. My husband and I both went to private universities but his wasn't a liberal arts college. Mine was a Christian liberal arts one and I think the high amount of student loan debt that many grads have (or low paying jobs like missionaries) is going to hurt alumni giving. They've said that donations from alumni from 2006-2008 are very low due to the recession. And I don't give because of their homophobic and other horrible policies.

[rubytue]

My friends and I often talk about how we were lucky to be GenX for college, because there was less competition. A lot say they wouldn’t get into our alma mater today.

@
Their kids are now having trouble getting into schools that we got into with poorer grades. So those kids in the 2026-2030 cohort many be in a good place to get a leg up during admissions.

[simpsongal]

Oct 26, 2019 11:36:36 GMT -5 rubytue said:

My friends and I often talk about how we were lucky to be GenX for college, because there was less competition. A lot say they wouldn’t get into our alma mater today.

@
Their kids are now having trouble getting into schools that we got into with poorer grades. So those kids in the 2026-2030 cohort many be in a good place to get a leg up during admissions.

the latter is so true. It stinks that I would have had a lower SL interest rate and probably gone to a different law school if I was born at a different time.

data.lawschooltransparency.com/enrollment/all/

[seeyalater52]

Oct 26, 2019 10:48:22 GMT -5 just said:

A weird blip happened in fall 2019. Many colleges - both liberal arts and flagship state schools are seeing an unexpected increase. It’s too early for the nationwide overview, and the analysis, but a lot of us were taken completely off guard this year having expected a decrease and hoping for a plateau.

My institution - we saw an enrollment increase in Non-transfer undergrads (the unicorn segment) while also improving our admit and discount rates.

My DH graduated from hampshire so we’ve been seeing the mess in the alum groups first hand.

I was going to ask how this squares with the article. My alma mater is a small liberal arts college that is in a consortium with Hampshire so there was a lot of anxiety about 2019 acceptance and enrollment and they ended up with a HUGE incoming class. As a women’s college it was also in line with upticks in enrollment and acceptance rates at other Seven Sister schools this year. I agree that it’s likely that the huge number and high tuition of liberal arts colleges will lead to closures over time, but it’s interesting to me to see some of these competing trends, too - not sure if it was a one-time blip or might be an ongoing thing for some schools.

[rosiebear]

@@@


My daughter fell in love with a well-regarded, very small, liberal arts college in the Midwest. There is no way in hell we can afford to pay anywhere near the sticker price, so unless the college is able and willing to subsidize 2/3 of her costs, she cannot attend.

I can’t imagine that’s sustainable in the long run.

[goldengirlz]

One trend that might be moderating the doomsday scenario is the growth of the upper middle class abroad, particularly in places like China. I imagine that many of these LACs will invest more in international outreach since there are more families who can afford to send their kids to American colleges.

[Saudade]

Oct 26, 2019 13:15:06 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

One trend that might be moderating the doomsday scenario is the growth of the upper middle class abroad, particularly in places like China. I imagine that many of these LACs will invest more in international outreach since there are more families who can afford to send their kids to American colleges.

We have one of the top aviation programs in the world. One of the instructors flies for us part time and said that the Chinese students singlehandedly kept the university afloat during the recession. 

He also said that program had 500 incoming freshman this year and they anticipate reaching 2000 in the next several years. That's insane. Plus, it is *SO* expensive. Students have to pay tuition plus ground school/flight time on top of that. 

I went to a public liberal arts school. I don't think my education was anything special. I wish I had more direction, support, and encouragement while I was in school. I had no idea what to expect post graduation, what type of jobs to look for, or what graduate programs to apply for. I was so clueless. The school is going downhill. I am not sure how they'll sustain themselves in a few years. It's in rural MN and not many people are looking to go to college away from everything, where the closest walmart/target is an hour away. 

[tessalb]

I went to a small, LA college in the northeast. About 5 years after graduating, I sat on a panel for parents of interested students. One parent asked how much tuition and room and board were. I audibly gasped when they were told $45,000. $15k higher than when I started. Needless to say, I wasn’t asked back on a panel.

The college has made significant, strategic plans to avoid closing, but in doing so, they are losing some of the liberal arts majors.

As an alum of one of these schools, I really appreciate the share of this article. Thanks.

[brooke77]

Oct 26, 2019 13:15:06 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

One trend that might be moderating the doomsday scenario is the growth of the upper middle class abroad, particularly in places like China. I imagine that many of these LACs will invest more in international outreach since there are more families who can afford to send their kids to American colleges.

This is a good point. Unfortunately, if the immigration policies/attitude of the current administration continues, many qualified foreign students will not pursue higher education in the U.S. Why come to the U.S. if you can’t stay after and work?

[seeyalater52]

Oct 26, 2019 14:40:24 GMT -5 brooke77 said:

Oct 26, 2019 13:15:06 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

One trend that might be moderating the doomsday scenario is the growth of the upper middle class abroad, particularly in places like China. I imagine that many of these LACs will invest more in international outreach since there are more families who can afford to send their kids to American colleges.

This is a good point. Unfortunately, if the immigration policies/attitude of the current administration continues, many qualified foreign students will not pursue higher education in the U.S. Why come to the U.S. if you can’t stay after and work?

Somewhat relevant to my post upthread - my college has had a relatively high proportion of international al students for many years and the alumni groups are FULL of people freaking out that they’re going to need to leave their life in the US behind because it’s so hard to find employment that will sponsor visas, especially in certain industries. The situation is so complicated and often very sad and leads to a lot of extra post-grad education to maintain student status and then often needing to eventually leave anyways.

[brooke77]

Oct 26, 2019 15:01:36 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

Oct 26, 2019 14:40:24 GMT -5 brooke77 said:

This is a good point. Unfortunately, if the immigration policies/attitude of the current administration continues, many qualified foreign students will not pursue higher education in the U.S. Why come to the U.S. if you can’t stay after and work?

I’ve actually heard the opposite — that it’s (somewhat) easier to get a work visa if you’re educated here. I don’t know how much easier but my company deals with a lot of H1Bs and that’s what people have said. If that’s the case, the value of an American degree will only increase.

That’s incorrect. A U.S. master’s or higher gives a person a better chance at being selected in the H1B lottery. It has zero importance in the chance of approval. USCIS is denying about one third of H1Bs so it’s more challenging than ever and many international students, understandably, are not willing to take that risk.

[StrawberryBlondie]

I believe it. I went to a small, private liberal arts college in MN and it's now over $40k/year to go there (it was just over $20k when I graduated). While I loved my time there, it's not like it's Macalester or Carleton, so I'm not sure how they justify it.

[eddy]

I went to a small liberal arts college in Iowa and thrived. I was also poor and paid the same price as state school.  The school is now struggling when it thrived with enrollment in my day.

there are 21 liberal arts colleges in Iowa and 3 state schools. That is not sustainable. The really innovative ones will survive. I don’t know if my alma mater will be one of them sadly. 

[eddy]

And yes tuition, room and board is now 50k when it was less than 20k for me. I have been out for 15 years, so honestly not long enough for it to grow 60%.

[scm1011]

This has been a big story in Boston because 3 of our small liberal arts colleges have collapsed in the last couple years (Mt. Ida, Newbury, Wheelock). BU actually came to the rescue of Wheelock and absorbed them, but the other 2 just shuttered. Its an interesting juxtaposition because some of the big universities (Harvard, BU, Northeastern) are absolutely taking over the city with their expansions.

[calmcosmo]

Oct 26, 2019 13:34:31 GMT -5 tessalb said:

I went to a small, LA college in the northeast. About 5 years after graduating, I sat on a panel for parents of interested students. One parent asked how much tuition and room and board were. I audibly gasped when they were told $45,000. $15k higher than when I started. Needless to say, I wasn’t asked back on a panel.

The college has made significant, strategic plans to avoid closing, but in doing so, they are losing some of the liberal arts majors.

As an alum of one of these schools, I really appreciate the share of this article. Thanks.

I am a school counselor and back in high school after several years in middle. We did a junior work day where students researched colleges and did presentations that included cost. I couldn’t believe how many schools were pushing 70k/year. It was stunning.

[isabel]

I just looked at my and DH's alma mater. Tuition for a full year, taking standard credit hours, and not including housing, meal plan, books, fees, etc. is over $50k (about $51k for the 2019-2020 school year). IIRC, tuition when I started was around $36k (DH just said the same figure). Room and board, brought it to about $40k. I didn't pay that though because I had a sizable scholarship provided by the school. It has increased over 40% since I started attending 13 years ago. That's insane. And, at the time, my mom nearly refused to let me go because of how expensive it was. She and my dad definitely sacrificed to let me attend and I graduated with minimal loans (about $30k).

@@@ A financial advisor once told us to anticipate paying something like $100k per year when our kids are college age. I just refuse to believe that it will get to that point. And if it does, I don't honestly know what we'll do. We don't have $800k to send our two kids to college. It's just insanity how much the tuition prices increase year after year.

[tres3]

Oct 26, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

I just looked at my and DH's alma mater. Tuition for a full year, taking standard credit hours, and not including housing, meal plan, books, fees, etc. is over $50k (about $51k for the 2019-2020 school year). IIRC, tuition when I started was around $36k (DH just said the same figure). Room and board, brought it to about $40k. I didn't pay that though because I had a sizable scholarship provided by the school. It has increased over 40% since I started attending 13 years ago. That's insane. And, at the time, my mom nearly refused to let me go because of how expensive it was. She and my dad definitely sacrificed to let me attend and I graduated with minimal loans (about $30k).

@@@ A financial advisor once told us to anticipate paying something like $100k per year when our kids are college age. I just refuse to believe that it will get to that point. And if it does, I don't honestly know what we'll do. We don't have $800k to send our two kids to college. It's just insanity how much the tuition prices increase year after year.

at what point is the ROI not worth it? Is spending $400k for a degree worth it if it is only going to increase lifetime earnings by $10k/yr vs trade school? 

Would you be better off investing $400k in a kid's business idea instead of college? 

[Jalapeñomel]

Oct 26, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

I just looked at my and DH's alma mater. Tuition for a full year, taking standard credit hours, and not including housing, meal plan, books, fees, etc. is over $50k (about $51k for the 2019-2020 school year). IIRC, tuition when I started was around $36k (DH just said the same figure). Room and board, brought it to about $40k. I didn't pay that though because I had a sizable scholarship provided by the school. It has increased over 40% since I started attending 13 years ago. That's insane. And, at the time, my mom nearly refused to let me go because of how expensive it was. She and my dad definitely sacrificed to let me attend and I graduated with minimal loans (about $30k).

@@@ A financial advisor once told us to anticipate paying something like $100k per year when our kids are college age. I just refuse to believe that it will get to that point. And if it does, I don't honestly know what we'll do. We don't have $800k to send our two kids to college. It's just insanity how much the tuition prices increase year after year.

College will only be for the rich. That’s it. Don’t know what will happen to the rest of them if they choose not
To do trade school, but it’s a bleak outlook on higher education.

[Saudade]

Oct 27, 2019 7:37:46 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

Oct 26, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

I just looked at my and DH's alma mater. Tuition for a full year, taking standard credit hours, and not including housing, meal plan, books, fees, etc. is over $50k (about $51k for the 2019-2020 school year). IIRC, tuition when I started was around $36k (DH just said the same figure). Room and board, brought it to about $40k. I didn't pay that though because I had a sizable scholarship provided by the school. It has increased over 40% since I started attending 13 years ago. That's insane. And, at the time, my mom nearly refused to let me go because of how expensive it was. She and my dad definitely sacrificed to let me attend and I graduated with minimal loans (about $30k).

@@@ A financial advisor once told us to anticipate paying something like $100k per year when our kids are college age. I just refuse to believe that it will get to that point. And if it does, I don't honestly know what we'll do. We don't have $800k to send our two kids to college. It's just insanity how much the tuition prices increase year after year.

College will only be for the rich. That’s it. Don’t know what will happen to the rest of them if they choose not
To do trade school, but it’s a bleak outlook on higher education.

So should we even be saving at this point? I feel like if I’m putting 200-500/month/kid it will never be suficiente but I could put that toward my own student loan, mortgage, travel, etc.

[SusanBAnthony]

Oct 27, 2019 7:40:31 GMT -5 Saudade said:

Oct 27, 2019 7:37:46 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

College will only be for the rich. That’s it. Don’t know what will happen to the rest of them if they choose not
To do trade school, but it’s a bleak outlook on higher education.

So should we even be saving at this point? I feel like if I’m putting 200-500/month/kid it will never be suficiente but I could put that toward my own student loan, mortgage, travel, etc.

@ That's why we aren't saving in a 529. We are saving but if they don't go, we'll use the money for something else.

My dad works in higher Ed and they're seeing drops starting this year. My kids are peak recession so they may benefit from this is less competition to get in, but OTOH tuition may go up.

I think there is value in a liberal arts education but we're not rich enough to pay for that just for the value to society in general. We're much more focused on ROI of the degree.

I think it's sad when these institutions close, but i think it probably needs to happen.

[icedcoffee]

Oct 26, 2019 13:15:06 GMT -5 goldengirlz said:

One trend that might be moderating the doomsday scenario is the growth of the upper middle class abroad, particularly in places like China. I imagine that many of these LACs will invest more in international outreach since there are more families who can afford to send their kids to American colleges.

I did my masters at a very well regarded none liberal arts college and over 50% of the program was students from China. My understanding is that the school loves these students because the government of China pays to send them and they pay full price versus get scholarships. Meanwhile I was there paying only 50%. I’m not sure if any of this is true but I was shocked when I started the program with how many students were from China.

[wildrice]

Oct 27, 2019 7:40:31 GMT -5 Saudade said:

Oct 27, 2019 7:37:46 GMT -5 Jalapeñomel said:

College will only be for the rich. That’s it. Don’t know what will happen to the rest of them if they choose not
To do trade school, but it’s a bleak outlook on higher education.

So should we even be saving at this point? I feel like if I’m putting 200-500/month/kid it will never be suficiente but I could put that toward my own student loan, mortgage, travel, etc.

Although public university education isn't cheap either, I don't imagine it's going to get up to 100k a year for in-state tuition. I wonder if we'll end up consolidating colleges into mostly larger public schools if the smaller ones end up being unsustainable. I don't see college and education going away, and I just don't know how it would work to only allow the rich to even go to public schools - there are more jobs that require higher education than people who could fill them if only the top 10-20%  of the country was allowed to access a degree.

I have nothing against liberal arts degrees, but as a public university graduate spending my career working at public universities - I don't fully understand the need to pay exorbitant prices for what amounts to approximately the same outcome. I have friends and colleagues who went to liberal arts schools AND public universities and we all have ended up with about the same level of success, curiosity about the world around us, etc. The university where I work is hovering at around 10k per year for tuition for in state students right now - I find it hard to believe that the small school charging 5x that much is providing 5x the value or that you are going to have 5x the return on that investment. 

[CheeringCharm]

Oct 26, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

I just looked at my and DH's alma mater. Tuition for a full year, taking standard credit hours, and not including housing, meal plan, books, fees, etc. is over $50k (about $51k for the 2019-2020 school year). IIRC, tuition when I started was around $36k (DH just said the same figure). Room and board, brought it to about $40k. I didn't pay that though because I had a sizable scholarship provided by the school. It has increased over 40% since I started attending 13 years ago. That's insane. And, at the time, my mom nearly refused to let me go because of how expensive it was. She and my dad definitely sacrificed to let me attend and I graduated with minimal loans (about $30k).

@@@ A financial advisor once told us to anticipate paying something like $100k per year when our kids are college age. I just refuse to believe that it will get to that point. And if it does, I don't honestly know what we'll do. We don't have $800k to send our two kids to college. It's just insanity how much the tuition prices increase year after year.

@@@

I've heard the same and I believe it. My alma mater is something like 75k with room and board. I remember tuition being under 30k when I started in 1999.

Like many people on this board, I do believe in the value of a liberal arts education, probably more than the average person. But I don't know that I believe in it to the tune of 100k a year. And certainly not the way my school handled it in the early oughts - "major in whatever you want, don't worry about employ ability, we're teaching you how to *think* which is invaluable and something employers recognize as well (lolol), and you can always go to grad school."

As a consumer, I do see how and why parents' demands have started to increase. If I'm going to hand over 400k, which is a lot of money, I want something pretty close to a guarantee that my kid is going to have a job at the end of it. If not, it's really not worth it imho.

[CheeringCharm]

Oct 27, 2019 6:22:56 GMT -5 tres3 said:

Oct 26, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5 isabel said:

I just looked at my and DH's alma mater. Tuition for a full year, taking standard credit hours, and not including housing, meal plan, books, fees, etc. is over $50k (about $51k for the 2019-2020 school year). IIRC, tuition when I started was around $36k (DH just said the same figure). Room and board, brought it to about $40k. I didn't pay that though because I had a sizable scholarship provided by the school. It has increased over 40% since I started attending 13 years ago. That's insane. And, at the time, my mom nearly refused to let me go because of how expensive it was. She and my dad definitely sacrificed to let me attend and I graduated with minimal loans (about $30k).

@@@ A financial advisor once told us to anticipate paying something like $100k per year when our kids are college age. I just refuse to believe that it will get to that point. And if it does, I don't honestly know what we'll do. We don't have $800k to send our two kids to college. It's just insanity how much the tuition prices increase year after year.

at what point is the ROI not worth it? Is spending $400k for a degree worth it if it is only going to increase lifetime earnings by $10k/yr vs trade school? 

Would you be better off investing $400k in a kid's business idea instead of college? 

Honestly, I think the truth is most likely yes. Assuming they have a good idea.

My husband and I talk about this sometimes because we met at school and we had the traditional liberal arts, residential college experience and we both loved everything about it. But when we went, it was under 35k including room and board and we both had substantial scholarships making it cost even less. We both graduated without loans. 

Although I loved the classes, the lack of course requirements, the breadth of course offerings, the small class sizes, and the professors' ability to give us individual attention, I don't think it is worth 75k a year or more. It just isn't. Especially if you have to take out loans. This trend is such a shame imho because these schools took a really great, wonderful experience that probably changed a lot of people's lives or at least greatly enhanced them and they completely ruined it. I don't think the next generation will get to have what we had and that is sad for them.