Post by Velar Fricative on Oct 14, 2020 8:55:41 GMT -5
I know the House races are less prominent because the Ds are very likely to hold onto the House, but there are still a bunch of competitive House races.
Mine is one of the big tossups this year (NY-11). We were the only R district in NYC up until 2018 and my apologies to everyone in the area getting the attack ads from both sides because they're obnoxious, especially the one from the R candidate with the crazy lady having to get bleeped out. But our incumbent does understand that he needs to be brash in his ads because he certainly knows who lives here. He's ad game has been pretty strong in that regard. His opponent is a perennial election loser with the exception of the state seat she currently holds and I think it will also help the incumbent that his opponent is unlikable even here. There is lots of Trump support here and she was anti-Trump before he won and of course now she's kissing the ground he walks on, but people remember.
My house race is not competitive and I am happy with my rep. I am still considering phone banking for my rep since there was a request put out there for help.
I am writing post cards for a nearby district that is a toss up.
Mine isn't competitive at all. I wouldn't even know it was happening if not for the rest of the election. I just looked her up and she's in her 12th term.
Post by Patsy Baloney on Oct 14, 2020 9:18:44 GMT -5
I doubt mine is competitive, but my neighboring district is the Betsy Dirksen Londrigan/Rodney Davis race. She almost knocked him out last time, and I really hope she can do it this time. If Davis goes down, I feel like my district's rep - another Trump yes man LaHood - will be next. Please, please, please.
So happy that mine isn't competitive and I can be bored with my incumbent running against I have no idea who because it's so boring, and work on other more challenging races this election year. (Suzan Delbene, WA-01.)
Post by StrawberryBlondie on Oct 14, 2020 9:19:25 GMT -5
MN-2.
Angie Craig (incumbent - D) vs. Tyler Kistner (R). It may or may not happen in November - one of the candidates in the race died recently, which per state law means the election moves to a special election in February (and the seat would stay open till after that election). Craig sued saying that conflicts with federal law requiring the election to be in November, and also that it would deprive the residents of representation, and she won. No word yet if an appeal is pending. Interestingly, this is the same argument Norm Coleman made in 2002 when Dems were arguing for a special election after Wellstone's death.
I think it'll be a close race, but I think Craig will win. She hasn't really done anything to make her unpopular with any major bloc. Her opponent's argument for election seems to be "I was in the Marines" and frankly, he just seems a little dumb from the debate I listened to last week.
I hope she wins. She's a good rep and genuinely seems to care about her constituents and has inserted herself into causes that really do benefit the district.
Joe Neguse (CO-2) is up for re-election, and I'm confident that he's going to get it. I just had to look up who he was running against as I had no clue.
VA-6 - Ben Cline. Non-competitive, in a very red area. His policy seems to be to just fall in party line. He's referred to as Bob Goodlatte's clone. Downside is many in this area were Goodlatte fans.
I know there is a D running against him (Nicholas Betts), but I've seen very little signage/outreach/ads. Cline's previous challenger was all over the place and still only won 30% of the votes.
GA-7 We moved last year...used to be in the 6th district. I'm hopeful our race is competitive. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) and Rich McCormick (R). Bourdeaux lost by just over 400 votes in the 2018 midterms. The R incumbent announced his retirement back in Feb.
In and area where the R incumbent is in a virtual tie with a female D challenger. I’ve been writing post cards and advocating as much as I can. The debate was comical. He literally just attacked the “dangerous liberal agenda” over and over and over and she actually talked with substance and intelligence. I hope it matters!
I don't think it is competitive. We have a Democratic incumbent and my area is pretty blue, so it seems unlikely he'll be unseated.
I had to honestly look it up. It's odd, I guess we don't really watch local news but I have heard almost nothing about local races. I looked up the ballot this morning, and there isn't much on it. I think the only decision we really need to make is about school board. There are also 2 ballot measures, but they both seem reasonable to me and have strong democratic support so I presume I'll vote yes. Most other things (and there aren't many) are either clearly partisan or have nobody running against them. Easy.
Mine is slightly competitive but the Democratic incumbent is likely to win.
I looked up the R challenger's website out of curiosity, and it's just a list of his priorities, which are buzzwords like "healthcare" and "homelessness", with no indication of what his positions are on those issues.
@@@@@ Another "priority" is "protecting children". Since he gave zero context, it made me wonder if he's a Qanon supporter.
NC-11. I think that POS Madison Cawthorn is predicted to win, but I can't find much in the way of polls. The district was redrawn so it now includes blue Asheville, but Moe Davis is still the underdog. If you were going by signs in Asheville, Moe would be winning in a landslide. There are Moe Davis signs everywhere!
I think our district might be competitive this year (or more than usual). It's a rural district in WA with an R incumbent. An acquaintance of mine is actually running against him and she is amazing! She doesn't have elected office experience but has a long resume of community involvement and non-profit work.
Post by scribellesam on Oct 14, 2020 10:41:22 GMT -5
CA-50. You may remember us by our former Congressman, convicted criminal and professional bottom-feeder Duncan Hunter. Now it’s dreamy/decent human being Ammar Campa-Najjar versus power-hungry has-been Darrell Issa.
The race is surprisingly competitive, our district is historically very conservative but has been moving more to the left since 2016. The race is basically tied right now. I think Issa was up by one percentage point in a poll last week.
MD-7, formerly represented by Elijah Cummings. The person who replaced him, Kweisi Mfume, actually held the seat prior to him as well.
His opponent has gotten some coverage because she is a young Black woman who loves Trump but she has no chance in hell of winning. 538 expects him to win by 20 points minimum.
OK-5, extremely competitive. Held by a first-term Dem, It quite possibly may go back to the Republicans.
In 2018, Rep Horn beat the incumbent R, who really didn’t try very hard, TBH. Her opponent this time is a popular female State Senator who has a lot of backing from so-called “progressives” because she helped push through our new liquor laws that allow us to buy wine in grocery stores. She has fully embraced Trump, so I hope that hurts her among some of those who thought she was cool. The District covers the progressive/liberal parts of OKC, but also the suburbs, and some rural areas.
NY-4. The R challenger is crazycakes. He sent out a letter a couple weeks ago detailing his anti-vax and 5G conspiracy theories. So, yeah. Thankfully he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.
Neighboring district where I used to live and where ILs currently live is more interesting. NY-1, Lee Zeldin is the incumbent and an awful Trump sycophant. Challenger is Dr. Nancy Goroff, former chair of the chemistry department at Stony Brook University. She's worked on green energy for like 30 years. It's a dead heat and I've done some postcards, texting, and donated a bunch. I'm dying for her to win.
Mine is Adam Schiff. His opponent is Eric Early who has a few billboards up with side by side pictures of a police car on fire and I presume Eric Early, conversing with the police. On the picture of the police car on fire it says “Adam Schiff defunds” and the other picture says “Eric Early defends”. It’s so strange because the places where I have seen the billboards are bastions of liberalism.
NC 12 -- dem incumbent, running unopposed. Not surprising we are an urban district.
I live in an urban district and we have a challenger this year for our house member. They appear to be running on a very pro-policing which isn't really a federal issue but would motivate some folks here.
GA-7 We moved last year...used to be in the 6th district. I'm hopeful our race is competitive. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) and Rich McCormick (R). Bourdeaux lost by just over 400 votes in the 2018 midterms. The R incumbent announced his retirement back in Feb.
Post by formerlyak on Oct 14, 2020 11:25:54 GMT -5
ny96 I read Early's website because I was curious about Schiff's opponent. Apparently he is going to end homelessness (don't we all want to do that?) and stop the liberal indoctrination in schools. He's ... interesting.