North Korea has me hand wringing.

[gretchenindisguise]

Do people still think it's all for show? A puffer fish puffing but really harmless?

worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/03/17580610-north-korea-blocks-south-from-shared-kaesong-zone-as-crisis-deepens?lite

[angelaa73]

See all the jets scrambling this week?

Get ready.
sent from my I crashed my car into a bridge. I don't care. I love it.

[pantsparty]

I just don't know how far they can go without resources. I read somewhere if they went into full-blown war mode, they'd be out of gas in 30 days.

[gretchenindisguise]

Apr 3, 2013 12:20:48 GMT -5 angelaa73 said:

See all the jets scrambling this week?

Get ready.
sent from my I crashed my car into a bridge. I don't care. I love it.

Yup, and Navy ships be rerouted to that area.

[joshlyman]

I'm not terribly worried. They do this every time S. Korea elects a new president. It's just more over the top this Tim since the new dear leader wants to pretend he has balls. N Korea knows they would be annihilated if they did anything. Even their ally China wouldn't back them up.

[Deleted]

Yeah I'm pretty worried too.

[bcv513]

It scares the crap out of me. Didn't they say their nukes could reach Hawaii?

[gretchenindisguise]

Apr 3, 2013 12:21:34 GMT -5 pantsparty said:

I just don't know how far they can go without resources. I read somewhere if they went into full-blown war mode, they'd be out of gas in 30 days.

Ok, well that's a good thing.

I wonder if they'd just put it all on black though. One big bang.

[spitforspat]

North Korea is fucking crazy.

[cc]

I am worried. I'm not as afraid of NK being able to send a bomb over here, but I am definitely worried of the domino effect it could have with other countries getting involved should a war start.

[gretchenindisguise]

Apr 3, 2013 12:24:55 GMT -5 joshlyman said:

I'm not terribly worried. They do this every time S. Korea elects a new president. It's just more over the top this Tim since the new dear leader wants to pretend he has balls. N Korea knows they would be annihilated if they did anything. Even their ally China wouldn't back them up.

It could very well be that I just wasn't paying enough attention last time S. Korea elected their president. I've read this to be true, it just feels different this time. I guess I'm worried he's crazy enough to just go balls to the wall even though death is imminent.

[kcr1972]

Apr 3, 2013 12:24:55 GMT -5 joshlyman said:

I'm not terribly worried. They do this every time S. Korea elects a new president. It's just more over the top this Tim since the new dear leader wants to pretend he has balls. N Korea knows they would be annihilated if they did anything. Even their ally China wouldn't back them up.

Its been said china says they won't back them up but they will. They don't want the us to be at their back door.

[kcr1972]

N korea would be wiped out in 72 hours according too what I read

[joshlyman]

Apr 3, 2013 12:28:00 GMT -5 gretchenindisguise said:

Apr 3, 2013 12:24:55 GMT -5 joshlyman said:

I'm not terribly worried. They do this every time S. Korea elects a new president. It's just more over the top this Tim since the new dear leader wants to pretend he has balls. N Korea knows they would be annihilated if they did anything. Even their ally China wouldn't back them up.

It could very well be that I just wasn't paying enough attention last time S. Korea elected their president. I've read this to be true, it just feels different this time. I guess I'm worried he's crazy enough to just go balls to the wall even though death is imminent.

He's crazy - but he is also educated. (Went to college in Europe). I don't think he is that stupid. They have to keep the people scared of eminent attack to keep them in line. It IS scary, don't get me wrong, but I have read enough expert opinion over the last week that it calmed my nerves

[joshlyman]

Apr 3, 2013 12:29:40 GMT -5 kcr1972 said:

Apr 3, 2013 12:24:55 GMT -5 joshlyman said:

I'm not terribly worried. They do this every time S. Korea elects a new president. It's just more over the top this Tim since the new dear leader wants to pretend he has balls. N Korea knows they would be annihilated if they did anything. Even their ally China wouldn't back them up.

Its been said china says they won't back them up but they will. They don't want the us to be at their back door.

They don't want a war - it would kill their economy. They would shut N Korea down. At least that is what the people on NPR tell me lol

[kcr1972]

Either way I will admit I am scared out of the possible outcome. The military is huge and so brainwashed its scary to think of whay they would do.

[joshlyman]

Apr 3, 2013 12:33:21 GMT -5 Lucy Honeychurch said:

I'm not overly worried, though I think the level of caution is justified.

The threat isn't to the mainland US; it's to South Korea and Seoul. The posturing on the part of North Korea is largely rhetoric and most of it is a show of strength meant to be used as propaganda for the North Korean people.

Bear in mind that if North Korea fired any kind of long-range missile towards the US, we'd blow that shit out of the sky before it even crossed the fucking dateline.

And if it comes to that, every country on the planet will want to destroy North Korea. China, their most valuable and powerful ally, doesn't even want to enter the fray on this one; China exports a shitload of goods to the US, and additionally doesn't want to deal with the humanitarian crisis they'd have on their hands if we bombed the shit out of North Korea.

That said, China's main interest is in maintaining the status quo. They don't want us to bomb the fuck out of Korea, either, because we'd re-establish a democratic, pro-US government in the wake of the destruction that would be a threat to them.

All of which is to say, North Korea's ultimate best interest lies in grandstanding and then settling the fuck down, which is what I suspect they'll end up doing.

You said it much better than me

[joshlyman]

Apr 3, 2013 12:35:14 GMT -5 @scottydeux said:

I looked at the slideshow of pics of North Korean life. They have pop-up books showing American soldiers killing their people. Kids books. Not that our society doesn't whitewash the hell out of history. This just seems more threatening/intense.

The best book I read last year was Nothing to Envy - it is all first hand accounts of life in N Korea by people who have escaped. The propaganda there is intense, as is the complete and total lack of any outside influence. Super interesting book for anyone who likes that kind of stuff.

[kcr1972]

The propaganda is unreal. Huge billboards at the dmz facing the south. I have pics around here somewhere.

[azurely]

The domino effect is my fear too. I'm not worried about what NK could do, because realistically they don't have enough resources to do much damage. But they could spark a nuclear war, and if China gets involved, hello WW3.

[softspot]

I'm selfishly worried because my husband has only been out of the MC for 1.5 months. One of my biggest worries is that he'll be recalled. We'll manage & make it work, but I don't want to.

[shoeless]

Apr 3, 2013 12:33:21 GMT -5 Lucy Honeychurch said:

I'm not overly worried, though I think the level of caution is justified.

The threat isn't to the mainland US; it's to South Korea and Seoul. The posturing on the part of North Korea is largely rhetoric and most of it is a show of strength meant to be used as propaganda for the North Korean people.

Bear in mind that if North Korea fired any kind of long-range missile towards the US, we'd blow that shit out of the sky before it even crossed the fucking dateline.

This.  I'm honestly not worried about NK, I believe it to be a lot of grandstanding.

[winston]

I agree with Lucy that the greater concern is to South Korea. The DPRK's missiles haven't proven themselves capable of long range flight and they're being watched like hawks. The US is not getting bombed by North Korea.

But Seoul is only an hour away from the DMZ. Things are heating up under Kim Jong Un and the country is in horrible shape internally. In the past year the population has dropped at an alarming rate due to starvation and mudslides (according to DPRK watchers, the official position from North Korea doesn't acknowledge this). They aren't receiving the same kind of aid they once were and they're completely dependant on help from outside since they completely destroyed their own resources. But they prioritize Pyongyang and the military for appearance, and that military is pretty incredible. But I don't believe they have it in them to wage a full war and I don't believe that any legitimate country with any legitimate strength would back them. It's in no one's interest to support a war on the Korean peninsula.

And the U.S. already has a very strong presence in South Korea because of the Korean conflict. I don't think that the risk of the U.S. being a tiny bit closer would be enough for China to support the DPRK. Yes, North Korea is connected by land to China, but realistically that wouldn't give the U.S. any greater advantage. There's next to nothing in that part of China and the Chinese military presence at Dandong is already pretty strong. China would be in a better position to quash the North and build a stronger relationship with the rest of the world (except Myanmar, who considers themselves an ally of the DPRK. But come on. Myanmar).

So that's a lot of words to say that Jong Un is kind of a wild card so the risk for escalation is there, but I don't think it's likely that it would extend outside the Korean peninsula. I think that if Jong Un started something it may very well be the end of the DPRK once and for all. I don't know what would happen to it then - reunification or takeover from another nation. But I don't think the world would allow Jong Un to strike and then keep an autonomous North Korea.

ETA: I do think that South Korea needs to be on guard right now. They're in range of someone very unpredictable.

[CurlyQ284]

I am nervous. I talked about it with DH, he said he saw interviews of people in SK just la-di-da going about their day. They said NK always acts like this so they just go about their business. I don't know enough about NK to know whether this guy would really start a war or not so I'm going to wring my hands until an outcome is apparent.

I did see some of the propaganda. They showed a video that was like "All Americans live in tents. See this guy? He is proud of his tent, it has a cardboard roof.". I don't known where the footage came from but it was a bunch of people living in tents in what looked like a disaster area, maybe from the hurricanes or tornadoes last year? It was batty.

[pantsparty]

Everyone should read Nothing to Envy for perspective on North Korean propaganda and their economic state. It is very eye opening. It's hard for me to take any threat of theirs seriously knowing they simply don't have the economy for a war. It's probably a way to rile up the masses and keep them in a fervent state of patriot duty. But, North Korea is also crazy. So there's that.

[winston]

Apr 3, 2013 12:59:16 GMT -5 Lucy Honeychurch said:

winston, I agree; and that's why I think Jong Un isn't that stupid. I don't think he'll really engage, because to engage would be to bring on the destruction of the country and his own cult of personality.

This is what I'm thinking, too. My only concern at this point is that I don't know how much of his only Family Kim Kool-Aid he's been drinking. I think that he's had enough exposure to the outside world to know better than to jeopardize his own seat of power. But I would also think that he should know enough not to posture like this. It always damages relations and jeopardizes aid, so his country suffers every time the leader plays these stupid little stunts. I don't know what he's doing and it's this current behaviour that has me wondering what's going on there.

But he would absolutely be stupid to follow through on his threats. When Jong Il was doing it I really thought that he was just finally losing it in his failing health, but Jong Un doesn't have that excuse. I think that the south was in greater danger when Jong Il was still alive, though. 

Gah, this whole mess. 

[cc]

Another thing that worries me is that, yes, they have made these same statements before, but were they as close to having a nuclear weapon as they are now?

[luckyval]

Apr 3, 2013 13:05:07 GMT -5 pantsparty said:

Everyone should read Nothing to Envy for perspective on North Korean propaganda and their economic state. It is very eye opening. It's hard for me to take any threat of theirs seriously knowing they simply don't have the economy for a war. It's probably a way to rile up the masses and keep them in a fervent state of patriot duty. But, North Korea is also crazy. So there's that.

Valid points

The latter point being compounded with the fact that Kim Jogn Un is the new dictator on the block and wants to solidify his true crazy is what worries me. The initial actions could very well be devestating, but they can't sustain a war

[shoeless]

*wrong thread*

[fuckyourcouch]

Apr 3, 2013 13:30:00 GMT -5 shoeless said:

I like the last look and I like the gray skirt with the pink top (and a different shoe). I don't think either skirt needs to be retired!

i cannot stop laughing